ID - DeOrr Kunz Jr, 2, Timber Creek Campground, 10 July 2015 - #10

[rkf]

Oh, then we know for a fact that GGPA and IR weren't together at that time, because them together would make a plural? I didn't know it had been established exactly when IR left the campsite to go fishing.

Nate Eaton: Where was Mr. Renwand during all of this?”
Sheriff Bowerman: (Using his hands to demonstrate) He was in the same general proximity. The creek…it’s just over the bank. Um, he’s downstream, they’re upstream. Uh, they’re all within probably (head nodding left to right) 100 to 150 feet of each other.

[video=youtube;FV-h82eVQ1M]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FV-h82eVQ1M[/video]

 

[Onebest]

Well, then it might be more appropriate and accurate to just refer to GGPA BY his age rather than a term one might use such as "elderly".

Sure!... or disabled?? frail, sickly...don't remember what LE called him? but I am sure they can evaluate a person's physical condition. That is what they do every day of their life. Just my thoughts.... How disabled a person is due to health should not determined by age. That would be in any circumstance. My thought would be not to get hung up on it. In this situation GGP's age is not as important as his overall health.

 

[ILOKAL]

GGP made a mistake.

Thank you Cardinal. DK said 50 yards in the interview but I didn't realize that GGPA also said 50 yards. I don't think 50 yards is necessarily wrong in this case. That's just about the width of three average residential lots, give or take, to put the distance in a different perspective. (I'm not a football fan, LOL)

 

[rkf]

Well the Social Security Administration disagrees with you:

http://www.ssa.gov/planners/lifeexpectancy.html

The average life expectancy for a man in the US is 76.3. In Utah, the average life expectancy for a man is 78.28. http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/usa/life-expectancy-male
The social security administration statistic is not average life expectancy. Men who haven't died by the age of 65 have an average life expectancy of 84.3, longer than the average of all men. So, the average life expectancy of a 76 year-old man may be 84.3, but that doesn't change that the average life expectancy of a man in the US is 76. The higher death rates of younger people (accidents, suicides, fast growing cancers, etc.) lower the life expectancy for all men.

Regardless of life expectancy, I find it hard to believe people are arguing over whether ggp is an older adult.

 

[charminglane]

I am wondering tonight if ggp wore a hearing aid?

Eta: I'm sure we will never find out.

 

[ILOKAL]

I can add to the confusion.

Sheriff Bowerman: Primarily, the information we have is…grandpa is watching the child. He tells me he looks away momentarily. When he looks back, he’s gone, and he’s assumed he’s gone over the bank.

BBM Does the first "he" refer to ggp or someone else who told the sheriff what happened with ggp?

There ya go! Confusing!

 

[ILOKAL]

Sure!... or disabled?? frail, sickly...don't remember what LE called him? but I am sure they can evaluate a person's physical condition. That is what they do every day of their life. Just my thoughts.... How disabled a person is due to health should not determined by age. That would be in any circumstance. My thought would be not to get hung up on it. In this situation GGP's age is not as important as his overall health.

AND, as you can see from the overall difference of opinion here on WS, we don't KNOW what his overall health IS, but we've certainly heard the full gamut of possibilities, haven't we?!

 

[ILOKAL]

The average life expectancy for a man in the US is 76.3. In Utah, the average life expectancy for a man is 78.28. http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/usa/life-expectancy-male
The social security administration statistic is not average life expectancy. Men who haven't died by the age of 65 have an average life expectancy of 84.3, longer than the average of all men. So, the average life expectancy of a 76 year-old man may be 84.3, but that doesn't change that the average life expectancy of a man in the US is 76. The higher death rates of younger people (accidents, suicides, fast growing cancers, etc.) lower the life expectancy for all men.

Regardless of life expectancy, I find it hard to believe people are arguing over whether ggp is an older adult.

Well, you should have kept reading where I explained that about SSA. Oh, the term used was "elderly".

 

[rkf]

The SSA life expectancy is based on people who have reached 65 years of age. Once you reach 65 you have a greater life expectancy. Since GGPA has reached 65 (and beyond) he has a longer life expectancy.

According the the age expectancy calculator on the link you gave, the average age expectancy of a male born on January 24, 1939 when he reaches a 76.7 years of age is 87.5 years.

Life Expectancy Calculator

The following table lists the average number of additional years a male born on January 24, 1939, can expect to live when he reaches a specific age.

At Age Additional Life Expectancy Estimated Total Years
(in years)
76 and 7 months 10.9 87.5
Your current age


Note: The estimates of additional life expectancy:
1. do not take into account a wide number of factors such as current health, lifestyle, and family history that could increase or decrease life expectancy.
2. are based on the gender and date of birth and information from our cohort life expectancy tables.
(Some of the information can be found in the 2015 Trustees Report.)

