IN - Lauren Spierer, 20, Bloomington, 03 June 2011 - #16

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I wonder what route did she take from smallwood to JR's the first time she went their.Did she go up college or go thru the alley?If she went thru the alley you would figure the dog would pick up the scent thru the parking lot from that trip?If she went up college the first time with DR and walked back on college the second time according to JR why did she walk thru the alley with CR?

Maybe they went through the alley on account of the confrontation that occurred, to avoid further contact with that group. Or if whatever "activity" LE refers to is not something you'd want to do on the street.
 
John Douglas, the FBI profiler, wrote a bit in one of his books about the innocent people that get high powered attorneys, and the psychology behind it. And lo and behold, the type of person he described fits JR's father to a T. Wealthy, high level management or CEO etc. Seems that they are used to delegating responsibilities to experts, relying on experts to make important decisions and therefore, feel the need to contact an attorney much sooner than your average joe. He defends the practice of having an attorney speak for you, and does not see it as an indication of guilt in this type of person.
 
It is a big deal for several reasons:

Many volunteers, professionals, and agencies are utilizing vast amounts of resources to find this child.

Yes, but these cases are rare. We pay our taxes, and we want LE to work on resolving these situations.


Many people are putting a great amount of time and effort into trying to make sense of what few FACTS are available.

Yes, FEW facts.

There is absolutely nothing in the released evidence that indicates LS was ever planning, attempting, or even considering sneaking out of the city of Bloomington to go anywhere.

And, there is no evidence that she was doing hard drugs, or that her friends were dealers, or that they dumped her body. Given no evidence, why assume the most terrible possibility?




If there were ANY indication whatsoever that LS were in another state or in another country then this case would automatically fall under F.B.I. jurisdiction.

No problem.


The F.B.I has acknowledged that this is BPD's case.

Link?

That statement would not necessarily mean that they know that LS is dead and that her death took place in Bloomington.

You spoke of a 20 yr old not necessarily communicating with her family on a daily basis....Lauren's MOTHER says she did.

The phone calls could not prevent someone from running away.

I did not deny that LS & her parents talked on the phone everyday, just that it seemed a bit much.



While your theory is not impossible, it directly contradicts known facts.

What facts are being contradicted?


So...if all you want to do is show us all that she COULD be in Israel then congrads you've completed your task.

Suppose every poster on the board wrote the same post which said "her friends dumped her body." Hundreds and hundreds of posts all saying the same thing. Would that be useful to read? I don't think so.

However, your arguments do not serve to disprove that she isn't in Tibet, Ireland, Australia, or Africa.

To the extent of my knowledge, LS did not travel to any of those places, nor did she have intense interest in those locations. But I have mentioned NY, LA, PA and esp. NYC and Westchester County. Israel was her most recent destination though.


You spoke of cost/reward ratios. IF you are wrong and LS is not in Israel, and she hasn't fallen into some unseen dark place that we haven't thought to search, then it is likely that a kidnapper or killer is roaming free...and we don't know what their intent is.

But it's not a zero-sum game. If someone were to write some media articles to gain publicity in Israel or conduct a volunteer search, nothing would be lost. Even if she were not to be found in Israel, the Israeli public would still benefit from the information gained.



Do we direct our scarce resources to searching Israel in HOPE that she's there or do we follow the lead of LE and search for evidence that will lead to LS or a suspect here and possibly remove a perp from the streets before they harm another child.
Where do you see the most value?

Again the strawman: we can't even think about the "child" being in Israel, because then we would be required to spend hundreds of thousands to sent the entire BPD over there, and it would cost too much.

We don't really know what LE thinks happened that morning; therefore, we cannot follow their lead, nor is it important for us to do so.
 
In talking stranger abduction *I wouldn't discount the Amethyst House(outpatient methadone) as a very real possibility of somewhat questionable people being in the area...
Yes, at 4:30am especially.. There are people from very small towns, counties, etc that number 1 travel great distances to these type methadone clinics and 2 the pre-morning rush of patients is quite large.. As they not only have possibly somewhat good distance to get back to where they came from, but also be back in time for their possibly very early morning time that their job hours begin...
 
Statement: "It would be very far outside the "norm" for her to abandon everyone she knows and everything that she owns for any reason."

