IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #14

[otto]

Does anyone remember offhand what day it was that TG heard about the girls and contacted LE? If not, I can dig around and find it myself. It seems like it was a day or two later, and that's not really something that I'd make a mental not to keep track of when it happened. If he had also ridden there on Thursday and saw 2 bikes laying on the trail then, and heard about it on Sunday, it seems totally possible that he'd "remember" it being Friday just because it would seem so likely.

Whether he actually saw bikes there or not, it does seem likely that whatever happened it was before 1:00 or the girls would probably have been home or WC would be likely to have seen them when she drove around looking.

I think it was within a day or two that it was posted on Facebook. I didn't read it, but that's what I remember.

I think that the girls rode their bikes to the lake right after being seen on the video at 12:11 (12:19 including the time error). The cyclist was at the lake at about 12:20, perhaps as late as 12:25. That gives a total of 6 minutes for the girls to get from home to the SE tip of Meyers Lake. If we knew where the cyclist saw the bikes, we would know if they are the same bikes. If he knew the colors or the difference in size, then certainly he saw the girl's bikes. If the girls got there in that time and vanished off their bikes between the two fences, then I doubt there was time to walk to the end of the double fenced area. It had to happen really fast, and he could well have ridden by while the girls were nearby, but unable to call for help.

 

[katydid23]

How far are the restrooms from where the bikes were left.

There have been many cases of perps hiding in restrooms to kidnap or kill their victims.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Well, this is just speculation on my part, but since the location of the abduction is not absolutely known, it could be possible that the girls rode their bikes along Brovan, turned north on Sipple, turned west on Lafayette and picked up River Forest Road from Lafayette. An abduction could have occurred on this road and or even before and then the bikes may have been picked up by someone else and ridden to where they were found.

It's just another scenario, since no one really knows what happened.

MOO

The only trouble with the "abducted elsewhere" theory (that I too kicked around) is the scent was found at the lake.

Allegedly.

 

[roseofsharon]

I think it was within a day or two that it was posted on Facebook. I didn't read it, but that's what I remember.

I think that the girls rode their bikes to the lake right after being seen on the video at 12:11 (12:19 including the time error). The cyclist was at the lake at about 12:20, perhaps as late as 12:25. That gives a total of 6 minutes for the girls to get from home to the SE tip of Meyers Lake. If we knew where the cyclist saw the bikes, we would know if they are the same bikes. If he knew the colors or the difference in size, then certainly he saw the girl's bikes. If the girls got there in that time and vanished off their bikes between the two fences, then I doubt there was time to walk to the end of the double fenced area. It had to happen really fast, and he could well have ridden by while the girls were nearby, but unable to call for help.

I think the fact the TG said he had to swerve to avoid hitting the bikes indicates he was riding very fast, so I wonder if he would have had time to observe the details of the bikes. moo

 

[otto]

Well, his phone call was made after he saw the bikes, after he rode to the gas station/garage where he said he made his call. (How does one actually prove where the call was made from?)

The cell phone call he made to his daughter is triangulated between three towers and his location is approximated. If it coincides with what he says, then it's confirmed.

 

[CoeTrawk]

How far are the restrooms from where the bikes were left.

There have been many cases of perps hiding in restrooms to kidnap or kill their victims.

About as far away as they could possibly be. The parking lot and toilets are at the are marked EXCHANGE PARK on the most recently posted map, so north of the lake. Bikes found south of it. Dunno if this matters, but from the parking lot, the trail only leaves to the west, then circles back around the lake. You can't do a full loop around the lake only without getting onto some roads.

 

[Sunlight]

The cell phone call he made to his daughter is triangulated between three towers and his location is approximated. If it coincides with what he says, then it's confirmed.

How accurate? Is the trail within the triangulation? FWIW, I'm just asking, not challenging.

 

[otto]

the cctv time was 12:11 plus 8 minutes for correction would be 12:19..whether the cctv time was really off by 8 minutes is anyones guess now.im starting to doubt it

Dahl, from the Auction Shop, said that the camera time was 8 minutes slower than his cell phone time.

 

[Sunlight]

No matter how one twists and turns on this timeline...No one other than the abductor(s) and the girls know what happened on that day...unless LE has some real evidence (which I think they do). So darn sad.

 

[hollyblue]

The same day.

“I saw the bikes laying on the path and had to swerve to miss them,” Gamerdinger said. He then went to the Evansdale Police Department to report the sighting.

http://globegazette.com/news/iowa/r...11e1-b097-001a4bcf887a.html?comment_form=true

Nope wasn't till Monday. Look up just two sentences from what you have quoted above.

As the group searched, a bicyclist stopped the officers to say he saw the two kids bikes on the trail at about 12:20 p.m., but no sign of the children.

