IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #14

[Sunlight]

Hi sleuths,
I've been lurking here and in the scanner thread for about two weeks now. I go thru phases of obsession with this thread and checking once a day, so forgive me if my observations aren't exactly "original."

I went down to the "scene" today, just because I wated to see it all for myself. A few observations:

1. No way are those fences 8 feet high. I'd say they are about 6'3" or so. My thought was that they were easily scale-able by Lyric for sure, if not by both. At the gate by the jetty, even if it was locked (as it is now), it is a double gate, and there is a gap between the two gates that even I, an adult man, can fit through. If she couldn't climb the fence itself, Elizabeth could have stood on the locking bar between the two gates (about 2'6" off the ground) and slipped through the gap. That's just for info's sake - I don't think they actually scaled the fence, but of course, we don't know for sure!

2. If you look at the area on a google maps picture or similar, you know that the bikes etc were found on the SE side of the lake, near a small patch of woods where Maiden Lane cuts in. I spotted the (other, single) gate from Ollipop's pictures, but to me it was not clear that there was any road behind it. Maiden Lane is fairly obvious from Arbutus (if you are looking for it). That said, if you see how the bike path shoots away to the east beyond those woods, do you see the empty field between the path and Arbutus? There are several little narrow paths that lead into the woods. Not "official" paths, but the kind of "slightly-less-jungle-like" little tracks that go right into the woods - the kind I used to explore as a child at the first opportunity! The kind likely created by repeated use rather than made on purpose. They look more used than if they were created by police walking in and out over the past few weeks.

3. Relating to the TG bike sighting on the "blind" curve: if you look on google maps, you'll see two curves in the area near those woods. The westernmost one isn't a blind curve, IMO. On the ground, no matter which way you're going, you can see thru the fenceline and see the trail ahead of you after the curve. But the easternmost curve IS a blind curve. And it is right there by the open field and the side of the woods where the little trails go in.

4. The little trails are too narrow to bike on. If TG saw their bikes at the truly blind curve, the girls were probably in the woods, whether exploring or meeting someone. If they were abducted then, all it would take was one perp ahead of them, then another walks in behind - nowhere to run now! The bikes may have been moved at any time after the fact

Having seen this stuff myself, I favor the non-boat theories of abduction. I think the girls dropped their bikes at the only truly blind curve, walked into that empty field, took a little trail into the woods (why? That's the key question...) and whatever happened, happened in there. The boat thing seems unnecesarry.

Totally agree.

 

[Beyond Belief]

Hi sleuths,
I've been lurking here and in the scanner thread for about two weeks now. I go thru phases of obsession with this thread and checking once a day, so forgive me if my observations aren't exactly "original."

I went down to the "scene" today, just because I wated to see it all for myself. A few observations:

1. No way are those fences 8 feet high. I'd say they are about 6'3" or so. My thought was that they were easily scale-able by Lyric for sure, if not by both. At the gate by the jetty, even if it was locked (as it is now), it is a double gate, and there is a gap between the two gates that even I, an adult man, can fit through. If she couldn't climb the fence itself, Elizabeth could have stood on the locking bar between the two gates (about 2'6" off the ground) and slipped through the gap. That's just for info's sake - I don't think they actually scaled the fence, but of course, we don't know for sure!

2. If you look at the area on a google maps picture or similar, you know that the bikes etc were found on the SE side of the lake, near a small patch of woods where Maiden Lane cuts in. I spotted the (other, single) gate from Ollipop's pictures, but to me it was not clear that there was any road behind it. Maiden Lane is fairly obvious from Arbutus (if you are looking for it). That said, if you see how the bike path shoots away to the east beyond those woods, do you see the empty field between the path and Arbutus? There are several little narrow paths that lead into the woods. Not "official" paths, but the kind of "slightly-less-jungle-like" little tracks that go right into the woods - the kind I used to explore as a child at the first opportunity! The kind likely created by repeated use rather than made on purpose. They look more used than if they were created by police walking in and out over the past few weeks.

