IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #16

[MotherOcean]

I see a lot of posters referencing Lyric's size indicating she appeared older than she was, how does this information effect your theory?
I'm not disagreeing, she's bigger than me, I'm just wondering how that would effect the abductor?

My thoughts on it are the perp had seen the girls prior and knew their ages, or it was possibly a perp who wanted an older girl. But my dilemma with option 2 is that once he had them for a few minutes he'd realize pretty quickly that she was a mere child.

BBM --

I have multiple theories. I'm not ready to settle on one though I do have one that really screams at me. But, neither Lyric's size nor age affects any of them.

 

[Jules71]

Not sure if this has been thought of before, as I haven't read every post. What if the girls took Brovan, River Forest, then Morrell to the Evansdale Nature Trail. What if their intention was just to ride on it for a few minutes, near the house, so they could be back on time. Maybe they planned to ride up to Lafayette and back to the house from there.

Now what if there was an abductor waiting in the woods off the trail for someone to come along. Maybe this person is patient and just waits for the right victim to happen along his path. The girls happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Keep in mind I am going only from online maps, so maybe things have changed or I am not seeing this right, but there appears to be an empty building on Lafayette with a parking lot that backs up to the woods along the trail. It looks like an ok spot to park and not be noticed, as there doesn't appear to be much around that area that would draw people who might be paying attention to a parked vehicle.

So now what if the abductor strongarms the girls or lures them from the trail, with their bikes, to a car he has parked up against the woods. He knows they were on the Evansdale Nature Trail, so maybe he figures that they were allowed to ride/supposed to be on that trail and decides to dump their bikes on the other end of that trail, thinking that if someone comes looking for them they'll find the bikes eventually but down by the lake and will be mislead about what happened because the abduction actually took place at the opposite end of the trail, near Lafayette.

I don't think this works with the guy watering his lawn who says he saw them, but maybe he was mistaken? And was his sighting ever confirmed? Aside from him, is this possible with the time line and everything that is known?

They also requested video from First Security State bank. Maybe they went west on Brovan then circled north on River Forest in front of Lederman's then over by the bank and then cut thru to the Fareway grocery store. Or maybe that was before the cctv showed them the last time.

ETA: Darn it didn't bring your map over when I quoted your post.

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[lemon]

They also requested video from First Security State bank. Maybe they went west on Brovan then circled north on River Forest in front of Lederman's then over by the bank and then cut thru to the Fareway grocery store. Or maybe that was before the cctv showed them the last time.

Hmm, yes that could have been their route, too. See now, I didn't know that about the bank footage request. Even if the girls weren't seen on the footage, the fact that they wanted it - To me, it implies that LE was looking for either them or the abductor to maybe be captured on it. So maybe LE does have reason to believe they were up around this area...

 

[katydid23]

How does that fit with Sandy Breault saying that the hypothetical paddle boat person they wanted to talk to was not a suspect?

I think they often say that, just to keep the person from freaking out.

I just think it is odd that the lakefront homeowner said someone borrowed their paddle boat without permission on that day. And no one came forward. So I think there might be something to it.

I don't think the girls were ever on it. But I think it might have been what caught the girls attention and the perps might have used ti to their advantage.

It would have been the perfect way to convince the girls to leave their bikes there by the gate. And a perfect way to get them to walk somewhere if they thought they were going to a boat waiting nearby.

 

[MotherOcean]

I think they often say that, just to keep the person from freaking out.

I just think it is odd that the lakefront homeowner said someone borrowed their paddle boat without permission on that day. And no one came forward. So I think there might be something to it.

I don't think the girls were ever on it. But I think it might have been what caught the girls attention and the perps might have used ti to their advantage.

It would have been the perfect way to convince the girls to leave their bikes there by the gate. And a perfect way to get them to walk somewhere if they thought they were going to a boat waiting nearby.

BBM --

Was that info. about a homeowner saying someone had borrowed their paddle boat reported in MSM? I have been thinking it was a rumor, but I'd love to read the article or watch the video if it's available on-line anywhere.

 

[Jules71]

Re: The paddle boat

What if the person on the paddle boat was the look out for whoever dumped the bikes? So maybe instead of it being used as a lure, there was someone in the boat in contact with whoever was leaving the bikes --telling him the coast was clear.

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[Sunlight]

I think the paddleboat is a shiny object. MOO

 

[TeenyTaurus]

BBM --

Was that info. about a homeowner saying someone had borrowed their paddle boat reported in MSM? I have been thinking it was a rumor, but I'd love to read the article or watch the video if it's available on-line anywhere.

