Italy - Sailing yacht sank off Italian coast, 15 rescued, 7 missing, 19 August 2024

[ItalyReader]

RSBM
Excellent find, @SpanishInquisition. I agree with your assessment of the Bayesian's design being in part at fault for this tragedy, as I shared up thread. However, I also still question the crew's actions (and possibly their preparedness if there was severe thunderstorm activity in the area, which I have yet to find evidence of).

Anyhow, what I snipped from your post confuses / concerns me.

The captain, IMO, gave the correct order in response to the watchman waking him: "wake everyone else up". But from the way the watchman's statement is written, it sounds like rather than wake everyone up, he first put away cushions and plants and closed up windows and "some" hatches. And what hatches, if any, did he not close?

So I am left wondering, did the watchman in fact wake everyone up? And was "everyone" meant to reference all crew, or crew and passengers. IOW, I am still left with a sinking feeling more could have been done to get the sleeping passengers up onto the deck with life vests on (e.g. fire alarm, broadcast announcement, opening doors, etc.).

This statement from the watchman sadly does not abate that, although it leaves me more confident in the captain.

In reading both the English and the Italian, it is not clear if he woke up all humans or just the crew.

I read it as though he woke up the crew.

I think it’s very very interesting that they were thrown off the boat and managed to get back on -
And when they did get back on, they had to walk on the walls due to the tilt.

At that point I wonder what was the access to Hannah’s room? Covered by rushing water?

 

[RedHaus]

Exclusive: Loose Cannon Obtains Official Bayesian Stability Document

'Notes to Master' Reproduced Here Without Comment

loosecannon.substack.com

RSBM
A tremendous find, @SpanishInquisition.

Right at the top of the first page is this very compelling statement from the Bayesian Stability Document: “In adverse weather conditions and where there is the possibility of encountering a severe gust, squall or large breaking wave, all exposed doors, hatches, skylights, vents, etc. should be closed and securely fastened to prevent the ingress of water.”

Didn't I read somewhere, sorry I can't remember, that the Bayesian had an electronic mechanism to shut everything up? But it sounds like the watchman was 'manually' closing windows and hatches. Of course that is my interpretation.

IMO.

 

[SouthAussie]

In reading both the English and the Italian, it is not clear if he woke up all humans or just the crew.

I read it as though he woke up the crew.

I think it’s very very interesting that they were thrown off the boat and managed to get back on -
And when they did get back on, they had to walk on the walls due to the tilt.

At that point I wonder what was the access to Hannah’s room? Covered by rushing water?

I imagine they were able to get back on if they were tied off with safety lines. The long lines attach to them and to the boat, and are used in heavy weather when the crew must do things on the deck. Stops a 'man-overboard' situation where they cannot retrieve the 'man'.

 

[SouthAussie]

Historical Weather Doppler Radar / Marine Alerts

As I said I would today, I have tried to find historical weather doppler radar and marine alerts for the hours preceding the Bayesian event, but no luck. I found some "pay" applications, but that is not in my budget. But I did find this!

European Severe Weather Database provides an interactive search capability that is quite amazing. Sadly after many refinements to my search attempts, I found nothing material. That doesn't mean there is none; OPs may find some!

The best I could come up with was a damaging lightening strike at ~02:30 on 19-8-2024 in Italy. Would that trigger a marine / weather alert as a strong thunderstorm? Perhaps. I did see the Bayesian event recorded, FWIW.

I will keep trying, but I welcome anyone who is a weather geek and may have specialized computer applications to try to find historical weather doppler radar or marine alerts.... the goal is to see what the crew may have known in advance.

Palermo forecast "patchy light rain with thunder", light winds.

(You will have to reset the date to 19th August, I notice the link changes it back to current date when I post the link)

Palermo, Sicilia, IT Historical Weather Almanac

Palermo, Sicilia, Italy - Hourly past weather, almanac for Palermo including historical temperature, wind, rain, pressure and humidity stats | WorldWeatherOnline.com

www.worldweatheronline.com

I am not finding anything (looking at multiple historical weather sites) about a big storm being forecast on that day.
Not finding any marine alerts for that day either.

Which might explain why the coast guard said .... “The wind was very strong. Bad weather was expected, but not of this magnitude”

Blackbox sheds light on tragic final minutes of billionaire’s superyacht trip

Mike Lynch had gathered his nearest and dearest to toast walking away a free man from a HP fraud trial

www.independent.co.uk

 

[RedHaus]

Palermo forecast "patchy light rain with thunder", light winds... I am not finding anything (looking at multiple historical weather sites) about a big storm being forecast on that day. Not finding any marine alerts for that day either.

RSBM.
Yes. Thanks for the validation of my research, @SouthAussie. Perhaps the downburst truly was a freak of nature and very difficult to predict.

