First time poster, long time reader. I lost interest in this case but re-energized during the civil suit. When I stopped following the case, I assumed CR-MB-JR were guilty. To play devils advocate (and then I actually convinced myself), I tried to look at this case from a different perspective. Originally, I focused more on the overdose angle, the drug dealers and focused, or rather speculated, much less on the drama that was taking place. Now, I think the drama taking place is the answer to who knows the truth and below, put my speculations.
I graduated the year before LS would have from a similar midwest school (maybe I'm coming at this naively or maybe have some helpful insight). Looking back on my college years HONESTLY and even in my young professional life, there have been about 3-4 times a male friend, some who I am still super close to and think very highly of, let me walk home alone either because I insisted, there was drama and/or they were too drunk themselves to function. It wasn't smart, my friends and I recognized that and luckily nothing bad happened but all it would take is one time. Guys today are still gentlemen and most of the time walk girls home, in my experience, but at the same time are taught to be more passive. If either MB or JR started to argue with LS to sleep on their couch, maybe the conversation bordered on them feeling too aggressive? What were they going to do - physically force her to stay? I'm not condoning their behavior and they definitely should have followed her home, but being naive and intoxicated themselves, JR made the huge mistake to let her walk alone.
As Ive reexamined the events that night, I actually think CR-JR-MBs stories could be true and they possibly even were trying to take care of LS. This could be a huge stretch, but I wanted to force myself to walk through this in a different mindset. Feel free to poke holes.
CR - I honestly think the dude was a hot mess, equally as messed up as Lauren. Amnesia or not, he remembers the night in a fuzzy, fuzzy state where timing/ppl/encounters dont add up - Ive been there from just drinking a lot. I also think it is a stretch, IMO, to assume sexual assault was his goal. A hookup was probably his goal (and maybe hers?) but in a consensual/drunken way. I realize by law that is an oxymoron, but many college hookups happen with both parties drunk so my point is, Im not convinced he had a premeditated plan to get with Lauren that night. Like most college relationships, I think he just wanted to hang out drunk, see what happened, hookup if she was into it, impress her by buying drinks and being a little cocky/stupid, didnt care she had a bf. She seemed to like him just fine without CR needing to be forceful as she was comfortable enough to party hop with him all night. I think ppl in LSs circle were judging this behavior and starting to take JWs side, which resulted in her gravitating toward new friends/romantic interests, specifically CR. Again this is just speculation, but I bet JW/LS had problems long before CR. My guess would be this wasn't the first time LS or JW flirted with other people and I think their friends were becoming fed up/sick of covering for LS or JW if they flirted with other people while the other wasn't around.
MB - IMO, walking Lauren to JRs was the smartest thing to do. Maybe when he realized LS and CR werent in a state to hookup/CR was busy vomiting, he took the opportunity to separate them. JRs makes more sense than walking her home: she was in a bad state to walk, so take her somewhere closer. Putting her in a cab is stupid and unsafe - some cab drivers can be jerks, you risk her not getting into the building or LS telling the cab driver to take her somewhere else. So, he makes sure she's with a friend - or the best thing at that point, which maybe was JR. JR could have seemed like a better option than HT or Smallwood for several reasons, specifically the fight LS and CR had just left.
Finally, and IMO, what was most important to MB that night, was it got LS out of his apartment, not because he was worried about her oding, but because he was somewhere on a scale of annoyed to mad at her. Maybe he felt LS was leading his buddy CR on by flirting with him while having a bf and causing CR to get beat up. He also possibly felt in an awkward position because his roommate wants to hookup with her but his buddy JR is in the same frat as the bf. Maybe HT, ZC or some other girl in this mix had a thing for CR and was jealous he liked LS and maybe MB felt some loyalty to that girl?
Taking her next door prevents anyone seeing her leave CRs the next morning and eliminates rumors they hooked up. Also, maybe Lauren was annoying him by drunkenly asking questions about CR (such as does he like me or is he hooking up with anyone else right now?) or if she was that out of it, maybe he didn't want to deal with those questions about CR in the morning.
JR - So, now were at JRs. I have a theory that JR and LS had an argument that got heated, rather than this sobriety test. Maybe JR felt close enough to LS where he said stop getting so drugged up and cheating on JW, just break up w him, I dont want to be your alibi for when you cheat. Or maybe he said Stop complaining about JW being a bad boyfriend and just break up with him, you deserve better and Im tired of hearing about this. Maybe JR wasn't bff with LS or JW but maybe he was the strongest mutual friend they both had? Not to mention JR was maybe getting sucked into this drama because now CR liked her too? Maybe JR was pressing her about what happened to her face - maybe he thought CR, ZO or JW - someone who had reason to be mad at her, hurt her. What if the calls JR placed weren't because he was worried LS was oding but maybe LS was getting emotional/felt unsafe and he was trying to help? In her drugged up state she got really defensive, maybe JR is pushing her to do something she doesn't want to do, such as:
-tell JW she was with CR tonight
-JR wants to call JW, LS doesn't want to see him?
