Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000 #2

[Dr. Snoop]

If he had mental health issues, which is of course quite possible, he was certainly taking no medication for it as his blood came up free of anything.

I completely agree. It would be good if the police acquired information on mental health patients – understanding how many individuals diagnosed with psychotic or antisocial disorders in the town were prescribed medication and how consistently they purchased it. Checking the status of institutionalised patients, such as whether they were on leave or if any had escaped temporarily, could be valuable. Premeditated murder seems less likely in this case, as a perpetrator intending to commit such a heinous act would likely avoid leaving evidence. The individual involved, possibly dealing with a severe mental illness, stayed at the scene, displaying disturbed behaviour, and even indulged in some ice-cream (perhaps all he wanted?) It appears his actions were driven by illness rather than calculated intent.

 

[Frankie Hellis]

Weird -- to me it just looks like a window?

View attachment 487805

But there is what looks like a portable radiator at the bottom right so you are unable to determine if daylight would otherwise be visible down to the floor. I think curtains are often hung above sliders, especially if there is a need to have darkness, as in a bedroom.

I really am on board with this being the point of entry, from a perspective of how the crime played out. Coming through the bathroom apparently makes noise and coming through the front door and encountering Dad would ensue in a scuffle and alert the others in the house. Coming through the sliders would be much less noisy and it completely explains Rei being quietly subdued.

One thing that might point otherwise is the supposed sideways footprints by Rei’s bed. One would think they were made in blood and it doesn’t make sense the guy would go back in there and assume such a stance after the others were murdered. I suppose he could have, after killing Dad, gone back in there to wait for Niina and Mom to come back down from upstairs.

Did you see the raised ledge outside, beside the downstairs window? I wonder how high up he could get by standing on that ledge.

 

[Incoherent]

But there is what looks like a portable radiator at the bottom right so you are unable to determine if daylight would otherwise be visible down to the floor. I think curtains are often hung above sliders, especially if there is a need to have darkness, as in a bedroom.

That would be the air con unit for the loft bedroom. Do you see the pipe to the left of the unit running to the loft? That would be where a the AC is inside. If that was running on warm while Niina and Yasuko were sleeping (likely), it would also be making a low humming noise on the balcony.

 

[Charlot123]

I can only tell you that from speaking with the Chief, they are *uncertain* how he got in. The grandmother didn’t remember whether the door was locked or not as she entered or even if the front door was ajar

MOO - logically, unlikely the door was ajar, as the newspaper man saw no light in the windows, and he was driving by early in the morning. I assume he would have noticed a fully open door. But of course the grandmother doesn't remember, such horrible shock...

The possibility of breaking in through the front door is low given that the mailbox had a light that would switch on if someone came up to it, or was approaching the house. The possibility of being let in I can not discount. If it was a teenager and he did not look scary, they could have let him it. Only, he would have taken off his shoes, right? Yet he did have the shoes on.

 

[Incoherent]

Upon looking there are actually two air con units on Rei’s balcony - one either side.
The right side one leading to the loft and the left side one leading into Rei’s bedroom.

You can see the exact point the pipe enters is where the AC is inside Rei’s bedroom.




If I’m right in that they likely had both of these running to keep warm, two air con units on a balcony humming away would likely be enough for Mikio to second-guess any low level noise he may have heard outside the window behind him. Sometimes those units can bang a little especially when outputting hot air.

It could add to the theory how the killer entered from the balcony and was apparently not heard making noise when either walking on the car bonnet or hoisting himself up and over.

Going through those sliding doors he could creep right over to a sleeping Rei and begin to strangle him. No noisy fence, no struggle through the bathroom window, no cartwheeling down to the floor, no creeping around the corner past the stairs into the bedroom. Just a quick, silent walk across the bedroom and begin to kill.

 

[Charlot123]

Sorry, I should have been more clear – I meant all registered mental health patients, both in and out of the hospital, living in the town or within that district.

