IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #24

[otto]

Why do I think the girls were at Meyer's Lake? Because LE has multiple eyewitnesses placing them in the vicinity from 12:30 to 1:00 pm. Because their bicycles and Elizabeth's purse were found there. Because the two Bloodhounds the FBI flew in found scent away from the bicycles.

And because I think actual evidence trumps psychological theory.

<respectfully snipped>

The reason I have some doubt is because police have a possible witness that saw them between 12:30 and 1 near Elmer and Gilbert, but they do not have confirmation that the girls were at the lake, because the dogs tracked 10 feet from the bikes to the water and then stopped, because the bikes and purse indicate the children were dawdling when we know they knew they had to be home, because they went out for a bike ride and did exactly as they were told for 53/60 minutes that they were allowed to be on bikes and because they were last seen heading in the wrong direction to go to the lake.

It's no surprise that the police were completely stumped ... since everything we know can be interpreted in at least two ways.

 

[GrainneDhu]

What if they were seen there, but not alone?

What if they were kidnapped by where they were last seen on video and then taken towards the lake?

If so, then I would have thought that the FBI would have had one of their highly qualified composite artists of the person seen with the girls. Since that did not happen to the best of my knowledge, I think that if the girls were seen near Meyer's Lake that no one was seen with them.

While everyone says "look at the Elizabeth Smart case, where LE sat on the sketch of 'Emmanuel' for several months before the parents released it" I really believe that was an aberration due to some weird sort of maladaptive behaviour on the part of the SLCPD. I can't explain it and I don't think anyone else can either.

The overwhelming majority of cases where departments invest the time and money into generating a sketch of a person of interest, they release that sketch immediately so that the public can help them.

I really think that if someone had abducted the girls and then taken them to Meyer's Lake, any witness would have noticed someone who was not an 8 year old or 10 year old girl with them.

 

[GrainneDhu]

<respectfully snipped>

The reason I have some doubt is because police have a possible witness that saw them between 12:30 and 1 near Elmer and Gilbert, but they do not have confirmation that the girls were at the lake, because the dogs tracked 10 feet from the bikes to the water and then stopped, because the bikes and purse indicate the children were dawdling when we know they knew they had to be home, because they went out for a bike ride and did exactly as they were told for 53/60 minutes that they were allowed to be on bikes and because they were last seen heading in the wrong direction to go to the lake.

It's no surprise that the police were completely stumped ... since everything we know can be interpreted in at least two ways.

I don't have time to go through the media articles right now but I will do it in the next few days because I believe that Chief Deputy Abben said that they had a "couple" of witnesses that placed the girls near Meyer's Lake between 12:30 and 1:00.

It caught my ear because, first of all, that rules out TG's sighting. TG clearly said he saw the bicycles on the path before 12:28, the time when his cell phone logged a call to his daughter.

So if TG's sighting was ruled out, then that must mean that Mr C may be counted plus one more witness that has not been in the msm.

And I was saying to myself "finally, a witness in this case who apparently had the sense to stay away from the media!!!"

 

[otto]

If so, then I would have thought that the FBI would have had one of their highly qualified composite artists of the person seen with the girls. Since that did not happen to the best of my knowledge, I think that if the girls were seen near Meyer's Lake that no one was seen with them.

While everyone says "look at the Elizabeth Smart case, where LE sat on the sketch of 'Emmanuel' for several months before the parents released it" I really believe that was an aberration due to some weird sort of maladaptive behaviour on the part of the SLCPD. I can't explain it and I don't think anyone else can either.

The overwhelming majority of cases where departments invest the time and money into generating a sketch of a person of interest, they release that sketch immediately so that the public can help them.

I really think that if someone had abducted the girls and then taken them to Meyer's Lake, any witness would have noticed someone who was not an 8 year old or 10 year old girl with them.

BBM

I think that it would have been quite simple to pull up just ahead of one or both of the girls in a vehicle (like Austin Sigg did with Jessica), stop, grab one and then the other ... drive down River Forest Road, left on Gilbert, wrap around Arbutus and pull into Maiden Lane. This is where grabbing two girls may have been more than what was planned .. that is, a random sex offender might plan on abducting a child if the situation presented itself (always on the lookout for the situation presenting itself) but two girls? Was it always the plan to go to 7 Bridges Park, or was the plan to abduct one girl, presumably without a bike, and leave her in Maiden Lane? Was it also the plan to leave no evidence at the abduction site ... this isn't the first time that a bike was taken with a child.

