Found Deceased IN - Abigail (Abby) Williams, 13, & Liberty (Libby) German, 14, The Delphi Murders 13 Feb 2017 #123

[Deleted member 102539]

I think there is someone out there with suspicions that also is looking for one last piece of the puzzle. Something about the crime that cements to them that their suspicions are correct and compels them to pick up the phone and call it in.

bbm
WSers maybe?

 

[JDough]

bbm
WSers maybe?

Very interesting thought. I've wondered the same a time or two!

 

[rosesfromangels]

Very interesting thought. I've wondered the same a time or two!

I would encourage anyone with a reasonable suspicion/piece of info (based on something Material-(not a toe twitch, dream, or vision), to send it in as a tip even if not fully baked.
For all you know, your tidbit might just be the piece of data LE needs. If it isn’t a Martian sighting or a “vision”, email it in!
Make sure it’s grounded in fact or First person observation.

amateur opinion and speculation

 

[Yemelyan]

I would encourage anyone with a reasonable suspicion/piece of info (based on something Material-(not a toe twitch, dream, or vision), to send it in as a tip even if not fully baked.
For all you know, your tidbit might just be the piece of data LE needs. If it isn’t a Martian sighting or a “vision”, email it in!
Make sure it’s grounded in fact or First person observation.

amateur opinion and speculation

"Grounded in fact or first person observation" - yes, please!

LE have made it clear they are looking for a name or identity and a reasonable fact about the person's whereabouts on the day in question or connection to Delphi.

They don't want "investigative tips" like "have you checked all the traffic cameras in Delphi" or "he could be wearing this brand of fanny pack." All of that stuff, they are ready on it.

 

[St. Anthony2017]

Has anyone sent in tips based on the Facebook posts, Websleuths, Reddit, Instagram posts,etc. where you don’t know the person except through their mention in this case and you keep going back to see what they have posted? What likelihood is it that BG posts online in your opinion? Do you think he just reads all our posts or has he participated in discussions or made comments?

I have a few POI I check on a regular basis and have sent in tips from their posts which I found suspicious. Even though I don’t know them personally I think a person can slip up when he posts comments,photos, etc. that he doesn’t realize might incriminate him. What do you think?

 

[somequestions]

I was yet again thinking on the two sketches. I can understand different witnesses having different perspectives on age, face shape, eye set, lip size or ear position etc...so ISP Carter's statement that killer could be a combination of both sketches while maddening is still understandable at that level.

What really doesn't jive in the whole could be a combination talk is the fact that one sketch is clean shaven while the other has what looks like a very well looked after goatee. I don't think BG paused to shave or apply facial hair while on the trail system. Some might say it's possible he had a disguise on and stripped it down but I believe the NBG (clean shaven) witness was the first to see BG, so after that, while on the trails, he would of had to put the facial hair on. Can't believe I'm even saying that for it sounds so artificial and ridiculous.

That leaves me with a pretty firm stance of there's no way OBG and NBG sketches are of the same man. Clean shaven or sporting coiffed facial hair are two very easy, and no pun intended, in-your-face things for witnesses to notice at a glance. AJMO

If you look up the CrimeCon panel discussion from Nashville in 2018, they discussed sketches. The main thing to come out of the discussion is that there were many sketches. Libby's grandfather was a potential sketch as well as the lead investigator as well as countless others. Anyone who was out on the trails that day became a suspect to the average amateur online detective because if he looked remotely like the man on the bridge from Liberty German's phone video, then it could possibly be the right person.

On the panel, they remark how they had to go through and eliminate people to sketch because of how people could not correlate the difference between being out on the trail after approximately 3 pm that day with being the bridge guy. So of course people like Libby's grandfather were out there because he was helping search for his granddaughter. People have even turned in people on youtube as possibly being the bridge guy.

The two sketches released could very well just be people law enforcement has not been able to eliminate. And I think that scares people because of what it means.

It means that not only may law enforcement not know who killed Abigail Williams and Liberty German, they may also not know what he looks like. I think that scares people because how can you send in a tip about someone and their description if you do not know who you are looking for?

