IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #12

[Pensfan]

BBM, I find this so interesting. The last sighting was 12:15 on Brovan, caught on CCTV. I think the girls were abducted soon after, I do not think they went to the lake after that.

Yep, if the victims are usually abducted from when they were last seen, that might be the Brovan area. What is over near Brovan that would have helped a child abductor quickly grab two girls without being witnessed? Is that a desolate area with little traffic?

I wish we knew if the girls had visited the lake bike trail before or if any of their sightings at the lake on 7/13 are "verified". The search dogs might have hit on an old scent.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Since I haven't posted any new theories for a couple days, I think it's time to try something a little different...

Since LE hasn't actually confirmed that the bikes that TG saw did belong to the girls, and it sounds like they may not have been in the same place as the girls' bikes were found, it is possible that they belonged to someone else.

If a couple of kids were out there (a study I read once years ago stated that boys are more likely to just drop their bikes on the ground than girls are. Girls are more likely to use the kickstand or lean it against something), they may have been messing around in the woods and seen something interesting. If they left the lake area and ran into the girls, they could have told them about whatever it was. If the girls were curious enough, they may have gone out there to have a quick look, thinking they'd be back before WC had to leave.

If they left their bikes at the gate and went to look at whatever it was, they may have been spotted. It's possible that Elizabeth got close to the gate before she was caught, and droppped her purse when she was grabbed. Lyric could have been grabbed anywhere along the way since there's nothing to indicate where it may have happened. If there was a vehicle parked back there somewhere, the girls could have been taken to it then and driven out.

I know that's a lot of ifs, and would mean that 2 young boys have been able to keep their mouths shut about whatever it was for this long. IF it happened this way, it could just be that the boys are afraid to say they had been there - maybe because their parents didn't allow them to go there alone and/or they're afraid whoever grabbed the girls would go after them if they knew they'd been there.

Not accurate...Sandy Breault, FBI

“There was a gentleman who regularly runs around the lake. He didn’t see either one of the girls ... but he did see their bikes and he was able to pinpoint the time of the day that he saw the bikes. Small details like this are really important to the investigation,” she said.

http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_507d9bca-d2b1-11e1-8f0b-0019bb2963f4.html

 

[CHERIE.T]

The name of the killer is “likely to be in the investigative file within the first week” of the murder investigation—often during the neighborhood canvassing stage—and that half the time, police had contact with the killer well before they first suspected him of being involved.

One of the more sobering statistics was the fact that in 34.7 percent of these child abduction murders, the police still had no primary suspect a month later.

Child abduction killers prefer to dispose of bodies in rural areas 53 percent of the time. Child abduction killers attempted to carefully conceal the victim’s body in 55 percent of the cases studied. In a quarter of the cases, police found evidence “deliberately discarded” by the killer within one mile of the body.

A good 36 percent of killers deliberately left the body in another jurisdiction (or county) from where the child was abducted, perhaps to hinder the investigation by creating a scenario in which coordination of services between counties would be required.
http://thealphabetkiller.com/portrait-of-a-child-abduction-murder/

Thanks so much for your informative post.

 

[elmomom]

Something I have noticed, sometimes think it is my imagination, sometimes not, is that there seems to be an ever so slight difference in what the FBI say/thinks/wants us to think than what the local PD says/thinks or wants us to think. I can tolerate different styles, but if this is a hint that the two agencies are not functioning well as a team (as is often the case when the FBI steps in to a "local" case) I would be extremely upset. I believe that there is little or no hope of solving this case unless the local PD and the FBI work together.

 

[CHERIE.T]

bbm
The name of the killer is “likely to be in the investigative file within the first week” of the murder investigation—often during the neighborhood canvassing stage—and that half the time, police had contact with the killer well before they first suspected him of being involved.
http://thealphabetkiller.com/portrait-of-a-child-abduction-murder/

Do you have any idea who the last person was who was confirmed
of seeing the girls alive? (Just a generic question.)
Wasn't it the bike riding man with the strange name?
Wonder if anyone else has come forward and claimed to see the
girls on the bike trial.

 

[otto]

Not accurate...Sandy Breault, FBI

“There was a gentleman who regularly runs around the lake. He didn’t see either one of the girls ... but he did see their bikes and he was able to pinpoint the time of the day that he saw the bikes. Small details like this are really important to the investigation,” she said.

http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_507d9bca-d2b1-11e1-8f0b-0019bb2963f4.html

Does that mean that there's another witness that reported directly to police rather than via facebook? We've heard about a cyclist (first posted on facebook), but unless the FBI is getting their words mixed up, it sounds like there was someone else that runs the trail that saw the bikes in the location where they were found.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Hi all! I'm new here and have been trying to follow this case as closely as I can. I'm so impressed with everyone's sleuthing skills and ability to keep all of these details straight! You all are amazing.

I have a question. I seem to recall that there was a raid at a home, but then never heard anything after that. Does anyone have any information about this?

Thanks!

There's been a lot of stuff on fb but it's against :tos: to discuss here...I heard there has been quite a few raids but nothing's in the media.

It's sad when people think the investigations gone cold so quickly, when it's actually in its early days. I believe this one will be solved.

lease:

:moo:

 

[Pensfan]

Where the girls were last seen (on video):
http://maps.google.com/maps?client=...&sa=X&ei=1IAcUKs3wdbRAb2ogIAL&ved=0CAgQ8gEwAA

Two RSOs with crimes against children live on Marshal Ave.
http://www.city-data.com/so/so-Evansdale-Iowa.html

I wonder if either of these two guys shopped at the Lederman's Big and Tall store next to Elizabeth's house. Hmmm. S. P Bass is 6 foot and 350 lbs.