3. Relating to the TG bike sighting on the "blind" curve: if you look on google maps, you'll see two curves in the area near those woods. The westernmost one isn't a blind curve, IMO. On the ground, no matter which way you're going, you can see thru the fenceline and see the trail ahead of you after the curve. But the easternmost curve IS a blind curve. And it is right there by the open field and the side of the woods where the little trails go in.

4. The little trails are too narrow to bike on. If TG saw their bikes at the truly blind curve, the girls were probably in the woods, whether exploring or meeting someone. If they were abducted then, all it would take was one perp ahead of them, then another walks in behind - nowhere to run now! The bikes may have been moved at any time after the fact

Having seen this stuff myself, I favor the non-boat theories of abduction. I think the girls dropped their bikes at the only truly blind curve, walked into that empty field, took a little trail into the woods (why? That's the key question...) and whatever happened, happened in there. The boat thing seems unnecesarry.

Welcome #1 !!!!
And a great big thank you for this insider information.

 

[dotr]

MM discusses her feelings and concerns (and a bit about the search dogs) in the early days of the case.
Interview with Mother of Missing Evansdale Girl - YouTube

 

[CoeTrawk]

WOW - thanks so much for sharing! I have thought from the beginning that they were taken right where you are describing. I think that is the area that Aunt T. was speaking about when she said that the dogs tracked to the wooded area. So, do you have any ideas about how the purse could have ended up on the other side of the fence by the lake? Maybe the girls went there first and then were abducted?

Well, the "lake side" and "woods side" of the fence are one and the same. I've been thinking that the purse and bikes didn't have to be moved at the same time. Maybe the perp tossed the purse himself at the time of the incident? (Though of course, why not just huck it in the lake? Who knows. Maybe he tried and failed, or maybe it floated to shore, which at the time was right up against the fence??) The bikes could have been moved later, maybe just by some passerby. Do we, the non-LE public, know exactly where the bikes and purse were found? If it was close to the woods, it could have been tossed.

I think I will go down there again sometime and see if I can explore the little trails in the woods without seeming like suspicious character. I was already in the scanner thread for exploring some trails, thread three, page 18 or so I think it would be interesting to know how easy or hard it is to move around back there. Could definitely help with the purse question.

 

[cindersoot]

If your gut feeling is these girls are still alive please hit thanks on this.

 

[Sunlight]

Well, the "lake side" and "woods side" of the fence are one and the same. I've been thinking that the purse and bikes didn't have to be moved at the same time. Maybe the perp tossed the purse himself at the time of the incident? (Though of course, why not just huck it in the lake? Who knows. Maybe he tried and failed, or maybe it floated to shore, which at the time was right up against the fence??) The bikes could have been moved later, maybe just by some passerby. Do we, the non-LE public, know exactly where the bikes and purse were found? If it was close to the woods, it could have been tossed.

I think I will go down there again sometime and see if I can explore the little trails in the woods without seeming like suspicious character. I was already in the scanner thread for exploring some trails, thread three, page 18 or so I think it would be interesting to know how easy or hard it is to move around back there. Could definitely help with the purse question.

I'd be careful about venturing in there alone...take several people with you..

 

[nikb]

From MSM, http://abcnews.go.com/US/cops-suspect-dad-missing-iowa-girls-case-family/story?id=16810959

The fact that MSM only served 5 months of a 4 year sentence and she gave them a name of somebody that is currently serving 121 months (10 years), makes me think revenge. Maybe, MSM was still continuing to give names of users and dealers and makers to investigators. Sure, it might be easier and less messy to just off MSM or DM, but taking one's child and another child from another member of the family would definitely get the point across to not only her, but DM and the rest of the family including HC, DC, and TB. Be too messy to have to off the entire clan.

Maybe... but I've recently learned that "prison days" don't equal "real" days. Here's more info: http://www.iowapublicdefender.com/outlines/FUN WITH NUMBERS.pdf. I hope this is an OK link - I found similar info other places but this one was Iowa specific, so I went with it.

A few snippets for the math inclined, BBM part for the non-math inclined.