How about this for a scenario ... stop the girls to admire the bikes .. make an offer - perhaps for the bike that Lyric is riding. Tell the children he'll give them his number in case the owner wants to sell the bike, that draws them to the vehicle ... and maybe he just pulled up ahead ... stopped, opened the front door, grabbed one, then the other, the bikes ... gone.

I think it's quite possible that he took the bikes and tossed them onto the Evansdale Nature Trail near the "people gate" on the trail, as this would explain the cyclist's sighting of the bikes at about 12:27-ish. It's possible that the perp saw the cyclist swerve and knew that his identification of the bikes would give a timeline to the abductions, so he moved the bikes to the drainage gate and to draw less attention if someone else rode by. It would take more time, but we haven't heard from anyone else that rode that part of the trail that day. It seems to be rarely used ... if I recall correctly something that Ollipop said about it being isolated and a bit scary, not the sort of place that children would choose to ride bikes.

 

[otto]

I don't have time to go through the media articles right now but I will do it in the next few days because I believe that Chief Deputy Abben said that they had a "couple" of witnesses that placed the girls near Meyer's Lake between 12:30 and 1:00.

It caught my ear because, first of all, that rules out TG's sighting. TG clearly said he saw the bicycles on the path before 12:28, the time when his cell phone logged a call to his daughter.

So if TG's sighting was ruled out, then that must mean that Mr C may be counted plus one more witness that has not been in the msm.

And I was saying to myself "finally, a witness in this case who apparently had the sense to stay away from the media!!!"

Thanks. So if the girls rode their bikes to Elmer and Gilbert between 12:23 and 12:30 or 1:00 PM, why did they do that after riding the loop near the house for 53/60 minutes that they were allowed to cycle?

What made them suddenly want to ride West on Brovan Blvd at 12:23, left on River Forest Road, cut back to Elmer, arrive at Gilbert after 12:30, ride East towards Lake Avenue, South on Lake, East on Arbutus, take the Evansdale Nature Trail (or cut through the field near the trees) ride West on the trail, swerve around the two bikes on the trail, continue to the drainage gate, park their bikes, open the latched, 8-10 foot wide gate, go through the gate, put down the purse and ... poof. The dogs could not track oldest to newest from the bikes except to go to the water, which was right next to the bikes.

Why would they open such a large gate? I'll look for a picture of it ...

It looks like a really tall fence. Would they park their bikes and decide to go through the fence and, if so, why? Why at that time?

Very tall fence - 10 feet or so. The trail is 10 feet wide.

Here's part of the gate

Here's the whole gate. Would two children go there and open this gate, just to sit for a while, when they were expected home any minute?

 

[georger]

so he moved the bikes to the drainage gate and to draw less attention if someone else rode by. It would take more time, but we haven't heard from anyone else that rode that part of the trail that day. It seems to be rarely used ... if I recall correctly something that Ollipop said about it being isolated and a bit scary, not the sort of place that children would choose to ride bikes.[/quote]

Taking the bikes to the Park would create a diversion - and it worked!
If it was a diversion ...

But it takes some time, risks being seen, ... girls are subdued and cant cry
out which took extra time ...

and nobody sees "anything"! Amazing. Or maybe it was seen but not
noticed as being out of the ordinary and not reported for some reason ?

Just too many what-ifs.

 

[georger]

Thanks. So if the girls rode their bikes to Elmer and Gilbert between 12:23 and 12:30 or 1:00 PM, why did they do that after riding the loop near the house for 53/60 minutes that they were allowed to cycle?

What made them suddenly want to ride West on Brovan Blvd at 12:23, left on River Forest Road, cut back to Elmer, arrive at Gilbert after 12:30, ride East towards Lake Avenue, South on Lake, East on Arbutus, take the Evansdale Nature Trail (or cut through the field near the trees) ride West on the trail, swerve around the two bikes on the trail, continue to the drainage gate, park their bikes, open the latched, 8-10 foot wide gate, go through the gate, put down the purse and ... poof. The dogs could not track oldest to newest from the bikes except to go to the water, which was right next to the bikes.

Why would they open such a large gate? I'll look for a picture of it ...

It looks like a really tall fence. Would they park their bikes and decide to go through the fence and, if so, why? Why at that time?

Very tall fence - 10 feet or so. The trail is 10 feet wide.