Then the only way the case may get solved is either through some type of forensic evidence or someone being able to distinguish the grainy video from Liberty German's phone. So I think people want to believe that the sketch or sketches are correct. But as time passes, it becomes harder to believe this case will be solved because of them.

 

[somequestions]

I would encourage anyone with a reasonable suspicion/piece of info (based on something Material-(not a toe twitch, dream, or vision), to send it in as a tip even if not fully baked.
For all you know, your tidbit might just be the piece of data LE needs. If it isn’t a Martian sighting or a “vision”, email it in!
Make sure it’s grounded in fact or First person observation.

amateur opinion and speculation

Aren't the tips going to be based on either the sketches or Liberty German's video?

I like to base mine on Liberty German's video. Others may base theirs on the sketches. In my mind, bridge guy is an older man who has shorter legs, larger torso, and is kind of heavyset in the middle. Based on my description, I know I could probably find a version of bridge guy to turn in as a tip at Walmart and numerous other places.

I do not live near Delphi, Indiana, but I did see a guy the other day that looked like the bridge guy in a store I was at. I thought about turning him in by following him and trying to get his name and license plate number, but since I have already sent in 5 tips about a man who I thought was the bridge guy, I decided not to do so. He was not wearing the same clothing as the video, but that could be because he got rid of it after the crime. I think clothing is important because people tend to wear the same things sometimes. My original tip I sent 5 times was based primarily on the clothing, when I first glanced at bridge guy from Liberty German's video on the news the very first time I saw this case on the news.

So should I send in a tip every time I see someone who I think looks like the bridge guy from Liberty German's phone video/audio? LE tends to want to be able to eliminate tips or else they just receive thousands of them. And if the sketches are incorrect, all those tips may end up being useless. Only time will tell if LE ends up being correct about their description of the on the bridge captured on Liberty German's phone.

 

[MistyWaters]

Has anyone sent in tips based on the Facebook posts, Websleuths, Reddit, Instagram posts,etc. where you don’t know the person except through their mention in this case and you keep going back to see what they have posted? What likelihood is it that BG posts online in your opinion? Do you think he just reads all our posts or has he participated in discussions or made comments?

I have a few POI I check on a regular basis and have sent in tips from their posts which I found suspicious. Even though I don’t know them personally I think a person can slip up when he posts comments,photos, etc. that he doesn’t realize might incriminate him. What do you think?

JMO but when hidden behind anonymous monikers, people play all kinds of games with each other, sometimes even posting in a manner to attract attention/suspicion. But if you feel something warrants a tip, it’s up to you.

Below is what LE considers a good tip. Clearly tips where the tipster knows the potential suspect are the most valuable to them.

Three Years Later: Everything we know about the murders of Libby German & Abby Williams in Delphi
Investigators have shared insight into what makes a good, solid tip.

That includes things like:

• Suspect Name
• Date of Birth or Approximate Age
• Physical Description (i.e. height, weight, hair color, eye color)
• Specific Address or Location Last Seen
• Specific Vehicle Descriptions (i.e. license plate, year, make, model, color)
• Specific Reason for Tip (i.e. Why could they be the suspect?
• Motivation for Crime
• Connection to Delphi

 

[CCJD]

Three Years Later: Everything we know about the murders of Libby German & Abby Williams in Delphi
Investigators have shared insight into what makes a good, solid tip.

That includes things like:

• Suspect Name
• Date of Birth or Approximate Age
• Physical Description (i.e. height, weight, hair color, eye color)
• Specific Address or Location Last Seen
• Specific Vehicle Descriptions (i.e. license plate, year, make, model, color)
• Specific Reason for Tip (i.e. Why could they be the suspect?
• Motivation for Crime
• Connection to Delphi

rsbm

On the flip side, also from the above link:

While police continue their search for the Delphi killer, people across the country have been coming up with their own theories about who is responsible. Investigators say speculations, rumors and comparisons can actually do more to hinder the investigation than to help it.
bbm

 

[MistyWaters]

Aren't the tips going to be based on either the sketches or Liberty German's video?

