Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000 #3

[Hausos]

Results indicate that Japan maintains near-perfect homicide clearance rates of around 95 percent, compared with roughly 60 percent in the United States. Several incident-level characteristics which increase the likelihood of homicide clearance were more common in Japanese than in American homicides. Most obvious was Japan’s much higher proportion of homicides committed with weapons other than firearms; cases involving a firearm weapon are less likely to clear than those involving a knife or strangulation as the lack of close contact with the victim means that less physical evidence is found. Japan also had a much higher proportion of family homicides than the United States; homicides committed by offenders known to the victim had a greater chance of clearance than those perpetrated by a stranger. Japan had a higher proportion of homicides of children younger than 13 than the United States; homicide incidents with child victims were found to have a greater chance of clearance. Hard to clear homicides with teenage or young adult victims were less common in Japan than in the United States. The Japanese categorization of homicide in official statistics, which excludes robbery-homicide and includes attempted homicide, was determined to be somewhat favorable for producing high clearance rates in Japanese official homicide statistics. Japan’s higher homicide clearance rates might therefore lead to a conclusion that Japanese police are more effective that their American counterparts. However, factors unrelated to police effectiveness, such as clearance-friendly incident characteristics, and the categorization of homicides in official statistics play some part in producing Japan’s high homicide clearance rates. Clearance rates should not be used exclusively to compare police effectiveness and performance, or police-citizen cooperation in the two countries.

Explaining Differences in Homicide Clearance Rates Between Japan and the United States | Office of Justice Programs

www.ojp.gov

 

[Hausos]

Around less than 4% of crime in Japan is committed by foreigners. Out of those crimes - overstaying visas, theft, and sexual harassment/assault top the list. It’s said that 0.3% (possibly less) of that 4% statistic consists of murders. The vast majority of those murders are committed surprisingly by Vietnamese and Chinese nationals.

If this killer actually turns out to be an American, given the odds, this would top being of the most unique prep in one of the most unique cases in the world. Basically, what I’m trying to say is, the son of American military personnel deciding to go out and pick some random family in some random residential area to murder is extremely, extremely against the odds. Many seem to also think the air base is related… the air base is nearly 50 km away from the house. it’s just odd.

「外国人労働者＝犯罪」は思い込み？統計データから見える事実とは - 外国人雇用相談室

外国人労働者の犯罪は、日本側の対応に問題があるケースが大半です。自社でトラブルを発生させないためには、外国人労働者の実像を理解し、社内体制を整える必要があります。本稿では、統計データから見る犯罪の現状や、企業側の責任、犯罪を防ぐ方法について解説します。

ghrlab.com

Japan: share of arrested foreigners by nationality 2023 | Statista

In 2023, 36.7 percent of foreigners who were arrested in Japan for criminal offenses or law violations were Vietnamese.

www.statista.com

To translate, ベトナム is Vietnam. The second one is China as we know. And the third one is Philippines. Fourth is Brazil.

 

[Charlot123]

.

Yes, totally agree. We could argue this either way, as with so much in this case. I guess the TMPD had enough info to be sure of the shoe model but not the size in order to make a reproduction. Now, we know they conducted experiments in the house and outside of it so perhaps we can infer that his footprint simply didn't tell them enough.

More broadly on these detectives, brain dump warning: The TMPD, in my view, aren't particularly concerned with clarifying much for the general public, as a rule. Like each country, there are plusses and minuses to that institution. It depends on what we are measuring, whether logically or anecdotally.

On the one hand, the TMPD clearance rate is exceptional -- far outstripping any state in the USA for example, (including that most esteemed of institutions, the FBI). I do not find it realistic that, a case such as this having taken place in the US or the UK, would still have 30-40 detectives investigating full-time 24 years later. In which other nation on earth would we be talking about fingerprinting men in the hundreds of thousands / even millions? Or the number of personnel on this case eclipsing the population of major cities? As I say, I have seen the lengths they have gone to in order to find this killer. Some I have spoken about here, some I have not. Maybe a few of you will assume I'm 'pro-police' (though anybody who knows me would find that laughable). Yet when all is said and done, fair's fair. I think they've sweated blood and tears here. I've seen real emotion when talking about the victims, both living and dead. Chief Tsuchita, for example, is long-retired. He does not check in frequently with Setsuko for professional reasons.

