Hurricane Maria - Sept 2017

[Henry2326]

NHC 5:00 Update: 120 mph and 952 mb. The NHC cone has an outer edge along the coast of North Carolina and turns the cone out to sea.

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http://spaghettimodels.com

 

[Henry2326]

The overnight models continue to push the system west due to weakening of Jose and weak steering currents as Maria finds her way Northward.

The question will be "how far west"? The first pic shows 3 different viable proposals for westward push.

http://spaghettimodels.com

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[JerseyGirl]

That cone and spaghetti keeps pushing west and more north!

Tropical Depression Lee has formed in the Atlantic.

We can't seem to catch a break.

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[Henry2326]

That cone keeps pushing west and more north!

Tropical Depression Lee has formed in the Atlantic.

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By Tuesday, it should hit colder water and wind shear....hopefully will take away her punch...still cat1/2.

Canadian models are holding with their forecast of several days with a more westward inundation and running it up the coast. GFS is now following more inundation at North Carolina.

The Canadian model was the lead model to shift Irma also. IMO

None of the models show development of Lee at this time.

But they do show possible development of other canes. October is going to be a long month.....


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[Henry2326]

NHC Update 11:00:

"11am NHC track update. Mentions Carolina/Mid-Atlantic could see TS/Hurricane Watches posted tomorrow. Talks on slowing and westward bump feeding more into Gulf Stream than Jose's wake. But shear and upwelling of cool waters can help decay. Some weakening still officially expected. Talks about new track not as far west as GFS/UK/EURO. IMO if afternoon runs continue the west trend we will see cone bumped more west at 5pm.*www.spaghettimodels.com*/ Mikes Weather Page APP"

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[Henry2326]

NHC 5:00 Update:

115 mph winds and 950 mb pressure. Pressure has actually dropped (not good). Most thought it was going go up because of colder water and wind shear.

Jose is done.....watching to see if she gets boxed in between the high ridges. If so, we will have landfall rather than grazing.

I can't wait to see this hard right turn.....nope, we're not talking about Irma. There is a hard right turn in the forecast for Maria. I'm praying that happens....if you are North Carolina or north, please continue to watch and plan.

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[Henry2326]

The National Hurricane Center warns the storm is marching toward the US East Coast.

"It becoming increasingly likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the coast next week," the National Hurricane Center said in an*advisory on Saturday. "Interests in the Bahamas and along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria."

[video=cnn;us/2017/09/20/hurricane-maria-damage-sg-orig.cnn]http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/23/americas/hurricane-maria-east-coast/index.html[/video]

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[Henry2326]

Jose is dead and won't be doing any dancing with Maria.

This image depicts the possible implications if Maria is boxed in.

The lines marked "stop" are the high ridges that WILL guide her motion. The box called "track box" is the current forecast guidance.

The gold and pink squiggly lines give you an idea of the possible space that Maria will take over if she is boxed in

IMO

http://spaghettimodels.com

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[Henry2326]

Philip Klotzbach*

*[emoji818]@philklotzbach

The 2017 Atlantic TC season has now generated 17.75 major hurricane days-more than what occurred in entire 2005 Atlantic season (17.5 MHD).

http://spaghettimodels.com

IMO....2005 was a bad year for hurricanes....

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[Henry2326]

This is a shot I took from Tropical Tidbits video from Friday night with Levi Cowan. It shows the cooling water temps as Maria makes her way Northward. Jose churned up the water quite a bit and brought cool water to the surface. Hoping it takes some sting out of Maria...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
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[Henry2326]

"Tonight's plate of spaghetti... Maria expected to slow down before she gets picked up by an approaching front later in the week. How far west towards the coast a big question.

Still very healthy tonight. Hurricane Hunters are in now and looks like pressure down to 946mb."


www.spaghettimodels.com*/ Mikes Weather Page APP

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[Spellbound]

It seems Maria just won't give up. Is it normal for a storm like this one to last this long? It seems especially long in endurance. But I know very little about hurricanes ... Henry, you are such a good help here.

 

[JerseyGirl]

NWS warned that beaches in southeast South Carolina and Georgia will see dangerous rip currents through early Sunday night, and issued a high surf advisory from 8 a.m. Sunday to 8 p.m. Monday.

