IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #14

[pearl]

My personal impression is that Mr C is giving the time period during which he was watering his lawn but he was not sure of exactly when he saw the girls during that period. I mean, clearly he wasn't sure or he would narrow it down to less than three hours.

Three hours to water a lawn would be just about right, if you're watering the front, sides and back.

Off-topic question for sure, but why do people water their lawns during the hot part of the day? I have wondered this question for years. Seems it would just evaporate.

 

[FrayedKnot]

The children's character aside, Lyric is the oldest and they usually get the blame.......

Aha! Your post made me realize one possible reason I feel so protective of Lyric; I am the oldest in my family and ALWAYS got the blame for everything my two-years-younger sister did! Ugh!

 

[cindersoot]

Off-topic question for sure, but why do people water their lawns during the hot part of the day? I have wondered this question for years. Seems it would just evaporate.

Pearl, I asked this also in an earlier post. Didn't make sense to me at all.

 

[Bootsctr]

Bootsctr, I am so sorry.

I think sometimes that grief generates strong energy that has to be released. Sometimes it comes out in sobbing, sometimes it comes out in laughing. Sometimes it does both!

I also have a theory that human beings are built to withstand pain (both physical and emotional) and also to find what moments of happiness that exist. Even Nazi concentration camp survivors mention moments of happiness and even joy in the midst of all that horror.

GrainneDuh, thank you! You are very wise. I agree. Hard to imagine a concentration camp survivor having any happiness or joy whatsoever. I only hope that the families of Lyric and Elizabeth can pull it together and become stronger and sooner rather than later they are reunited with their girls.

 

[Considering]

Aha! Your post made me realize one possible reason I feel so protective of Lyric; I am the oldest in my family and ALWAYS got the blame for everything my two-years-younger sister did! Ugh!

Hi, sis! :innocent:

 

[GrainneDhu]

Maybe the only reason Elizabeth was taken along with Lyric is so it would throw suspicion off of the real perp(s). Because then people would say so-and-so could not have done this because they would have never taken E.

----

I don't know if I can post anymore - because it is getting more difficult to not be able to explore other possibilities that are against TOS. I find myself getting ticked off about the whole situation and I want to scream! I hope people do not get offended by this - it is MOO

I don't abuse alcohol because I choose not to
I don't do drugs because I choose not to
I don't get involved in criminal activity because I choose not to
I don't associate with criminals because I choose not to
I don't live with my parents because I choose to make responsible choices
No one else is raising my kids because I choose to make responsible choices
Life is about choices - and it's time for people to grow up and do the right thing!

Stop abusing drugs and alcohol and getting in trouble with the law - it is very distracting to what has happened here and hard to separate out what is related and what isn't.

My substance to abuse is food.

I wish I could simply decide never to abuse it again.

I wish I did not get panic attacks when I envision myself more slender (it's tied up with being raped at 12 years old).

I am fortunate. I don't have to engage in criminal activity to get my substance of choice, I don't have to associate with criminals to get access to my substance of choice, I don't have to devote the major part of my income to acquiring my substance of choice.

I don't know what the answer is. I do know that the statistics for people like me are terrible. Over 5 years, 98% of all people who diet to lose weight will gain it all back and then some.

I wish I had the choice not to be living in this glass house.

 

[Confusion]

The children's character aside, Lyric is the oldest and they usually get the blame.......

Usually, but not always. My older sister was the "good girl" in our family, and I was the "rebel." Because of that, I tended to get blamed for a lot of things my sister had actually done, and blamed for dragging her into something if we were both caught doing something wrong. In our case, it was true more often than not, but I have always believed I had a much more enjoyable childhood than she did, in spite of being constantly punished (when I was in my 30s my mother said she thought I might still officially be grounded!)

When my boys were young, I had to fight hard to keep my "reputation" from being handed down to my kids. Luckily, they were smart, friendly, charming, well-behaved kids, and people did realize that before too long. When (I hate saying if) Lyric gets home, I hope the same will happen with her. We all should be judged by our own actions rather than on what someone perceives to be our potential behavior.

