IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #16

[hambirg]

@ Hambirg

But LE never changed the timeline from 2:15-3:58. They asked for info from anyone who may have seen them before 3:00. They didn't say between 2:30-3:00 or 2:00-3:00. There would also have to be a way that the time the guy TB spoke with could be "pinpointed"...either by a witness (TB) or by a phone call or something. In TG's case, it can be actually pinpointed, because of the record of the phone call, which put him at a certainish location at a specific time. So, it is hard to tell if they were just mincing words on purpose or not. MOO

This is exactly why I think the runner didn't see the girls. . .only the bikes. If he is a frequent runner on the trail it wouldn't be that hard to guestimate the time he saw the bikes. . .he could have been wearing a GPS. . many runners do.

TG's time doesn't fit. He couldn't have seen the bikes on the trail, continued biking, used the restroom and then called his daughter by 12:27 if the girls were on cctv at 12:19.

 

[MNDad]

I don't know a lot about predators, but some of them might prefer to pick a remote spot rather than someplace they would likely be seen. Some of them are opportunists, not all of them plan these crimes.
What are the chances of coming across a woman walking on a country road at just the right time and a place that they can't be seen grabbing her?
Or coming across a young woman hiking down the highway late at night after being locked out of a concert?
Or coming across a young woman after she was released from jail in the wee hours of the morning?
All these crimes were crimes of opportunity, not planned.
Anything is possible, but if you (general, not personal) try to make sense out of everything, you won't solve many cases. You have to think outside the box and not be stuck on what is logical.

I agree. We should be looking at what is possible more than what is logical because it isn't logical to take two human beings at all. Obviously someone who takes another person doesn't think like the rest of us, so why would the details of their actions need to make sense.

 

[Sunlight]

Whoever the perp or perps is/are, and wherever the perp(s) abducted the girls; it had to be a gigantic risk to step out in front of two of them, or try to grab two of them into a van or other vehicle...no easy task. The only easy way is to have groomed them beforehand or to have a very effective lure to corral two young girls, who were aware of stranger danger. Or, it was planned, and the girls were in on it. MOO

ETA: Exactly how I have had to catch my own horses on occasion.

 

[nursebeeme]

The rules that were posted are just some of the parts of our terms of service. Off topic posts can also be moderated if they are detailing a thread. We do not direct the flow of posts here to control the conversation. We at fact based and do not allow rumors. It is also against tos to sleuth or discuss other members. If anyone has any questions you can pm a mod.

 

[hambirg]

Whoever the perp or perps is/are, and wherever the perp(s) abducted the girls; it had to be a gigantic risk to step out in front of two of them, or try to grab two of them into a van or other vehicle...no easy task. The only easy way is to have groomed them beforehand or to have a very effective lure to corral two young girls, who were aware of stranger danger. Or, it was planned, and the girls were in on it. MOO

ETA: Exactly how I have had to catch my own horses on occasion.

Or used a weapon. I think if the perp put a gun to one of them, I'm thinking Lyric just because she was the bigger and older one, that the other, Lizzie, would have complied.

ETA- but I am not discounting that they were groomed or lured either.

 

[Sunlight]

Or used a weapon. I think if the perp put a gun to one of them, I'm thinking Lyric just because she was the bigger and older one, that the other, Lizzie, would have complied.

ETA- but I am not discounting that they were groomed or lured either.

That is very true.

 

[GrainneDhu]

IMHO, only a stranger sexually-perverted type, who groomed them, if even briefly, would abduct two pre-adolescent girls and disappear them. I don't feel that it is drug-related, or young guys... It is possible that a slightly older person could have been the target and that the girls came instead..but an older, say teenage girl, and younger girls are like apples and oranges...as far as the tastes of a perp goes. Maybe I'm totally off base. Maybe a perp will take anything that moves so to speak. Well, I guess it depends on which scenario. I guess it could be a retaliation type of thing as well. I do think it was planned. I do think it is related to the park in Waterloo. Oy vey.

MOO

It depends on the perpetrator.

Some perps have a very narrow profile in their victim selection.

Some don't. I can think of two serial killers whose victims spanned 40 years or more (Dennis Rader and Edmund Kemper). Ted Bundy's victims included two 12 year olds and a 26 year old; it's possible that his first victim was 6 years old.

Even if the perp was fixated on a little girl like Elizabeth or one who might have been perceived as a teenager like Lyric, it's possible that the perp grabbed both to get to the one they really wanted. Perps like the Zodiac Killer and David Berkowitz killed both men and women but it seems clear that the men were incidental to the true targets, the women.