Forecasters expect breaking waves of 5-7 feet.

TWS also warned that structures like piers and jetties will be particularly dangerous.

Charleston, however, should expect clear weather in the coming days.

http://www.postandcourier.com/news/...cle_83c9b190-a0a0-11e7-921b-23794ee23cfb.html

 

[JerseyGirl]

The forecast track for Hurricane Maria shifted closer to the Outer Banks and the Hampton Roads [Tidewater, Virginia] area Saturday.

It's becoming increasingly likely that direct impacts will occur along parts of the East Coast next week.

There may be tropical storm or hurricane watches posted for areas on the coast on Sunday, officials said.

https://pilotonline.com/news/local/...cle_8ad8d392-28c2-520e-8bc6-df426d9808b9.html

 

[MelmothTheLost]

At least 30 Britons remain missing after Hurricane Maria devastated parts of the British Virgin Islands

Dozens of British nationals who were in the Caribbean when Hurricane Maria hit last week are still missing.

Victor Williams, 61, his wife Yvonne, and father Joseph are among the long list of British nationals who are still unaccounted for following the storm, which has killed at least 30 people.

The couple had just moved to the island of Dominica last month, and Victor's daughter, Candice Garrett, 38, from Stoke Mandeville, Buckinghamshire, said she hasn't heard from them in a week.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4914304/At-30-Britons-missing-Maria-s-wake.html

I'm not suggesting that Brits are more important than anyone else who is unaccounted for, but this gives us an idea of how many people of all nationalities are missing in the region.

 

[Henry2326]

NHC 5:00 Update: Maria is 948 mb pressure and 110 mph. Despite forecast that she would submit to wind shear, she has actually re-gained strength. We will see if she can withstand cooler waters in the coming days. IMO

http://spaghettimodels.com

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[Henry2326]

"This AM spaghetti models. Light pink are EURO ensembles... light grey GFS. As Maria slows definite spread in thinking where she drifts too before a front comes later in the week taking her NE. NHC notes TS/Hurricane watches could be posted today. *www.spaghettimodels.com*/ Mikes Weather Page APP"

IMO.....they don't know yet if its a grazing or a landfall. Averages and means just don't work well when estimating where a hurricane is going to land. .

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[Henry2326]

It seems Maria just won't give up. Is it normal for a storm like this one to last this long? It seems especially long in endurance. But I know very little about hurricanes ... Henry, you are such a good help here.

Thanks Spell- you are a good help everywhere you go. Thanks for your calming words on the Holly Bobo board. People get more passionate about legal stuff than they do weather....lol

I think it seems longer because we are paying attention for a longer time. Its been 12 years since we had a year like this one.

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[Bently]

Archangel85... we are thinking of you! Last post was 11:20 last night, and last log in here at WS was 11:33 pm yesterday/last night.

raying: that you and yours are ok!

:waiting: and raying: on Angel

 

[JerseyGirl]

The National Hurricane Center said in its Sunday morning update that residents in the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic coasts should watch the progress of Maria.

The NHC has not issued any coastal watches or warnings yet but said it may need to issue tropical storm or hurricane watches for a portion of the Carolinas or Mid-Atlantic coasts on Sunday.

Maria will move north through Wednesday or Thursday, and now appears likely to move close enough to the Outer Banks of North Carolina to bring some impacts, there, as well as parts of the Virginia Tidewater and perhaps the southern Delmarva Peninsula.

Maria is carrying sustained winds up to 68 mph and generating large swells along portions of the southeastern coast of the United States and Bermuda. Those swells will hit the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday and “are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions."

Late this week, that blocking high aloft will weaken considerably, giving way to a return of the jet stream that will finally carry Maria away into the northern Atlantic Ocean.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-maria-us-east-coast-forecast

Maria is on track to pass within 150 miles of the Outer Banks and it's possible it could “wander far enough west to make landfall on the Outer Banks.” The weather website says Maria will likely weaken to a Category 1 hurricane.

NWS issued a high rip current risk from 8 a.m. on Sunday through the evening for the entire coastline in New Jersey. But the threat of dangerous rip currents will likely loom for most of the upcoming weeks.

http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/09/hurricane_maria_to_bring_large_waves_life-threaten.html