 

[Bootsctr]

I've always heard it is best to water early in the morning, but admittedly not much a yard waterer here in Texas. Too expensive. Try to select drought tolerant plants and grass. Perhaps Mr. and Mrs. C widened the timeline of when Mr. C could have seen the girls because the didn't wish to have further scrutiny by local LE or the FBI? I started to say 3:00 might normally be the time they would see Elizabeth because during the school year perhaps Elizabeth would immediately ride her bike after school, but she was home-schooled so that is not right. I believe because of the grandmother's last known time to see the girls and the ccv camera time it was around 12:00.

 

[ktgirl]

I am sad to see that it seems like there are no breaks in Lyric & Elizabeth's case.

Come home, sweet girls. Please let there be a break soon- like now.

 

[artzypantz]

not that I am aware of, however a group on the FB page said they are going to search today, just their own search, I would guess that to be accurate since they wrote it themselves.

do you have a link to this FB page? I sure would appreciate it!
Thanks!
ArtzyPantz

 

[ktgirl]

My substance to abuse is food.

I wish I could simply decide never to abuse it again.

I wish I did not get panic attacks when I envision myself more slender (it's tied up with being raped at 12 years old).

I am fortunate. I don't have to engage in criminal activity to get my substance of choice...."

Respectufully snipped by me. My substance to abuse is also food and it is an addiction I am constantly fighting every waking moment. Sometimes the addiction wins.

All you have to do is look around your local Wal-Mart or place where many people are gathered to see that many (maybe even most) Americans are fighting this addiction as well.

Just wanted to thank you for being so candid - a beautiful post,GrainneDhu.

 

[Confusion]

I've always heard it is best to water early in the morning, but admittedly not much a yard waterer here in Texas. Too expensive. Try to select drought tolerant plants and grass. Perhaps Mr. and Mrs. C widened the timeline of when Mr. C could have seen the girls because the didn't wish to have further scrutiny by local LE or the FBI? I started to say 3:00 might normally be the time they would see Elizabeth because during the school year perhaps Elizabeth would immediately ride her bike after school, but she was home-schooled so that is not right. I believe because of the grandmother's last known time to see the girls and the ccv camera time it was around 12:00.

BBM
I was always told the opposite. I was told to water late in the day otherwise the water would evaporate rather than soaking in, and the grass often ends up being scorched when the hot sun heats up the water on it.

I've always just assumed that he was saying that he thought he saw her between 12 and 1, and his wife was saying he was watering between 12 and 3. When you live with some people for a while, I think you learn not to bother contradicting them because it's not worth what will follow. :twocents:

 

[otto]

Hi sleuths,
I've been lurking here and in the scanner thread for about two weeks now. I go thru phases of obsession with this thread and checking once a day, so forgive me if my observations aren't exactly "original."

I went down to the "scene" today, just because I wated to see it all for myself. A few observations:

1. No way are those fences 8 feet high. I'd say they are about 6'3" or so. My thought was that they were easily scale-able by Lyric for sure, if not by both. At the gate by the jetty, even if it was locked (as it is now), it is a double gate, and there is a gap between the two gates that even I, an adult man, can fit through. If she couldn't climb the fence itself, Elizabeth could have stood on the locking bar between the two gates (about 2'6" off the ground) and slipped through the gap. That's just for info's sake - I don't think they actually scaled the fence, but of course, we don't know for sure!

2. If you look at the area on a google maps picture or similar, you know that the bikes etc were found on the SE side of the lake, near a small patch of woods where Maiden Lane cuts in. I spotted the (other, single) gate from Ollipop's pictures, but to me it was not clear that there was any road behind it. Maiden Lane is fairly obvious from Arbutus (if you are looking for it). That said, if you see how the bike path shoots away to the east beyond those woods, do you see the empty field between the path and Arbutus? There are several little narrow paths that lead into the woods. Not "official" paths, but the kind of "slightly-less-jungle-like" little tracks that go right into the woods - the kind I used to explore as a child at the first opportunity! The kind likely created by repeated use rather than made on purpose. They look more used than if they were created by police walking in and out over the past few weeks.

