Interesting post! A few points...
BTK wiped out the Otero household in broad daylight. While I agree that a grudge can override safety faculties, so can an irresistable urge, a lust to kill.
And we have no way of knowing that the killer was just armed with a knife.
A couple of things about that. From what I remember, BTK actually only planned to hit the mother, but the addition of the husband wasn't expected because for some reason ( i don't remember why) he stayed at home that day. Can you argue that this killer might not have known who was at the house? Certainly it is possible, but to me it is unlikely due to the timing of the attack (just as they went asleep) and the time itself of the attack (3:00-5:00 AM) shows the killer had some idea of the victim's movements. After all, it was a party house full of young people. Girls and boys that age often stay awake until the morning on the weekends.
Second, Rader actually didn't have to worry about so much. There were only 2 grown ups in the house he needed to get the cooperation from. Their children's cooperation could be gained easily if their parents was and their parents vice-versa would have just been easily gained because they wouldn't want to risk their children's lives. And the children were no physical threat to Rader. And if worst came to worst, his escape would have been pretty easy. That made his job a whole lot easier than this killer who had to deal with 4 grown ups in the prime of their lives in a very risky environment. Sure, the killer had every possible advantage he could have had in the situation he was in, but he still took an incredibly risky maneuver that, at least imo, is unexplainable for a random killing
Third, BTK actually came quite prepared with a gun in hand to immobilize the victims and make them feel 'safe'' before proceeding with the actual attack. He didn't just rush in with a knife in a multiple story house. And I know we have no way of telling if he came only with a knife, that's true, but at the same time the absence of gagging or any use of using a gun as a control method shows that it's highly unlikely that this killer basically rushed in with a knife in one hand and a gun in the other. It would make the attack terribly inconvenient for the killer.
Is your point about Bundy that he would be caught quickly today because of DNA? Or something else? Because he's a planner, I would surmise that he would have adjusted to the times. I disagree with your point about risk.
Lots of other things such as attacking victims in broad daylight and carelessly using his own vehicle. He would have been detected very early in the present day. Yes, you could say he might have adjusted his MO with modern technology, but then that wouldn't make him Bundy, would it?
I agree that some killers are smart enough to limit risk. Some can control their impulses. And some are opportunists. Bjt many killers who plan murders have antisocial tendencies, which include risk taking, impulsiveness and manipulation. Thrill seeking can a key element when you are killing for the love of the game. I say this as someone who has sat in the room with many people with Antisocial Personality Disorder, including psychopaths. When they tell their stories about their crimes they often revel in their risk taking, limit testing and when they almost get caught. They also often insert themselves in investigations, which carries enormous risk.
How many serial killers "risk taking" overwhelm their faculties of self-preservation? There's a reason the primary targets of most serial killers are the elderly or lonely women. How many serial killers use a knife as their main weapon instead of a gun, if not the main weapon then to at least use it as a measure of control? How many serial killers attack multiple victims at once in a single attack? Now combine these all together for even further unlikelihood. I've also found that serial killers more than often have a very sexual component to their crimes and in this case the killer doesn't seem to have been interested in that. Is it possible this killer in Moscow is an anomaly in the serial killer department? Sure. But is it very likely? Not in my opinion.
I think it's far more likely we're dealing with a person who has a severe grudge against these people. Might be something as simple as them throwing constant parties around and the killer having had enough of it. Might be something about their lifestyle that pissed him off. Might be he had dealings with them and they disappointed him in some way. Might be that he had feelings for one of the victims and his feeling were not returned or something else in their persona relationship that pissed him off. With people like a person capable of doing this - all kinds of flimsy reasons can make them snap. In the case of Jodi Arias when she stabbed Travis Alexander, it was basically because he wouldn't return her romantic feelings and marry her instead just preferring the casual sex Jodi offered. She grew to hate him to the point where she wanted to murder him (and very brutally at that) despite the fact that he did incredibly nice things for her throughout her friendship and throughout the whole time until the day of his death she was pretending to be a good friend. But at some point something in her snapped and he needed to die. From loving him to absolutely hating him.
My point is that with certain kinds of people it's a lot easy to piss them off with something and you may never even know what you did wrong. And if they get it in their head that you've angered them enough and they've began to resent you, they will get it in their head that you have to die whatever the consequences. Serial killers, in a sense, are more predictable because the vast majority of them follow a very specific pattern that you can distinguish and they certainly hope to continue their crimes as long as possible instead of getting caught or murdered along the way of doing something dangeorus for them.
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