Response: "Her college friends all turning out to be raving dope fiends who kill her and dump her body in the lake is outside the norm, too. "

This is fantastic - absolutely no sarcasm on my part, whatsoever.

I read that Lauren's grandparents and JR's grandparents lived across the street from each other. As HT said, they all went to camp together. You have no idea how close kids get at camp. Additionally, they have all been together at school for the last couple of years. Put this way "raving dope fiends who kill her and dump her body in the lake" sounds soooo unlikely.
 
Pigeon Hill. What a coinkydink that you ask because I searched there and beyond in my car yesterday for at least an hour. Roughly it starts at 11th to 17th; from the west it begins about two blocks from 5 North.

It's the bad part of town. It contains Crestmont Park, a large subsidized housing project where I would suspect that crime and drugs are an issue, but I honestly don't know. (I don't read the local newspaper much.) The homes are small, old, many unkempt with junk and trash but some with charm and potential. I think the residents are a mix of retired, lower income/unemployed, singles and small families. There are some misc. apartment buildings but doubt that many professionals or students live there.

Yesterday I discovered Arlington Park, a very dark, old mobile home park. I've lived in Btown for years and years. I never even knew it existed. I drove through it and up down streets around it. I kept seeing locked sheds and old parked cars...I saw a tent bunched up next to a shed and a car trailer behind a house and it made me think of Jacee Dugard (I think is her name).

You get the pic.
Thank you for doing this! :)

I really appreciate the locals and non-locals who are helping find Lauren and especially the WS locals doing same. :)

Wish I could be there in person to help.

About Lauren going to Israel...I do not think that she would let her family and friends worry themselves crazy. Lauren just doesn't seem like the kind of person who could do that. For some reason, Lauren is unable to contact them or get a message to them. :(

May Lauren be found safe...SOON.
 
Some questions regarding "dog losing scent" and theories around that.....

1. If this is true, then it probably means one of four things:
a. LS was abducted on the way to 5 North.
b. LS left 5 N, walked down to the corner of College, as supposedly witnessed by JR, then for some reason walked back down into the alley and was abducted later.
c. LS was walking to 5 North (I'm assuming with CR) and someone -CR? carried her for a portion of the journey. Perhaps the dogs just weren't that well trained to pick up scents in the air.
d. LS did go to 5 North, where she possibly OD/d. They carried her to the alley, where a car was waiting to take her away.

Let's get back on track and pick apart this "dog losing scent"/abduction theory. I will start:

a. If this is true, then why would three boys each supposedly state that she made it to their place? Honestly, I struggle with this one a lot. So LS is walking back with CR and by coincidence, there's a car waiting for her, she's abducted, he gets amnesia, then 2 other boys claim that she brought him home, then went to JR's? Seems ODD. The only way I can buy this one is IF (and I think this is a strong possibility that I've tossed out before) the people waiting in that alley who may have taken LS were somehow connected to drugs or to whatever reason CR was hit in the first place. If she was taken for reasons that would scare those boys, I could see them making up a story. If someone high up in drugs saw CR walking with a girl, they may have assumed she was his gf and abducted her to get back at him. This could also be what the fight was over.

b. This would mean LS would have walked clear to the corner, then turned around and gone all the way back to the alley (after turning the corner) OR walked down to the next crossroads, then cross back to the alley, then head BACK up towards JR's to have been abducted near the gravel area, right? This doesn't make sense....unless as she was walking back, she realized that she didn't have her keys and thought she should go back to JR's since he'd probably still be awake??

c. I think this is unlikely b/c I believe most dogs can still detect her scent.

d. I think this is unlikely too. Would they really risk being seen carrying her? If they took her away, wouldn't they just pull the car up as close to 5 North as possible?

I think that if someone drove her away (dead or alive), it wasn't done that night. I just don't think there'd be all that many cars on the streets between 3-5 AM. I think LE would have been able to notice if ANY of those POI's cars were in a video. My guess is that if she was driven off, it was done later that morning, when there would be more cars on the streets. I wonder if LE have even searched the videos for later that day? I also think it's entirely possible that JR or someone could have taken the body on his way home.

I still go back to the drug connection. I believe TG alluded here that the fight supposedly had nothing to do with Lauren, nor were the fighters sent over by JW. There is SOME reason that those boys had an issue with CR and all I can think of is drugs at the moment. If something was big enough to warrant a punch in the face, it could have been big enough to warrant something more.
 