3. Relating to the TG bike sighting on the "blind" curve: if you look on google maps, you'll see two curves in the area near those woods. The westernmost one isn't a blind curve, IMO. On the ground, no matter which way you're going, you can see thru the fenceline and see the trail ahead of you after the curve. But the easternmost curve IS a blind curve. And it is right there by the open field and the side of the woods where the little trails go in.

4. The little trails are too narrow to bike on. If TG saw their bikes at the truly blind curve, the girls were probably in the woods, whether exploring or meeting someone. If they were abducted then, all it would take was one perp ahead of them, then another walks in behind - nowhere to run now! The bikes may have been moved at any time after the fact

Having seen this stuff myself, I favor the non-boat theories of abduction. I think the girls dropped their bikes at the only truly blind curve, walked into that empty field, took a little trail into the woods (why? That's the key question...) and whatever happened, happened in there. The boat thing seems unnecesarry.

Thank you for your insights. Regarding the "blind curve", is it at the gate?

"The area where the bikes were found is fenced on both sides, and it is right where maintenance gate is. It is a spot that looks to me like a trap," Morrissey said. "Somebody could have just come along right then or followed them down. It would have been the worst spot to be in."

http://www.newstimes.com/news/artic...issing-Iowa-cousins-3715079.php#ixzz23HcleQlS

 

[GrainneDhu]

Well, the "lake side" and "woods side" of the fence are one and the same. I've been thinking that the purse and bikes didn't have to be moved at the same time. Maybe the perp tossed the purse himself at the time of the incident? (Though of course, why not just huck it in the lake? Who knows. Maybe he tried and failed, or maybe it floated to shore, which at the time was right up against the fence??) The bikes could have been moved later, maybe just by some passerby. Do we, the non-LE public, know exactly where the bikes and purse were found? If it was close to the woods, it could have been tossed.

I think I will go down there again sometime and see if I can explore the little trails in the woods without seeming like suspicious character. I was already in the scanner thread for exploring some trails, thread three, page 18 or so I think it would be interesting to know how easy or hard it is to move around back there. Could definitely help with the purse question.

Please consider calling the Evansdale PD and giving them a heads up on what you are planning to do and when you're going to be there. The whole community has been traumatised and each little jolt of fear prolongs the trauma.

 

[pearl]

Maybe... but I've recently learned that "prison days" don't equal "real" days. Here's more info: http://www.iowapublicdefender.com/outlines/FUN WITH NUMBERS.pdf. I hope this is an OK link - I found similar info other places but this one was Iowa specific, so I went with it.

A few snippets for the math inclined, BBM part for the non-math inclined.

Basically, every 166 days discharges a year. Got a 5 year sentence? 5 x .4545 = 2.2725 years. .2725 x 365 = 99 days. Discharge is in 2 years and 99 days. Got a 6 year sentence? Add 166 days. For a 7 year sentence, add 332 days. An 8 year sentence would discharge in anadditional 1 year and 133 days. A 9 year sentence adds 1 year and 299 days to the five year
sentence.

BUT... there's also this:

1. Earned Time Credit is the 1.2 days credit inmates receive for every day they serve in custody. They get this for prison days, jail days served prior to going to prison, mental health treatment days (court ordered), and half-way house time.

I'm not sure if the mental health treatment applies here but I know Misty was in a half-way house for awhile as reported in the early stories. I still think serving only 5 months on a 4 year sentence sounds low, but this explains part of why it was likely much less actual time in prison. She might've done some of her time in jail before that too, but only the prison time is being reported.

Why they do this I have no idea, it's maddening! The only thing I can think of is to make victims/the public feel vindicated when someone gets a long sentence like 10 years. What they don't realize or later get really upset about is if the prisoner behaves, s/he will get out MUCH sooner. If I'm reading this right it sounds like for certain violent crimes the convicted person has to serve at least 70% of their sentence. For non-violent it sounds like the minimum is 1/3 of their sentence. Maybe it's also used as an incentive for good behavior from the prisoners.