The flip-side to this is that the Japanese context is a 99.99999% conviction rate, akin to Russia / North Korea. They have more powers than any comparable police force on earth and a central tenet of their legal system is confession; 23 days to hold you without charge. Most people, after the better part of a month in a cell, are simply going to confess and worry about it later. A friend of mine was a court reporter for years there. The most respected defence lawyer in town, over lunch one day and one too many beers, finally admitted the number of accused he'd successfully managed to get acquittal for throughout his entire career. It was fewer than 5.

All of that will colour the approach and thinking of the first detectives on scene, right up to Chief Tsuchita. I am open about my admiration and friendship with him. We are bonded by our respect, I believe, for Setsuko and the Miyazawa Family. Yet I have disagreed with him many times (both here and in private). To repeat: I do not say that they are above reproach or that their actions cannot be questioned. That wouldn't make sense, given that I've just posted about the lack of investigation abroad, for example. But overall, I just want to say that they know how to walk and chew gum at the same time. They will not have been bamboozled by something elementary. My view is that we ought to accept, if only to save time, that they will have checked and triple-checked pretty much any 'theory' we have discussed here, from the obvious ranging to the fantastical:

*Yasuko's home school business.
*A skateboarder driven to homicide for being told to make less noise.
*A murderous monk.
*Some sort of vendetta from the mob.
*Biker gang initiation [if slaughtering an entire family is the way in to the gang, what are membership numbers like?]
*The preposterous 'land-grab' theory via Ichihashi involving a Korean pilot man-turned-hitman involving the moonies.

All JMO.

It read a lot about the case and come to a conclusion that TMPD has a lot of pieces and can't assemble the puzzle out of them. Maybe indeed they have to change their DNA laws. According to what you say, it may end up to leading some unjustly convicted out of jail, but it has happened everywhere.

So looking at "23 years after the murders, they still can't solve it - why?" comes to,

- the killer left a lot of clues, but they all were of "biological" nature, hence, unusable by Japanese laws
- the killer has left the country in a very short period of time after the murders
- the killer's departure did not require fingerprints
- the killer is still in the country but his lifestyle makes him "faceless"
- the killer is dead

If I see your point correctly, Nic, you are looking at nr. 3 version. Which is interesting, only the first question that comes to my mind is, are US servicemen the only group that doesn't require fingerprints when leaving Japan? What about all VIP sector? What about diplomats, of any country? What about any VIP level delegation that visits, with lots of own secretaries and cooks, perhaps, and then leaves? Any embassy? To make it a question, is there a list of all groups whose arrival/departure from Japan doesn't require fingerprints? And then narrow down from there.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Clearance rates should not be used exclusively to compare police effectiveness and performance, or police-citizen cooperation in the two countries.

RSBM: Right. Which is why I made the point about their absurd conviction rate / integral role of confession in their legal system. Thus, comparing the TMPD to the FBI in the first place, [or another institution thousands of miles away], is likely going to be redundant, in my view. Ditto for drawing conclusions via per-hour labour productivity. Apples and oranges, as they say.

RE: the second point about the killer being unique. I don't have access to this website but I'm assuming those crime figures are based on crime where we have an idea about the perpetrator? At any rate, I agree with you on that front. Though I would quibble the word unique. Other Americans have murdered people in Japan.

 

[Hausos]

RSBM: Right. Which is why I made the point about their absurd conviction rate / integral role of confession in their legal system. Thus, comparing the TMPD to the FBI in the first place, [or another institution thousands of miles away], is likely going to be redundant, in my view. Ditto for drawing conclusions via per-hour labour productivity. Apples and oranges, as they say.

RE: the second point about the killer being unique. I don't have access to this website but I'm assuming those crime figures are based on crime where we have an idea about the perpetrator? At any rate, I agree with you on that front. Though I would quibble the word unique. Other Americans have murdered people in Japan.

