Israel Keyes: General Discussion

[dub]

Welcome to Websleuths, @nclady1983

I'm frankly shocked to learn that there are people out there who don't think the ransom photo of poor Samantha is real. Of course it is, and of course she was already deceased when Keyes snapped the Polaroid.

IMO, Samantha Koenig was the true beginning of Keyes' complete unraveling, from the moment he abducted her, through the tool room shed horrors, the ATM card, fake texts and the ransom stuff, to the brazen, risky way he disposed of her body parts.

The tragedy of Samantha is that her life was taken, but also that she became basically an unsung hero afterward, because Keyes had lost all self-control and was never able to kill again.

Except to murder himself, of course.

Unfortunately on the latter point both Mark Oldbury and Jimmy Tidwell disappeared after he killed Samantha (I definitely think he killed Tidwell and am 50/50 on Oldbury), plus he had at least one other failed abduction attempt.

But, and especially based on the above, yes he was completely unglued at that point.

I do think the unraveling was well in progress at the very latest at the time of the Currier trip, and maybe as long as a year before that, but yeah until Samantha I don’t think he had totally lost it.

I also hadn’t realized people thought the polaroid was fake, I can’t wrap my head around that.

 

[Muddy K]

Unfortunately on the latter point both Mark Oldbury and Jimmy Tidwell disappeared after he killed Samantha (I definitely think he killed Tidwell and am 50/50 on Oldbury), plus he had at least one other failed abduction attempt.

But, and especially based on the above, yes he was completely unglued at that point.

I do think the unraveling was well in progress at the very latest at the time of the Currier trip, and maybe as long as a year before that, but yeah until Samantha I don’t think he had totally lost it.

I also hadn’t realized people thought the polaroid was fake, I can’t wrap my head around that.

@dub thanks for the important reminder about Mark Oldbury and Jimmy Tidwell. I can be excessively literal sometimes, so by default I think of the known-and-confirmed victims rather than the likely-but-unconfirmed victims.

I am fairly sure Keyes killed James Tidwell, too, but I can't prove it, so I tend to stay with Samantha as the last known victim.

Agree with you that cracks around the edges were emerging during the trip to Vermont and in the killings of the Curriers, but I've long pondered - given his particular self-awareness and intelligence - why Keyes couldn't see it and patch himself up instead of caving fully to his compulsions.

 

[dub]

@dub thanks for the important reminder about Mark Oldbury and Jimmy Tidwell. I can be excessively literal sometimes, so by default I think of the known-and-confirmed victims rather than the likely-but-unconfirmed victims.

I am fairly sure Keyes killed James Tidwell, too, but I can't prove it, so I tend to stay with Samantha as the last known victim.

Agree with you that cracks around the edges were emerging during the trip to Vermont and in the killings of the Curriers, but I've long pondered - given his particular self-awareness and intelligence - why Keyes couldn't see it and patch himself up instead of caving fully to his compulsions.

Ah gotcha, my problem is that because Keyes wasn’t arrested until a month and a half after he killed Samantha I often forget that Samantha was before Tidwell rather than after.

And I think his ability to see the unraveling and his ability to patch it up are two different things. I think he COULD see it, at least by the time of the Currier trip, but for whatever reason (which, like you, I wonder about) he couldn’t do anything about it despite knowing it was happening.

I think I’ve mentioned it before, but the reason I think the Currier trip is such an important reference point in this process is that I am extremely confident that he did not plan on killing the Curriers until the night it happened. I think he was cruising for victims some distance away for the previous two days and couldn’t find one, and the Curriers were plan B.

It makes absolutely no sense for him to stay in Essex if that was plan A when Constable is two hours away, and I think that whole thing was against his better judgment but by that point he couldn’t help taking action when he was ready no matter how stupid it was.

 

[LeneYael]

Welcome to Websleuths, @nclady1983

I'm frankly shocked to learn that there are people out there who don't think the ransom photo of poor Samantha is real. Of course it is, and of course she was already deceased when Keyes snapped the Polaroid.

IMO, Samantha Koenig was the true beginning of Keyes' complete unraveling, from the moment he abducted her, through the tool room shed horrors, the ATM card, fake texts and the ransom stuff, to the brazen, risky way he disposed of her body parts.