Regarding dire endings in missing persons cases: just recently there were two cases of young women gone missing, and both of them ended up returning home safely (Valerie and Kristian, I think). In both cases, I couldn't find any further details of what happened. I refer to these incidents just to reinforce the idea that she could be alive and well and that not all missing persons cases end in death. I say a prayer for her every day that she is found soon and is alive.
 
originally posted by darcyline and snipped for the specific meaning

is her medicine really missing? Is it confirmed that she was escorted out of Kilroy's for being too drunk/wasted? DId police really confirm the 338 sighting?

Sorry only able to check in UN-regularly on the thread.. That said I am wondering about these exact details that Darcyline has posted ^above^ ..

Do we know for a fact that her Long QT's meds are indeed missing as well???

Was it ever confirmed she that Lauren was "bounced" from Kilroy's Bar for her being so intoxicated???

And then lAstly when did LE verify the 3:38am sighting??

If anyone has any or all links please point me in the correct station.. With there being so very many facts that we DO NOT know for certain that I would love to have any of these either not involved in any way or confirmed that they are indeed related to the case..

TIA..
 
Looking at all the young, beautiful girls who just vanish;

Kara Kopetsky, Lauren Sperier, Holly Bobo, Brittanee Drexel

and that's only four who have gotten some media attention,
does anyone think that a prostitution cartel could be kidnapping these girls? And maybe they aren't just taking females, there are so many males who go missing too, maybe they are falling victim to it too. People don't just vanish without a trace. What else could it be? Are these cases really not connected at all? They seem way too alike to not be, I mean young, beautiful, and poof, gone. No evidence. No witnesses. Idk, maybe I'm reading too much in to this. Any thoughts?
 
Sigh. I read a lot on here, post a lot less. This thread was going in what I felt was a positive, productive direction. I don't feel that way anymore. I 100% support differences of opinions - and often play devil's advocate in defense of less popular theories. It's what makes Websleuths such a great place.

However, I also thought that the point of a moderated discussion was to keep things on track - despite the fact that we may have very different opinions on what may have happened, we were all working towards a common good - discussing evidence, supporting claims with substantiated links, etc etc. I simply do not understand how one belief - which is also completely unsubstantiated, could derail an entire discussion. When you add to that the fact that quite a few posters of the Jewish faith have noted that they are personally offended by what could be perceived as derogatory undercurrents of these assumptions, I truly don't understand why this is allowed to continue.

Not trying to add fuel to a fire. I just always loved WS because we existed in a place where we could be diverse without feeling marginalized. Why are we allowing this topic to be derailed, especially when it offends quite a few members religious backgrounds and heritage? I like things better when we act like a family - even when it means friendly debates and arguments. This is a little different, IMO.

Peace.
 
Since there are some way out theories being discussed it helps to remember just because we don't know something doesn't mean it's not known to LE.

I'd wager most of the way out stuff was put to bed rather easily by LE just by some of the easiest checks imaginable.

The reason speculation centers on something bad happening to LS is because she disappeared 'off the street' (so to speak). She didn't just leave her apartment one day and never come back. She was in the midst of an evening out, going until the wee hours, and just never returned to her apartment.

Speculation that has her meeting friends for a ride away from Bloomington, taking a taxi, hopping a plane, etc. just don't make sense given what is known and what would likely fall in LE's lap if it happened that way. There are several reports about partying that night and absolutely none about her being depressed, having family problems, acting distant in recent days, talking to friends about far away places, map searches, etc.. And even if there was any of that, would she leave after a long night of partying? ...And without ANY possessions?

Also, when thinking outside the box it's best not to lose sight of the box in the first place. I don't think this case necessarily needs implausible leaps, conspiracy theories (especially large ones), or complicated scenarios. The simple ones could hold the key.

I don't think any disposing of a body has to involve much skill or criminal background. Putting the body in a dumpster that ultimately got dumped before being checked would be simple enough in any scenario. That might not take planning... just luck on the part of the perpetrator. I opined several posts back that she could've been put in a dumpster by someone fully expecting someone else would find the body but with the idea they'd make up an alibi or never be considered in the first place. Then lo and behold, maybe the dumpster gets emptied and nobody notices.