DNA analysis can provide information about gender, but estimating age from DNA is less accurate. While certain DNA markers can indicate sex, determining an individual's exact age from DNA is challenging. Age prediction may involve assessing specific markers associated with aging, but it is more of an estimate than an exact science.

The size of the telomeres could indicate at least an age bracket, I thought? Telomerase activity is different in individuals, hence it is an age range, but nowadays, there are several indices they can use. However, again, in science labs.

 

[Charlot123]

I completely agree. It would be good if the police acquired information on mental health patients – understanding how many individuals diagnosed with psychotic or antisocial disorders in the town were prescribed medication and how consistently they purchased it. Checking the status of institutionalised patients, such as whether they were on leave or if any had escaped temporarily, could be valuable. Premeditated murder seems less likely in this case, as a perpetrator intending to commit such a heinous act would likely avoid leaving evidence. The individual involved, possibly dealing with a severe mental illness, stayed at the scene, displaying disturbed behaviour, and even indulged in some ice-cream (perhaps all he wanted?) It appears his actions were driven by illness rather than calculated intent.

Another concern. If, as the Japanese blog/article assumes, the perpetrator could have come across Rei in an OP facility where Rei was taken for his speech/other issues, then maybe, checking what place Rei visited and who else visited it on the same days, could yield some interesting information?

 

[FacelessPodcast]

View attachment 487805

I completely agree. It would be good if the police acquired information on mental health patients – understanding how many individuals diagnosed with psychotic or antisocial disorders in the town were prescribed medication and how consistently they purchased it. Checking the status of institutionalised patients, such as whether they were on leave or if any had escaped temporarily, could be valuable. Premeditated murder seems less likely in this case, as a perpetrator intending to commit such a heinous act would likely avoid leaving evidence. The individual involved, possibly dealing with a severe mental illness, stayed at the scene, displaying disturbed behaviour, and even indulged in some ice-cream (perhaps all he wanted?) It appears his actions were driven by illness rather than calculated intent.

That he may well be suffering with mental illness, I cannot disagree with. buT I actually disagree re: this not being premeditated. He brought a knife, a low-brimmed hat, gloves, and covered his face with a handkerchief. Now all of this, conceivably, could have just been on his person, that's true. But the idea that he saw the balcony, got the idea, and just happened to have the equipment on him to both murder the family and hide his identity, it all just feels way too convenient. To me it feels like he knew they were there. Besides, a premeditated killer isn't above leaving evidence.

I'm also certain the TMPD looked at the local patients. Particularly because Rei was in contact with a facility for his developmental disorder. However, the evidence the killer leaves behind points to a distinct possibility he was not Japanese, not from the local area, and any records of his mental health struggles might well be found abroad. The fact that he was a foreigner / with a way out of Japan is only further supported by the fact that the TMPD have put over 280,000 personnel on this case since the year 2000 and found absolutely zip. Not a single fibre of this man was ever found again in Japan. My contention is, therefore, he's either Jason Bourne. Or he's dead somewhere (though please note there is a perpetual legal ruling for all unidentified bodies in Japan to have prints checked against this culprit). Or he simply left. I would bet heavily on the latter.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

MOO - logically, unlikely the door was ajar, as the newspaper man saw no light in the windows, and he was driving by early in the morning. I assume he would have noticed a fully open door. But of course the grandmother doesn't remember, such horrible shock...

The possibility of breaking in through the front door is low given that the mailbox had a light that would switch on if someone came up to it, or was approaching the house. The possibility of being let in I can not discount. If it was a teenager and he did not look scary, they could have let him it. Only, he would have taken off his shoes, right? Yet he did have the shoes on.

Yes, essentially the grandmother can't remember if the door was open or not or whether she then shut it behind her when she left to call for help. She discovered the bodies at 10am, the police were called closer to 11am. I'm assuming, then, she passed out to explain that lag.