Here's part of the gate

Here's the whole gate. Would two children go there and open this gate, just to sit for a while, when they were expected home any minute?

Looking at these photos and the tall growth around this fence/gate etc.
it makes me wonder if someone was already there unseen (his vehicle
parked but seen by the girls) when the girls rode up ... he watches them
for a bit or maybe the girls even tried to find the owner of the vehicle?
then the abductor decides to act - spur of the moment - grabs them etc.

Would that scenario eliminate all of the sighting issues in town or even
riding to the lake and the placement of the bikes as found ... the clock
of abduction starts at the lake and happens quickly, and whoever and his
vehicle are gone from the scene quickly with the girls, and gone from the
area quickly ... would take less than 5 minutes and could leave no evidence ...

The bikes may have been found exactly where the girls dumped them. They
walk down to the lake as kids would to take a look intending to go back to
their bikes and get home as expected, the perp watches them walk down to
the lake and evaluates his position for kidnapping them ... and its over.

 

[Sere-nity]

Thanks. So if the girls rode their bikes to Elmer and Gilbert between 12:23 and 12:30 or 1:00 PM, why did they do that after riding the loop near the house for 53/60 minutes that they were allowed to cycle?

What made them suddenly want to ride West on Brovan Blvd at 12:23, left on River Forest Road, cut back to Elmer, arrive at Gilbert after 12:30, ride East towards Lake Avenue, South on Lake, East on Arbutus, take the Evansdale Nature Trail (or cut through the field near the trees) ride West on the trail, swerve around the two bikes on the trail, continue to the drainage gate, park their bikes, open the latched, 8-10 foot wide gate, go through the gate, put down the purse and ... poof. The dogs could not track oldest to newest from the bikes except to go to the water, which was right next to the bikes.

:snipped for space by me:

The 12:30 sighting on Elmer/Gilbert. Was it stated that the girls were seen there or that the girls were seen there riding their bikes?

 

[otto]

Taking the bikes to the Park would create a diversion - and it worked!
If it was a diversion ...

But it takes some time, risks being seen, ... girls are subdued and cant cry
out which took extra time ...

and nobody sees "anything"! Amazing. Or maybe it was seen but not
noticed as being out of the ordinary and not reported for some reason ?

Just too many what-ifs.

Nobody saw anything. That is a fact. No one saw anything at Brovan Blvd except the camera at 12:23 PM, where the children on bikes were heading in the wrong direction to go to the lake. There were no later sightings of them going in the right direction. No one saw anything between Brovan Blvd and Meyers Lake. Someone gave information about two children at Elmer and Gilbert between 12:30 and 1:00. No one saw anything at the drainage pipe gate, except the cyclist gave information about two bikes just East of the drainage pipe, near the people gate to the private property around Maiden Lane, at 12:27ish. No one saw anything at 7 Bridges County Park.
,
After driving to Maiden Lane, there was very little risk of being seen. Someone mentioned a stun gun ... that would ensure that no one cried out. No one heard 10 year old Jessica Ridgeway cry out and she was grabbed on a residential street near a park when all the children were going to school. Subduing the girls could have been fairly easily done at Maiden Lane ... and a stun gun or some other means of abduction could have been used on Brovan or between Brovan and Meyers Lake.

The only place where the abduction could have been seen by anyone is between Brovan and Meyers Lake. If it happened at the drainage pipe, it was an incredible coincidence that a bad guy just happened to be there when two children just happened to break all the rules and dawdle where they weren't supposed to be.

 

[otto]

The 12:30 sighting on Elmer/Gilbert. Was it stated that the girls were seen there or that the girls were seen there riding their bikes?

There's no mention of the bikes in the "information" that they have.

"Rick Abben, chief deputy at the Black Hawk County Sheriff&#8217;s Office, said in a statement Thursday. &#8220;Both girls were last seen on July 13 at 12:15 p.m. riding their bicycles away from the Collins residence in Evansdale. We have information that the girls were seen approximately 12:23 p.m. on Brovan Blvd. and between 12:30 and 1:00 p.m. on Gilbert DR. in the area of Meyers Lake in Evansdale.

...

Law enforcement is asking for anyone that was in the Arbutus Ave. or Gilbert Dr. and Elmer Ave. areas or anywhere in Evansdale on that day that may have seen the girls to notify us,&#8221; he said.&#8221;

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlin...-missing-2-months-authorities-plead-for-help/

 

[Sere-nity]

There's no mention of the bikes in the "information" that they have.

