For a 2% margin of error, you’re right. But for a 5% margin of error (still 95% confidence level), the required number of respondents
according to your calculator for a population size of 2,300,000 is
385.
If you calculate the margin of error using the actual sample size of 668 (with a 95% confidence level),
using your calculator, you get a margin of error of
3.79%. That doesn’t sound too bad to me.
Also, if you go to the Awrad website and browse around, they claim that they have many clients, including the United Nations and the World Bank. They have many polls on various topics affecting Palestinians dating back for at least a few years. The firm itself is located inside Ramallah, and according to AWRAD, it is affiliated with a Palestinian University. Maybe they are making up all of those details to put on their website, but it seems unlikely because it seems like the UN or the World Bank would’ve challenged them by now for inappropriately listing them as their clientele.
Here is what this firm says about its sampling methodology for this poll-
“The team conducted the survey through tablet-assisted, face-to-face interviews across the West Bank and in shelters and households in the three “southern” Gaza governorates (Deir Al Balah, Khan Younis, and Rafah) where people were presently residing. The poll’s sample includes all socioeconomic groups, ensuring equal representation of adult men and women, and is proportionately distributed across the West Bank and Gaza. With a 95% confidence interval, the margin of error for the poll is (±) 4%. For further details on the sample, please see Annex I.”
Source:
https://www.awrad.org/files/server/polls/polls2023/Public Opinion Poll - Gaza War 2023.pdf
That information seems fairly consistent with what your calculator says the margin of error would be for this sample size.
The thing I wish the survey gave more information about is what it is using as the population size. They didn’t just poll Gaza, they polled people in Gaza, and in the West Bank. According to “world population review” the total population of Palestinians is around 5.5 million. 40% of the population according to the same site is 14 years and up. I imagine this organization didn’t poll children so I’m going to assume that the actual population size they were taking from was 40% of 5.5 million which is probably overstating the population size because I’m sure children 14 to 18 years old weren’t interviewed either. Nevertheless, using that potentially inflated number, 40% of 5.5 million is still 2.2 million- which is about the same number that you assumed the population size would be.
Based on all of that, I don’t think it’s fair to dispute this poll solely on the basis of sample size, as many are. If you want to dispute this poll based on the fact that the respondents were polled while they were in a war zone, I could see that. If anything, at this point, I think the main thing this poll actually tells us is that, as expected I suppose, Palestinian opinion is very heavily influenced by what’s happening in Gaza right now. And while I can understand that, I also think Israel needs to finish this job and get Hamas out. Then it has a big job to try to rebuild trust with, rebuild, and “denazify” Palestine. MOO.