I like to base mine on Liberty German's video. Others may base theirs on the sketches. In my mind, bridge guy is an older man who has shorter legs, larger torso, and is kind of heavyset in the middle. Based on my description, I know I could probably find a version of bridge guy to turn in as a tip at Walmart and numerous other places.

I do not live near Delphi, Indiana, but I did see a guy the other day that looked like the bridge guy in a store I was at. I thought about turning him in by following him and trying to get his name and license plate number, but since I have already sent in 5 tips about a man who I thought was the bridge guy, I decided not to do so. He was not wearing the same clothing as the video, but that could be because he got rid of it after the crime.

So should I send in a tip every time I see someone who I think looks like the bridge guy from Liberty German's phone video/audio?

Maybe just my impression, but by the oft repeated ask for tips from “somebody who knows this person” I think the word “knows” isn’t intended to be synonymous for “looks like”. Otherwise LE would ask for tips from anybody who sees a person who resembles the photo. For example I might see somebody in a grocery store or on the street in the city where I live and they’d be what I’d define as a stranger, somebody I don’t know at all.

More than three years out, the odds of the suspect looking exactly like the photo/video are becoming slimmer and slimmer, as time goes on IMO. (Not to suggest the killer has lost weight.)

But LE has asked for tips so if anybody has good reason to forward one, that’s exactly what you should do. It up to LE to decide if it’s something they’re interested in.

 

[Yemelyan]

Aren't the tips going to be based on either the sketches or Liberty German's video?

No. Not necessarily those alone. The FBI gave a list of other things to think about, such as: do you know someone who had an excuse that day about why they weren't where they said they would be, and the more you think about it, the excuse does not hold water? Is there a person in your life who either follows the news about the murders obsessively OR never wants to talk about it? Is there someone you know who didn't abuse alcohol or drugs before February 13th but now does?

All of the traits and characteristics people were asked to think about involved "is there a person you KNOW." I can walk into the closest Wal-Mart and find 5 men who look like the sketches/video. I can search Facebook profiles of men who live near Delphi and find men who look like the sketch in five minutes. I don't know anything about them or their whereabouts that day.

Tipping someone whose name you don't know and connection to Delphi is unknown is probably not a useful tip, unfortunately. But you have to go with your conscience, as others have said.

 

[somequestions]

Maybe just my impression, but by the oft repeated ask for tips from “somebody who knows this person” I think the word “knows” isn’t intended to be synonymous for “looks like”. Otherwise LE would ask for tips from anybody who sees a person who resembles the photo. For example I might see somebody in a grocery store or on the street in the city where I live and they’d be what I’d define as a stranger, somebody I don’t know at all.

More than three years out, the odds of the suspect looking exactly like the photo/video are becoming slimmer and slimmer, as time goes on IMO. (Not to suggest the killer has lost weight.)

But LE has asked for tips so if anybody has good reason to forward one, that’s exactly what you should do. It up to LE to decide if it’s something they’re interested in.

I agree that LE has consistently asked for tips from "somebody who knows this person". The one thing I clearly stated when I sent in my tip 5 times about the trucker I saw was that I did not know who he was. All I sent in was an approximate description. I thought Liberty German probably took video of someone she did not know.

So the way I rationalized sending my tip in was that my tip was of someone I saw before February 13, 2017.

 

[margarita25]

I used to think, contrary to many folks here, that LE did NOT have a specific person in mind, and was NOT appealing for information about a specific person in order to help build their case and make that arrest.

However, there was a quote from Leazenby, iirc, in the recent article via Kelsie, which really made me wonder. Unfortunately, it was just one quote with no further context:

“Carroll County Sheriff Tobe Leazenby stressed that acting on incomplete evidence might weaken the prosecution’s case, potentially spoiling the one chance to imprison the killer.

“If a prosecutor doesn’t get it right the first time, that’s our only chance,” the sheriff said. “We want justice for Abby and Libby. But we don’t want to do it at the expense of potentially losing the criminal case in our courtroom.””