"Rick Abben, chief deputy at the Black Hawk County Sheriff&#8217;s Office, said in a statement Thursday. &#8220;Both girls were last seen on July 13 at 12:15 p.m. riding their bicycles away from the Collins residence in Evansdale. We have information that the girls were seen approximately 12:23 p.m. on Brovan Blvd. and between 12:30 and 1:00 p.m. on Gilbert DR. in the area of Meyers Lake in Evansdale.

...

Law enforcement is asking for anyone that was in the Arbutus Ave. or Gilbert Dr. and Elmer Ave. areas or anywhere in Evansdale on that day that may have seen the girls to notify us,&#8221; he said.&#8221;

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlin...-missing-2-months-authorities-plead-for-help/

Thanks Otto. In my head I wonder, well if they mentioned the girls and the bikes were last seen riding away from the Collins place and then state the girls were later seen somewhere else and don't state anything about bikes, were the bikes then not visible for some reason at the later time?

 

[otto]

Thanks Otto. In my head I wonder, well if they mentioned the girls and the bikes were last seen riding away from the Collins place and then state the girls were later seen somewhere else and don't state anything about bikes, were the bikes then not visible for some reason at the later time?

I think the difference is that the 12:15 sighting is a fact, and the 12:23 and 12:30-1:00 are based on unverified information. It may be that the information includes two girls on bikes, but it isn't stated that bikes were seen, and there's apparently no confirmation of those times ... it remains as "information" rather than fact. That's how I read it. The 12:15 time may be Wylma and the 12:23 time may be two people on bikes on video. The lawn watering man may well be the 12:30 - 1:00 sighting, but police are interested in Gilbert, Elmer and Arbutus (Maiden Lane is off Arbutus), but Lake (lawn watering man) is not mentioned.

 

[georger]

it was an incredible coincidence that a bad guy just happened to be there when two children just happened to break all the rules and dawdle where they weren't supposed to be.[/quote]

I dont see it as a coincidence at all that a bad guy would pick that place!
In fact, just the opposite. I think a bad guy wuld be attracted to that place
for the very reason of concealment and privacy, especialy if he has a history
and is looking for privacy.
.
There are homeless people and 'bad guys' in every ditch, culvert , creek,
patch of weeds and trees, under every bridge, et cetera you can find,
in my town! Every day sometimes multiple times a day police get dispatched
to these areas over some problem. Its where bums live in the summer! That
park would be perfect for some transient or someone seeking privacy to hold
out in and rest, think, and plan in ... privacy. If nobody is around its the perfect
place for an abduction or robbery!

He can be out of there and gone with the girls in a split minute! No place else
offers a similar advantage, without extra facts and even more 'coincidences'
of non-sighting...

 

[otto]

There are homeless people and 'bad guys' in every ditch, culvert , creek,
and patch of weeds and trees, under every bridge, et cetera you can
find, in my town! That park would be perfect for some transient or
someone seeking privacy to hold out in and rest, think, and plan in ...

There may have been a homeless person living at the end of Maiden Lane ... a homeless guy with a vehicle that would blend in for 20 miles to 7 Bridges Park ... but ... also a homeless guy with a vehicle who left no evidence of living at Maiden Lane?

The children may have decided that after spending 53 of their allowed 60 minutes doing exactly as they were told, they were going to head to the lake they weren't allowed to go to ... not only to it, but to go through a latched 8-10' gate, set down the purse and dawdle ... and as a homeless guy approached them from the forested area a 100' away, they simply stayed where they were, left the purse and vanished?

 

[otto]

I dont see it as a coincidence at all that a bad guy would pick that place! In fact, just the opposite. I think a bad guy wuld be attracted to that place for the very reason of concealment and privacy, especialy if he has a history and is looking for privacy.
.
There are homeless people and 'bad guys' in every ditch, culvert , creek, patch of weeds and trees, under every bridge, et cetera you can find, in my town! Every day sometimes multiple times a day police get dispatched to these areas over some problem. Its where bums live in the summer! That park would be perfect for some transient or someone seeking privacy to hold out in and rest, think, and plan in ... privacy. If nobody is around its the perfect place for an abduction or robbery!

He can be out of there and gone with the girls in a split minute! No place elseoffers a similar advantage, without extra facts and even more 'coincidences' of non-sighting...