I agree. But I only mentioned the productivity because someone posted nearly 280,000+ officers have investigated this case. Japan is one of my favorite countries in the world, but it’s pretty much known they work long hours unnecessarily and they don’t have the productivity to show for it. It’s basically show up to work and do your hours, stay late to make boss happy, etc. If you’ve been to Tokyo you’ll see dozens and dozens of officers just standing around doing nothing. Sometimes they even question every passerby randomly for no reason. So when I read 280,000 officers have been assigned to the case… idk. It depends on their productivity after all and if they are able to effectively follow up on a lead.

Other Americans have certainly committed murders in Japan but there were clear motives. Being a deranged sexual deviant, money, torturing the “enemy”… etc.

This is actually one of the main problems w this case imo: the motive aspect. If we figure out the motive, we’d get really far. Regardless if the prep is American or Japanese, I can’t seem to understand his motive was. If this is a random rage crime, it seems to be more “Japanese”.

 

[Cryptic]

How often would a military family stationed in Asia be transferred to another base in Asia? I am not a military person but I suspect if you rotate military personnel, from Korea to Japan is not ideal, at least not according to my logic.
I can imagine a situation when a contractor would hold the profession ultra necessary in the military. Then he may have a certain say there. I can even imagine occasionally consulting for both bases as the flight is not super long.

From my experience in a military family, military families stay at a duty rotation for 3-4 years as a broad rule.

There are a few exceptions. For example, ubber specialized servicemen will stay at duty locations longer as there are fewer people to rotate and fewer places to rotate to. Likewise, servicemen can ask for duty extensions- but these were hard, or even very hard, to get for a variety of reasons.

As for Asia to Asia rotations, I would say.... clearly possible if the serviceman requested it. As a side note, units in Korea at that time were considered "forward deployed". That likely meant more training, more alerts, and.... less free time. So, Japan, followed by Korea would probably have been easier to arrange than Korea, followed by Japan.

As for contractors.... My impression from teacher turn over was that they were on 3-4 year contracts. But with teachers (and probably other contractors as well).... there were also a noticeable number of "homesteading" contractors who had extended their contracts for years. In contrast, "homesteading" servicemen via duty extensions were rare.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

I agree. But I only mentioned the productivity because someone posted nearly 280,000+ officers have investigated this case. Japan is one of my favorite countries in the world, but it’s pretty much known they work long hours unnecessarily and they don’t have the productivity to show for it.

RSBM: Japan is one of my favourite countries in the world, too. I'd hope this hasn't coloured my thoughts in the negative or the positive throughout this thread/my podcast/ongoing investigation. But within the limited scope of my own experience in Japan, I have seen people sitting around doing nothing. I have also seen many working incredibly hard.

It’s basically show up to work and do your hours, stay late to make boss happy, etc. If you’ve been to Tokyo you’ll see dozens and dozens of officers just standing around doing nothing. Sometimes they even question every passerby randomly for no reason. So when I read 280,000 officers have been assigned to the case… idk. It depends on their productivity after all and if they are able to effectively follow up on a lead.

If we're talking about koban officers standing around, that's basically their job isn't it? A visible presence to deter louts, thugs etc. We have a community support equivalent in London. At any rate, I'm not disputing work productivity in and of itself. I can only tell you what I've witnessed first-hand with TMPD detectives. Not a koban guy dealing with a cat stuck up a tree. And in that first-hand experience, they worked extremely hard. I say that because I don't accept the premise that them not solving this case has any correlation with productivity. Otherwise, we can infer the Zodiac detectives were just munching donuts and reading their horoscopes, or that Inspector Abberline was down the pub instead of out trying to catch the Ripper etc.

Other Americans have certainly committed murders in Japan but there were clear motives. Being a deranged sexual deviant, money, torturing the “enemy”… etc.

Sure, knowing why would help us know who. I still quibble uniqueness. And do we know the motive of every single American who has killed in Japan? Didn't William Girard kill Naka Sakai for seemingly his own amusement? Did they ever conclude if there was an underlying reason? At any rate, perhaps one could assign him a motive more readily than our killer in the Miyazawa case.