Here's one link, Fox News, I found on such:
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/07/23/search-for-missing-iowa-girls-will-likely-expand/

 

[nikb]

I see a lot of posters referencing Lyric's size indicating she appeared older than she was, how does this information effect your theory?

I'm not disagreeing, she's bigger than me, I'm just wondering how that would effect the abductor?

I don't have a specific theory in mind at this point, but here are the reasons I feel like it could be important:

- In terms of witnesses, from a distance, I'm not sure it would look like two little girls riding bikes. Especially with Lyric reportedly being on a mountain bike. I keep thinking back to the young boy fishing at the lake and Aunt T. asking him if he saw "two little girls" on bikes. He very well might've seen them, but from a distance and maybe even just a quick glance, he didn't realize they were both kids. This makes a huge difference in figuring out if they were at the lake that day.

- In terms of finding the girls, it's important to know what they both look like. Early on I saw quite a few photos of Elizabeth but it seemed like it took longer for ones of Lyric that were anything but a close up head-shot. When I first saw a full-length pic of her, I personally was expecting to see a child that looked younger and er..uh.. how to put this?... less 'developed' I guess (please no one take offense, I don't mean anything negative by this whatsoever). Before seeing full-length pictures I imagine that if I saw Lyric I'd have had no clue it was her because I'd think the child was older than 10. Elizabeth seems to me to be more consistent in her recent appearance - I'm sure it's because she's just enough younger that she's not changing so quickly. I sincerely doubt they're anywhere near where I live, but I do still look for them when I see kids out and about, just in case.

- If the abductor was a freaky pervert looking for young girls it makes me think it's more likely that the abductor knows the family and the girls, or is at least familiar with them. Again just because from a distance, it doesn't seem like they'd appear to be two young girls.

- There's also the difficulty factor... Elizabeth's so tiny she'd probably be fairly easy to pick up and run with. Lyric would be more difficult. Which makes me think (as I've thought all along) that they went willingly or at least semi-willingly.

All MOO...

ETA: I don't know that "pick up and run with" the kid is common at all for abductions - I can't actually think of an abduction that was like this. It was just one of those thoughts that ran through my head.

 

[nikb]

I do think it could fit with the bike sighting at the lake though. If they were grabbed up near the house it would allow a bit more time in the timeline. The girls would not be biking down to the lake; a vehicle would be transporting the bikes. If someone grabbed them, drove right to the lake and dumped the bikes, then it might be possible that they were there in time for TG to see them. Of course the abductor doesn't know that the timeline will be so tight. He is just doing what he had planned. Coincidence would be what made the timeline tight.

Huh... this sparked a thought I hadn't had before. Although I think I just talked myself out of this idea, I'll post it just in case it helps us think of anything.

Would the girls have willingly gotten into a vehicle along with their bikes, so they could be driven to the lake for their bike ride? So they'd have a little longer to ride? It'd have to be someone they knew well in that case. The reason I talked myself out of it is it seems like it'd take longer to load and unload the bikes than to just race down to the lake.

 

[craftybatchy]

I wonder if she had her glasses on when she went missing? I haven't heard that she did but I've seen enough pics of her with them on to think she wore them quite a bit.

It is my understanding that Lyric did not take her glasses with her - they were found at the house.

 

[ktgirl]

After following the Mickey Shunick case, I really wish LE would release any video footage of the girls on their bikes that may exist.

Mickey's abductor was seen on camera quickly switching lanes when he saw her riding her bike and following her down the street she was cycling on. The images of his vehicle, I believe, were instrumental in eventually connecting him to her kidnapping and murder.

Maybe there's someone trailing behind (even far behind) the girls in the videos or someone giving them second looks. Or maybe sometime later, the perp on foot or the perp's car drives by in route to the trail/lake area. LE in Mickey's case asked the owners of several vehicles seen driving near her to contact them in case they've seen anything (and I assume to rule them out as perps). Eventually all were cleared except a 4 door late model Z71. People on the look out for RSOs and/or shady behavior with such vehicles reported some strange stuff Mickey's killer did (such as whiting out his RSO status on his driver's license). Allegedly someone in his family also reported his shady behavior as well.

Perhaps releasing pics from the camera of Lyric & Elizabeth could help jog someone's memory, find potential witnesses (who didn't see the abduction but who could perhaps have mundane but pertinent info), or even lead to someone spotting a person (or vehicle) in the area who had some shady behavior in the days after the girls went missing.

Just a thought. I wish they'd release the pics of the girls from the camera.

I wish there was some sort of break or new info in this case. So sad.

 

[MNDad]

Huh... this sparked a thought I hadn't had before. Although I think I just talked myself out of this idea, I'll post it just in case it helps us think of anything.

Would the girls have willingly gotten into a vehicle along with their bikes, so they could be driven to the lake for their bike ride? So they'd have a little longer to ride? It'd have to be someone they knew well in that case. The reason I talked myself out of it is it seems like it'd take longer to load and unload the bikes than to just race down to the lake.

Would your theory work if some part of the "known" timeline was ficticious and it didn't matter what time they got down there?

 

[nikb]

<snipped for space>
Perhaps releasing pics from the camera of Lyric & Elizabeth could help jog someone's memory, find potential witnesses (who didn't see the abduction but who could perhaps have mundane but pertinent info), or even lead to someone spotting a person (or vehicle) in the area who had some shady behavior in the days after the girls went missing.

Just a thought. I wish they'd release the pics of the girls from the camera.

I wish there was some sort of break or new info in this case. So sad.

Me too. For that matter, I'd love to see ANY pics of the girls on the bikes, even from days or weeks before. I think seeing what they looked like side by side on their bikes might really help jog someone's memory.

 

[nikb]

Would your theory work if some part of the "known" timeline was ficticious and it didn't matter what time they got down there?

I wouldn't say it's a theory, more of a fleeting thought, but yeah... all kinds of theories work if we count just the LE timeline. My thought wouldn't work at all if I include Mr. C's sighting, and barely works if I include Mr. G's sighting. Well unless one of them was involved I suppose but I think that's extremely unlikely and I know it's not "sleuthable." What I was thinking of at first is if the girls truly hadn't been to the lake before maybe they stopped and asked a familiar person for directions, then the person said "hey jump in my car/van/truck/whatever, I'll just take you there." The sightings in between 12:11 and 3:58 are why I talked myself out of this idea so quickly, along with how close the lake is.

But hmm... I wonder if they followed someone to the lake? Someone who knew the way and drove there, and said "follow me, I'll help you get to the lake."

I really don't know of course. I think my last couple of ideas are unlikely scenarios for what happened, but I wanted to share the thoughts since they're a little different from what's been thrown out before and maybe someone will think of something that helps find these girls.

 

[Aunt B]

Another thought as people discuss the "bikes staged" angle and different routes the girls could have possibly taken on their bikes.....there has been a lot of great info shared about the types of dogs used in these investigations. What I can't help but wonder, is.....didn't LE have the dogs track from the actual house to see what route the girls DID take? That would seem to answer a lot of questions, not least of which being whether the girls had actually been ON the trail at all.

 

[JaimeInLA]

Would your theory work if some part of the "known" timeline was ficticious and it didn't matter what time they got down there?

Just caught up on the last thread and this one, and I wanted to say that I am SO on the same page as you. I have been since the beginning.

 

[JaimeInLA]

Can anyone find a link to today's JVM?

Also, was the supposed Fairway sighting on the day of the abduction?

 

[MotherOcean]

Re: The paddle boat

What if the person on the paddle boat was the look out for whoever dumped the bikes? So maybe instead of it being used as a lure, there was someone in the boat in contact with whoever was leaving the bikes --telling him the coast was clear.

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Yep. I think that is very possible.

 

[Thinkzerz]

I wouldn't say it's a theory, more of a fleeting thought, but yeah... all kinds of theories work if we count just the LE timeline. My thought wouldn't work at all if I include Mr. C's sighting, and barely works if I include Mr. G's sighting. Well unless one of them was involved I suppose but I think that's extremely unlikely and I know it's not "sleuthable." What I was thinking of at first is if the girls truly hadn't been to the lake before maybe they stopped and asked a familiar person for directions, then the person said "hey jump in my car/van/truck/whatever, I'll just take you there." The sightings in between 12:11 and 3:58 are why I talked myself out of this idea so quickly, along with how close the lake is.

But hmm... I wonder if they followed someone to the lake? Someone who knew the way and drove there, and said "follow me, I'll help you get to the lake."

I really don't know of course. I think my last couple of ideas are unlikely scenarios for what happened, but I wanted to share the thoughts since they're a little different from what's been thrown out before and maybe someone will think of something that helps find these girls.

Why do you feel it is unlikely that one may be lying. It is possible. imo