Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000 #3

[BatataPoha]

Do you mean he would've practiced his entry into the house 2-3 times? I'm assuming the killer may have watched the family but never entered the house. Possible that he did, of course, but the TMPD investigation would seem to rule out.

I dunno about any investigation that rules out previous break in.

My point is based on pure logic. Its hard for me to fathom that our relatively new and inexperienced killer suddenly acquired two solids skills at one. One of breaking and entering without leaving evidence and other of relatively solid planning for his kills.

He also smh knows the two houses that look quite close from the outside have no internal connections, he also knows smh not to look into the garage.

Granted he could have gained all of this info by observing the Miyazawas for multiple days as well.


When I said he practiced his break ins, I meant maybe break ins in other houses. I don’t think this is a very atypical Japanese house to begin with. Not to mention that you can glean off some info about the layout of the inside of the bathroom from the outside, maybe by going on the perch or some tree climbing.

So the climb could very well have been planned ahead. To make the task more easier.

For Mikio not to wonder, particularly if we accept the premise that he was sensitive to disturbances around his home,

I dunno if Mikio has any way to see the source of the noises without leaving the house or going up to that window. I don’t see a window at his level from where he could have checked that noise out easily.

somehow leave zero fibres, hairs etc

I don’t see this actor leaving a lot of stuff behind, and he doesn’t even have a hat, and presumably has less upper body strength than the killer.

 

[BatataPoha]

Not that difficult would've been Rei's balcony. Ultimately, if the TMPD are still unsure as to ingress method, then we could talk this in circles all day.

Rei’s balcony has other set of challenges though.

1) It would require the Miyazawas to have that window open, as per routine or by total accident.

2) The killer would have to be aware that the open balcony might be a possibility.

3) He goes inside, does his kills and then closes the balcony window?

Because if he had left the balcony open, then I think the TMPD might have reported it as open. Not to mention the fact that it would be very obvious that an open balcony would rather be the entry point than an exit point, as it little sense to go out by the balcony and not the front door.

4) Then he does the shenanigans in the bathroom, and leaves either via the bathroom window or the front door.

All of this need to work out for the balcony to be the mode of entry. Definitely possible which is why I think the dispute for the investigators.

 

[Cryptic]

It was said that Mikio did have some run-ins with the skaters from the skate park across the road, but this graffiti to me shows disrespect towards the Miyazawas as it’s been done on and to their property. I should say, I don’t really know if the family did own the strip of land beside their house or not but either way it was done very close to their front door.

Just out of curiosity....

How much of a social faux pas is excess noise in Japan? And likewise, in general terms, what constitutes excess noise? And... how often do Japanese people confront others over violations of social norms or law?

For example, in my very urban US city, it takes a relatively large amount of noise to be considered excess. Likewise, there is a social norm that public areas are truly public. A homeowner attempting to impose on others what can, or cannot be done in a public area is not going to go well.

But.... my family lived once in urban Belgium. Shortly after settling in, my father fires up a "petite" lawn mower on a tranquil Sunday around noon. The smell of cut grass fills the air.... Then, a normally passive Belgian neighbor goes livid, enters the yard and starts yelling.

Fortunately, my mother spoke fully fluent French and the area was French speaking. It turned out that excess noise on Sunday was very broadly defined in urban areas. Using power lawn lawn equipment on Sunday was totally forbidden by law and by social norm. She later found out that enforcement by yelling type confrontations was, well, not unheard of.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Rei’s balcony has other set of challenges though.

1) It would require the Miyazawas to have that window open, as per routine or by total accident.

Same goes for the bathroom window. I personally discount the front door. There are no other options.

2) The killer would have to be aware that the open balcony might be a possibility.

If we accept the premise he had been watching them, I don't see that as a challenge per se. Moreover, we know that he paced beneath the bathroom window. Why couldn't he simply have tried. He tries the bathroom window first, then goes to Rei's. Either/both is possible.

3) He goes inside, does his kills and then closes the balcony window?

Because if he had left the balcony open, then I think the TMPD might have reported it as open. Not to mention the fact that it would be very obvious that an open balcony would rather be the entry point than an exit point, as it little sense to go out by the balcony and not the front door.

As with the front door, we don't know if it was open or closed when LE arrives. But at any rate, what stops him from closing the balcony window/door?

4) Then he does the shenanigans in the bathroom, and leaves either via the bathroom window or the front door.