 

[katydid23]

Do you have any idea who the last person was who was confirmed
of seeing the girls alive? (Just a generic question.)
Wasn't it the bike riding man with the strange name?
Wonder if anyone else has come forward and claimed to see the
girls on the bike trial.

The man [tim gamerdinger] never actually saw the girls. He said he saw their bikes. The last reported sighting was by Grandma, when she is said to have seen them in the parking lot area by Lizzie's house.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Where the girls were last seen (on video):
http://maps.google.com/maps?client=...&sa=X&ei=1IAcUKs3wdbRAb2ogIAL&ved=0CAgQ8gEwAA

Two RSOs with crimes against children live on Marshal Ave.
http://www.city-data.com/so/so-Evansdale-Iowa.html

I wonder if either of these two guys shopped at the Big and Tall store next to Granny's house. Hmmm. S. P Bass is 6 foot and 350 lbs.

Robert Carpenter may have been the last actual person to see them but he's unclear as to time.

:moo:

 

[Dr. Know?]

Okay, after this post, I'm done with white vans. Latest white van info.

Adam Amdor ‏@AdamKWWL7
DOT tells me there are 143 white Chevy Astro vans, (all model years) registered in Black Hawk County. #FYI #EvansdaleSearch

https://twitter.com/AdamKWWL7

But what about Astro's look alike the GMC Safari.

 

[elmomom]

Do you have any idea who the last person was who was confirmed
of seeing the girls alive? (Just a generic question.)
Wasn't it the bike riding man with the strange name?
Wonder if anyone else has come forward and claimed to see the
girls on the bike trial.

No, the bike rider with the name never reported seeing the girls, just the bikes.

The only reported and not verified sighting at the lake was a man that told Aunt Tammy that he had seen the girls on their bikes at 2:30. For whatever reason, this must have raised her suspicions as she also said that the police had his name, and that "she didn't know if he was a person of interest" which always struck me as odd that she added that. I never put much stock into this sighting Becasue of the way it seemed to be suspect to even Aunt Tammy.

I believe that this was reported in one of the earliest reports. If someone really needs a link, let me know and please give me a lot of time to find it! Lol.

 

[iamnotagolem]

I think it's safe to say the girls were last seen at 12:15 on video. Nothing else has been confirmed by LE, so that is what we have to work with.

They could have easily just ridden into someone's driveway and the perp invited them inside their house. Then the perp just had to lock them in a room and drop the bikes. There are how many houses on how many routes from the Collins to the lake?

 

[Shelby2]

I wonder why the FBI was back at the lake today.

 

[nikb]

Knowing they had to get back home, I don't think the girls went out on a paddleboat and I also think that would be a very risky thing for a perp to do, knowing that a family member could have shown up looking for the girls at any minute.

The perp worked very quickly, IMO.

Good point on the timing. Especially if they were in a hurry to get to the lake a slow lengthy paddleboat ride probably wasn't the plan. I'm still so stuck on the paddleboat since it's one of the few things LE has asked about very specifically. Just when I start thinking a theory makes sense to me. Not that the theory matters, what matters is getting the girls home.

 

[iamnotagolem]

Does that mean that there's another witness that reported directly to police rather than via facebook? We've heard about a cyclist (first posted on facebook), but unless the FBI is getting their words mixed up, it sounds like there was someone else that runs the trail that saw the bikes in the location where they were found.

I agree, either another witness or the FBI spokesperson misspoke, which worries me. I'm really hoping there was another witness.

 

[azuredewdrop]

Yep, if the victims are usually abducted from when they were last seen, that might be the Brovan area. What is over near Brovan that would have helped a child abductor quickly grab two girls without being witnessed? Is that a desolate area with little traffic?

I wish we knew if the girls had visited the lake bike trail before or if any of their sightings at the lake on 7/13 are "verified". The search dogs might have hit on an old scent.

As someone else mentioned earlier a case where some children weren't abducted but got trapped (in a trunk? sorry I haven't gone back a couple pages to recollect exactly what was said). We've heard of cases of kids dying in trunks as well as old fridges, deep freezes and other items that can seal and trap. So taking the other idea that maybe they didn't go to the lake or maybe they didn't disappear there, I wonder how much has the rest of the town (particularly around the last official sighting) been searched? How about broken down vehicles and what not in people's yards and other such places on the north side of town and not near the lake? Any locals know?

 

[Thinkzerz]

The girls scent was at the lake side and in some bushes. So where was their scent in the bushes? Was it on the way to the lake side or in a different direction?

 

[CHERIE.T]

Who fits the post-offense behavior description?

http://www.atg.wa.gov/uploadedFiles...)/Child_Abduction_Murder_Research/CMIIPDF.pdf

wow! :what:

 

[Confusion]

Not accurate...Sandy Breault, FBI

“There was a gentleman who regularly runs around the lake. He didn’t see either one of the girls ... but he did see their bikes and he was able to pinpoint the time of the day that he saw the bikes. Small details like this are really important to the investigation,” she said.

http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_507d9bca-d2b1-11e1-8f0b-0019bb2963f4.html

It's hard to know if that is TG she's talking about since he was on a bike and she said he runs on the trail regularly. She also didn't say when he saw them, just that he was able to pinpoint the time of day. I admit that it's very unlikely that 2 men happened to see 2 different pairs of bikes in nearly the same spot on the same day and both were able to say almost exactly what time it was.

I never said the idea was perfect, but all theories have to start somewhere. If I ever come up with one that fits exactly with no holes in it, I'd probably contact LE there rather than post it anyway. :twocents: