Some great perspectives, theories and especially all the questions Ros. There is a LOT that LE and the PIs must know that we don't, but it's clearly not enough.
For me it comes down to just a few really important points (that CAN be answered by friends!!) that are eluded to in the posts above:
1. LS's intentions that night...
--she opts to party at home (not with JW as planned), but then the offer from JR comes later (knowing she be partying with the friends from Indy), and she acts on it. Why? Just to party, to hook up with CR or both? DR, HT, and likely JR know this.
2. Cell phone: We know CR 'had designs' or 'wanted to sleep' with Lauren. We know that CS stated her phone was last used at 12:15 in SW....there's a possibility that the gave her phone to CR to carry, or he offered so she couldn't text anyone, specifically JW? Doesn't look like she had a lot of pockets...and, what 20 yr old goes that long with out using her phone. I think he took it to monitor usage. CR would know this prior to his amnesia.
3. Kilroys: Shoes off, no big deal and a common practice. Phone purposely left there by CR? I believe they left in a hurry either because of someone else there or LS talking about drugs.... someone know this, JR, his other friends and of course, CR.
4. The Time Lapse: last on camera at 2:51, arrive at 5N (IF they did) at 3:00 ish.... doesn't leave until 4:30!?!?!?!?! What the hell did she do for an 1.5 hours? Did they really spend that much time with her, just to try to convince her to stay...I think that conversation would lasted no more than 10 mins. One account (I thought) said that she left MBs alone and went to JR, maybe she headed for SW, got picked up by another JR friend at 3:38 (witness) and taken back to JRs? That's a long time for someone 'sooo' impaired. (Witnesses know this, as would JR).
5. Lastly: 5N
--why put her there. Why claim she was there if she wasn't? I can see covering for someone by not acknowledging information or playing dumb, but why create a a story. She was there earlier, so no reason to place here there again (evidence of her presence)? And why so late? If she passed at CRs, (hence him puking), why 1.5 hr timeline of her being there?
I believe that the timeline is directly related to the witness at 3:38...the only reason she had to be at 5N until 4:30, is that she WAS out on the street at 3:38 or later....PIs stated that it was LS and there is a LARGE clock above that was never discounted as being the wrong time like the times on the cameras with the white truck.
If LE cannot put more pressure on the 'lawyered up' PsOI, then I think BO & Co. need to put more pressure on the 'other friends', not lawyered up to answer some key questions!
Some Possibilities:
1) I wouldn't find this unusual. But I would agree there was some motivation for her to go to JR's earlier in the evening. The people involved in that motivation would likely be evidenced by documented phone calls and texts before 12:15. Certainly those present at JR's would know.
Perhaps someone with guts could details exactly what paryting at JR's would usually look like. Let's not pretend here. Hard liquor, bongs, people snorting white powders is quite the norm in this sort of atmosphere. If there were more curious twists (like drinking games, or snorting of powders would be done in a bathroom or private bedroom, etc...) then I would be interested details of accounts from those who participated at JR's to get a clearer picture. On these LS threads there were people in the University environment that gave more general accounts. Yet, I've not seen anyone who partied with JR (inner or out circle) describe their account of what was typical.
2+3) Your theory is possible about CR separating LS from her phone. However, it does seem just as likely that if she were on the narcotics cocktails being attributed to her, that she could have set her phone down the shoes and completely lost track of them. If that were the case, she was already very out of it right there. It goes downhill pretty much continuously after that until she vanishes. What doesn't make sense is that according to MB the downhill demise is suddenly non-existent, and then she is back downhill again and improves at JR's. You also caused me to think about something I'd not considered before and didn't see anyone post about. If she took her shoes off and set her phone down to do something more active why keep her wallet keys with her and her fake ID and key card. If you are holding all of that why not hold the phone too... and yes what 20 yr old female is not getting or sending texts? Don't think anyone saw her play volleyball. But if you were going to do that and set down the phone, why not set down the keys with it? What I usually see people do is stuff such things into their shoes. So the fact that her phone was separated from other valuables is curious. Seems quite possible that it was separated from her shortly after her last call/text at 12:15. Not sure if that places her at JR's or enroute to Kilroys. I think that would still be JR's. If someone snagged her phone to prevent her from linking with others that would be dirty. Let's say it was CR or a POI. Someone's prints should be on the phone... were his? Or was the phone wiped clean? Also a clue that something was being covered up.
Or was it just LS's prints all over it? If it were LS's prints then, most likely she left it there at Kilroy's. In any case, her condition was not good already while at Kilroy's. There have been quite a few reports of LS being out of it at Kilroys, but no one saying she was ok at Kilroy's.
4) Ok, my understanding of the time sequence is more like this:
2:51 to 3:00 She exits alley and slams face down. LE has not revealed if she were helped up, dragged out of view or could be seen getting up on her own. The distinction of course could point in different directions. In any case, It's unlikely this was resolved instantly.
3:00 Witness finds LS's wallet and keys on ground and puts on rail. Doesn't see anyone around. This means that LS was cleared from the immediate area of the fall, within minutes.