The tragedy of Samantha is that her life was taken, but also that she became basically an unsung hero afterward, because Keyes had lost all self-control and was never able to kill again.

Except to murder himself, of course.

The black and white picture of the girl from front, without braids, is 100% fake.

 

[LeneYael]

@dub thanks for the important reminder about Mark Oldbury and Jimmy Tidwell. I can be excessively literal sometimes, so by default I think of the known-and-confirmed victims rather than the likely-but-unconfirmed victims.

I am fairly sure Keyes killed James Tidwell, too, but I can't prove it, so I tend to stay with Samantha as the last known victim.

Agree with you that cracks around the edges were emerging during the trip to Vermont and in the killings of the Curriers, but I've long pondered - given his particular self-awareness and intelligence - why Keyes couldn't see it and patch himself up instead of caving fully to his compulsions.

Ah gotcha, my problem is that because Keyes wasn’t arrested until a month and a half after he killed Samantha I often forget that Samantha was before Tidwell rather than after.

And I think his ability to see the unraveling and his ability to patch it up are two different things. I think he COULD see it, at least by the time of the Currier trip, but for whatever reason (which, like you, I wonder about) he couldn’t do anything about it despite knowing it was happening.

I think I’ve mentioned it before, but the reason I think the Currier trip is such an important reference point in this process is that I am extremely confident that he did not plan on killing the Curriers until the night it happened. I think he was cruising for victims some distance away for the previous two days and couldn’t find one, and the Curriers were plan B.

It makes absolutely no sense for him to stay in Essex if that was plan A when Constable is two hours away, and I think that whole thing was against his better judgment but by that point he couldn’t help taking action when he was ready no matter how stupid it was.

If that’s true (about the Currier’s being 2nd choice in a way), then why did he say he ”made sure it was the right house”? I don’t see much sloppiness in the Currier case, I’d like to hear what in it makes you think so? I think it’s likely he was unravelling; he said so himself. That the last year he’d started to lose control. On that TX trip he put 2800 miles on the car. I don’t think he killed Jimmy Tidwell. Well, sometimes I do, sometimes I don’t! The facts get in the way though. JT’s phone being answered by wife on 16th or 17th, yet the phone disappeared with Tidwell. Why would the wife lie about having seen JT if she was innocent and had nothing to do with it.

 

[dub]

If that’s true (about the Currier’s being 2nd choice in a way), then why did he say he ”made sure it was the right house”? I don’t see much sloppiness in the Currier case, I’d like to hear what in it makes you think so? I think it’s likely he was unravelling; he said so himself. That the last year he’d started to lose control. On that TX trip he put 2800 miles on the car. I don’t think he killed Jimmy Tidwell. Well, sometimes I do, sometimes I don’t! The facts get in the way though. JT’s phone being answered by wife on 16th or 17th, yet the phone disappeared with Tidwell. Why would the wife lie about having seen JT if she was innocent and had nothing to do with it.

Re: Tidwell, when his boss called and talked to his wife, as far as I know that was on their home phone, not his cell. But if that’s wrong, or if you’re talking about something else, please point me to it bc that’s not something I was aware of.

I also don’t recall Keyes’ statement about “making sure it was the right house” off hand, but along those lines, one potential hole in my theory is the possibility that Keyes stalked the Curriers well in advance of the murders.

But I think both can be true—he could have stalked the Curriers, but also had not planned on killing them at that specific time, just had them on the radar. Which would also explain the house comment.

I didn’t mention any kind of sloppiness in the Currier murders aside from him staying in Essex and placing himself there when that was totally unnecessary, not sure where you got that.

Eta: to put it another way, if my theory is wrong and Keyes did plan on killing the Curriers on that trip from square one, staying in Essex beforehand when he could have just drove in from Constable is so profoundly stupid and careless that I’d say that indicates he had, without question, fully unraveled at that point.

 

[nclady1983]

Welcome to Websleuths, @nclady1983

I'm frankly shocked to learn that there are people out there who don't think the ransom photo of poor Samantha is real. Of course it is, and of course she was already deceased when Keyes snapped the Polaroid.

IMO, Samantha Koenig was the true beginning of Keyes' complete unraveling, from the moment he abducted her, through the tool room shed horrors, the ATM card, fake texts and the ransom stuff, to the brazen, risky way he disposed of her body parts.

The tragedy of Samantha is that her life was taken, but also that she became basically an unsung hero afterward, because Keyes had lost all self-control and was never able to kill again.

Except to murder himself, of course.

Exactly. And for years, try and try as I might to tell myself it was fake, on a VISCERAL level I could tell it was real. No one would go that far to reeanact to the point her eyes were dull.

I also agree that Keyes seemed to somewhat fall apart around that time. Almost as if he wanted to be caught (subconsciously).

 

[nclady1983]

The black and white picture of the girl from front, without braids, is 100% fake.

Hi there
I'll have to respectfully disagree, and in my next post I will lay it out for you (although I respect your input and opinion).
It is almost undeniably real, after what I've found.

 

[nclady1983]

The black and white picture of the girl from front, without braids, is 100% fake.

The following is my own opinion, based on my individual research: I do not claim to be part of any "insider" knowledge; this was all done by a gal who wondered for YEARS about this photo and just had to find out.

So, because I had too much time on my hands at work, here is what I did:

I looked at the b&w photo thats always circulating, and I honed in on the newspaper.

I went into Anchorage, Alaskas news archives and pulled up the front page for Feb 13 of that year.

Back to the ransom photo; If you look at the very top, there's a line that says "Daily" and there's a white box afterwards.
The kind of white box that is commonly used to redact something, but in white. I've done it myself many times.

Look closely....in that box is a lighter shade of white than the rest of the newspaper.

Someone intentionally redacted the word "deal" in "daily deals"....ask yourself why?

Furthermore, the newspaper in the ransom photo is the same exact front page I pulled from the archive. I cannot imagine any production team would go so far as to match up the *exact* front page of Anchorage news.

Her eyes are so dull and dim. It would be disrespectful for a tv program to reenact it, to that level.

You can see the remnants of the duct tape around her mouth.

You can tell her jaw is locked in rigor mortis.

At the top of the black and white photo, you can literally see where it was ripped after being taken down off the sign keyes stapled it to ("Aint she purty?' in his words).

All of those things led me to believe it is real particularly the parts I bolded.

The white box was obviously redacted in order to put off people like myself, who would actually go so far as to compare the headlines/front page.

The pages are a dead ringer for one another, with the only difference being the white box after "daily" that has redacted the word "deals".

I wish I could post the screenshots of the info I found, but I'm wanting to be respectful of the rules here and I'm not sure what the guidelines are for posting.

 

[cenazoic]

I'm frankly shocked to learn that there are people out there who don't think the ransom photo of poor Samantha is real. Of course it is, and of course she was already deceased when Keyes snapped the Polaroid.

The black and white picture of the girl from front, without braids, is 100% fake.

Is there reason to believe it's fake?

If we're talking about the same photo (the one Muddy K references above):

...the ransom note with the photo of Samantha and the proof-of-life copy of the Anchorage Daily News dated February 13, 2012.

FELDIS: She alive in this photo?

KEYES: Nope.

FELDIS: Was she alive when you got back from your trip on the morning of [February] eighteenth?

KEYES: Nope.

FELDIS: Was she alive when you left?

KEYES: That would seem like an obvious question.

- from American Predator, pp.316-17, Kindle edition.

 

[LeneYael]

Is there reason to believe it's fake?

If we're talking about the same photo (the one Muddy K references above):



- from American Predator, pp.316-17, Kindle edition.

In the real picture her hair is braided and she has duct tape to keep her mouth closed (since she is deceased).

 

[dub]

Quite a bit of good info between the recent True Crime Garage/TCBS/SITP roundtable and the new s6e11.

The main thing I locked in on that was new to me was that the victim the FBI considers the “first” Keyes victim, the one that happened between july and october 2001, was apparently NOT from Washington. [eta for clarification: the victim did not disappear from WA, not necessarily that they weren’t from there]

They don’t know who it is, but somehow they have a strong belief both in the time frame and that it was outside the state.

I’ve been trying to figure out who this might be. There’s not much on charley project that stands out, but Nicole Engle’s file is in a way very interesting.

Nicole Danielle Engle – The Charley Project

Not due to the circumstances (as almost nothing is actually known about her disappearance, including exactly where and when* she disappeared), but I did notice that a.) the FBI is involved in her case, which could suggest Keyes and/or cross-border elements, and b.) weirdly, Stevens County WA is also involved.