This is actually one of the main problems w this case imo: the motive aspect. If we figure out the motive, we’d get really far. Regardless if the prep is American or Japanese, I can’t seem to understand his motive was. If this is a random rage crime, it seems to be more “Japanese”.

I agree motive would get us much, much closer to him. I would guess it would lead the TMPD to his door, most likely. Though I don't see rage as being a unique trait versus American.

Also, the base is not almost 50km away from Soshigaya Park. I believe it's 35km. At any rate, Tokyo is huge. Soshigaya Park being a 40ish-minute drive away doesn't put a logic barrier up to the son of a USAF man being there. Whether for a good reason, or whether to mooch the skate shops in nearby Ogikubo etc. By that logic, he wouldn't ever see the Imperial Palace which is 50km away. Or Shinjuku which is 45 etc.

I don't dispute that this killer is rare or an outlier. It's a nation where you're more likely to die taking a selfie than be murdered for one thing. But rarity is not the same thing as impossibility. How many Japanese travelled to Paris in the 1980s to cannibalise Dutch women? Statistically? Yet Issei Sagawa is real etc.

At any rate, I'm happy to agree to disagree. Thank you for your contributions to the thread.

 

[BatataPoha]

Yes, totally agree. We could argue this either way, as with so much in this case. I guess the TMPD had enough info to be sure of the shoe model but not the size in order to make a reproduction. Now, we know they conducted experiments in the house and outside of it so perhaps we can infer that his footprint simply didn't tell them enough.

More broadly on these detectives, brain dump warning: The TMPD, in my view, aren't particularly concerned with clarifying much for the general public, as a rule. Like each country, there are plusses and minuses to that institution. It depends on what we are measuring, whether logically or anecdotally.

On the one hand, the TMPD clearance rate is exceptional -- far outstripping any state in the USA for example, (including that most esteemed of institutions, the FBI). I do not find it realistic that, a case such as this having taken place in the US or the UK, would still have 30-40 detectives investigating full-time 24 years later. In which other nation on earth would we be talking about fingerprinting men in the hundreds of thousands / even millions? Or the number of personnel on this case eclipsing the population of major cities? As I say, I have seen the lengths they have gone to in order to find this killer. Some I have spoken about here, some I have not. Maybe a few of you will assume I'm 'pro-police' (though anybody who knows me would find that laughable). Yet when all is said and done, fair's fair. I think they've sweated blood and tears here. I've seen real emotion when talking about the victims, both living and dead. Chief Tsuchita, for example, is long-retired. He does not check in frequently with Setsuko for professional reasons.

The flip-side to this is that the Japanese context is a 99.99999% conviction rate, akin to Russia / North Korea. They have more powers than any comparable police force on earth and a central tenet of their legal system is confession; 23 days to hold you without charge. Most people, after the better part of a month in a cell, are simply going to confess and worry about it later. A friend of mine was a court reporter for years there. The most respected defence lawyer in town, over lunch one day and one too many beers, finally admitted the number of accused he'd successfully managed to get acquittal for throughout his entire career. It was fewer than 5.

All of that will colour the approach and thinking of the first detectives on scene, right up to Chief Tsuchita. I am open about my admiration and friendship with him. We are bonded by our respect, I believe, for Setsuko and the Miyazawa Family. Yet I have disagreed with him many times (both here and in private). To repeat: I do not say that they are above reproach or that their actions cannot be questioned. That wouldn't make sense, given that I've just posted about the lack of investigation abroad, for example. But overall, I just want to say that they know how to walk and chew gum at the same time. They will not have been bamboozled by something elementary. My view is that we ought to accept, if only to save time, that they will have checked and triple-checked pretty much any 'theory' we have discussed here, from the obvious ranging to the fantastical:

*Yasuko's home school business.
*A skateboarder driven to homicide for being told to make less noise.
*A murderous monk.
*Some sort of vendetta from the mob.
*Biker gang initiation [if slaughtering an entire family is the way in to the gang, what are membership numbers like?]
*The preposterous 'land-grab' theory via Ichihashi involving a Korean pilot man-turned-hitman involving the moonies.

All JMO.