Basically, every 166 days discharges a year. Got a 5 year sentence? 5 x .4545 = 2.2725 years. .2725 x 365 = 99 days. Discharge is in 2 years and 99 days. Got a 6 year sentence? Add 166 days. For a 7 year sentence, add 332 days. An 8 year sentence would discharge in anadditional 1 year and 133 days. A 9 year sentence adds 1 year and 299 days to the five year
sentence.

BUT... there's also this:

1. Earned Time Credit is the 1.2 days credit inmates receive for every day they serve in custody. They get this for prison days, jail days served prior to going to prison, mental health treatment days (court ordered), and half-way house time.

I'm not sure if the mental health treatment applies here but I know Misty was in a half-way house for awhile as reported in the early stories. I still think serving only 5 months on a 4 year sentence sounds low, but this explains part of why it was likely much less actual time in prison. She might've done some of her time in jail before that too, but only the prison time is being reported.

Why they do this I have no idea, it's maddening! The only thing I can think of is to make victims/the public feel vindicated when someone gets a long sentence like 10 years. What they don't realize or later get really upset about is if the prisoner behaves, s/he will get out MUCH sooner. If I'm reading this right it sounds like for certain violent crimes the convicted person has to serve at least 70% of their sentence. For non-violent it sounds like the minimum is 1/3 of their sentence. Maybe it's also used as an incentive for good behavior from the prisoners.

In California, I have heard antecdotally, probably because our prisons are so over-crowded, that for non-violent crimes 1 "prison day" can equal 3 "real" days. And lawyers try to keep their clients tied up in "jail" for as long as possible because in most cases the jails are a lot less crowded than the prisons. Again antecdotally (but from multiple sources) say you've got 4 years in California state prison, and the case takes 6 months while you're in "jail." Multiply by 3 and voila, you already served 18 months of your sentence. So you go to "prison" with 2.5 years left, which is really only ~1 year (around 10 months I think? Math is not my strong suit. Add a halfway house and the early releases for non-violent offenders, and 5 months on a 4 year sentence is entirely possible.

I'm not sure how that works between Federal vs. State prison though, or which type of prison we're talking about in the above quote.

For those inclined to learn more I found this handy calculator: http://www.prisoncalc.com/.

And I know this does nothing to help bring the girls home. but it might help with figuring out a motive for the crime.

 

[cindersoot]

I wouldn't be surprised if the perp was at that vigil.

 

[cindersoot]

Every time a perp gets away with this crap, makes them braver. Im for the death penalty on every person that abducts and harms children. This cr.p needs to stop.

 

[Bootsctr]

Hi sleuths,
I've been lurking here and in the scanner thread for about two weeks now. I go thru phases of obsession with this thread and checking once a day, so forgive me if my observations aren't exactly "original."

I went down to the "scene" today, just because I wated to see it all for myself. A few observations:

1. No way are those fences 8 feet high. I'd say they are about 6'3" or so. My thought was that they were easily scale-able by Lyric for sure, if not by both. At the gate by the jetty, even if it was locked (as it is now), it is a double gate, and there is a gap between the two gates that even I, an adult man, can fit through. If she couldn't climb the fence itself, Elizabeth could have stood on the locking bar between the two gates (about 2'6" off the ground) and slipped through the gap. That's just for info's sake - I don't think they actually scaled the fence, but of course, we don't know for sure!

2. If you look at the area on a google maps picture or similar, you know that the bikes etc were found on the SE side of the lake, near a small patch of woods where Maiden Lane cuts in. I spotted the (other, single) gate from Ollipop's pictures, but to me it was not clear that there was any road behind it. Maiden Lane is fairly obvious from Arbutus (if you are looking for it). That said, if you see how the bike path shoots away to the east beyond those woods, do you see the empty field between the path and Arbutus? There are several little narrow paths that lead into the woods. Not "official" paths, but the kind of "slightly-less-jungle-like" little tracks that go right into the woods - the kind I used to explore as a child at the first opportunity! The kind likely created by repeated use rather than made on purpose. They look more used than if they were created by police walking in and out over the past few weeks.