In California, I have heard antecdotally, probably because our prisons are so over-crowded, that for non-violent crimes 1 "prison day" can equal 3 "real" days. And lawyers try to keep their clients tied up in "jail" for as long as possible because in most cases the jails are a lot less crowded than the prisons. Again antecdotally (but from multiple sources) say you've got 4 years in California state prison, and the case takes 6 months while you're in "jail." Multiply by 3 and voila, you already served 18 months of your sentence. So you go to "prison" with 2.5 years left, which is really only ~1 year (around 10 months I think? Math is not my strong suit. Add a halfway house and the early releases for non-violent offenders, and 5 months on a 4 year sentence is entirely possible.

I'm not sure how that works between Federal vs. State prison though, or which type of prison we're talking about in the above quote.

For those inclined to learn more I found this handy calculator: http://www.prisoncalc.com/.

And I know this does nothing to help bring the girls home. but it might help with figuring out a motive for the crime.

I think there used to be a sentence, in the South anyway, of life-and-a-day which guaranteed the convict would die in prison. Reasoning was he/she could serve the life sentence but could never fulfill the addition of the extra day after life.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Id hate to pay his water bill. Three hrs, wowwie.

Well, it's that or let the lawn go dormant.

I chose to let my lawn go dormant. It didn't need mowing from late May/early June until a couple days ago, after we had a half inch of rain. The grass never bothers me but my poor daylilies started to looking fried. I didn't feel bad enough about them to water them, though; daylilies are tough and they will come back.

I know people who really want their lawns to look good and for them, paying the price for watering is worth it.

Water prices in Iowa are generally not that high because we don't have drought the way Texas and the southwest has drought. What we have is more of a moderate rain climate with occasional periods of dryness. Water restrictions are almost always due to lack of treatment plant capacity rather than an actual lack of water.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Is the drought severe enough to warrant lawn watering restrictions? I'm in Texas and I can tell you that last year we rationed our water when advised to but for the most part we did it voluntarily.

Some places have water restrictions but it's due to a lack of water treatment facility capacity rather than an actual lack of water.

We don't usually have drought the way Texas has drought.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Slightly ot but here is an article in todays Australian news site regarding the meth trade.

Scary stuff...

http://www.news.com.au/national/a-walk-through-missouris-valley-of-meth/story-fndo4eg9-1226447816706

A frightening quote -

Caleb once left his own six-year-old daughter in the shower and wandered off to score meth and never came back. When he was selling, he remembers his disgust at himself, and his customers, who would leave their small children with him, a stranger, while they went to the bathroom to shoot up.

NOT bashing the family but it is a fact some have fallen prey to this evil drug...the possibilities of harm to a user's children are very, very high.

Edit - why hasn't anyone banned/controlled cold meds...you can't even buy them here without ID and a good looking over/grilling by the chemist.

:moo:

 

[GrainneDhu]

The children's character aside, Lyric is the oldest and they usually get the blame.......

As the eldest child, I wholeheartedly agree.

And I consider it most unfair because it was actually my younger (by 14 months) sister who egged me on. I was a sucker for "Mommy and Daddy won't mind..." I never stopped to think "if that's true, then why aren't you doing this first?"

 

[Bootsctr]

BBM
I was always told the opposite. I was told to water late in the day otherwise the water would evaporate rather than soaking in, and the grass often ends up being scorched when the hot sun heats up the water on it.

I've always just assumed that he was saying that he thought he saw her between 12 and 1, and his wife was saying he was watering between 12 and 3. When you live with some people for a while, I think you learn not to bother contradicting them because it's not worth what will follow. :twocents:

Great AHA moment there! I feel enlightened. See, I have been told that if you water late in the day, your grass will stay damp through the night and allow diseases or molds or fungus (whatever infects grass) to damage it. We have bahia grass around here. We get a little rain and the stuff grows like 5 inches in a day. Hard on a lawnmower blade.