IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #24

[SapphireSteel]

I agree. If those girls have been out there for the length of time suggested by Heather's "bones" comment, I think an absence of DNA could not be considered conclusive. It would be a miracle if there was DNA given the suspected age of remains and the elements etc.

:MOO:

I must've missed that! Do you have a link?

TIA

 

[nursebeeme]

Anyway back to our girls.

I am going on a limb to guess there is no DNA recovered.

This would fit with my personal theory that this is not a sexually motivated crime.

I'm pretty sure the girls went willingly, or at least, walked into that forest themselves.

dna could have been recovered that did not match another known sample.

 

[chelsea6]

Okay, I'm probably adding 2+2+2 and getting 9, but your questions plus the witness who said they had to swerve to avoid bikes in the path at the lake made me wonder about a scenario like this:

Girls pour juice. Grandma reminds them time is almost up. They run out to get one more ride around the neighborhood. They run into somebody they know -- slightly older boys, maybe from school or maybe friends of the older brother or something. Horsing around, the way boys do, intending to tease, they snatch Elizabeth's purse and dash away on their bikes.

Girls chase after them, lose them, have to ask directions to the lake.

Boys ditch their bikes in the path and run into the trees, still laughing and teasing, but when the girls don't show up right away, they get bored, toss the purse, and leave.

Girls get there but can't find the purse.

Kind stranger offers to help.......

Hey, that could be!! I've had boys do that to me too when I was young. Thank you for answering ;0)

 

[otto]

I agree. If those girls have been out there for the length of time suggested by Heather's "bones" comment, I think an absence of DNA could not be considered conclusive. It would be a miracle if there was DNA given the suspected age of remains and the elements etc.

:MOO:

Absolutely. The information we have right now is that the children most likely died shortly after they were abducted, and that they were skeletonized. The latter is not surprising given the length of time they were in the area and the temperatures over the five months that they were there.

If there was any DNA on the clothing due to an assault, it would be long gone, and there would be no soft tissue remaining on the bodies.

 

[otto]

I thought either she could phone home with it, or the mom or grandma could call on it in an emergency, one of the two? Glad I asked, I must have missed that.. t.y.




I was thinking if it were carried around her shoulder/waist, the perp had to take it off of her, or she took it off or maybe ripped it during a struggle. That would be a clue.



Yikes, I'm just the opposite!! Thanks for your answers. :seeya:

I seem to recall that Elizabeth's phone had 911 service.

 

[SapphireSteel]

I agree. If those girls have been out there for the length of time suggested by Heather's "bones" comment, I think an absence of DNA could not be considered conclusive. It would be a miracle if there was DNA given the suspected age of remains and the elements etc.

:MOO:

Foreign DNA can and is often found on/in even very decomposed remains.

From the case of the Spokane Serial Killer, Robert Lee Yates -

Jennifer Joseph, 16, found August 26, 1997. Her body was found in a high state of decomposition in an out of the way rural setting. Cause of death, gunshot wound to the chest. DNA from semen found in her body was matched to Yates. A fake pearl button from the shirt that was found lodged under the seat of a Corvette formerly owned by Yates led to the suspect's arrest.

Darla Sue Scott, 29, found November 5, 1997. Her decomposed body was discovered by a man walking his dog off Hangman Valley Road. Two plastic bags were found in her shallow grave. Cause of death is two gunshots to the head. DNA from Yates was matched to semen found in her body.

If the girls were wrapped in something, or not entirely skeletonised,or even partially buried, there should still be some trace evidence, maybe not on the bodies themselves, at least on their clothing.

 

[otto]

I didn't say that. I just said that no DNA would fit with my theory of an alternative(non sexual) motive.

:waitasec:

I'm just saying that the absence of DNA evidence on bodies or clothing that were next to a river for 5 months means nothing. It would be miraculous if there was DNA in that situation.

 

[SapphireSteel]

dna could have been recovered that did not match another known sample.

There is a famous case in Australia, in a small town called Wee Waa, where police asked for all males to come forward and be voluntarily tested. For the record, only 12 men refused, out of a town of a couple of thousand...and they were investigated thoroughly as a result.

Dna Test Flushes Out Wee Waa Suspect
Sydney Morning Herald
Tuesday April 18, 2000
Les Kennedy
In the wake of Australia's first mass DNA screening, a 44-year-old man was being questioned last night over the rape of a 93-year-old woman in Wee Waa.
The man, a farm labourer who lives in the north-west cotton-belt town, is believed to have presented himself to police late yesterday.
Police confirmed last night that the man was expected to be charged over the attack.
He was to be taken to Moree police station, where he would be detained before his expected appearance in Narrabri Local Court today.
The Herald has learned that the man was one of 500 Wee Waa males who submitted to ``voluntary" saliva swab DNA tests earlier this month.
It is understood that the man came forward before the results of his swab were known.


The idiot not only consented to the swab, he handed himself in before the results were known!

Something like this could (maybe should) be done in Evansdale, in my opinion.