3. Relating to the TG bike sighting on the "blind" curve: if you look on google maps, you'll see two curves in the area near those woods. The westernmost one isn't a blind curve, IMO. On the ground, no matter which way you're going, you can see thru the fenceline and see the trail ahead of you after the curve. But the easternmost curve IS a blind curve. And it is right there by the open field and the side of the woods where the little trails go in.

4. The little trails are too narrow to bike on. If TG saw their bikes at the truly blind curve, the girls were probably in the woods, whether exploring or meeting someone. If they were abducted then, all it would take was one perp ahead of them, then another walks in behind - nowhere to run now! The bikes may have been moved at any time after the fact

Having seen this stuff myself, I favor the non-boat theories of abduction. I think the girls dropped their bikes at the only truly blind curve, walked into that empty field, took a little trail into the woods (why? That's the key question...) and whatever happened, happened in there. The boat thing seems unnecesarry.

:wagon:

1. I think it is always good to have a local post their observations! Gives us a better perspective on the outside looking in.

2. I'm glad the gate is locked now. I wonder if someone got in trouble for the gate not being locked at the time of the girls' disappearance (?), although it sounds like locked or unlocked the girls still could have easily gained entry.

3. Good information regarding the little paths. Some could have used those paths after crossing the field to enter the bike path too ? or stood back and observed the bike path without being noticed?

4. Sounds like the eastern-most curve is likely where the bikes were seen by TG. I can almost imagine the girls dropping their bikes after seeing a rabbit for example and trying to go catch it.

Again, :greetings: Your theory makes sense! Hope to hear more from you.

~ boots

 

[GrainneDhu]

Didn't Mr. C say between 12-3 (initially he said 12-1 and wife corrected him)? It makes a difference, because if he did, in fact, see them as early as 12:00, it makes a huge difference in the timeline. Same with gma, who early on said they left after 12, and was corrected, and then went on to say it was 11:30. These are small things that have huge impact on the timeline.

Overall, IMO, the timeline does not work based on what anyone other than the cctv says, and there is even controversy about the 8 minutes....Something is not quite right about all of this. MOO

My personal impression is that Mr C is giving the time period during which he was watering his lawn but he was not sure of exactly when he saw the girls during that period. I mean, clearly he wasn't sure or he would narrow it down to less than three hours.

Three hours to water a lawn would be just about right, if you're watering the front, sides and back.

 

[Bootsctr]

This is from August 6 ,but I am wondering if this guy had any similiar-thinking friends?
http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/ar...cle_50b4e094-dffe-11e1-aa0a-001a4bcf887a.html
According to court records, four girls ran away from a Quakerdale facility in Waterloo on June 25. They allegedly ended up at Seay’s apartment in the early morning hours of June 26, and he allegedly provided them alcohol and ecstasy pills and had sexual contact with three of them.

Two were age 13 and the other was 17, court records state. They were later examined at Allen Hospital"

Ewww! Thanks for the link. Creepy for sure.

 

[Bootsctr]

MM discusses her feelings and concerns (and a bit about the search dogs) in the early days of the case.

Thank you dot. Do you know if there was every any discussion about dogs finding the girls' scents any where else around the lake?

 

[GrainneDhu]

Great post! I concur! I lost my son a little over a year ago.... you can be smiling on the outside, but crying on the inside. This family is in what the expert or experts termed "limbo grief". I cannot imagine not knowing if your family member is still alive or have they passed.... it must be excruciating at times thinking they could be dead and other times you must feel as if there is a good chance your loved could still be alive. I do not pretend to have walked in their shoes for the emotions they must be experiencing.

Bootsctr, I am so sorry.

I think sometimes that grief generates strong energy that has to be released. Sometimes it comes out in sobbing, sometimes it comes out in laughing. Sometimes it does both!

I also have a theory that human beings are built to withstand pain (both physical and emotional) and also to find what moments of happiness that exist. Even Nazi concentration camp survivors mention moments of happiness and even joy in the midst of all that horror.