3:00 to 3:30 Somewhere in here LS is either being disposed of or is at 5N in CR/MB's apartment. If able to stand and walk, I would expect that the Witness who found her keys and wallet would have seen her stumbling around. But if CR or someone else picked her up or dragged her away, then sure she's out of sight. But where is she? Behind 5N in the blind area (including possibly by the 5N dumpster). OR does she actually make it to CR/MB's? If she did make it up to CR/MB's, she's either comatose/dying/dead or standing/talking/helping MB/and wanting to party.
In either case, should be there by 3:05. If MB is truthful (which doesn't seem possible) LS is in good enough condition to be caring for CR and helping MB put CR to bed. This would consume some time. MB describes some conversation with LS supposedly attempting to get her to stay. Ok, if any of this happened I could see 15 to 20 minutes total. And if instead she's the one on the floor, being put to bed, vomiting and/or comatose and/or dying, then also 15 to 20 minutes could pass until....
3:30 MB calls CR because of LS wanting to party (supposedly).
Now if she is dead outside somewhere, then why is MB calling JR?
If she was brought to JR's first, then why is MB calling JR?
Exactly what is up with CR's phone at this time? Who did he call / text that night?
Maybe CR was using MB's phone.
Maybe CR brought LS to JR's first as someone suggested today, and then CR went to CR/MB's and CR told MB what happened and MB called JR to discuss.
This could explain MB's inconsistency with LS's condition in this timeframe.
Now if LS were at JR's first, the whole time frame is moved up by 30 minutes because all of what is speculated that was happening at CR/MB's was instead happening at JR's. Which also could make sense. It could be that LS was deceased by 3:30 and was in JR's (or alternatively at CR/MB's or even still outside).
My instinct does favor that her final demise was sometime between that Alley fall and 3:30.
4:15 2 calls are made from JR's phone (not sure if it was landline or mobile?)
to DR and unidentified male who partied with LS earlier that evening - says LE. Call was not made to LS's bf, LS's room mate, nor LS's own phone. JR attributes calls to LS (or were made on her behalf?). So this span of 45 minutes is said to have occurred at JR's. But if LS were deceased by 3:30, then this time frame is fabricated, and the reasons for the calls appear to be attempts for JR to do CYA. If LS is alive and kicking, and at JR's, JR's description is very inadequate to explain 45 minutes to 1 hr he says she was there. Thanks for pointing out this rather large inconsistency. What JR is attributed to saying about LS being at his place after 3:30 covers about a total of 5 minutes. The rest of the time, leaves a big question mark.
5) I agree strongly with this possibility. The reason for saying she was at 5N by both MB and JR does seem to be for the purpose of misdirection or misleading LE. I feel she was removed (and probably was not alive) by around 3:30 (not walking down 11th nearly an hour later).
The Bartender who says she saw LS at 3:38 being carried does fit with this very well. If that was the time, and that was LS, then where was she being carried and who was carrying here? Because this is also very close to the time that MB's phone called JR's phone, it's also very curious. The time 3:38 coincides very well with someone leaving 5N(inside from CR/MB's or JR's or outside from the blind area) at about 3:30 and walking to the point where the Bartender made the sighting.
No one else has ever come forward to say it wasn't LS that the Bartender saw... it was XX and XX... it was us... This is interesting. People could have come forward to correct this witness if they were the people she spotted. So, feel there is some credibility to this witness.
LE seemed so sure that it could not have been LS, or the time was wrong. We don't know why. Perhaps there is a non-POI eyewitness that places LS somewhere else? Perhaps there is video that places LS somewhere else at 3:38 which has not been released. Why they would think it was CR carrying LS prior to 2:51 doesn't make sense, Bartender off by a full hour doesn't seem likely? Otherwise if LE is simply taking the word of MB and JR, that would be rather disappointing.
Anyway, yes, after carefully thinking about how much time it would take for the events(as described by MB and JR) to have occurred, 30-40 minutes fits much better than 1.5 hrs. So, that should be another inconsistency.
Personally, I do think that by 3:30 LS was on her way somewhere other than 5N, and not by her own 2 feet. Again, the reason for the time fabrications would be as you theorized, to take focus off of where she really was.
If deceased prior to 3:30, then the timeframe for getting the body disposed would be the time interval immediately following. That just happens to be the time interval she would supposedly have been at JR.s In that scenario, why does JR wait until 4:15 to call DR and the other male? My gut tells me that this coincides with completion of disposal. Somehow JR waited this interval or was signaled that the disposal was complete. In fact it could be an interesting flaw if JR was watching the clock and then placed these calls right after 4:15. If you pick up a phone and call someone, you have a one in 15 chance that it will fall on a quarter hr, top or bottom hr. If it were seconds after 4:15 it would point to someone watching a clock in my view. And quite interestingly MB's call to JR also fell at the bottom of the hour (unless someone is rounding these times). Would that not be curious that MB makes a call at precisely 3:30 and then 2 calls are made at precisely 4:15 from JR's? These numbers are too round.