Mostly agreed. I don’t think anyone here seriously questions that the TMPD has not worked hard on this in good faith, but because it has not produced any obvious results, it is fair to question stuff naturally here.

As far as your assessment goes, I think you are right that the TMPD must have ruled out most of the obvious theories, which is why we have to lean towards more and more fantastical ones here.

 

[BatataPoha]

.


It read a lot about the case and come to a conclusion that TMPD has a lot of pieces and can't assemble the puzzle out of them. Maybe indeed they have to change their DNA laws. According to what you say, it may end up to leading some unjustly convicted out of jail, but it has happened everywhere.

So looking at "23 years after the murders, they still can't solve it - why?" comes to,

- the killer left a lot of clues, but they all were of "biological" nature, hence, unusable by Japanese laws
- the killer has left the country in a very short period of time after the murders
- the killer's departure did not require fingerprints
- the killer is still in the country but his lifestyle makes him "faceless"
- the killer is dead

If I see your point correctly, Nic, you are looking at nr. 3 version. Which is interesting, only the first question that comes to my mind is, are US servicemen the only group that doesn't require fingerprints when leaving Japan? What about all VIP sector? What about diplomats, of any country? What about any VIP level delegation that visits, with lots of own secretaries and cooks, perhaps, and then leaves? Any embassy? To make it a question, is there a list of all groups whose arrival/departure from Japan doesn't require fingerprints? And then narrow down from there.

Its between random obscure Japanese vs random obscure foreigner at this point.

 

[BatataPoha]

I agree motive would get us much, much closer to him. I would guess it would lead the TMPD to his door, most likely. Though I don't see rage as being a unique trait versus American.

I would disagree with the first. The killer has shown quite a good level of preparedness and assessment in planning the kills. His execution of it was a bit botched but he was determined to get the job done till the end. Then after cooling down he demonstrates a decent level of composure in a pretty tense situation, the ability to adjust things on thr fly and form a decent exit strategy.

All in all, I am saying the killer shows some remarkable traits here to get the job done. If he doesn’t have an obvious personal connect with the victims, then this kinda determination points more towards some rather obtuse motives rather than the commonplace ones.

Imagine the motive of the Zodiac killer, that makes no sense to anyone other than him. I am not equating the two, but I am just saying the motive is fairly likely to be a rather complex one.

JMO.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

I would disagree with the first. The killer has shown quite a good level of preparedness and assessment in planning the kills. His execution of it was a bit botched but he was determined to get the job done till the end. Then after cooling down he demonstrates a decent level of composure in a pretty tense situation, the ability to adjust things on thr fly and form a decent exit strategy.

All in all, I am saying the killer shows some remarkable traits here to get the job done. If he doesn’t have an obvious personal connect with the victims, then this kinda determination points more towards some rather obtuse motives rather than the commonplace ones.

Imagine the motive of the Zodiac killer, that makes no sense to anyone other than him. I am not equating the two, but I am just saying the motive is fairly likely to be a rather complex one.

JMO.

I agree with you that his motives are clearly not obvious. But if we were able to divine his motives more easily, I do think this would mean his arrest would be much more likely to have already occurred.

Not that this moves the needle very much. If my grandmother had wheels she'd be a bicycle etc.

 

[Charlot123]

Around less than 4% of crime in Japan is committed by foreigners. Out of those crimes - overstaying visas, theft, and sexual harassment/assault top the list. It’s said that 0.3% (possibly less) of that 4% statistic consists of murders. The vast majority of those murders are committed surprisingly by Vietnamese and Chinese nationals.

If this killer actually turns out to be an American, given the odds, this would top being of the most unique prep in one of the most unique cases in the world. Basically, what I’m trying to say is, the son of American military personnel deciding to go out and pick some random family in some random residential area to murder is extremely, extremely against the odds. Many seem to also think the air base is related… the air base is nearly 50 km away from the house. it’s just odd.