 

[cindersoot]

My personal impression is that Mr C is giving the time period during which he was watering his lawn but he was not sure of exactly when he saw the girls during that period. I mean, clearly he wasn't sure or he would narrow it down to less than three hours.

Three hours to water a lawn would be just about right, if you're watering the front, sides and back.

Id hate to pay his water bill. Three hrs, wowwie.

 

[Wishbone]

Id hate to pay his water bill. Three hrs, wowwie.

Is the drought severe enough to warrant lawn watering restrictions? I'm in Texas and I can tell you that last year we rationed our water when advised to but for the most part we did it voluntarily.

 

[FrayedKnot]

Someone in the family was quoted as saying Lyric could have convinced Elizabeth to go - it might have been Heather even. I believe that is where it came from. I will try to find it unless someone else beats me to it.

ETA: I do not think negatively at all about Lyric. I feel awful that when she was one year old custody of her was given to her aunt and her parents were on drugs and in and out of jail. I feel bad that she apparently has not had a stable upbringing by the parents who brought her into this world. MOO

Maybe I am just too sensitive because I think they are BOTH innocent little girls, but for Heather to say that (assuming it WAS her) it just sounds like she was saying that none of this would have happened had it not been for that bad Lyric.

I mean how do we know Elizabeth didn't encourage Lyric to ride out of the neighborhood or that they got nabbed just a block or two from home and weren't even breaking the rules? For that matter, it might even be that there really weren't many rules and that NEITHER girl was very well supervised. We just really don't know.

I have felt super protective of Lyric since first reading about this case because the vibe I keep getting (which really COULD be all in my head lol) is that the Collinses and Elizabeth are the 'good' family and the C-Ms and Lyric are the 'bad' family. . Also, Lyric reminds me of my DD so much, from her size to her age and she is still such a little girl.

I grieve for both families and both girls equally. Nobody deserves this.

And I know you don't think negatively about Lyric. . Your posts are always thoughtful.

It's more of a general feeling I got from
some of the statements in articles and even some well-meaning posts I have read here. Sort of like it is a foregone conclusion that Lyric might have been less 'innocent' than her cousin, but we really don't know this to be true.

Sorry this is so long, I wanted to be clear that I am not pointing fingers, but rather making an observation that we really don't know the characters of these girls. And honestly even if Lyric was drinking wine coolers and kissing boys (i am being smart alecky ) she still didn't deserve to be abducted.

Shew! I hope I cleared up where my heart was when I posted that!

 

[Bootsctr]

Maybe... but I've recently learned that "prison days" don't equal "real" days. Here's more info: http://www.iowapublicdefender.com/outlines/FUN WITH NUMBERS.pdf. I hope this is an OK link - I found similar info other places but this one was Iowa specific, so I went with it.

A few snippets for the math inclined, BBM part for the non-math inclined.

Basically, every 166 days discharges a year. Got a 5 year sentence? 5 x .4545 = 2.2725 years. .2725 x 365 = 99 days. Discharge is in 2 years and 99 days. Got a 6 year sentence? Add 166 days. For a 7 year sentence, add 332 days. An 8 year sentence would discharge in anadditional 1 year and 133 days. A 9 year sentence adds 1 year and 299 days to the five year
sentence.

BUT... there's also this:

1. Earned Time Credit is the 1.2 days credit inmates receive for every day they serve in custody. They get this for prison days, jail days served prior to going to prison, mental health treatment days (court ordered), and half-way house time.

I'm not sure if the mental health treatment applies here but I know Misty was in a half-way house for awhile as reported in the early stories. I still think serving only 5 months on a 4 year sentence sounds low, but this explains part of why it was likely much less actual time in prison. She might've done some of her time in jail before that too, but only the prison time is being reported.