 

[callyn]

Barren yard picture is from the Black Hawk County Real Estate and Tax Administration.

Wow, barren is putting it mildly. Quite a difference from the views on Bing and Google maps.

 

[Darcyline]

I do think it is possible we have bad data somehow. I remember one case where we were discussing a timeline much like this from a witness statement and then, for some reason, much later the timeline was altered and times changed. Like, let's say TD looked at the wrong time in his call log and the call was actually later than his original statement before he had even talked to LE. I know that sounds like a stretch, but something like that happening is a possibility. OR something stupid like maybe the guy with the security camera said 8 minutes slower when he meant faster.

I know people think mistakes like that are "unacceptable" or improbable, but I think they happen more than we think. The most important thing is LE definitely should have checked everything out and made sure/double-checked. I am quite certain they have a more complete timeline that we just do not know about.
Of course, the other possibility is someone is mistaken in a different way (he saw bikes, but not the girls) or he sucks at judging time and he really did see them BEFORE they returned to the long (someone made a good argument about that actually-forgot the username?).

I wish something would break soon. It is starting to feel a bit chilly in here and I don't like it :/

 

[otto]

I just don't see 2 responsible-appearing citizens coming forward with information that think is helpful to the investigation and purposely lying about what they saw. They may be "inaccurate" regarding times, dates or whatever, but I truly believe they saw what/who they "thought" they saw.

The judgement and accusations passed upon these "witnesses" may be why other witnesses are hesitant to come forward.

Absolutely. We've seen people testify for the defense during trials, claiming up and down that they saw something different from what all of the other evidence suggests. People sometimes believe they witnessed something, but it isn't always accurate ... in spite of their best intentions. The Jason Young trial had the kindly, elderly, mistaken neighbor, Victoria Stafford's trial also had a kindly grandmother.

 

[roseofsharon]

The only trouble with the "abducted elsewhere" theory (that I too kicked around) is the scent was found at the lake.

Allegedly.

I'm still trying to find the link where I read that human scent of one person can be transferred to another, but I do think you are right, abduction was at the lake. moo

 

[RNER]

Just wondering...what does "responsible-appearing citizens" mean..what would be an irresponsible-appearing citizen? No one is passing judgment and making accusations..people are trying to look at anyone and everyone who may have come into contact, seen, or heard of anything leading to finding these two girls. The information from these witnesses is invaluable in establishing timelines to help find out what happened, when and where. Everyone in this country is innocent until proven guilty. MOO

I knew someone would question that!

I haven't seen it indicated that these people have any drug or criminal issues, RSO affiliations, dysfunctional family or financial dynamics, no known connection to the girls or their family, thus no obvious reason to lie about what they saw. They appear to be law-abiding citizens just doing the right thing and reporting what they saw, no matter how relevant or irrelevant.

Don't read more into my statement than what I stated...and I wouldn't agree with your "no one" above.

 

[otto]

Still would like to know if there are restrooms and refreshment booths in the park. TIA

Didn't Ollipop post that there was a washroom near the parking lot? The gas station may have been more convenient than the park parking lot.

 

[otto]

It is the site of the Casey's where the "white van" was spotted, later identified and ruled out.

Do we know the address of the gas station? That would tell us that police were looking at both sides of the park ... meaning, I think, they're not sure what happened so they are excluding possibilities.

 

[otto]

Well, this is just speculation on my part, but since the location of the abduction is not absolutely known, it could be possible that the girls rode their bikes along Brovan, turned north on Sipple, turned west on Lafayette and picked up River Forest Road from Lafayette. An abduction could have occurred on this road and or even before and then the bikes may have been picked up by someone else and ridden to where they were found.

It's just another scenario, since no one really knows what happened.

MOO

So there's a Caseys on the corner of River Forest Road and Lafayette?

 

[otto]

I think the fact the TG said he had to swerve to avoid hitting the bikes indicates he was riding very fast, so I wonder if he would have had time to observe the details of the bikes. moo

That would mean that he and the girls were riding fast!

 

[Marilynilpa]

Dahl, from the Auction Shop, said that the camera time was 8 minutes slower than his cell phone time.

Mr. Pahl said that, but I haven't seen any official source stating that. I find that curious, since this video is the last known sighting of Lyric and Elizabeth. It was thoroughly reviewed by the FBI, yet the FBI has not stated that the time should be 12:19 rather than 12:11. It seems to me that 8 minutes would make a HUGE difference, especially if the bikes TG swerved to miss at 12:20 (approx) belonged to the girls.

Either LE thinks Mr. Pahl is mistaken about the 8 minute time difference, or they don't think the video is that important, IMO.

ETA: link to story about video and Mr. Pahl: http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/Surv...nown-Sighting-of-Missing-Girls-163897346.html