I really don't think two girls would be more difficult to abduct than one. Sure, there's double the chance that one girl would comply and the other would take off screaming but if so, well, we've seen plenty of cases just this year that shows what happens. The perp gives up on the attempt and makes a get away. If the perp had a weapon like a knife or box cutter, the perp could easily control both girls by threatening just one of them.

 

[Sunlight]

So, the "runner" may just have seen the same bikes that TG saw and that the firefighter found...perhaps rearranged, perhaps not.

We are still back at 12:15(19) - 3:58.

mOOOO

 

[GrainneDhu]

Just throwing this out there....Could older female, jealous, bully-type girls/women/woman do this in a retaliation act of some kind? I've known a few doosies in my lifetime. All we've discussed are males. MOO

I think it's possible. That's why I try to be careful not to refer to a perpetrator's gender when I make a post.

 

[otto]

I still don't get what your saying. The back of that house shows the whole area. Have you seen it in person?

Sure, if someone stands in the back yard of the house that is for sale, there is a good view of the lake, but the house is not across the lake from where the bikes were found and there is no path to the house.

 

[callyn]

Sure, if someone stands in the back yard of the house that is for sale, there is a good view of the lake, but the house is not across the lake from where the bikes were found and there is no path to the house.

Otto, I don't understand either. The back of the house looks out across the lake. On the other side of the lake, maybe a little left of where the photo out the back window shows, is where the bikes were found. I am just not following your logic here.

 

[MNDad]

Any angle can be discussed as long as it does not involve speculation or sleuthing of the family.

Can we sleuth other people that have been identified as actor in this play or do they specifically have to be named as a POI by LE? Can we question the validity and actually sleuth any of the witnesses? Can we come right out and say, "I think so and so is the perp and here is why"?

 

[GrainneDhu]

This is exactly why I think the runner didn't see the girls. . .only the bikes. If he is a frequent runner on the trail it wouldn't be that hard to guestimate the time he saw the bikes. . .he could have been wearing a GPS. . many runners do.

TG's time doesn't fit. He couldn't have seen the bikes on the trail, continued biking, used the restroom and then called his daughter by 12:27 if the girls were on cctv at 12:19.

There have been different accounts of when TG realised he may have seen something significant, from that evening up to three days later. Since he rode that trail every day, I think there really is a chance he did see two bicycles on the trail but it wasn't 13 July.

It may be that he saw two bicycles the day before or the week before and when he heard about the girls' disappearance, he made an honest mistake about which day he saw the bicycles.

 

[nursebeeme]

Can we sleuth other people that have been identified as actor in this play or do they specifically have to be named as a POI by LE? Can we question the validity and actually sleuth any of the witnesses? Can we come right out and say, "I think so and so is the perp and here is why"?

You can sleuth only those named by le as a suspect or person of interest.

 

[hambirg]

There have been different accounts of when TG realised he may have seen something significant, from that evening up to three days later. Since he rode that trail every day, I think there really is a chance he did see two bicycles on the trail but it wasn't 13 July.

It may be that he saw two bicycles the day before or the week before and when he heard about the girls' disappearance, he made an honest mistake about which day he saw the bicycles.

Maybe. . .was it ever clear that he discussed it with his daughter during that 12:27 phone call?

 

[MNDad]

Sure, if someone stands in the back yard of the house that is for sale, there is a good view of the lake, but the house is not across the lake from where the bikes were found and there is no path to the house.

I think this is semantics. From one perspective, the house is across the water from where the bikes were found. If you drew a line from the house to the gate, you would cross some water. It is not directly across the lake as if you were to draw a 90 degree line to the shoreline. I think the visuals probably already answered the original question and each person can see the relationship of the house to the gate and call it the way they like. So in other words, you are both right.

 

[MNDad]

You can sleuth only those named by le as a suspect or person of interest.

I thought that was the answer, which happens to be no one. Frustrating, but I understand. Thanks.

 

[RNER]

Can we sleuth other people that have been identified as actor in this play or do they specifically have to be named as a POI by LE? Can we question the validity and actually sleuth any of the witnesses? Can we come right out and say, "I think so and so is the perp and here is why"?

Maybe you can propose a theory or scenario without actually sleuthing a particular person. :what:

 

[MNDad]

Maybe you can propose a theory or scenario without actually sleuthing a particular person. :what:

Interesting thought. I will have to think on that for a bit.

 

[nursebeeme]

Maybe you can propose a theory or scenario without actually sleuthing a particular person. :what:

If it remotely looks like sleuthing the family the answer is no. we are a victim friendly forum here at websleuths. If there are any further quetions
pm a mod