 

[Luna20]

This is what I personally view as a super yacht. The water level is low enough for my comfort.

 

[Skigh]

Bayesian yacht survivor says crew 'saved who we could'

The British tech mogul, 59, and his daughter Hannah, 18, who was due to start at Oxford University in September, were among those who lost their lives when the yacht sank.

www.dailymail.co.uk

The 22-year-old, who was on watch duty on the night of the tragedy, told investigators that the crew members did everything they could to save those on board the Bayesian, according to comments reported by Italian news agency Ansa.

Griffiths, the boat's captain James Cutfield, and ship engineer Tim Parker Eaton have been placed under investigation by the Italian authorities for potential manslaughter and shipwreck. Being investigated does not imply guilt and does not mean formal charges will follow.

'I woke up the captain when the wind was at 20 knots (23 mph). He gave orders to wake everyone else,' Ansa quoted Griffiths as saying.



The ship tilted and we were thrown into the water. Then we managed to get back up and tried to rescue those we could,' he added, describing the events of the fateful night, when the Bayesian had been anchored off the Sicilian port.

'We were walking on the walls (of the boat). We saved who we could, Cutfield also saved the little girl and her mother,' he said, referring to passenger Charlotte Golunski and her one-year-old daughter. In all there were 15 survivors of the wreck.

Cutfield exercised his right to remain silent when questioned by prosecutors on Tuesday, his lawyers said.

 

[ItalyReader]

View attachment 528312View attachment 528313


This is what I personally view as a super yacht. The water level is low enough for my comfort.

Consider that I won't even get on a large cruise ship anymore lol
And not just since Bayesian -
In rough weather - which we have seen can come up unexpectedly at any time - any boat even the largest will get tossed around. Stabilizers on cruise ships? They make it less terrible but for me personally it's never pleasant to be in rough water.

 

[ItalyReader]

it sounds like the watchman was 'manually' closing windows and hatches. Of course that is my interpretation.

All MOO below as I'm trying to differentiate in my mind what types of openings (doors, hatches, windows, other) they are referring to.
This is a going down a worm hole even for me in trying to understand nautical Italian, so you could just skip this post too

Regarding the hatches, it is not super clear how Matthew did it or which he closed. The usage of the word "hatch" in English vs "portellone"/"boccaporto" in Italian is confusing.
As a non-mariner, I don't know the difference between boccaporto and portellone. Both seem to be used for hatch/door. Wish we had a bilingual sailor/mariner on this thread! I asked my non-mariner friend who is also bilingual and he does not know the difference either, that both are nautical terms.
Regardless, they seem to be applied indiscriminately but also in a differentiated manner. Confusing.

In other articles, like this one in Italian, the captain said the left side portellone was closed “Il portellone era sicuramente chiuso” - the words used in the articles were "Hatch" translated as Portellone (but not Boccaporto)

Bayesian, parla l'ex comandante: "Il portellone era sicuramente chiuso". L'imbarcazione affondata in 16 minuti con scafo e oblò sigillati. E Cutfield torna a Maiorca

Una barca stabile, probabilmente non in grado di inclinarsi a 45 gradi. Con oblò fissi ai lati, incapaci di imbarcare acqua e il portellone a poppa che di regola è tenuto chiuso. Tanti i dettagli che non tornano nella ricostruzione degli ultimi minuti della tragedia del Bayesian

www.ilriformista.it

Bayesian Commander Does Not Respond to Prosecutors, Then Bursts into Tears: Ready to Leave Italy - L'Unione Sarda English

The lawyers: «Still very affected by the incident»

www.unionesarda.it

All MOO and considerations below.

This also gets a little tricky because I haven't found an original English language quote (not article - as the English Ansa article is below, but exact original English words Matthew used - perhaps the same perhaps not.)

In the Italian below, it says that he closed "alcuni boccaporti" (ANSA translated to "hatches") and then that Matthew's expertise did not cover "portelloni" (ANSA translated to "doors") and thus he did not mention them.

If I had to guess MOO I would say that portellone may be a large hatch that requires some expertise (possibly with automated assistance) to operate while boccaporto may be a smaller opening of some kind.
This would be in line with the article saying that Matthew's expertise did not cover certain openings but did cover others - perhaps he was doing what he was allowed and certified to do and leaving the things he was not certified to do (perhaps the hatches or larger doors) to the captain or others certified. MOO.
------
Regarding the articles below:

In the English it says he closed "some hatches" (ANSA translating for "boccaporto"), and ANSA says he did not speak about "doors" (ANSA translating for "portelloni" for which he was not responsible.)

