Hi Nin,
Your question about risk started me thinking about the entire notion of "risk" and what place it has in our thinking and our culture. Specifically, how do people like SKs think about risk - if at all? There are entire professions and businesses that are run using the mathematics of risk (insurance, gambling, market trading, weather, etc.), and that I can understand, but I cannot imagine what any kind of murderer would be thinking in any situation, much less how they process situational risk.
For some people, thinking through a risk involves almost magical thinking - e.g., if I sneak downstairs to get get a piece of cake in the middle of the night, what are the chances that Mom will catch me and punish me for it? A child pondering such a question would no doubt engage in some fairly magical thought processes. On the other side of the coin, there are people who, as adults, really calculate quite clearly and coldly what the risk of capture/consequence/loss/success would be if they, say, stole a car.
But thinking about getting caught for a brutal murder and/or SA ? I really can't fathom how that would go. I am sure that some of our national LE agencies have some fairly sophisticated software devoted to the assessment of risk of certain behaviors, from terrorism to murder. And I'd really like to know if those gov't resources are being devoted to help with this case. And if there are any good studies already published that cover this subject.
MOO