He can be out of there and gone with the girls after about 100 feet between the girls at the gate and the forest near Maiden Lane. All other vehicle access is a much further distance, and much less private. I doubt that he lived there ... as there's no evidence of someone camping in the small forested area around Maiden Lane ... that we've heard from through locals or investigators. Besides, it's private property.

It would, however, be an ideal spot for someone to pull into after abducting two children ... if only to sort out the details, get rid of some evidence, and finalize a plan.

(sorry ... replied before you edited)

 

[georger]

There may have been a homeless person living at the end of Maiden Lane ... a homeless guy with a vehicle that would blend in for 20 miles to 7 Bridges Park ... but ... also a homeless guy with a vehicle who left no evidence of living at Maiden Lane?

The children may have decided that after spending 53 of their allowed 60 minutes doing exactly as they were told, they were going to head to the lake they weren't allowed to go to ... not only to it, but to go through a latched 8-10' gate, set down the purse and dawdle ... and as a homeless guy approached them from the forested area a 100' away, they simply stayed where they were, left the purse and vanished?

The only caveat to the experience I have in this is: local police would
know if the homless etc use this park, hold out there, sleep there, etc ...
and I havent heard one report of this being the case or anyone even
suggesting it could be the case ? Maybe Evansdale doesnt have any
bums, transients, people taking time out in privacy sleeping at parks-in
tree areas, etc ? My community sure does - to overflowing!

One poster said you could pull back on that road in a car and not be
seen? Well there you go. The girls might not have seen anyone there
going in ... ?

For me its the simplest solution - Occams Razor. Anything in town
almost requires more complex explanation of all the possible variables.

 

[georger]

He can be out of there and gone with the girls after about 100 feet between the girls at the gate and the forest near Maiden Lane. All other vehicle access is a much further distance, and much less private. I doubt that he lived there ... as there's no evidence of someone camping in the small forested area around Maiden Lane ... that we've heard from through locals or investigators. Besides, it's private property.

It would, however, be an ideal spot for someone to pull into after abducting two children ... if only to sort out the details, get rid of some evidence, and finalize a plan.

(sorry ... replied before you edited)

If its a good place to go to AFTER an abduction, its a perfect place
to do one. Assuming the girls were there.

 

[GrainneDhu]

BBM

I think that it would have been quite simple to pull up just ahead of one or both of the girls in a vehicle (like Austin Sigg did with Jessica), stop, grab one and then the other ... drive down River Forest Road, left on Gilbert, wrap around Arbutus and pull into Maiden Lane. This is where grabbing two girls may have been more than what was planned .. that is, a random sex offender might plan on abducting a child if the situation presented itself (always on the lookout for the situation presenting itself) but two girls? Was it always the plan to go to 7 Bridges Park, or was the plan to abduct one girl, presumably without a bike, and leave her in Maiden Lane? Was it also the plan to leave no evidence at the abduction site ... this isn't the first time that a bike was taken with a child.

How about this for a scenario ... stop the girls to admire the bikes .. make an offer - perhaps for the bike that Lyric is riding. Tell the children he'll give them his number in case the owner wants to sell the bike, that draws them to the vehicle ... and maybe he just pulled up ahead ... stopped, opened the front door, grabbed one, then the other, the bikes ... gone.

I think it's quite possible that he took the bikes and tossed them onto the Evansdale Nature Trail near the "people gate" on the trail, as this would explain the cyclist's sighting of the bikes at about 12:27-ish. It's possible that the perp saw the cyclist swerve and knew that his identification of the bikes would give a timeline to the abductions, so he moved the bikes to the drainage gate and to draw less attention if someone else rode by. It would take more time, but we haven't heard from anyone else that rode that part of the trail that day. It seems to be rarely used ... if I recall correctly something that Ollipop said about it being isolated and a bit scary, not the sort of place that children would choose to ride bikes.

BBM

The post I was responding to (which was quoted in full in my response) posed the scenario that the girls were abducted elsewhere in Evansdale and then moved to the location or locations near Meyer's Lake where they were seen by the witness(es) who saw them between 12:30 and 1:00.

Had the two girls already been abducted before they got close to Meyer's Lake, I doubt they would have been seen without the person who abducted them.

Since there is no evidence of that, I don't think that was what happened.

As for the portion I bolded, that was the sort of place that I was drawn to at that age... along with every other kid in the neighbourhood. We'd get each other all freaked out over the tales we would tell about a little patch of woods and another place that had a long deserted house.