Estimate as of Sunday August 30, 2015 21:55:37 EDT.

http://www.socialsecurity.gov/cgi-bin/longevity.cgi

 

[Onebest]

The average life expectancy for a man in the US is 76.3. In Utah, the average life expectancy for a man is 78.28. http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/usa/life-expectancy-male
The social security administration statistic is not average life expectancy. Men who haven't died by the age of 65 have an average life expectancy of 84.3, longer than the average of all men. So, the average life expectancy of a 76 year-old man may be 84.3, but that doesn't change that the average life expectancy of a man in the US is 76. The higher death rates of younger people (accidents, suicides, fast growing cancers, etc.) lower the life expectancy for all men.

Regardless of life expectancy, I find it hard to believe people are arguing over whether ggp is an older adult.

I agree..GGP would be considered an "older" adult but our question is how capable he is for his age. If he is totally capable for his age of watching a 2.5 year old his participation in watching said baby shouldn't be an issue unless he failed to do what he agreed, like we talked about right? If he is disabled due to illness or God only knows what then who cares how long he is expected to live statistically... Either way, he shouldn't have been left with a baby to watch if he wasn't physically able. Seems to be a lot of unknowns about this change of command (or not) over the child. His buddy is what/ in his 30's and can't hardly talk straight in the video. JMO.

 

[starfire]

IIRC, various timelines provided by MSM had the family arriving on Friday morning until the EIN interview with the sheriff on August 18th. I'm surprised (but maybe shouldn't be) that in speaking with LE over the preceding 5 1/2 weeks, no reporter ever clarified the family's arrival at the campsite. I'm equally surprised that LE never corrected the reporters' mistake if they already knew the correct arrival date/time. But again, maybe I shouldn't be surprised.

East Idaho News was unaware of the Thursday arrival date until the day of the interview with the sheriff. I called them the day before to clarify the timeline, I brought up Thursday, and (after a long pause) was told they had never heard that. I was also told about the "substantial" article that would be published the next day.

 

[Snoopster]

I hadn't checked in on this thread in a while due to disappointment at progress in the search for Deorr. Popping in here now, I am so disheartened. Where is this little guy???

Hopefully LE has some leads in this case. (I suspect that they do, but hopefully my hopes aren't misplaced.)

 

[gliving]

50 yards is 1/4 of a football field.

MOO

50 yards is 1/2 of a football field.

 

[rkf]

I think hypotheticals require some degree of reasonableness. You can only s-t-r-e-t-c-h a scenario s-o-o far, IMO. Sometime's dogs just don't track well, period, just like in so many other cases. The reason for that failure is seldom because the person was not there. Also, I think the sheriff is the only one who has provided us with GGPA's direct statements, not just "others" telling us what GGPA said. And do we really need to know if "they" had breakfast with GGPA? Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar and that's not just MY opinion.

<modsnip>I'm trying to figure out ways that everyones' statements can be true/correct. If it takes too much creativity, that means an unlikely hypothesis actually happened OR everyones' stories cannot be true/correct if they don't match. There have been interviews with others, such as DeOrr's paternal grandfather, maternal grandmother and the PI in which they said what ggp saw or said. There have also been SM posts that referred to what ggp said/saw/did, but those are considered rumor, as they were made by family members or people who hacked family members' accounts.

http://www.people.com/article/missing-boy-idaho-grandfather-speaks
http://www.eastidahonews.com/2015/07/grandma-of-missing-2-year-old-he-just-vanished/
[video=youtube;-78P5ayOlRc]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-78P5ayOlRc&feature=iv&src_vid=hjTsIZOVWvs&annotation_id=annotation_2122308307[/video]

IR did not confirm that he saw DeOrr at the campsite in his doorway interview. He may (or may not) have confirmed he saw him to LE. The ggp may have confirmed seeing DeOrr to LE that weekend, or someone else may have told the sheriff ggp saw the child. If DeOrr was at the campground, but wasn't seen by either of the non-parents at the campsite and the parents' story of DeOrr's disappearance (as we've heard it in their interview) is accurate, I'm looking for a possible/plausible explanation. You don't have to agree with my hypothesis/speculation. I don't even agree with it. Your response doesn't tell me why you think this scenario is such a stretch.

Of course we don't need to know if the parents had breakfast with ggp. I think if DeOrr was kidnapped, parents and LE would want to know about the hours leading up to his disappearance and it would make sense to share that information with the public in case someone saw something that could be related. If there was a kidnapper unseen nearby, perhaps there were others nearby that weekend who were not involved in abducting the child - and they might have information related to any place DeOrr set foot before July 10th at 2:00 pm.