I don't see this as a particularly complex set of circumstances but as you say, there is a reason why the TMPD are still unsure as to the entry point, despite all their experiments. What I will say is that the front door had no blood on it / beneath it / around it. So, the killer figured out a way to clean his shoes right next to Mikio's body to walk the paces through that hall to the door. We also know that the TMPD were dusting the family car for prints. So clearly, it's beyond debate whether or not they considered him using that car almost certainly to climb on or touch in some fashion. That the TMPD have not said anything about the balcony doesn't mean much, considering their limited communication across 24 years.

All of this need to work out for the balcony to be the mode of entry. Definitely possible which is why I think the dispute for the investigators.

Absolutely.

I dunno about any investigation that rules out previous break in.

My point is based on pure logic. Its hard for me to fathom that our relatively new and inexperienced killer suddenly acquired two solids skills at one. One of breaking and entering without leaving evidence and other of relatively solid planning for his kills.

My point is that is that there is no complaint of a break-in prior to the murders. Either here, or in the area. Is it possible he was entering the Miyazawa house without leaving any trace? Yes, sure. What are we basing that on--that it's hard to fathom that he would try to climb through a window without previous break-in experience? I don't know, at some point it would have to be the first time.

He also smh knows the two houses that look quite close from the outside have no internal connections,

We don't actually know that, technically-speaking. But yes, you can see this as a self-evident truth when you are in the location.

I dunno if Mikio has any way to see the source of the noises without leaving the house or going up to that window. I don’t see a window at his level from where he could have checked that noise out easily.

He can simply walk outside and see for himself. He's done this before according to reports. From the front door to the rear of the house is a matter of a few paces. Or, he could've gone upstairs and looked out the window.

I don’t see this actor leaving a lot of stuff behind, and he doesn’t even have a hat, and presumably has less upper body strength than the killer.

Well, you would be unlikely to catch fibres being left with the naked eye from that video. But my own bucket hat would off fall my head when upside down. And we know the killer did leave his hairs behind throughout the house. But, if we accept the premise that the bathroom window is the most logical entry point, then what would be so puzzling for the TMPD?

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Just out of curiosity....

How much of a social faux pas is excess noise in Japan? And likewise, in general terms, what constitutes excess noise? And... how often do Japanese people confront others over violations of social norms or law?

It's a good question. This answer is always going to be anecdotal but; confrontation in small forms is totally normal. Passive aggressive or otherwise. Having the trash you deposited incorrectly left back on your doorstep is a common experience for newbies starting their lives in Japan, for example. Far more likely your misbehaviour is simply reported to the building manager etc. But it's a rare occasion to see an angry neighbour effing and jeffing on the doorstep because you kept your music too loud. That said, it's 127 million people and it's not a monolith. There is a famous case of a woman who went to jail for being a spectacularly bad neighbour (even songs were written about it).

For example, in my very urban US city, it takes a relatively large amount of noise to be considered excess.

I would say that in Japan this is going to be lower. Way lower. I think there is an accepted decibel amount by law.

Likewise, there is a social norm that public areas are truly public. A homeowner attempting to impose on others what can, or cannot be done in a public area- much less in another privately owned property might not go well.

I think this is a big difference. The example was raised by the skaters I interviewed. One related the story of Mikio coming out and telling them that he had kids and could they keep it down (he said Mikio was eminently reasonable and apologetic for asking this). The skaters immediately apologised and said they were leaving anyhow. (This group were all eliminated by the TMPD btw). I've seen an old man ask for quiet in a museum and a class-load of children fall quiet. Again, this is all anecdotal. But I think asking someone to keep the noise down is less likely to be met with a "f*ck you, pal" then -say- in Downtown Los Angeles.

But.... my family lived once in urban Belgium. Shortly after settling in, my father fires up a small lawn mower on a tranquil Sunday around noon. The smell of cut grass fills the air.... Then, a normally passive Belgian neighbor goes livid, enters the yard and starts yelling.

Fortunately, my mother spoke fluent French and the area was French speaking. It turned out that excess noise on Sunday was very broadly defined. Using power lawn lawn equipment on Sunday was totally forbidden by law and by social norm. She later found out that enforcement by yelling type confrontations was, well, not unheard of.

I don't think there's ever going to be a definitively answer here, those users that live in Japan can chime in. I can only say that the reports of Mikio going ballistic are unconfirmed. And, even if he did, the idea that a man killed them all as punishment for such an outburst has its problems. JMO.