And when we were all freaked out, we would dare each other to go ride by the "haunted" house or the "boogie man forest" (which, as an adult, I realise was a neglected orchard on less than 2 acres). Or ride up to the house and touch the door. And all sorts of other silly kid stuff that was made way more fun because we were both scared and full of bravado.

Yes, sir, I am here to tell you that I am probably the toughest person on the internet today because when I was 11 years old, I sat on the front porch of the haunted house for 30 minutes with a flashlight while I pretended I was reading a book.

It was only afterwards, due to the taunts of my playmates that I realised that if you're pretending to read, you should flip a page occasionally. But as I pointed out on that fateful evening, it didn't matter what I was doing, I sat on the porch of the haunted house for 30 minutes.

So I read the description and looked at Ollipop's photos of that place along Meyer's Lake and wondered why it wasn't bustling with scared little kids speeding through there from morning until after dark to prove that they aren't too scared to do so.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Thanks. So if the girls rode their bikes to Elmer and Gilbert between 12:23 and 12:30 or 1:00 PM, why did they do that after riding the loop near the house for 53/60 minutes that they were allowed to cycle?

What made them suddenly want to ride West on Brovan Blvd at 12:23, left on River Forest Road, cut back to Elmer, arrive at Gilbert after 12:30, ride East towards Lake Avenue, South on Lake, East on Arbutus, take the Evansdale Nature Trail (or cut through the field near the trees) ride West on the trail, swerve around the two bikes on the trail, continue to the drainage gate, park their bikes, open the latched, 8-10 foot wide gate, go through the gate, put down the purse and ... poof. The dogs could not track oldest to newest from the bikes except to go to the water, which was right next to the bikes.

Why would they open such a large gate? I'll look for a picture of it ...

It looks like a really tall fence. Would they park their bikes and decide to go through the fence and, if so, why? Why at that time?

SBM

I don't think they did go through that gate, at least not voluntarily.

I don't think anyone will ever know for sure why they left the area around the Collins house to go down to Meyer's Lake. My top guesses are boredom or mischief. Probably coupled with a childish lack of an accurate sense of how much time such a venture would take.

My personal theory of the crime is that the two girls were riding the loop around Meyer's Lake when one or both of them were accosted in that closed in area between the two fences. The perp got physical control over one girl, probably by the simple act of grabbing her by the arm, shirt or hair and giving a sharp yank sideways. My guess is that it was probably Lyric because it makes more sense to control the larger of two victims.

I think the perp either forced Elizabeth to toss her purse over the fence or got it from her and tossed it over the fence himself (I believe that the fence between the trail and lake is only 8 feet tall).

Then he forced them down the trail, into the woods and into his vehicle which was parked on Maiden Lane.

I believe he had already picked out 7 Bridges as his secondary scene. I think he was a local who knew that 7 Bridges was not likely to have any human visitors during a Friday afternoon with the river so low. No inner tubers, no one canoeing or fishing.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Looking at these photos and the tall growth around this fence/gate etc.
it makes me wonder if someone was already there unseen (his vehicle
parked but seen by the girls) when the girls rode up ... he watches them
for a bit or maybe the girls even tried to find the owner of the vehicle?
then the abductor decides to act - spur of the moment - grabs them etc.

Would that scenario eliminate all of the sighting issues in town or even
riding to the lake and the placement of the bikes as found ... the clock
of abduction starts at the lake and happens quickly, and whoever and his
vehicle are gone from the scene quickly with the girls, and gone from the
area quickly ... would take less than 5 minutes and could leave no evidence ...

The bikes may have been found exactly where the girls dumped them. They
walk down to the lake as kids would to take a look intending to go back to
their bikes and get home as expected, the perp watches them walk down to
the lake and evaluates his position for kidnapping them ... and its over.

The above is also my theory of the crime.

From Ollipop's accounts of walking that trail around the lake with his own kids, I made a rough guesstimate that there were an average of 7-10 users on the trail at any given time during the day. If these people were perfectly evenly spaced, that leaves 6 minutes between each person or a total of 12 minutes for grabbing Lyric and Elizabeth.

Of course, people never evenly spread themselves out in such situations, they tend to cluster. So there may have been times when there were 2-4 people walking or biking on the trail as a group and other times when there were gaps of half an hour or more.

My point being that the trail had a fairly optimal combination of users (giving a range of potential targets) and times between users to commit a crime without high risk of observation.

On 13 July, the interstate was under construction and it was unusually noisy, which would tend to muffle any screams.