As mentioned, we don't know what LE really knows. A lot of speculation would probably change if we could see the video of her in the alley. For one thing, seeing how she was acting as far as sobriety (ability to walk (if she could walk at all)) could ultimately put several stories from 5 North in question... or add to some or all of their credibility. How is CR acting in the video? Is anyone else in the video? LE knows those answers.

What does LE really know about the 3:38AM sighting and witness report? We know the double-talk we heard (that said nothing at all) but we don't know how they really reconcile that sighting and report.

CR has a suspicious story (blackout) and JR has the problem of being the last known person to see her. Motive? OD- panic... accident... drugging-OD... date rape scenario... All possible but so far (as far as we know) no evidence to back any of those up. Opportunity? It would appear the answer to that is yes there would've been opportunity.

Meanwhile, the jealous boyfriend scenario can't be excluded by what we know. He'd have motive. Statistically, he has to be high on the list. But we have no idea about opportunity because we don't know the credibility of his alibi. LE should have a much clearer picture of that.

As for the talk of drug lords... IMHO that's a little over the top. That's TV and movie stuff, not probably something going on in the lives of these college kids. There may be people who'd be that ruthless in the chain somewhere (but much closer to the manufacturing level, not the local dealer network (whatever that may be)). By the time anything has gotten to Bloomington I think you're not going to be dealing with cold blooded killers or people who'd want anything to do with becoming part of a coverup and further crime. These aren't people who have 100's upon 100's of thousands of dollars on the line with incentive to kidnap people or put a horse's head in bed with someone to make a point. These would just be 'dealers' who deal to support their own habits, far removed from the hierarchy of the drug trade. Dealers buying from dealers buying from dealers buying from dealers....

The only thing that talk does is make me wonder about gang activity in Bloomington and wonder if there's any possible connection there? But IMHO that is still over the top thinking. The simple answer, perhaps even the simplest answer, is still likely to be where the truth really is.
 
Sigh. I read a lot on here, post a lot less. This thread was going in what I felt was a positive, productive direction. I don't feel that way anymore. I 100% support differences of opinions - and often play devil's advocate in defense of less popular theories. It's what makes Websleuths such a great place.

However, I also thought that the point of a moderated discussion was to keep things on track - despite the fact that we may have very different opinions on what may have happened, we were all working towards a common good - discussing evidence, supporting claims with substantiated links, etc etc. I simply do not understand how one belief - which is also completely unsubstantiated, could derail an entire discussion. When you add to that the fact that quite a few posters of the Jewish faith have noted that they are personally offended by what could be perceived as derogatory undercurrents of these assumptions, I truly don't understand why this is allowed to continue.

Not trying to add fuel to a fire. I just always loved WS because we existed in a place where we could be diverse without feeling marginalized. Why are we allowing this topic to be derailed, especially when it offends quite a few members religious backgrounds and heritage? I like things better when we act like a family - even when it means friendly debates and arguments. This is a little different, IMO.

Peace.
I didn't feel that we got derailed...I just wanted to post my opinion that it's doubtful to me that Lauren left willingly to <do whatever and go wherever> and would not have contacted her family by now.

WS is a community and we're all part of that community.

Myself...I try to "take" what works (for me) and leave the rest. :)
 
Agree wholeheartedly with akh that LE knows many things that we do not know.

Most of the details we have are from a couple sources.

MSM interviews with HT, for instance, seem to provide many details but are mostly hearsay. Even then, MSM gets the details confused. Sometimes you hear that someone from the bar texted JW to get the phone in response to his texting and sometimes someone from the bar called him.

MSM is highly inaccurate in all written articles and I take all of them with a grain of salt. This is the worse reporting of all time.

Other hearsay comes from the PT board. The PT board is the source of much of the info about ZO and his motives for the punch, word about the party culture at IU, gossip about the disbarred frat and the subsequent underground frat and general discussion of people's characters.

There are people on this forum who have gone to the PT board and also to TG's blog site. TG mines the PT board as well as FB and Twitter. All hearsay.

TG has accounts on his blog of a "person close to the investigation" who says LS was at the bar drunk and talking of being high on xanax and cocaine, this source says she was in the bar alone (not with CR), and that she was thrown out because of her condition. Since he doesn't identify the source or give any other information in this regard, hard to know if it's a good one or not.