 

[BatataPoha]

Same goes for the bathroom window

I think there are more conceivable scenarios for a bathroom window to be open than the balcony of the room where your small child is sleeping open.

Off the top of my head it could be for a hot bath to avoid fogging or just for general ventilation sake to avoid a swampy feeling

Its also far more easier to ascertain whether the bathroom window is open or not, as Incoherent has mentioned.

If we accept the premise he had been watching them, I don't see that as a challenge per se. Moreover, we know that he paced beneath the bathroom window. Why couldn't he simply have tried. He tries the bathroom window first, then goes to Rei's. Either/both is possible

The problem with this is there would be mud on the balcony, in the house all throughout. Unless he cleans it off. He only has his hankies so its either than, some other clothing on him or some stuff on the grounds to wipe off the mud.

Even that might not be 100% efficient from a forensic perspective.

Its possible that this is indeed the case, but it has not been disclosed by the PD, but as we have no info, its a valid argument against it, unless proved otherwise.

As with the front door, we don't know if it was open or closed when LE arrives. But at any rate, what stops him from closing the balcony window/door?

So its not a problem in and of itself. The problem arises with what he does with the bathroom next. If supposedly he came via the balcony, he has no reason to shut the door, unless he wants to obfuscate his mode of entry.

But then he does the thing with the window screen, implying that to be either the mode of entry or the exit, which kinda seems excessive and a bit redundant, since he has already taken care of his mode of entry.

That would make sense only if he chose to exit via the bathroom window, which might explain the muddy print below the wind but would imply that while the killer is ok obfuscating his mode of entry, he is ok to leave behind clearly his mode of exit.

Now this is possible if he was pressed for time, although we don’t have any evidence for or against it.

My point is that is that there is no complaint of a break-in prior to the murders. Either here, or in the area. Is it possible he was entering the Miyazawa house without leaving any trace? Yes, sure. What are we basing that on--that it's hard to fathom that he would try to climb through a window without previous break-in experience? I don't know, at some point it would have to be the first time.

There are no direct complaints yes. But we do have certain indicators that something was indeed bothering the Miyazawas. They also for some reason believed that this was related to the skaters.

It might not be something as egregious as breaking in, but something less sinister like peeping, peering or something, which would unnerve a family but might not result in a police complaint.

Anyways, the gist of it is this. The killer might be more experienced in breaking in and entering, not just particularly for the Miyazawa house, although he is still a very inexperienced killer and has never been caught or convicted of anything before or after this.

We don't actually know that, technically-speaking

Yup, but I think we can infer that.

This inexperienced killer doesn’t account for blood, he infact is not even very confident of taking on an injured woman and child without a knife.

Does this psychologically speak of someone who is full of confidence with regards to his kill? Or is it someone sharp, who is using every advantage that he has in his book to maximise his success rate?

I think its the latter, and so if you extrapolate that thought process. Why would he randomly attack a house that from the outside, looks like it might be two houses joined together? Rather than a single isolated house.

How does he know not to go in the garage to look for stuff ( if he was even looking for anything)? How does he know there is no one in there, or a tunnel that connects to the other house?

This might seem a bit silly in hindsight, but I don’t think the killer would have gone into the houe without having used every advantage in his book, which would include some basic info about the house layout.

But, if we accept the premise that the bathroom window is the most logical entry point, then what would be so puzzling for the TMPD?

I am guessing the TMPD are stickler for details, and because they have no physical evidence, they are hesitant to commit to anything.
Just my take on it, you obviously have more feel for it.

As for the lack of physical evidence, you are right, and I have no knowledge about what is possible or not possible in this regard. So yes, thats definitely a problem in this theory.

 

[Cryptic]

@FacelessPodcast

Thanks for the detailed response. I am thinking the totality could detract from, but by no means eliminate, an unhinged skater motive- or as @SteveL raised the possibility of, an unhinged "Poseur" motive. (Wow, the collective knowledge on this forum is incredibly vast. How many people know that the shoes of skaters wear differently?)

Though there is always the possibility of an unhinged skater, the victim did not "pour gasoline" on a fire. Rather, his conduct was entirely in social norms- and thus less likely invoke an extreme response:

- Excess noise is more broadly defined in Japan. Polite enforcement of social norms by older people is common in Japan. Those receiving the enforcement are inclined to accept and obey- at least ostensibly, and likely in many cases, in spirit as well.