The idea that the killer entered through the front door, given the sequence of the murders / the likelihood that Mikio would open the door after 10pm, while his daughter his sick, his son asleep, to a man that the police cannot work out having a single connection to him -- to me this is next to impossible.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Another concern. If, as the Japanese blog/article assumes, the perpetrator could have come across Rei in an OP facility where Rei was taken for his speech/other issues, then maybe, checking what place Rei visited and who else visited it on the same days, could yield some interesting information?

I would bet my bottom dollar that the TMPD already investigated that facility heavily. We know that they looked hard at this clinic as well as Niina's school. Zero leads, zero suspects (that were made public)

 

[Dr. Snoop]

View attachment 487805
Or he's dead somewhere (though please note there is a perpetual legal ruling for all unidentified bodies in Japan to have prints checked against this culprit). Or he simply left. I would bet heavily on the latter.

I lean towards the idea that the perpetrator may be a foreigner who left Japan or a former local resident who moved out of country. This aligns with the likelihood that the perp is still mentally unstable, potentially even a psychopath. In both cases, the perp might have crossed borders, which is calling for the police to investigate customs records for entries and exits on the day of the murder or shortly afterwards. It could be someone with a brief visit to Japan (if a foreigner) or someone who never came back.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

I lean towards the idea that the perpetrator may be a foreigner who left Japan or a former local resident who moved out of country. This aligns with the likelihood that the perp is still mentally unstable, potentially even a psychopath. In both cases, the perp might have crossed borders, which is calling for the police to investigate customs records for entries and exits on the day of the murder or shortly afterwards. It could be someone with a brief visit to Japan (if a foreigner) or someone who never came back.

We know that the TMPD immediately checked borders and airports for someone fitting their profile and they got nothing. In the case of a USAF man / dependent, that would explain this, as the Japanese would have zero records of any such exit from the country. And as for the killer coming back, we know that since 2007, this would be impossible -- ever since they introduced their fingerprinting system at Japanese airports. I'm with you, I think he left Japan and never returned. Psychopathy, or some kind of other neuropsychiatric disorder, I think is a very safe bet.

 

[lilykaluva]

I completely agree. It would be good if the police acquired information on mental health patients – understanding how many individuals diagnosed with psychotic or antisocial disorders in the town were prescribed medication and how consistently they purchased it. Checking the status of institutionalised patients, such as whether they were on leave or if any had escaped temporarily, could be valuable. Premeditated murder seems less likely in this case, as a perpetrator intending to commit such a heinous act would likely avoid leaving evidence. The individual involved, possibly dealing with a severe mental illness, stayed at the scene, displaying disturbed behaviour, and even indulged in some ice-cream (perhaps all he wanted?) It appears his actions were driven by illness rather than calculated intent.

Er, this may not be possible or a good idea for several reasons. Even in a society where mental health is still stigmatized (as it is in Japan), this would clearly be a massive overreach of profiling with uncomfortable ethics. Most mentally ill people (hi, I'm one) are not dangerous; if information about their illnesses are leaked, they could suffer consequences in their social lives for no fault of their own.

The best indication of mental illness leading to violence is, well, violence--which would mean examining a criminal log is far more likely to help lead to a suspect. Unless this person had exactly one exceedingly violent mental health incident ever, which is not how mental illness tends to work, they would have repeated something and been caught.

Especially psychosis. I know the media tells us psychotic people are the most dangerous, and there is some danger, but while someone who is psychotic is capable of planning (it's a misconception that they're not), I'd be absolutely shocked if a psychotic person would keep this secret for twenty years from the entire world. That's just not very realistic. That said, of course you can't rule anything out completely.

Antisocial personality is more likely, but there are some issues with that theory as well, particularly as it pertains to looking at medical records as a possible way to uncover them. If the killer is younger, and the TMPD seem certain he was, then antisocial personalities are likely not going to be diagnosed, even back then. They may well have it, but they wouldn't likely be in a system unless, again, they'd had previous instances of violence against people, which police would likely be involved in. Violence against animals, less likely for police involvement, but also less likely for institutionalization or mental health treatment especially in a society like Japan, where it is heavily stigmatized.