Nicole lived in Vancouver when she disappeared; Stevens County is in the far opposite corner of the state and is, maybe coincidentally maybe not, where Colville is.

*note: CP has a last contact date of 10/2/01, but other sources say 9/2, and Namus just says sometime in September or October.


Another odd detail about who this might be though, which would point away from Nicole, is their exact words were that the victim disappeared between July and October 31st—no date given in July, but very specifically 10/31. Why not just say between July and October?

It may be totally coincidental, but Keyes’ daughter was born on 10/31/01, which kind of makes me wonder if they suspect the “first” victim was a kid.

 

[dub]

Also, to add to the above re: Nicole: I didn’t think of this until now, but if she was moonlighting as a “dancer in a club”, which I take to mean a stripper, i feel like it’s more likely than not that she worked in Oregon rather than Washington.

Vancouver is right on the border, and at the time Portland had a notoriously bustling strip club scene, while in WA they were extremely heavily regulated and few and far between.

And not that strip clubs necessarily care about this kind of thing, but if Nicole was 18, could she legally work in a 21+ club? I don’t know either way, but I know for sure that Portland had a few 18+ strip clubs at the time (source: I lived in Portland and was exactly 18 in 2001 haha) and I don’t believe WA did.

 

[dub]

So there is a lot of wild stuff in the newest TCBS episode and it definitely sends Mark Oldbury way up the ladder in terms of likelihood.

But a thing in it that I found really interesting was the pattern of potential victims’ belongings turning up in previously-searched areas shortly after the disappearances.

The cases they highlight where this occurred are, chronologically:

Suzy Lyall
Kami and Gene
Jon Corey
Celia Barnes
Curriers (maybe)
Marble Arvidson (maybe)
Mark Oldbury

What they didn’t mention, but I found notable, is the timing of these cases.

They were, respectively, in 98, 01, 02, 02, 11, 11, 12. So all of them were either very early or very late in Keyes’ run.

We were recently discussing on here the timing of Keyes’ unraveling, and I wondered if the emergence of this pattern late was possibly him reverting to early habits as a part of that unraveling.

I had all of these cases on my radar but definitely don’t have them all as high probability Keyes cases (though some of them are) but I also think it’s notable that there are unconfirmed sightings of Keyes in the area of all but one (Celia Barnes) around the time of the disappearances.

Whatever it all means (or doesn’t mean) it’s pretty compelling.

 

[Falling Down]

Also, to add to the above re: Nicole: I didn’t think of this until now, but if she was moonlighting as a “dancer in a club”, which I take to mean a stripper, i feel like it’s more likely than not that she worked in Oregon rather than Washington.

Vancouver is right on the border, and at the time Portland had a notoriously bustling strip club scene, while in WA they were extremely heavily regulated and few and far between.

And not that strip clubs necessarily care about this kind of thing, but if Nicole was 18, could she legally work in a 21+ club? I don’t know either way, but I know for sure that Portland had a few 18+ strip clubs at the time (source: I lived in Portland and was exactly 18 in 2001 haha) and I don’t believe WA did.

I like your reasoning.

Just wanted to throw this out there, Keyes got his discharge at Fort Lewis, WA, July of 2001. Lewis is near Tacoma and Seattle.

I'd venture to guess that by 2001 he knew much of WA state very well. He spent part of his growing up years in the eastern end of the state, then moved to Neah Bay on the reservation, after Army service.

 

[dub]

I like your reasoning.

Just wanted to throw this out there, Keyes got his discharge at Fort Lewis, WA, July of 2001. Lewis is near Tacoma and Seattle.

I'd venture to guess that by 2001 he knew much of WA state very well. He spent part of his growing up years in the eastern end of the state, then moved to Neah Bay on the reservation, after Army service.

For sure, that plus living in Maupin Oregon means he knew the whole route between Colville and there too, which is through a whole different part of WA.

And I know at a point his sister lived in Gresham OR which could have familiarized him with the Portland area, although I don’t know if she lived there as early as 2001.

The one very early case in WA I feel pretty strongly about is Gary Bryant in 99, and he disappeared from a super random part of WA that is in none of those areas, it’s along a circuitous back route from Ft Lewis to Colville that you’d take if the normal route was closed due to weather—which, incidentally, was exactly the case at the time he disappeared.