I wonder if Onebest would chime in about how often a dog can't find a trace of a missing person within hours of a disappearance - is it really that rare that a scent/trail can't be found because the person didn't set foot where the dogs are searching? I'm sure it depends on the dogs, but according to the sheriff, "Given the proven expertise of the dogs the boy should have been found the first day."
http://lemhiweb.com/content/search-recap

 

[rkf]

SBM and BBM

LE did say they are 99% sure he was at that campsite. IMO that's as sure as LE will ever get. They never say they are 100% sure of anything. Ever. They are merely investigators. The fact that he is 99% sure tells me they found enough to indicate that little DeOrr was there.

I still think that some poor hunter or scouting group will find his little body in that area. Who knows when but hopefully soon rather than later.

If I saw a photo of little DeOrr at the campsite with a newspaper dated July 10th, 2015, I would be 100% sure he was there. If I saw a photo of him at the campsite wearing the clothes he had on when he disappeared, looking like he was 2 1/2 and the weather and flora looked the same as when I arrived to search on Friday afternoon, I would be 99.99% sure he was there. If the parents, ggp or IR were in the photos, looking the same as when I arrived, that might push me to 100%. JMO

 

[rkf]

I am commenting on what Sheriff Bowerman said in his interview with Nate. I would have no idea (nor would any of us) what questions, if any, were asked of the parents by detectives/investigators nor any idea what, if any, their answers would have been. I also would have no idea what, if any, assumptions were made by the detectives/investigators.

To me it sounded like the detectives/investigators made the omission and then found out their own mistake and corrected it.

What makes you think it was an omission by the investigator then?

 

[rkf]

Sorry not trying to feed the monster but was it the same location on both Thursday and Friday? still confused with all the posting.

Nate Eaton: Let’s go back to the beginning. Can you kind of give us a timeline as to when the family arrived and what proceeded?

Sheriff Bowerman: Well, the family, from what I understand, that we learned during the investigation arrived the evening prior to July 10th, sometime, uh, fairly close to dark on Thursday, July 9th, and then, uh, they went to uh…went to town in Leadore and upon returning they supposedly thought they were turning their child over to their uh, grandfather – the child’s great-grandfather.

Since the family returned to the campsite after going to the store, it appears to be the same campsite from which they left. I guess it's possible, they slept elsewhere in ggp's Suburban, drove to the Timber Creek Campground on Friday morning, went to the store and then returned to the campsite, but it doesn't seem likely. Unless he's keeping that information quiet for a reason, I'd expect the sheriff to say they slept somewhere else Thursday night and moved to Timber Creek on Friday if that was so. JMO

 

[ILOKAL]

What makes you think it was an omission by the investigator then?

Like I said, that's the impression I have based on Sheriff Bowerman's interview.

 

[rkf]

Well, then it might be more appropriate and accurate to just refer to GGPA BY his age rather than a term one might use such as "elderly".

eld·er·ly (&#277;l&#8242;d&#601;r-l&#275
adj.
1. Being past middle age and approaching old age; rather old.
2. Of, relating to, or characteristic of older persons or life in later years.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/elderly

elderly
adjective el·der·ly \&#712;el-d&#601;r-l&#275;\
: old or rather old : past middle age

Full Definition of ELDERLY
1 a : rather old; especially : being past middle age
b : old-fashioned
2 of, relating to, or characteristic of later life or elderly persons
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/elderly

[el-der-lee]
adjective
1. of advanced age; old:
2. of or relating to persons in later life.
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/elderly

GGP may feel like a spring chicken but I'm 99% sure he's elderly. :gaah:

 

[charminglane]

Nate Eaton: Let’s go back to the beginning. Can you kind of give us a timeline as to when the family arrived and what proceeded?

Sheriff Bowerman: Well, the family, from what I understand, that we learned during the investigation arrived the evening prior to July 10th, sometime, uh, fairly close to dark on Thursday, July 9th, and then, uh, they went to uh…went to town in Leadore and upon returning they supposedly thought they were turning their child over to their uh, grandfather – the child’s great-grandfather.

Since the family returned to the campsite after going to the store, it appears to be the same campsite from which they left. I guess it's possible, they slept elsewhere in ggp's Suburban, drove to the Timber Creek Campground on Friday morning, went to the store and then returned to the campsite, but it doesn't seem likely. Unless he's keeping that information quiet for a reason, I'd expect the sheriff to say they slept somewhere else Thursday night and moved to Timber Creek on Friday if that was so. JMO

Every time I read Bowerman's quote I read it as they went to Leadore and the store Thursday night.
Read it again.