Source:

A new path

June 5, 2020 newspaper interview with Kelsi German

Maybe this is just a general statement, but it did make me wonder if they DO have a suspect in mind.

 

[Ozoner]

I used to think, contrary to many folks here, that LE did NOT have a specific person in mind, and was NOT appealing for information about a specific person in order to help build their case and make that arrest.

However, there was a quote from Leazenby, iirc, in the recent article via Kelsie, which really made me wonder. Unfortunately, it was just one quote with no further context:

“Carroll County Sheriff Tobe Leazenby stressed that acting on incomplete evidence might weaken the prosecution’s case, potentially spoiling the one chance to imprison the killer.

“If a prosecutor doesn’t get it right the first time, that’s our only chance,” the sheriff said. “We want justice for Abby and Libby. But we don’t want to do it at the expense of potentially losing the criminal case in our courtroom.””

Source:


Maybe this is just a general statement, but it did make me wonder if they DO have a suspect in mind.

I agree with you 100%. The idea that LE had someone specific in mind is nonsensical on many levels.

 

[Yemelyan]

I wanted to introduce a topic here that I don't know if we've discussed. Is anyone familiar with the concept of solvability factors and how they are used during a preliminary crime investigation?

I copied this list from a police procedure manual that you can find through a Google search. The 12 solvability factors are:

Solvability factors include witnesses to the crime, knowledge of a suspect's name, knowledge of where a suspect can be located, description of a suspect, identification of a suspect, property with identifiable characteristics, a significant modus operandi, significant physical evidence, description of suspect's vehicle, positive results from a crime-scene evidence search, and belief that a crime may be solved with publicity or reasonable additional investigative effort.

Both the DA and members of LE have since expressed that in the early days of the investigation, they thought the case would be solved in a matter of days or weeks. So I'm wondering which of these solvability factors they were basing that on, and then where things got stalled. IMO at the least they had what they thought was significant physical crime scene evidence.

I remember when I first heard that there was a video and an audio clip. I actually felt relief because I believed there was no way BG could escape with that much "evidence" out there. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it's really worthwhile to understanding cases like Delphi if you can read a summary of the Child Abduction Murder Study by Brown and Keppel. This study found that physical evidence from the crime scene did not increase a case's solvability by very much at all! This shocked me. The biggest factor in case solvability was establishing if there was a prior relationship between the victim and the murderer. And if one didn't exist (it was a "stranger abduction"), solvability remained very, very low in spite of good forensic evidence in the firm of hair, fibers, DNA, etc.

 

[Deleted member 102539]

LE have made it clear they are looking for a name or identity and a reasonable fact about the person's whereabouts on the day in question or connection to Delphi.

For WSers and being not from Delphi, it might be the biggest hurdle, unfortunately.

 

[JnRyan]

If you look up the CrimeCon panel discussion from Nashville in 2018, they discussed sketches. The main thing to come out of the discussion is that there were many sketches. Libby's grandfather was a potential sketch as well as the lead investigator as well as countless others. Anyone who was out on the trails that day became a suspect to the average amateur online detective because if he looked remotely like the man on the bridge from Liberty German's phone video, then it could possibly be the right person.

On the panel, they remark how they had to go through and eliminate people to sketch because of how people could not correlate the difference between being out on the trail after approximately 3 pm that day with being the bridge guy. So of course people like Libby's grandfather were out there because he was helping search for his granddaughter. People have even turned in people on youtube as possibly being the bridge guy.

The two sketches released could very well just be people law enforcement has not been able to eliminate. And I think that scares people because of what it means.

It means that not only may law enforcement not know who killed Abigail Williams and Liberty German, they may also not know what he looks like. I think that scares people because how can you send in a tip about someone and their description if you do not know who you are looking for?

Then the only way the case may get solved is either through some type of forensic evidence or someone being able to distinguish the grainy video from Liberty German's phone. So I think people want to believe that the sketch or sketches are correct. But as time passes, it becomes harder to believe this case will be solved because of them.