Someone with ASD would be able to keep a secret (very well), but most of them come across as charming and put-together in real life. Hence, they're unlikely to have been institutionalized. Of course there are some that aren't, but being less put together also means that they are less likely to successfully hide things.

The apparent (vast) contradictions between planning and sloppiness do not appear to be actions driven by illness to me, but instead immaturity. Of course, they aren't mutually exclusive, but it feels a bit icky to suggest that mental illness is the primary angle to look at.

 

[Rush4087]

@FacelessPodcast, was the “part-time restaurant worker” ever identified?
Tia

 

[Dr. Snoop]

I'd be absolutely shocked if a psychotic person would keep this secret for twenty years from the entire world. That's just not very realistic. That said, of course you can't rule anything out completely.

I guess, it depends on many things. The impact of disclosing a secret depends on the nature of the secret itself and how the revelation of certain information may affect an individual with a psychotic illness.


The lived experience of psychosis: a bottom‐up review co‐written by experts by experience and academics

 

[Dr. Snoop]

We know that the TMPD immediately checked borders and airports for someone fitting their profile and they got nothing. In the case of a USAF man / dependent, that would explain this, as the Japanese would have zero records of any such exit from the country. And as for the killer coming back, we know that since 2007, this would be impossible -- ever since they introduced their fingerprinting system at Japanese airports. I'm with you, I think he left Japan and never returned. Psychopathy, or some kind of other neuropsychiatric disorder, I think is a very safe bet.

Are there any CCTV images of the perpetrator or witness statements available? I was thinking about the ice-cream fest, considering that it would require a pretty large individual to consume an excessive amount of ice-cream at once. I wonder if this observation has garnered any feedback from readers—what if someone recognises a person known for their fervour for ice-cream?

 

[Dr. Snoop]

Anti-Inflammatory Diets and Schizophrenia

 

[Shamrock1]

Are there any CCTV images of the perpetrator or witness statements available? I was thinking about the ice-cream fest, considering that it would require a pretty large individual to consume an excessive amount of ice-cream at once. I wonder if this observation has garnered any feedback from readers—what if someone recognises a person known for their fervour for ice-cream?

The ice creams were small, individual serving-size containers, to my recollection.

 

[Charlot123]

Yes, essentially the grandmother can't remember if the door was open or not or whether she then shut it behind her when she left to call for help. She discovered the bodies at 10am, the police were called closer to 11am. I'm assuming, then, she passed out to explain that lag.

The idea that the killer entered through the front door, given the sequence of the murders / the likelihood that Mikio would open the door after 10pm, while his daughter his sick, his son asleep, to a man that the police cannot work out having a single connection to him -- to me this is next to impossible.

Yet these boards mention the killer's DNA in the household slippers casually. As well as the fact that red fluorescent dye on the perp's clothes matches the dye in Mikio's garage, that the perp was known not to enter on the day of murders. So the possibility of the perp having visited Miyazawa's house prior to the day of murders can not be excluded. It is my understanding that Yasuko's cram school was in the adjacent house, right?

The whole situation is not very clear. I wonder if the perp was marginally known to the family.

Let me offer a very hypothecal situation. There are countries where you can invite a notary for a house visit to a sick elderly person. And if the guest is polite, he may change shoes and wash hands, too. On a hot day, he can be offered water/tea in a kitchen. In short, he can know the layout of the house.

What profession in Japan can easily make a house visit? Or, could a colleague be invited to discuss some job? The Wikipedia discussed that Mikio was making clothes for actors at home, is it a possible situation?

 

[Charlot123]

Nic, not sure I understand this: "Funnily enough, my POI IS from a devoutly religious background. Obviously, military too. Two forms of supplication."

Supplication?

The way i understand it, "supplication" in this case would mean kowtowing before the authority, be it the colonel or the deity. (But also, religious institutions and the military alike are ritualistic and predictable, and certain type of people who might struggle in regular community would thrive in both because of highly regimented atmosphere. - JMO).