Caution to anyone who wants to type the word portelloni - autocorrect may try to change it to tortelloni which is not at all what we are talking about here lol

----
"he "woke the captain up when the wind was blowing at 20 knots". "He ordered to wake everyone else up", Griffiths told prosecutors, ANSA learned on Saturday.
"I then stored away the pillows and plants, closed the windows of the sitting room on the bow and some hatches", Griffiths also told investigators."
"The seaman did not talk about doors, for which he was not responsible, ANSA has learned."

Bayesian sailor 'woke captain up with strong wind' - General News - Ansa.it

Matthew Griffiths, the sailor who was on watch duty on the cockpit of the Bayesian on the night it sank on August 19, said he "woke the captain up when the wind was blowing at 20 knots". (ANSA)

www.ansa.it

-------
" Il marinaio non avrebbe parlato dei portelloni, che non erano di sua competenza.
'Ho svegliato il comandante quando il vento era a 20 nodi. Lui ha dato ordine di svegliare tutti gli altri. Io poi ho messo via i cuscini e le piante, chiuso le vetrate del salotto a prua e alcuni boccaporti' "

Marinaio Bayesian sentito dal pm. “Sbalzati in acqua e poi risaliti sullo yacht. Abbiamo salvato chi potevamo”

Matthew Griffiths, di guardia in plancia la notte del naufragio, ha ricostruito l’accaduto davanti agli investigatori. Nessuna scatola nera sul veliero. La difesa potrebbe chiedere consulenze meteo e ingegneristica. Tac sulle vittime, lunedì l’autopsia

www.quotidiano.net

***Bolding and underlining by me.

 

[Dotta]

"The crew members who survived the sinking of the Bayesian yacht off Sicily
have been staying at a seaside hotel — and running up a hefty bar tab
while trying to process the tragedy,
according to a local report.

'The survivors, young guys,
were having parties',

local site reported in Italian, citing a hotel worker.

'Even spending — said our source — 2,500 euros [$2,770 USD] a day just for drinking'."

Bayesian crew boozing to deal with yacht sinking tragedy at four-star Sicily hotel: source

The crew have now been told they’re free to leave the island as long as they make themselves available for extensive interviews with Italian authorities.

nypost.com

 

[RedHaus]

"The crew members who survived the sinking of the Bayesian yacht off Sicily
have been staying at a seaside hotel — and running up a hefty bar tab
while trying to process the tragedy,
according to a local report.

'The survivors, young guys,
were having parties',

local site reported in Italian, citing a hotel worker.

'Even spending — said our source — 2,500 euros [$2,770 USD] a day just for drinking'."

Bayesian crew boozing to deal with yacht sinking tragedy at four-star Sicily hotel: source

The crew have now been told they’re free to leave the island as long as they make themselves available for extensive interviews with Italian authorities.

nypost.com

Interesting. And I hate to suggest this because my presumption is that the crew are / were professionals, and this reported heavy drinking may be an acute coping mechanism for their trauma and grief. But I have to wonder, was there heavy drinking by any of the crew 18-8? I am sure investigators are querying that.

 

[RedHaus]

Blackbox sheds light on tragic final minutes of billionaire’s superyacht trip

Mike Lynch had gathered his nearest and dearest to toast walking away a free man from a HP fraud trial

www.independent.co.uk

RSBM
From the 2nd article you posted, albeit from early on, I read: "Boasting the tallest aluminium mast in the world - higher than Nelson’s Column - experts now speculate it may have caused her to topple and become pinned underwater in an unpredictable, ferocious storm."

We haven't explored much about this unique and massive aluminum mast in this thread. And I have come to believe the mast is actually intact from more recent reporting. But IF the mast did bend in half from the force of the downburst, imagine how that weight displacement would unsettle the Bayesian and cause it to tilt dramatically? Especially without the keel fully down.

But even if the mast is intact, without the keel fully down, what role did that design have to do with the tragedy? Could the mast have been a large enough mass, even without sails deployed, to aid the fierce wind in toppling the Bayesian?

 

[Baby baby Jane]

Interesting. And I hate to suggest this because my presumption is that the crew are / were professionals, and this reported heavy drinking may be an acute coping mechanism for their trauma and grief. But I have to wonder, was there heavy drinking by any of the crew 18-8? I am sure investigators are querying that.

IMO
Typical tabloid reporting.

 

[Dotta]

IMO
Typical tabloid reporting.

As we say in my country

"Walls have eyes and ears"

 

[Dotta]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1830326400940699916

"He said:
'I activated the generators and the hydraulic pump for the rudder.'

When asked crucially if all portholes and hatches, including where the yacht's tender was kept, were closed
he replied:
'Everything was shut'.

'The only thing open was the hatch to the engine room which from my point of view would not have caused the disaster
because it was at the other end from where the yacht went down'."

 

[I am not Sherlock H.]