TG is also the main vehicle for the bar manager witness (the 3:38 mystery man tale) but she will no longer talk to him. "Someone got to her."

The only trustworthy details come from PD, sparse as they are, and those should be gleaned from the videos of the PCs because the print media is so unreliable, IMO. The PD said early on that they had searched apartments and cars and gotten DNA samples. PD has given us an official timeline.

Other than that, we just don't have many details. That's why I don't mind listening to any and all theories. That's why we're here. But we're not supposed to be rude to one another, right?
 
Even though I have no theory about this case as yet and even though
I see nothing conclusive as yet that points to an adult runaway situation
or a 'time out' either it remains a plausible theory until evidence
rules it out.

I just wanted to post in support of everyone being able to put forth
a theory until evidence rules out their theory.

In some past cases on Websleuths I have posted a runaway theory
but I have also had cases where I posted a theory of foul play
and even some posts about accident as being responsible for a missing
person.

It is not unheard of to have missing persons turn up alive & well,
even living in another country in some instances.
(This is not a comment for or against anyone's recent theories but
just pointing out what has turned out to be true in some past cases.)

In this case it seems that LE suspects foul play (thay have said so in MSM
news stories) but I hope they have more evidence to go on than we
have seen in those stories in the news (it has certainly been hinted
in some of those stories that LE has information not being released to the
public.)

The evidence I have seen in the public MSM news stories so far
does not give enough information to tip the scales solidly to foul play,
runaway, or even accident so far.

Until solid evidence surfaces for one possibility I ,for one, intend to
respectfully read all theories and reflect on the logic & also to reflect
on the supporting evidence and reflect on
past cases I have read about to see if such things have indeed
happened in past cases.

For now I am letting some time pass to see what evidence shakes loose
and just reading & reflecting.
 
Yes, but these cases are rare. We pay our taxes, and we want LE to work on resolving these situations.


What do you think LE is doing? If you don't feel you're getting YOUR moneys worth then by all means call BPD and tell them that.


Take a look at the news. These kinds of cases are not rare, Read back a couple threads, do a Google search, ask your local F.B.I. office.
These case are piling up all over the country.



[/quote]And, there is no evidence that she was doing hard drugs, or that her friends were dealers, or that they dumped her body. Given no evidence, why assume the most terrible possibility?[/quote]

Not everyone does. Why so much protest you can always use that ignore button right?


[/quote]That statement would not necessarily mean that they know that LS is dead and that her death took place in Bloomington.[/quote]

We only know that they are focusing the search locally and that includes fields, woods, and water. What do you think it proposes?

[/quote]I did not deny that LS & her parents talked on the phone everyday, just that it seemed a bit much.[/quote]

The context of your statement at the time implied that you thought it was not true.
This puts what you believe in direct conflict with what LS's mother says to be true.


[/quote]What facts are being contradicted?[/quote]


The fact that there is absolutely no indication of LS leaving the country.
The fact that her family claims to have had daily contact with her. You cannot just disregard that.
The fact that the F.B.I. have not taken jurisdiction in this case meaning there is no indication that LS has left Indiana.
I called and spoke with F.B.I. in Bloomington three weeks ago and was told this fact over the phone...so no link.,..but you can call and verify it for yourself.




[/quote]Suppose every poster on the board wrote the same post which said "her friends dumped her body." Hundreds and hundreds of posts all saying the same thing. Would that be useful to read? I don't think so.[/quote]

No, it would be as useless as chasing non-existing leads out of country.
A much better scenario might consider LS alive and captive here in the states and/or in Indiana. This is still very possible imo.



[/quote]To the extent of my knowledge, LS did not travel to any of those places, nor did she have intense interest in those locations. But I have mentioned NY, LA, PA and esp. NYC and Westchester County. Israel was her most recent destination though.[/quote]

All F.B.I. matters when and if necessary.



[/quote]But it's not a zero-sum game. If someone were to write some media articles to gain publicity in Israel or conduct a volunteer search, nothing would be lost. Even if she were not to be found in Israel, the Israeli public would still benefit from the information gained.[/quote]


I think it's a great idea...let us know how it's going and how we can help.



[/quote]Again the strawman: we can't even think about the "child" being in Israel, because then we would be required to spend hundreds of thousands to sent the entire BPD over there, and it would cost too much.[/quote]

Already told you...Israel would be an F.B.I. matter...what makes you think BPD would go to Israel.