Yes, absolutely, I agree with your analysis. The sketches are not of someone seen committing the crime or leaving the direct scene of the crime, but rather persons LE has not been able to eliminate.

 

[rosesfromangels]

Aren't the tips going to be based on either the sketches or Liberty German's video?

I like to base mine on Liberty German's video. Others may base theirs on the sketches. In my mind, bridge guy is an older man who has shorter legs, larger torso, and is kind of heavyset in the middle. Based on my description, I know I could probably find a version of bridge guy to turn in as a tip at Walmart and numerous other places.

I do not live near Delphi, Indiana, but I did see a guy the other day that looked like the bridge guy in a store I was at. I thought about turning him in by following him and trying to get his name and license plate number, but since I have already sent in 5 tips about a man who I thought was the bridge guy, I decided not to do so. He was not wearing the same clothing as the video, but that could be because he got rid of it after the crime. I think clothing is important because people tend to wear the same things sometimes. My original tip I sent 5 times was based primarily on the clothing, when I first glanced at bridge guy from Liberty German's video on the news the very first time I saw this case on the news.

So should I send in a tip every time I see someone who I think looks like the bridge guy from Liberty German's phone video/audio? LE tends to want to be able to eliminate tips or else they just receive thousands of them. And if the sketches are incorrect, all those tips may end up being useless. Only time will tell if LE ends up being correct about their description of the on the bridge captured on Liberty German's phone.

If @Kell1 happens to pop back in, I think their response to your question is x1000+ more valuable than mine.

However, that’s never stopped me from conjuring up an amateur opinion, so here’s another! I can only speak to my own experience.

A few years ago, I came up with an amateur speculation on a pertinent point in a case. People dismissed me, but I felt a sort of panicky feeling and knew I was right.

I enlisted some folks who were local to the situation to do some foot work for me. I was almost frantic at this point. They couldn’t prove out my speculation. Fast forward to a few weeks later. My speculation was spooky accurate. So never ignore that demanding feeling because you don’t want to look like a crackpot.

We have incredible deductive reasoning skills that sometimes defy conventional thinking. If it’s compelling you, driving you bonkers, send it in. Just have some rational explanations, no woo-woo stuff.

amateur opinion and speculation

 

[margarita25]

I wanted to introduce a topic here that I don't know if we've discussed. Is anyone familiar with the concept of solvability factors and how they are used during a preliminary crime investigation?

I copied this list from a police procedure manual that you can find through a Google search. The 12 solvability factors are:

Solvability factors include witnesses to the crime, knowledge of a suspect's name, knowledge of where a suspect can be located, description of a suspect, identification of a suspect, property with identifiable characteristics, a significant modus operandi, significant physical evidence, description of suspect's vehicle, positive results from a crime-scene evidence search, and belief that a crime may be solved with publicity or reasonable additional investigative effort.

Both the DA and members of LE have since expressed that in the early days of the investigation, they thought the case would be solved in a matter of days or weeks. So I'm wondering which of these solvability factors they were basing that on, and then where things got stalled. IMO at the least they had what they thought was significant physical crime scene evidence.

I remember when I first heard that there was a video and an audio clip. I actually felt relief because I believed there was no way BG could escape with that much "evidence" out there. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it's really worthwhile to understanding cases like Delphi if you can read a summary of the Child Abduction Murder Study by Brown and Keppel. This study found that physical evidence from the crime scene did not increase a case's solvability by very much at all! This shocked me. The biggest factor in case solvability was establishing if there was a prior relationship between the victim and the murderer. And if one didn't exist (it was a "stranger abduction"), solvability remained very, very low in spite of good forensic evidence in the firm of hair, fibers, DNA, etc.

Child Abduction Murder: The Impact of Forensic Evidence on Solvability - PubMed
Katherine M Brown et al. J Forensic Sci. 2012 Mar.

 

[JnRyan]

Here is an interesting article on the greeting, "Hey, Guys". Since this is part of what this killer said, I found it interesting. I've only read through it once and didn't come up with any take-aways that might be relevant here. But, hey guys, maybe some of you will.
The Problem With ‘Hey Guys’