 

[dub]

And speaking of Gary Bryant, I was considering re: the above concept of leaving victims’ belongings around early/late in his run… I wonder if in Keyes’ psychology leaving a victim’s car where it would be found would fall in the same category of “belongings”.*

If so, then both Gary (early) and Jimmy Tidwell (late) could be added to that list, and in terms of the timeline of unraveling makes me also think of Harvey Skolnick, who disappeared from OR in late 2010 and whose car was found in similar circumstances to Gary’s.

It should be noted that none of the victims on that original list had cars besides the Curriers, and we know that Keyes altered his original plan for their car in at least one sense.

*I’m sure that in some cases leaving a victims car where he did was a matter of practicality—this may have been the case with Tidwell—but with Gary and especially Harvey it wouldn’t have been.

 

[atomicsciencegal]

And speaking of Gary Bryant, I was considering re: the above concept of leaving victims’ belongings around early/late in his run… I wonder if in Keyes’ psychology leaving a victim’s car where it would be found would fall in the same category of “belongings”.*

If so, then both Gary (early) and Jimmy Tidwell (late) could be added to that list, and in terms of the timeline of unraveling makes me also think of Harvey Skolnick, who disappeared from OR in late 2010 and whose car was found in similar circumstances to Gary’s.

It should be noted that none of the victims on that original list had cars besides the Curriers, and we know that Keyes altered his original plan for their car in at least one sense.

*I’m sure that in some cases leaving a victims car where he did was a matter of practicality—this may have been the case with Tidwell—but with Gary and especially Harvey it wouldn’t have been.

Friend, thank you for your posts. These are some pretty amazing thoughts and I hard agree with you. I think there’s a few other cases where his name has been mentioned (at least by sleuthers) and the vehicle has been moved. (Names are escaping me, but the older lady whose car was found at the scenic outlook in I think California, and a tow truck mechanic whose truck they found in a strange spot.)

On those same lines, I feel like he also took something from the victims and used it later in the bank robberies. Tidwells’ hard helmet and hair, Marbles’ fedora.

 

[dub]

Friend, thank you for your posts. These are some pretty amazing thoughts and I hard agree with you. I think there’s a few other cases where his name has been mentioned (at least by sleuthers) and the vehicle has been moved. (Names are escaping me, but the older lady whose car was found at the scenic outlook in I think California, and a tow truck mechanic whose truck they found in a strange spot.)

On those same lines, I feel like he also took something from the victims and used it later in the bank robberies. Tidwells’ hard helmet and hair, Marbles’ fedora.

Yeah I am with you on the bank robberies re: Tidwell and Marble for sure. I haven’t seen any other cases where that’s thought to have happened but I have my eyes peeled!

The scenic overlook in CA was Nita Mayo, but I have no idea who the tow truck mechanic is. If you figure out who that is please let me know, or if you know the state/region I might be able to figure it out.

Some other cases where cars were or may have been moved that come to mind:

Del Sample
Jeramy Burt
Linda Hanie (sp?)
Kim Forbes
Cynthia Marl

I tend to think that Keyes was not responsible for Nita Mayo, but her case is really strange and really similar to Del Sample’s disappearance (which I am 50/50 on), and I see no reason he couldn’t have done it.

Eta: Nita’s disappearance was pretty close in time to Del’s too, just a few months apart.

 

[atomicsciencegal]

Yeah I am with you on the bank robberies re: Tidwell and Marble for sure. I haven’t seen any other cases where that’s thought to have happened but I have my eyes peeled!

The scenic overlook in CA was Nita Mayo, but I have no idea who the tow truck mechanic is. If you figure out who that is please let me know, or if you know the state/region I might be able to figure it out.

Some other cases where cars were or may have been moved that come to mind:

Del Sample
Jeramy Burt
Linda Hanie (sp?)
Kim Forbes
Cynthia Marl

I tend to think that Keyes was not responsible for Nita Mayo, but her case is really strange and really similar to Del Sample’s disappearance (which I am 50/50 on), and I see no reason he couldn’t have done it.

The tow truck driver was Dale Williams. Some of his items were found in his garage after he went missing, as well - a gun and torn up photos of him and his wife. I mean, I haven’t looked at Ik timelines recently so maybe it’s not going to line up, but it just itches my brain.