[/quote]We don't really know what LE thinks happened that morning; therefore, we cannot follow their lead, nor is it important for us to do so.[/quote]

Wrong again.
If you've followed online or participated in any of the searches or spent any time at the search center then you would know that LE has extremely strong opinions about what happened based on evidence that they have collected.
LE directed the searches, volunteers coordinated and conducted the searches along-side LE.
They were hoping that the searches would turn up further articles of evidence...and they did.
 
There are people on this forum who have gone to the PT board and also to TG's blog site. TG mines the PT board as well as FB and Twitter. All hearsay.

One thing I wondered when reading some of these alternative theories (Waffle House RSO, Israeli cults, Methadone clinics) is if it's possible that a POI with reason to perhaps expect to be arrested and even go to trial in this case--that that POI's representatives (either official, paid reps or well-meaning, misguided friends and family) are floating all these theories out there with an eye toward raising them at trial should a trial ever come to pass--esp if a trial occurs without LS (either living or not) ever being found.

I'm NOT saying anyone posting here is doing so with such motives etc. Only that maybe if they are picking up these theories elsewhere, from places on the web not as well moderated and vetted, that maybe the future defendant's defense team is already laying the ground-work for "reasonable doubt".
 
I was disgusted by the Casey Anthony verdict, but this program, and then reading the other facts that it left out, reminded me that IMO it's better to have a guilty person go free once in while than have an innocent person wrongly accused and convicted.


There's a famous quote to that effect: "It's better that 10 guilty men go free than one innocent man be wrongly convicted. ." But I could probably stomach 10 innocent men doing a bit of time if it meant Casey got what she really deserves.
 
What I surmise:

LE (and parents) do not think LS was abducted by a stranger at this point.

PD uses words like perplexing, confusing and unfortunate to describe LS's friends' lack of communications with PD. They don't use stronger words and I wonder if that is telling.

At one point, when they were flashing the now-ruled-out truck, it seemed like they were thinking of an abduction. But that tone disappeared as soon as they said they were discounting the truck.

But then later LS's parents were all but saying they would understand and that they just needed to know where she was, so it seemed like they all had ruled out abduction by that point.

The Colbie Caillat song seemed aimed at girls; it's the musical version of a chick flick. Looking for the girlfriends to talk. I don't think those guys are listening to CC on their ipods and crying thinking about times they had together. Except her bf, who I believe is doing that.

That last PC, Mrs S said they weren't going anywhere and told LS they would be there for her. I don't know if that was an effort to sound positive or something else.

It's just that overall, I get a waiting but expectant sort of feeling from PD. They are not talking tough about criminal activity. It so much coaxing. And now the new Reflections page. I fear a whole new wave of speculation on who is posting and who isn't and what that may mean...

What do you all think? Do you think the language they are using is different than in an abduction kind of scenario?
 
Not sure anyone's actually pointed to "drug lords".

However, it's highly likely that JR, CR, ZO, MB et al--if they were purchasing illegal narcotics (esp Bolivian Marching Powder)--were dealing with some sort of organized distribution network that likely rec'd product from either Chicago or Cincinnati (possibly Louisville or St Louis or even Memphis, due to the NAFTA route). And that if they needed to re-up that night, they contacted someone from that distro network and they showed up with the product. Which depending on who was handling runs that night, could be someone local or could be someone from another city in town to make a delivery, check on things, etc.

In any case, pretty much all midwestern cocaine distribution is controlled by networks with connections to Mexican gangs, either actual members of the gangs or, for lack of a better term, "w*gg*rs" (sorry, feel free to edit, can't think of a more descriptive term right now) they've recruited to work the street level and deal to their mostly white male clientele. Maybe that's where the "drug lords" meme comes in.



As for the talk of drug lords... IMHO that's a little over the top. That's TV and movie These would just be 'dealers' who deal to support their own habits, far removed from the hierarchy of the drug trade. Dealers buying from dealers buying from dealers buying from dealers....

The only thing that talk does is make me wonder about gang activity in Bloomington and wonder if there's any possible connection there? But IMHO that is still over the top thinking. The simple answer, perhaps even the simplest answer, is still likely to be where the truth really is.
 
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