「外国人労働者＝犯罪」は思い込み？統計データから見える事実とは - 外国人雇用相談室

外国人労働者の犯罪は、日本側の対応に問題があるケースが大半です。自社でトラブルを発生させないためには、外国人労働者の実像を理解し、社内体制を整える必要があります。本稿では、統計データから見る犯罪の現状や、企業側の責任、犯罪を防ぐ方法について解説します。

ghrlab.com

Japan: share of arrested foreigners by nationality 2023 | Statista

In 2023, 36.7 percent of foreigners who were arrested in Japan for criminal offenses or law violations were Vietnamese.

www.statista.com

To translate, ベトナム is Vietnam. The second one is China as we know. And the third one is Philippines. Fourth is Brazil.

Statistically speaking, the likelihood of the person to be "an average local" is the highest. Plus, I think situationally, it would be easier for the person who lives, stays or studies nearby to do it and go home, than from a non-Setagayan to travel, find the victims, spend the time, and then go back.

The latter is still possible, if by car. Here is something to consider. I read yesterday that the Setagaya park had a parking lot that would close by 4:45 pm or so on that day, but I don't know what "closed" means. It is in the "less likely" realm, but does raise an additional question, when did the lot open the next morning? The sunset in Tokyo on Dec 30, 2000, was 4:37 pm, and the sunrise on Dec 31, 6:51 AM. If the parking hours are tied to the daytime, it was possible to park, stay till the lot would open, and leave. Additional "unnoticed people" in my list after mailmen and garbage collectors would be the parking lot managers and the park maintenance.

Regarding Chinese/Vietnamese/Brazilian population. Are they well enough economically to settle in Setagaya and not stand out? One cannot exclude a foreigner working nearby and knowing the area well. However, TMPD had initially set on a foreigner, it seems. I imagine they went through all local businesses employing foreigners with a fine-tooth comb. The person could still fly under the radar if he were an unofficial "helper", a nephew to the business owner, for example. But then, the chance is, the person is long out of the country. There are probably ways to bypass Japanese airports.

I sometimes wonder what made the police think the killer was a non-local? Was it a mistake of the police, to assume that the perpetrator was not local based on the violence of the crime? Or did they have a factual reason? Also, the age of the offender, 15-40? They didn't have the DNA technology to determine the age in 2001. Did the police assume by the strength necessary to scale the house, or did they see some indication of sexual frustration more expectable in that age group?

 

[FacelessPodcast]

I read yesterday that the Setagaya park had a parking lot that would close by 4:45 pm or so on that day, but I don't know what "closed" means.

RSBM: Interesting. Where did you read this? From my understanding, it bothered Yasuko that someone was parking too near the house *after dark*. That was close to the murders so we can assume that this includes after 5pm.

However, TMPD had initially set on a foreigner, it seems.

No, this is something I want to be clear about. The Korean possibility aside, the TMPD have never favoured the idea the killer was foreign. This is something the Chief said he assumed on first seeing the bodies. But he was sharing his first impression, it’s not his actual stance, and definitely not that of the TMPD.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

- the killer left a lot of clues, but they all were of "biological" nature, hence, unusable by Japanese laws
- the killer has left the country in a very short period of time after the murders
- the killer's departure did not require fingerprints
- the killer is still in the country but his lifestyle makes him "faceless"
- the killer is dead

If I see your point correctly, Nic, you are looking at nr. 3 version. Which is interesting, only the first question that comes to my mind is, are US servicemen the only group that doesn't require fingerprints when leaving Japan? What about all VIP sector? What about diplomats, of any country? What about any VIP level delegation that visits, with lots of own secretaries and cooks, perhaps, and then leaves? Any embassy? To make it a question, is there a list of all groups whose arrival/departure from Japan doesn't require fingerprints? And then narrow down from there.

RSBM: I don’t think diplomats were or are expected to provide fingerprints in the way everyone else is. However, they do have to use passports / book tickets etc. I would imagine that the TMPD’s checks at the airports would have included all males with hand injuries, irrespective of their diplomatic status but I can’t say for sure.

It’s definitely a possibility that the killer has some kind of immunity or special protection and would go some way to explaining the circumstances. But I have a hard time the ambassador from Belize or Belgium or Bangladesh would slaughter a family one fine day. But that doesn’t make it impossible…