RSBM
From the 2nd article you posted, albeit from early on, I read: "Boasting the tallest aluminium mast in the world - higher than Nelson’s Column - experts now speculate it may have caused her to topple and become pinned underwater in an unpredictable, ferocious storm."

We haven't explored much about this unique and massive aluminum mast in this thread. And I have come to believe the mast is actually intact from more recent reporting. But IF the mast did bend in half from the force of the downburst, imagine how that weight displacement would unsettle the Bayesian and cause it to tilt dramatically? Especially without the keel fully down.

But even if the mast is intact, without the keel fully down, what role did that design have to do with the tragedy? Could the mast have been a large enough mass, even without sails deployed, to aid the fierce wind in toppling the Bayesian?

Yes RedHaus…. I wonder about that high mast as well. Full disclosure, I am no yachtsman, seaman, nor engineer.

With sails furled (not deployed or unfurled), the keel retracted, IMO have to think that any tilting of that vessel from center….. with the height of that mast its weight alone if off balance could contribute to the vessel being unstable? And perhaps quickly? Wouldn’t it seem perhaps ‘top heavy’? And even if the mast remained intact that seems a lot of weight to counterbalance? In calm conditions alone, much less a storm or violent sea?

I also was wondering how much water this yacht ‘draws’ or its ‘draft’ in calm conditions (with the keel retracted). It seems rather sleek, and to reduce drag I imagine it isn’t much? Also wonder how far that keel extends and the surface area underwater it encompasses? I thought I read somewhere recently (was it Loose Cannon’s documentation on the Bayesian operating manual?) that the keel on her weighed ~52 tonnes? I think another term used in nautical realms is how much water a vessel displaces? But I don’t fully understand that concept either. MOO

 

[lonetraveler]

My late husband and I owned a tall-masted sloop with a retractable keel. My honest opinion is that the captain isn't telling the truth about the hatches being closed. I also don't think that the keel was down. I've been in the situation of a sudden downburst storm. No. 1, you always check the weather and keep the alert mode on. No. 2 make sure all hatches are closed and sails are furled. No. 3 put the keel down so you will have steering power so you can head into the wind. If anchor is down, you pull it up and ride it out. Usually if the boat is in a roll-position (I've had the tall mast hit the water during one storm, it will eventually pop back up like a cork because of the weight of the keel. Story doesn't add up. JMO

Had to correct the unfurled to furled.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

My late husband and I owned a tall-masted sloop with a retractable keel. My honest opinion is that the captain isn't telling the truth about the hatches being closed. I also don't think that the keel was down. I've been in the situation of a sudden downburst storm. No. 1, you always check the weather and keep the alert mode on. No. 2 make sure all hatches are closed and sails are unfurled. No. 3 put the keel down so you will have steering power so you can head into the wind. If anchor is down, you pull it up and ride it out. Usually if the boat is in a roll-position (I've had the tall mast hit the water during one storm, it will eventually pop back up like a cork because of the weight of the keel. Story doesn't add up. JMO

Your take makes a lot of sense to me, JMO.

 

[SouthAussie]

Interesting. And I hate to suggest this because my presumption is that the crew are / were professionals, and this reported heavy drinking may be an acute coping mechanism for their trauma and grief. But I have to wonder, was there heavy drinking by any of the crew 18-8? I am sure investigators are querying that.

Generally speaking, I think they can drink when off the boat, but not too much (or at all) when on the boat. I wouldn't think there would have been much drinking (if any) that night if they were all stuck out on the mooring.

You can't really have drunk crew members on a boat with guests.

Racing yachts don't allow any alcohol onboard, because they are always underway. Cruising boats are a bit different.
But one would hope that a yacht like the Bayesian had an alcohol policy limiting crew alcohol.

I do wonder though, if the passengers had done a lot of drinking that day. Maybe not the mum with the little one.


“We don’t have a formal policy,” said the mate. “But it’s expected that crew won’t drink if there are guests on board or if we’re underway and everyone must be responsible.” Fifty-nine percent of crew polled said their boat does have an alcohol policy.

“We absolutely do have an alcohol policy,” said Capt. Axel of motor/sailer MITseaAH. “In your free time, you may do what you like. But if we have guests on, there is absolutely no drinking, even if it’s for weeks at a time. If a crew member has even one beer while we’re underway, [he or she] will be fired. That’s just a matter of safety.”

https://www.dockwalk.com/news/work-hard-play-hard-yachties-and-alcohol

 

[SouthAussie]

"Italian prosecutors have admitted they did not conduct alcohol and drug testing on the vessel's crew - all but one of whom survived - because they needed treatment and were in shock."

Superyacht sinking probe failed to give crew drink and drug tests

Six passengers - including British tech tycoon Mike Lynch and his daughter Hannah - died alongside one member of the crew when the British-flagged pleasure yacht capsized on Monday.

www.dailymail.co.uk