Familial DNA is improving all the time. All they'd have to do is find one marker that is unique to one famly and the whole family tree are either strong suspects, have a familial link to a strong suspect, or can be eliminated entirely as the dna depositor.

 

[tlcya]

Foreign DNA can and is often found on/in even very decomposed remains.

From the case of the Spokane Serial Killer, Robert Lee Yates -

Jennifer Joseph, 16, found August 26, 1997. Her body was found in a high state of decomposition in an out of the way rural setting. Cause of death, gunshot wound to the chest. DNA from semen found in her body was matched to Yates. A fake pearl button from the shirt that was found lodged under the seat of a Corvette formerly owned by Yates led to the suspect's arrest.

Darla Sue Scott, 29, found November 5, 1997. Her decomposed body was discovered by a man walking his dog off Hangman Valley Road. Two plastic bags were found in her shallow grave. Cause of death is two gunshots to the head. DNA from Yates was matched to semen found in her body.

If the girls were wrapped in something, or not entirely skeletonised,or even partially buried, there should still be some trace evidence, maybe not on the bodies themselves, at least on their clothing.

I agree it is possible but disagree that usable, identifiable DNA is found often in such cases.

Not saying it could not be, simply saying that a lack of killer's DNA found on the bodies would not, in my view, translate into definitive proof that no sexual assault happened.

 

[nursebeeme]

SS, they also did this in the BTK case... (swabbed multiple people) as well as the Jessica Ridgeway case. I wonder if they have done it in this case?

fwiw the swabbing strategy came about most likely because there was something to compare it to.. It would be great news if there were touch dna on the bikes or purse that matched to the remains location.

I hope they have **something**

 

[JaimeInLA]

There is a famous case in Australia, in a small town called Wee Waa, where police asked for all males to come forward and be voluntarily tested. For the record, only 12 men refused, out of a town of a couple of thousand...and they were investigated thoroughly as a result.

Dna Test Flushes Out Wee Waa Suspect
Sydney Morning Herald
Tuesday April 18, 2000
Les Kennedy
In the wake of Australia's first mass DNA screening, a 44-year-old man was being questioned last night over the rape of a 93-year-old woman in Wee Waa.
The man, a farm labourer who lives in the north-west cotton-belt town, is believed to have presented himself to police late yesterday.
Police confirmed last night that the man was expected to be charged over the attack.
He was to be taken to Moree police station, where he would be detained before his expected appearance in Narrabri Local Court today.
The Herald has learned that the man was one of 500 Wee Waa males who submitted to ``voluntary" saliva swab DNA tests earlier this month.
It is understood that the man came forward before the results of his swab were known.


The idiot not only consented to the swab, he handed himself in before the results were known!

Something like this could (maybe should) be done in Evansdale, in my opinion.

Familial DNA is improving all the time. All they'd have to do is find one marker that is unique to one famly and the whole family tree are either strong suspects, have a familial link to a strong suspect, or can be eliminated entirely as the dna depositor.

That is exactly what Austin Sigg did! He was included in the DNA testing of males in Westminster, CO. But before LE even ran the tests through the lab, he called them and confessed.

 

[tlcya]

I must've missed that! Do you have a link?

TIA

patience please, it is quitting time at work and it may have to wait til I get back home from work. I will need to go back and look in the last thread where we all debated ad nauseum about whether girls were there a week or since disappearance.

Heather made some statements that someone was kind enough to link. It was during the interview she and Drew did recently.

ETA here is a post in the last thread during that debate Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - Found Deceased IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, and Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #23

No link in it but it does give me a time frame of the interview in question so I can search tonight. Long as the internet does wonk out due to storm. Thanks for your patience.

 

[SapphireSteel]

That is exactly what Austin Sigg did! He was included in the DNA testing of males in Westminster, CO. But before LE even ran the tests through the lab, he called them and confessed.

Yes, you are right! I'd forgotten.

It seems they don't actually need to test the swabs, just asking for them is enough to make these cowards fold like a wet paper bag.

 

[SapphireSteel]

patience please, it is quitting time at work and it may have to wait til I get back home from work. I will need to go back and look in the last thread where we all debated ad nauseum about whether girls were there a week or since disappearance.

Heather made some statements that someone was kind enough to link. It was during the interview she and Drew did recently.

Yay cocktail hour.

I'm in no urgent hurry, I just hadn't heard about "bones" and I think I need to read whatever else Heather has said.

In my own mind the girls have been deceased since 13 July as that's what Heather and Drew said at the celebration, and that's what fits with my theories.

 

[otto]

Foreign DNA can and is often found on/in even very decomposed remains.

From the case of the Spokane Serial Killer, Robert Lee Yates -

Jennifer Joseph, 16, found August 26, 1997. Her body was found in a high state of decomposition in an out of the way rural setting. Cause of death, gunshot wound to the chest. DNA from semen found in her body was matched to Yates. A fake pearl button from the shirt that was found lodged under the seat of a Corvette formerly owned by Yates led to the suspect's arrest.

Darla Sue Scott, 29, found November 5, 1997. Her decomposed body was discovered by a man walking his dog off Hangman Valley Road. Two plastic bags were found in her shallow grave. Cause of death is two gunshots to the head. DNA from Yates was matched to semen found in her body.

