Charlot123
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I'm not local but regarding that question I would wager under 3 for any day of the year. Calendar year 2016 go back with video evidence and allow me to make 365 wagers under 3. I love my chances at a decisive profit.
That's my beef with the theory, and basically my pet peeve with the case in general. Too many people prefer to believe it is an oft-traveled trail with hikers and sightseers galore. Baloney. There's nobody on those trails. I thought one of the most valuable posts that bitterbeatpoet made on Reddit was when he matter of factly mentioned that during 15 visits to the bridge since the murders only twice did he see someone else on the trail...one person on two different occasions. That is the real world regarding that bridge, and trails in general. It's not a decline due to the murders. It is representative of trails in general. I walked at least 10 trails during my fall 2019 trip. Every year I walk trails during trips. Unless it is a high profile trail with an incredible view at dusk you can guarantee you'll be alone or all but alone.
There was a great post recently in this thread with a woman detailing a recent experience on a remote trail with a stranger who made herself and her husband nervous. I knew exactly where she was going as soon as she began. One person after another would change their mind regarding Delphi if they walked trails and had the inevitable experiences like that. It doesn't have to be a local. They don't have to know the area like the back of their hand. Simply being on a trail places the aspiring offender at a massive advantage already. If ideal prey shows up there almost certainly won't be anyone else behind them. Or in front of them. Or down by the bridge. He can make mistakes during the commission because there's nobody to rescue the girls or tell on him.
If Bridge Guy had waited at the south end of the bridge he was in jeopardy of rotting away like a corpse, before any victims actually showed up. I don't care about the Cheyenne example or anything else. Give me the under. He schemed from the north end because once he had victims out there he knew there wouldn't be anyone else. I think Abby and Libby were having fun and took an extraordinarily long time to cross the bridge, beyond any estimate. Libby must have been taking dozens of pictures and also some videos. Once Bridge Guy gauged their pace he eventually ventured out there. I suspect he looked very normal for the first half of the crossing. He wasn't speeding with his hands in his pockets throughout. He was stopping and looking at both sides of the creek. He might even have taken pictures.
During this period he continues to evaluate the situation. He knows he has to look normal enough and non-threatening enough for Abby and Libby not to get scared and dash away. They would view his presence as more of an uncomfortable oddity that anything else. This idiot walked out onto the bridge while we're still here. Libby wasn't suspicious of Bridge Guy. She took an otherwise normal video of Abby completing her first trek across the bridge, and Bridge Guy snuck into the bottom right of the video in only the final seconds. He was now accelerating because he had a plan. An accelerated pace isn't unusual over those final 100 feet because the footing is more secure and the scenic aspect is basically gone since you're now within trees on both sides.
True, if you assume the trails are just a hiking place. But bridges, embankments and beaches are “marketplaces” of all kinds. It could be in Hawaii. It could be in Delphi, Indiana. What I want to say, maybe in 2017 the area around MH bridge was more populous than now?