Why they do this I have no idea, it's maddening! The only thing I can think of is to make victims/the public feel vindicated when someone gets a long sentence like 10 years. What they don't realize or later get really upset about is if the prisoner behaves, s/he will get out MUCH sooner. If I'm reading this right it sounds like for certain violent crimes the convicted person has to serve at least 70% of their sentence. For non-violent it sounds like the minimum is 1/3 of their sentence. Maybe it's also used as an incentive for good behavior from the prisoners.

In California, I have heard antecdotally, probably because our prisons are so over-crowded, that for non-violent crimes 1 "prison day" can equal 3 "real" days. And lawyers try to keep their clients tied up in "jail" for as long as possible because in most cases the jails are a lot less crowded than the prisons. Again antecdotally (but from multiple sources) say you've got 4 years in California state prison, and the case takes 6 months while you're in "jail." Multiply by 3 and voila, you already served 18 months of your sentence. So you go to "prison" with 2.5 years left, which is really only ~1 year (around 10 months I think? Math is not my strong suit. Add a halfway house and the early releases for non-violent offenders, and 5 months on a 4 year sentence is entirely possible.

I'm not sure how that works between Federal vs. State prison though, or which type of prison we're talking about in the above quote.

For those inclined to learn more I found this handy calculator: http://www.prisoncalc.com/.

And I know this does nothing to help bring the girls home. but it might help with figuring out a motive for the crime.

....jaw dropping! Thank you for the link and information and the calculator. I forgot about time served counting too.

 

[Wishbone]

Maybe I am just too sensitive because I think they are BOTH innocent little girls, but for Heather to say that (assuming it WAS her) it just sounds like she was saying that none of this would have happened had it not been for that bad Lyric.

I mean how do we know Elizabeth didn't encourage Lyric to ride out of the neighborhood or that they got nabbed just a block or two from home and weren't even breaking the rules? For that matter, it might even be that there really weren't many rules and that NEITHER girl was very well supervised. We just really don't know.

I have felt super protective of Lyric since first reading about this case because the vibe I keep getting (which really COULD be all in my head lol) is that the Collinses and Elizabeth are the 'good' family and the C-Ms and Lyric are the 'bad' family. . Also, Lyric reminds me of my DD so much, from her size to her age and she is still such a little girl.

I grieve for both families and both girls equally. Nobody deserves this.

And I know you don't think negatively about Lyric. . Your posts are always thoughtful.

It's more of a general feeling I got from
some of the statements in articles and even some well-meaning posts I have read here. Sort of like it is a foregone conclusion that Lyric might have been less 'innocent' than her cousin, but we really don't know this to be true.

Sorry this is so long, I wanted to be clear that I am not pointing fingers, but rather making an observation that we really don't know the characters of these girls. And honestly even if Lyric was drinking wine coolers and kissing boys (i am being smart alecky ) she still didn't deserve to be abducted.

Shew! I hope I cleared up where my heart was when I posted that!

The children's character aside, Lyric is the oldest and they usually get the blame.......

 

[FrayedKnot]

Maybe the only reason Elizabeth was taken along with Lyric is so it would throw suspicion off of the real perp(s). Because then people would say so-and-so could not have done this because they would have never taken E.

----

I don't know if I can post anymore - because it is getting more difficult to not be able to explore other possibilities that are against TOS. I find myself getting ticked off about the whole situation and I want to scream! I hope people do not get offended by this - it is MOO

I don't abuse alcohol because I choose not to
I don't do drugs because I choose not to
I don't get involved in criminal activity because I choose not to
I don't associate with criminals because I choose not to
I don't live with my parents because I choose to make responsible choices
No one else is raising my kids because I choose to make responsible choices
Life is about choices - and it's time for people to grow up and do the right thing!

Stop abusing drugs and alcohol and getting in trouble with the law - it is very distracting to what has happened here and hard to separate out what is related and what isn't.

I totally agree, especially with that last statement.

Even if the parents' and other family members' drug and criminal pasts had ZERO to do with what happened to the girls, it IS a distraction and you have to wonder if it muddies things up not just for we armchair sleuths, but for LE as well.

And I too am so sick of seeing the terrible CHOICES that parents make instead of putting their children first. .