If the girls were wrapped in something, or not entirely skeletonised,or even partially buried, there should still be some trace evidence, maybe not on the bodies themselves, at least on their clothing.

It sounds like the victim you mention, Darla Scott, was exposed to the elements from the end of August to the beginning of November, so slightly longer than 2 months. It also sounds like she was not skeletonized. The same situation happened with Morgan Harrington, where she was not completely skeletonized and it was still possible to collect some DNA.
_______________________________________________________


The formula for determining the time for complete skeletonization is as follows:

y = 1285/x, where
y = number of days until skeletonization
x = average temp in Centigrade

(number of days until skeletonization) = 1285/(average temp in centigrade)

formula reference: http://www.sgm.ac.uk/pubs/micro_today/pdf/110108.pdf
average temp graph: http://www.weather.com/weather/wxclimatology/monthly/graph/50707

Using info from the linked average temp graph, I arrive at the average temperature of 52.6 F, or 11.4 C

y = 1285/11.4
The number of days until skeletonization in Evansdale: 112 days

The number of days that the children were missing (July 13 - December 5): 145 days.

There is no possibility that the children were not skeletonized if they were killed shortly after they were abducted, they were in that location for 5 months and they were "bones" (per Elizabeth's mother).

 

[Jasper52]

I seem to recall that Elizabeth's phone had 911 service.

Any old cell phone will allow you to call 911 providing the battery still works.

http://www.wcpo.com/dpp/news/region...ster/old-cell-phones-problem-for-911-dispatch

 

[Mjskit]

I grew up in New Zealand (cold, lots of snow) and moved to Australia (warm, what's snow?) and I remember it well.

It's one of the reasons I moved countries. Snow is only appealing to those who don't have to live in it.

I love the snow! I love the change of seasons here in WV. It is unique and beautiful no matter what season. I could live anywhere if I so chose. The people here will give you the shirt off their backs to help you.

 

[L84tea]

It sounds like the victim you mention, Darla Scott, was exposed to the elements from the end of August to the beginning of November, so slightly longer than 2 months. It also sounds like she was not skeletonized. The same situation happened with Morgan Harrington, where she was not completely skeletonized and it was still possible to collect some DNA.
_______________________________________________________


The formula for determining the time for complete skeletonization is as follows:

y = 1285/x, where
y = number of days until skeletonization
x = average temp in Centigrade

(number of days until skeletonization) = 1285/(average temp in centigrade)

formula reference: http://www.sgm.ac.uk/pubs/micro_today/pdf/110108.pdf
average temp graph: http://www.weather.com/weather/wxclimatology/monthly/graph/50707

Using info from the linked average temp graph, I arrive at the average temperature of 52.6 F, or 11.4 C

y = 1285/11.4
The number of days until skeletonization in Evansdale: 112 days

The number of days that the children were missing (July 13 - December 5): 145 days.

There is no possibility that the children were not skeletonized if they were killed shortly after they were abducted, they were in that location for 5 months and they were "bones" (per Elizabeth's mother).

I am curious tho if that would change if they were protected by mud? Did they ever say if the bodies were buried? I really hope they found some dna.

 

[borndem]

It's not often, if ever, that DNA has been found on bones that were left in a damp river bank for 5 months.
I don't think that we can conclude that no DNA means no sexual assault.

I was just getting ready to post nearly exactly what you said above, otto. If those little bodies were left outside anywhere in that general area in July -- or even moved to that area, I cannot figure any way any DNA evidence of sexual attack would still be available 5 months later. ~ Would it be possible that the clothing might still hold a trace? ~

I do hope finding the COD would be discernible, however. If so, it would likely be broken bones, of course (make me so angry to think of it) -- hyoid, upper vertebrae, etc., etc. And it would not be a tuff argument, IMO, to convince a jury that bodies left outside for months as you described above would not be expected to yield DNA from a sexual assault -- which is not proof that such assault did not occur.

Will anyone ever tell us what really happened?? Got my doubts. :banghead:

 

[SapphireSteel]

I was just getting ready to post nearly exactly what you said above, otto. If those little bodies were left outside anywhere in that general area in July -- or even moved to that area, I cannot figure any way any DNA evidence of sexual attack would still be available 5 months later. ~ Would it be possible that the clothing might still hold a trace? ~

I do hope finding the COD would be discernible, however. If so, it would likely be broken bones, of course (make me so angry to think of it) -- hyoid, upper vertebrae, etc., etc. And it would not be a tuff argument, IMO, to convince a jury that bodies left outside for months as you described above would not be expected to yield DNA from a sexual assault -- which is not proof that such assault did not occur.

Will anyone ever tell us what really happened?? Got my doubts. :banghead:

The mathematical calculations are interesting, but someone said the girls were recognisable when they were found.

The calculations are also for bodies uncovered, we still have no clue if they were clothed, buried, covered, or wrapped, or even hidden in a shady spot. They could have been alive until two weeks ago, or stored in a freezer.


:dunno: