Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000 #3

[FacelessPodcast]

Thank you!
@FacelessPodcast, when you say "manual" strangulation, do you mean "purely by hands"? I would think, a garrote, a string or a strong wire would be less energy-consuming.
Why would it matter? The intent. I am torn between whether the plan was:
- to slightly smother and abduct Rei
- to incapacitate Rei and abduct Niina (if he didn't know that she was upstairs that day)
- or, to kill everyone

I wouldn't make much of the increasing savageness of the murders so far. But in general, I can't quite fathom what his initial plan was. It did appear an overkill, tbh. The only situation that would make any sense, if anything makes the sense, would be some form of sexually inappropriate behavior with one of the kids (Rei?), then Niina informing the parents, then the parents getting connected to the perpetrator or his parents, who had a good future ahead of him (a good student? Planning to enter Tokyo University, perhaps?).

RSBM: The sexual motive is where I was when first reading about this case. Having never spoken to the TMPD, I was left with assumption. However, sexual abusers of children (or abductors) almost always engage in opportunistic behaviour versus this all-out assault. On the face of it, him expecting to find Niina in her bedroom, only for Rei to be alone and to wake up, could've led him to having to silence the boy, at which point Mikio climbs the stairs, and he goes from there.

However, why doesn't he run away when Rei wakes up? Why does he not assault Niina after death? I can't discount any of this, as you know. But I find it unlikely that such a loser sexually obsessed with a little girl wouldn't have blipped on the radar SOMEWHERE. Yet nowhere. Can a garden variety pervert switch to stabbing people in the face on a dime? Yes, it's possible. But having never blipped anywhere before? The weight of 280,000+ cops looking into this family and not one of them uncovers a man watching her? And to be clear, the stories you'll find on google of a peeping tom problem at Niina's school are BS. I don't know, I can't refute it, like I say. But for the bodies to be untouched sexually? No semen at the scene anywhere? It's possible that was his initial driver but then after injury, he lost that appetite, I suppose.

Then the rest makes some sense: the intercom buzzing at 8:30 or so,

Again, I have not seen this intercom buzz verified anywhere I trust.

the perpetrator coming to talk to the Miyazawas, the sounds of quarreling voices,

by quarrelling voices, do you refer to Mikio's arguments with the skaters? If so, this is up for dispute with no definitive conclusion. The skaters I all spoke to say they never heard of this. That doesn't mean it didn't happen, of course. On the night of the murders, to be clear, there was no reported quarrel.

the Miyazawas refusing to recant, then the perp leaving and coming/driving back a tad later to silence the whole family.

We assume that car parking too close could well be the killer. My gut tells me it is. But we simply don't know. There are some reports of a man "with a foreign accent" calling Mikio's car dealership in the weeks before the murder asking about his Citroen Xanthia, and, possibly, trying to get an address out of them.

That could explain why Rei was killed in a reasonably merciless way, why the violence escalated and why Niina was killed in a "punishing" way.

Having been strangled myself in fights, I would dispute there is any kind of mercy in this. And when we are putting the pain of stabbing on one side of the scales versus the life choked out of you, I'm not sure if there is any firm conclusion other than horrific. En fin, the view of him killing Rei 'kindly' versus Niina brutally is one I understand but do not share.

In the broad sense, there is absolutely zero evidence the killer had any kind of connection to the family as things stand. Zero. So, if Niina was going to rat on some man and he needed to silence her before that happened? Technically possible. But right now that's pie in the sky. I also think that name would be out there somewhere, even in that scenario.

But this would be just one of potential motives. He could be looking for a "report" or "complaint" written by the parents, IMHO.

How would such a scenario exist nowhere? We might say that's because he found it and took it with him. But would Mikio be typing up a report at home without telling her school / the local police / his mother / his family next door? Would Yasuko not at least mention a 'problem' --ANY problem-- to her colleague, her friends? I just don't buy that something grave enough to kill them for could occur in a vacuum and that the collective efforts of these detectives wouldn't be able to uncover it. JMO.