-maybe JR says something in JWs defense that upsets her
From there, a heated argument erupts and she storms off. JR, also being immature and heated, lets her leave and isnt thinking about the long term consequences. JR will regret that for the rest of his life.
A few random thoughts on JRs behavior:
-I never camp up with a reason WHY JR takes the heat for being the last to see her, especially when it seems he spent the least amount of time with her that night
-Furthermore, why say she left at all? IMO, if you were to cover up disposing a body, it always would have made more sense for JR/all the 5N boys to say she passed out on JRs couch, I got up at 7am to use the bathroom and she was gone, assumed she sobered up and went home. In college and post college, my friends and I do/still couch crash and often get up at 6-8am once the black out is fading and head home. Do we usually text/check in? Yeah, but not always. Im not condoning this behavior, I just think it does happen once in awhile, especially in a college bubble
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-I think three boys succeeding in this cover up is a stretch and only way Id be convinced is if this were someones life long, best friend. This led me to consider JR-DB could be involved but why wouldn't JR put DB in the spotlight more to back up his word?
-JR met with the parents - I think it is hard to judge how forthcoming these boys truly have been based on what the media shows. At this point I think their behavior is more out of fear for the public spinning anything else theyd offer. I think this is particularly true of JR because he has met with the parents. While I don't fault the Spierers and understand them doing anything for information, maybe they cant get the answers they so desperately want because JR doesn't have them?
Im not writing this to speculate on petty drama or paint Lauren in a bad light. Im writing this because I don't believe LS overdosed and a group of people covered it up successfully. I just don't think they were capable - too many ppl involved and some evidence would be discovered at this point. If CR-MB-JR got away with it, what motive do ALL THREE have to stay silent? IMO, which Im sure some people will disagree, the drugs are not a good enough reason to stay silent this long.
I think an overdose is completely likely, but in the presence of ONE, at most two people, who had an personal motive for covering her death that isn't related to a massive drug chain. So the question is, who would have the greatest motive to 1) seek her out at 4am and 2) cover up her death because they feared an accident wasnt a good enough answer. These are listed with the likelihood of these happening, IMO, with the first two options tied.
-JW
Do we know what interaction JW and HT had that night via text? Perhaps HT confirmed what JWs bros were rumoring and he went to wait outside for LS at CRs - maybe even with the innocent intention just to prove she wasn't there for his own sanity. Given how often kids text, Ive never believed JW wasnt at least vaguely aware what was going on that night. Maybe JW got violent or she overdoses but he worries people would assume he got violent from the black eye developing, if a doctor tells she hit her head, etc.
-POI who was actually a close friend of LS (or JW) and has some type of personal motive in this drama
Same situation/thinking happened as with JW but insert a different POI. I think it was ONE person, at most two. This could be someone we don't know or JUST DB, ZO
.
If either of those options is true and there is a second person, I wonder about HT/ZC/another female friends involvement and if they possible tipped off where LS was/wanted to get her in trouble with JW for some reason. Im just speculating but perhaps under this CR-LS-JW love triangle there is another girl who is jealous/upset about something? I think a female being involved is interesting since women can be very ruthless, especially in friend groups and are also better at keeping secrets, IMO.
-POI we dont know yet - perhaps a classmate who was obsessed with her, a local who worked at a local establishment? If LS was starting to take interest in other guys besides JW (which isn't a bad thing, she's young and figuring out what she wants), was there some other creep following her and CR around that night?
-Random Abduction
-CR/MB - ONE of them followed her outside and had some type of conflict with her.
I realize my theory doesn't take a stance on the 3:38 siting. There was so much go back and forth, Im not sure what timeline makes sense. I think the witness could be wrong and I also think 5N boys could have been drunk and a little fuzzy on when the night actually ended and/or got nervous and changed the times to look better, etc. It doesn't change my theory that I think the successful cover up of the truth isn't from a massive cover up related to drugs that everyone is in on, but one person who had a personal conflict with LS, was along with her at the end of the evening and this one person (two at most) is keeping their secret and succeeding because of all the drug use and how party crazy this group as a whole appears.
This was meant to reexamine motive of the key players, which IMO, Ive moved CR-MB-JR to the bottom of my suspect list.