 

[Charlot123]

RSBM: The sexual motive is where I was when first reading about this case. Having never spoken to the TMPD, I was left with assumption. However, sexual abusers of children (or abductors) almost always engage in opportunistic behaviour versus this all-out assault. On the face of it, him expecting to find Niina in her bedroom, only for Rei to be alone and to wake up, could've led him to having to silence the boy, at which point Mikio climbs the stairs, and he goes from there.

However, why doesn't he run away when Rei wakes up? Why does he not assault Niina after death? I can't discount any of this, as you know. But I find it unlikely that such a loser sexually obsessed with a little girl wouldn't have blipped on the radar SOMEWHERE. Yet nowhere. Can a garden variety pervert switch to stabbing people in the face on a dime? Yes, it's possible. But having never blipped anywhere before? The weight of 280,000+ cops looking into this family and not one of them uncovers a man watching her? And to be clear, the stories you'll find on google of a peeping tom problem at Niina's school are BS. I don't know, I can't refute it, like I say. But for the bodies to be untouched sexually? No semen at the scene anywhere? It's possible that was his initial driver but then after injury, he lost that appetite, I suppose.

Again, I have not seen this intercom buzz verified anywhere I trust.

by quarrelling voices, do you refer to Mikio's arguments with the skaters? If so, this is up for dispute with no definitive conclusion. The skaters I all spoke to say they never heard of this. That doesn't mean it didn't happen, of course. On the night of the murders, to be clear, there was no reported quarrel.

We assume that car parking too close could well be the killer. My gut tells me it is. But we simply don't know. There are some reports of a man "with a foreign accent" calling Mikio's car dealership in the weeks before the murder asking about his Citroen Xanthia, and, possibly, trying to get an address out of them.

Having been strangled myself in fights, I would dispute there is any kind of mercy in this. And when we are putting the pain of stabbing on one side of the scales versus the life choked out of you, I'm not sure if there is any firm conclusion other than horrific. En fin, the view of him killing Rei 'kindly' versus Niina brutally is one I understand but do not share.

In the broad sense, there is absolutely zero evidence the killer had any kind of connection to the family as things stand. Zero. So, if Niina was going to rat on some man and he needed to silence her before that happened? Technically possible. But right now that's pie in the sky. I also think that name would be out there somewhere, even in that scenario.

How would such a scenario exist nowhere? We might say that's because he found it and took it with him. But would Mikio be typing up a report at home without telling her school / the local police / his mother / his family next door? Would Yasuko not at least mention a 'problem' --ANY problem-- to her colleague, her friends? I just don't buy that something grave enough to kill them for could occur in a silence and that the collective efforts of these detectives wouldn't be able to uncover it. JMO.

Do you think, then, that the perpetrator, your poi:

- being, essentially a foreigner, regardless of his ethnic roots
- living far away from the house
- being, as you suspect, on the higher level of intelligence
- simply wanted to try how it would feel to commit murders? Computers, some tendency to isolate, expanded imaginary world, well it happens. It is a group that is somewhat different from school shooters (way more hedonistic), although there are "bridge" traits, I think Eric Harris was such a case.

It is not impossible. But then, IMHO, the killer belongs to a certain group where the distribution of personality traits would be not that of a bell curve, but more bimodal. I have seen such communities, but very few. I don't imply ethnicity, more religious and culture-bound traits.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Do you think, then, that the perpetrator, your poi:

- being, essentially a foreigner, regardless of his ethnic roots
- living far away from the house
- being, as you suspect, on the higher level of intelligence
- simply wanted to try how it would feel to commit murders? Computers, some tendency to isolate, expanded imaginary world, well it happens. It is a group that is somewhat different from school shooters (way more hedonistic), although there are "bridge" traits, I think Eric Harris was such a case.

It is not impossible. But then, IMHO, the killer belongs to a certain group where the distribution of personality traits would be not that of a bell curve, but more bimodal. I have seen such communities, but very few. I don't imply ethnicity, more religious and culture-bound traits.

I'm not going to give any major details away about him but I've been open that my guess is that the killer was driven by anger. Not necessarily angry at the Miyazawas, although it's possible they did something to piss him off. But, spurred by recent major disappointments and emotional reversals in life, was so motivated and electrified by rage, that the family became his bloody project. Without saying I'm talking about my POI, when someone is so used to 'winning', so used to control, that they are suddenly crestfallen, it's not just a disappointment -- their whole identity is brought into question.

In general, I'm not a huge fan of profiles / profiling. I don't denigrate the practice, it's just not my cup of tea. But what I will say is all the killer's elements that users here have found unlikely to find in the son of USAF man -- every single element -- is present. So yes, it is 1000% possible. As I've said, either this man is extremely extremely unlucky. Or he's the one.

Either is possible.

 

[Charlot123]

"Profiling" it is lacking statistical data, through no fault of the profilers. Most killers never admit, so true statistics about "what drove them" is grossly missing. In this case, TMPD had 23 years of profiling, and it led them nowhere. We all know what can help this case.
Rage is an emotional problem. Strange that the perpetrator had no major issues later, IMHO. I strongly suspect that the killer, whoever he is, is also control-driven, so, both suicidal and homicidal. This is how I explain his illogical behavior after murders; there were probably enough knives in Miyazawas' kitchen. Had Haruko come earlier, there'd be one more body, and if police came, he'd probably kill himself. JMO.

 

[Incoherent]

Sorry to backpedal to graffiti again, but as I was mentioning earlier a 17 year old was taken to the police in 2021 for graffitiing the wall and park in 5 different places in 2020. He was just quoted as he “wanted to do it” and it isn’t related in any way, images here:


But my reason for bringing this up again is actually due to this short report on it, where you get a very clear image of the kid’s park behind the house for those that are curious:

Something I had forgotten to mention previously is that where the reporter is stood in this video, it was possible to see directly to the Miyazawa’s bathroom window. It is like a raised platform in the park. I stood there myself and could see over the wall and to the window. If it were open as reported then you could see inside. However if you did so you’d be standing right under the light from a street lamp.

And to be clear for anyone still somehow maintaining this, this park IS NOT ISOLATED OR REMOTE. IT IS FULL OF LIFE. Yes, the four houses remaining were uncommonly far from their neighbours. But we're talking a matter of metres. That's not to say it's going to be packed at 3 or 4am, of course not. But the killer, leaving that house by foot, would have been extremely lucky to make a short distance without seeing anyone unless he lives a few streets away.

RSBM: it is important to keep this in mind when theorising about the area as it is a point that is often misconstrued here.

 

[fridaybaker]

Nic, any ETA on the second podcast?

 

[Hausos]

Excellent point about the park not being remote or isolated. Setagaya ward is certainly not remote or isolated.

For reference, Tokyo (city proper) has a population of nearly 14 million people. New York City (city proper) has a population of around 8.3 million. If there's people walking around in NYC at all hours of the day and night, then you betcha there's people walking around in Tokyo at all hours of the day and night. It's true that certain transportation is not available 24/7 and NYC has more things to do when compared to Tokyo during night-time (I was actually born in NYC) but I've been to Tokyo and I can say the city is active even at night (esp. in certain districts).

I currently live in Dallas right now and it has a population of 1.3 million. It's active during the night and there's definitely people around esp. during the weekends. Setagaya ward has a population of nearly 1 million. Just the ward. For comparison, Dallas has a density of 3,818/sq mi whilst Setagaya has a whopping density of 42,000/sq mi. Dallas is 385.8 square miles in size and Setagaya is a mere 22.4 sq. mi.

Another point I want to mention is that Japanese people are very, very observant. They will report anything as suspicious. They are not like New Yorkers that will literally ignore anything and everything, lol.

I am 95% sure there were people around on the day of and night of the murders. It was a Saturday; a weekend. I wouldn't discount the passerbys reporting weird sightings of suspicious people on that day & night, they may have a point (and even days prior because apparently someone living near the home noted that there was a suspicious car parked near the Miyazawa's home over several days). I also wouldn't discount the whole Mikio arguing with skaters and bike gang members. If Mikio was prone to argue with people, then perhaps he may have argued with someone who in the future would hatch a plan to murder him?

---

Below are just some random thoughts:

I wonder if the killer decided to leave on foot and keep his injured hand out of view in Mikio's pocket? (as he was wearing Mikio's jacket). The clothing he was wearing when leaving was also much more nondescript compared to his typical skater/punk type fit. I've also considered the idea a car may have picked him up, but that would mean someone else was involved/aware. For some reason, I think only the killer alone is privy to the knowledge of his sins.

Oh, and another interesting thought that just entered my mind. What if the killer had previously met Mikio in California and held a grudge against him (or his family)? Maybe that grudge carried itself all the way to Tokyo where the killer's family was temporarily stationed and he decided to act on it knowing he'll be leaving anyway and it's easier to commit a crime in Japan? However unlikely it may be, it's still a possibility I've considered.

The whole sitting around, eating food, and even napping on the coach was really chilling to me. There's a unit right next door. What if he had made too much noise during the killings? It's like he knew no one would care to come by at night. It's also very convenient he enters Rei's room initially. What if he initially entered a room that had the presence of Mikio or Yasuko or both first? What if the kids were downstairs and the parents were on the second floor? What if one of the kids was downstairs and decided to run outside screaming for help? There's like a variety of possibilities.

I'm having the feeling that the killer definitely scoped out the house beforehand or knew certain things about the family.

Lastly, my whole cram school theory only had legs if it's true that Yasuko's cram schools included high-school aged students. I was about to theorize that a disgruntled student (possibly one that's been doing poorly or maybe failed to get into a university that he wanted to get into) took out his anger on the Miyazawa family. But I'm guessing her cram schools are mostly for young children based on the subjects taught as shown by some members here (thank you!)

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Another point I want to mention is that Japanese people are very, very observant. They will report anything as suspicious. They are not like New Yorkers that will literally ignore anything and everything, lol.

RSBM: Absolutely agree. Day 1 of the podcast, Ryushi said that the Japanese are grasses. Sure enough, in Tobbu-Nikko everyone interviewed said the exact same thing: if I had seen a man with an injured hand, I would've said something. Pretty much anyone who has lived in Japan will have a story about an old neighbour getting angry at them for depositing the trash incorrectly or some such.

I am 95% sure there were people around on the day of and night of the murders. It was a Saturday; a weekend. I wouldn't discount the passerbys reporting weird sightings of suspicious people on that day & night, they may have a point (and even days prior because apparently someone living near the home noted that there was a suspicious car parked near the Miyazawa's home over several days). I also wouldn't discount the whole Mikio arguing with skaters and bike gang members. If Mikio was prone to argue with people, then perhaps he may have argued with someone who in the future would hatch a plan to murder him?

This is entirely possible, of course. However, what we know is that, of the handful of 'witnesses' on the night of the murder, all of their sightings were tracked down or eliminated for one reason or another. In the days / weeks before the murders, reports (or report, I can confirm it's more than one) about him arguing with the skaters -- the TMPD obviously took that very seriously. We know that they were tracking down skaters with ties to Soshigaya Park years down the line. And, from my interviews, they wanted one thing; to check fingerprints and then more names of other skaters. Obviously, that's led them nowhere in 24 years. So, the possibility remains that he argued with a person in a way that was never noticed or reported. That's definitely a possibility.

---

Below are just some random thoughts:

I wonder if the killer decided to leave on foot and keep his injured hand out of view in Mikio's pocket? (as he was wearing Mikio's jacket). The clothing he was wearing when leaving was also much more nondescript compared to his typical skater/punk type fit.

He took a sweater not a jacket. So, unless he had a back-up jacket somewhere, he left that house only in a sweater. He might've kept his hand in his trouser pocket, of course.

I've also considered the idea a car may have picked him up, but that would mean someone else was involved/aware. For some reason, I think only the killer alone is privy to the knowledge of his sins.

He could've driven himself, also.

Oh, and another interesting thought that just entered my mind. What if the killer had previously met Mikio in California and held a grudge against him (or his family)? Maybe that grudge carried itself all the way to Tokyo where the killer's family was temporarily stationed and he decided to act on it knowing he'll be leaving anyway and it's easier to commit a crime in Japan? However unlikely it may be, it's still a possibility I've considered.

It's definitely possible. And, I think, would be far, far harder for the TMPD to track.

The whole sitting around, eating food, and even napping on the coach was really chilling to me. There's a unit right next door. What if he had made too much noise during the killings? It's like he knew no one would care to come by at night.

This is definitely part of the paradox; why take those insane risks? (Though, to be clear, we don't know that he ever napped, only that he was on the couch). One of the houses in that complex was abandoned. Perhaps he thought it was the house next door? Or, perhaps he figured seeing as the police didn't come right away that he'd gotten away with it and, seeing as he was hurt, he would just ride it out. A lack of choice as opposed to anything else? We just can't answer this: some have raised the possibility of complicity of An's family allowing him that freedom. As well as being against TOC of this website, there's also nothing to back that up. My feeling is that he couldn't have known that noise would be made in a struggle he hadn't yet engaged in--let alone that he would be lucky enough that nobody would hear it. (Or hear it and dismiss it for whatever reason).

Lastly, my whole cram school theory only had legs if it's true that Yasuko's cram schools included high-school aged students. I was about to theorize that a disgruntled student (possibly one that's been doing poorly or maybe failed to get into a university that he wanted to get into) took out his anger on the Miyazawa family. But I'm guessing her cram schools are mostly for young children based on the subjects taught as shown by some members here (thank you!)

There is also the reverse possibility; that the killer was involved in Yasuko's cram school but from a teaching perspective. This has never been mentioned by the TMPD. My research shows that she had help in her work. What if a young man was helping with the English / piano etc? That's just speculation. Even as I mention it, I feel that the TMPD would've reviewed and eliminated such an obvious possibility.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Nic, any ETA on the second podcast?

Still working on it, amigo. I'd need funding for an ETA! Once there's funding, it's tricky to give a timeframe as there's travel to the US / Japan involved, interviews etc.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Something I had forgotten to mention previously is that where the reporter is stood in this video, it was possible to see directly to the Miyazawa’s bathroom window. It is like a raised platform in the park. I stood there myself and could see over the wall and to the window. If it were open as reported then you could see inside. However if you did so you’d be standing right under the light from a street lamp.

RSBM: it is important to keep this in mind when theorising about the area as it is a point that is often misconstrued here.

Excellent points. I would also add, in this video, you can very clearly see the surfaces. It's evident the skaters wouldn't be skating on stone, mud, pebbledash as some have suggested -- right behind the Miyazawa's house. As I say, they use the grounds opposite, across the road.

 

[Incoherent]

Excellent points. I would also add, in this video, you can very clearly see the surfaces. It's evident the skaters wouldn't be skating on stone, mud, pebbledash as some have suggested -- right behind the Miyazawa's house. As I say, they use the grounds opposite, across the road.

Yeah, there’s little chance the skateboarders were using the kid’s park to skate when there were ramps and halfpipes built especially for them just across the road. I can see them perhaps loitering around sometimes but not much else. JMO.

I often wonder the state the killer found the bathroom window in initially. Was it already ajar and he could see inside from the park and that’s why he climbed the fence, removed the screen, and entered that way? It’s never been confirmed he actually did go in that way. It’s entirely possible he attempted to but found it locked and after removing the screen jumped back down and went another way. His footprints were directly under it so we know he was there at some point.
And after all the tub was full of water when the police entered. He could have filled it himself (I guess he did do many strange things that night) but on a winter’s night I find it more likely the family were using the tub and the water was saved for Mikio who hadn’t used it yet. This is extremely common amongst Japanese families.
Did the killer think of exiting that way, opened the window from the inside, pushed the screen out, and then decided he couldn’t and left another way? And that’s why the window was found ajar?

Just one of the many million yen questions I suppose.

 

[BatataPoha]

If the reports about someone enquiring about Mikio’s address from his car dealership is true, then the kills might be a lot more nefarious and have a lot more intent behind it than what has been already speculated here.

 

[BatataPoha]

I often wonder the state the killer found the bathroom window in initially. Was it already ajar and he could see inside from the park and that’s why he climbed the fence, removed the screen, and entered that way?

I dunno if the timeline fits for the killer to enter this way and be able to strangle Rei before having his fight with Mikio on the stairs/ on top of the stairs/ near the stairs.

 

[BatataPoha]

So I have not seen it confirmed, but did the killer take the pads he used to patch himself up with him or did he leave it behind along side his neatly rolled clothes and his finely pressed handkerchiefs?

 

[FacelessPodcast]

If the reports about someone enquiring about Mikio’s address from his car dealership is true, then the kills might be a lot more nefarious and have a lot more intent behind it than what has been already speculated here.

Agreed. Though, I should add, despite this being discussed by someone I respect, I haven't seen anything to substantiate it or had a chance to confirm the possibility with LE.

I dunno if the timeline fits for the killer to enter this way and be able to strangle Rei before having his fight with Mikio on the stairs/ on top of the stairs/ near the stairs.

If the killer was somehow able to get into the bathroom window without making noise (seemingly impossible from the recreation video posted by @Incoherent), then it definitely can fit. The bathroom to the boy is a matter of a few paces. Hearing footsteps wouldn't concern Mikio downstairs, necessarily. However, if he's noisy in the ingress, then I don't see how he has time to kill Rei before clashing with Mikio. For this reason, and for many others, I think the boy's balcony is the most likely entry point. Put another way: nobody has posted a single reason to make me doubt the possibility.

So I have not seen it confirmed, but did the killer take the pads he used to patch himself up with him or did he leave it behind along side his neatly rolled clothes and his finely pressed handkerchiefs?

I don't know that for sure either way. I'm guessing he took them with him and they found the packaging. But also possible he had used some of the pads before switching out to new ones and leaving the bloodied ones behind.

 

[BatataPoha]

What if he had made too much noise during the killings? I

Either the killer accounted for the noise and knew the Anns wouldn’t interfere, didn’t care if anyone interfered or else didn’t account for the noise just like he didn’t account for the blood.

In any case, he was either too informed or too lucky.

 

[Incoherent]

Re-upload of the re-creation of the possible entry by the killer via the bathroom window:

To reiterate here, it is an exact replica down to the dimensions of the back of the house. The actor featured is also the same height and weight speculated that the killer was and wearing the same outfit (sans bucket hat). Side note: the shoes look huge to me.

Make of this what you will.

 

[BatataPoha]

Re-upload of the re-creation of the possible entry by the killer via the bathroom window:

To reiterate here, it is an exact replica down to the dimensions of the back of the house. The actor featured is also the same height and weight speculated that the killer was and wearing the same outfit (sans bucket hat). Side note: the shoes look huge to me.

Make of this what you will.

It does look difficult for a first timer, but if you had done it 2 or 3 times, I daresay it is not that difficult.

Hanging on the rails seem to generate the most noise here, and that might have been attributed to strong winds in December maybe?

 

[FacelessPodcast]

It does look difficult for a first timer, but if you had done it 2 or 3 times, I daresay it is not that difficult.

Do you mean he would've practiced his entry into the house 2-3 times? I'm assuming the killer may have watched the family but never entered the house. Possible that he did, of course, but the TMPD investigation would seem to rule out.

Hanging on the rails seem to generate the most noise here, and that might have been attributed to strong winds in December maybe?

This is perhaps pedantic but I remember reading about the weather on the day. From memory, the Beaufort scale bands showed gentle breeze/moderate breeze. Totally imaginable that Mikio would've assumed it to be a sudden strong gust of wind but at the same time, I think the sound of that fence would've been quite audible given the materials that house was built with. For Mikio not to wonder, particularly if we accept the premise that he was sensitive to disturbances around his home, it would also require the killer to have landed perfectly silently in the bathroom. And somehow leave zero fibres, hairs etc in or anywhere around the window. Again, possible. But I would disagree with the qualification as "not that difficult." Not that difficult would've been Rei's balcony. Ultimately, if the TMPD are still unsure as to ingress method, then we could talk this in circles all day.

 

[Incoherent]

it would also require the killer to have landed perfectly silently in the bathroom. And somehow leave zero fibres, hairs etc in or anywhere around the window.

RSBM: and with a potentially full tub of water he had to somersault over without slipping into or slipping on. He could have filled that himself though as said before. Still possible though.