- Likewise, there is no evidence of a skater group responding "LA style" with a string of defiant profanities or threats. Rather, one skater group complied quickly. Though compliance by other groups may of been more reluctant, there is no apparent "LA" response.

In the end, there seems to be a lower possibility for a severe confrontation, followed by a severe 'diss, and then by an extreme response.

 

[BatataPoha]

@FacelessPodcast

Thanks for the detailed response. I am thinking the totality could detract from, but by no means eliminate, an unhinged skater motive- or as @SteveL raised the possibility of, an unhinged "Poseur" motive. (Wow, the collective knowledge on this forum is incredibly vast. How many people know that the shoes of skaters wear differently?)

Though there is always the possibility of an unhinged skater, the victim did not "pour gasoline" on a fire. Rather, his conduct was entirely in social norms- and thus less likely invoke an extreme response:

- Excess noise is more broadly defined in Japan. Polite enforcement of social norms by older people is common in Japan. Those receiving the enforcement are inclined to accept and obey- at least ostensibly, and likely in many cases, in spirit as well.

- Likewise, there is no evidence of a skater group responding "LA style" with a string of defiant profanities or threats. Rather, one skater group complied quickly. Though compliance by other groups may of been more reluctant, there is no record of anyone, or any group going "LA".

In the end, there seems to be a lower possibility for a severe confrontation, followed by a severe 'diss, and then by an extreme response.

Continuing this just for theoretical purposes, are there female skaters in this skater group that we know of?

 

[Cryptic]

Continuing this just for theoretical purposes, are there female skaters in this skater group that we know of?

I dont know. Its a good question for @FacelessPodcast.

Speaking of the subject though, I would have thought that skaters would be a very co-ed bunch. Though very far from Japan, the hard core / skilled group at out skate park does not seem to have any female members. Female members in the more casual groups using the park seem to be uncommon, but not unheard of.

I dont know about Japan though....

 

[BatataPoha]

I dont know. Its a good question for @FacelessPodcast.

Speaking of the subject though, I would have thought that skaters would be a very co-ed group. But... the hard core / skilled group at out skate park does not seem to have any female members. Female members in the more casual groups seem to be uncommon, but not unheard of.

I dont know about Japan though....

I got inspired from the poseur theory and just changed the “trying to join/avenge random skater group who might have secretly not liked the Miyazawas” to “trying to join/ avenge random skater girl who might have secretly not liked the Miyazawas”.

Admittedly in my head, my improvement fixes some of the obvious gaps in the poseur theory for random skating gang.

 

[Charlot123]

About the entry. I can’t shed the feeling that the intruder knew both parts of the house, given that Yasuko used to run her cram school in the other part of the house, so any visitor to the school, even a parent, could be aware of the layout.

Is that possible that An’s side of the house had a more convenient entry point, such as a patio? I have read that because of high safety index in Japan, people may leave doors unlocked. Then, go uprtairs to one of the windows, get out or move balcony-to-balcony? If there was a ledge in the house, he could simply get out of the window, walk on the ledge and get inside via the balcony, without disturbing people who were asleep or watching TV. Looking at Miyazawas’ house, it seems to have ledges, imho.

Why I think it is possible to do so without bothering people inside? First, indeed, people have different level of hearing. I used to know several people in my life with 75% hearing loss on both ears, and you’d never tell. Besides, we tend to explain unusual sounds by something easily explainable (“swallows under the roof”, or “raindrops”.) Maybe in the US people are more mindful of potential home invasions. But in Japan, with such a low index of crime, wouldn’t people tend to look for more plausible explanations to the unusual? I am positive that when Mikio heard the noise, he didn’t think of “oh, a bosozoku broke in to kill us”, but maybe, “Rei is having a noghtmare”, or something like it.

Likewise, the Japanese people might be attentive, but human mind remembers the “unusual”. Like someone saw a man dressed like the killer in the vicinity and paid attention to him because he was dressed lightly for the weather. The taxicab driver remembered the three passengers because they didn’t say a word. As I am typing it, I am sitting in a food court and the only people standing out are the teo guys next table playing backgammon. The reason the security man approached them was because one of them stood on a chair to film and he was concerned that the guy would fall. But half an hour ago, I saw a guy dressed in dark blue uniform, probably, service, who slid by so quietly that of us all, only I noticed him. Even so, I would not be able to describe him.

 

[Linear13]

This may have been asked and answered already and I may have missed it but since LE does have the perps DNA have they mentioned if they have tried using one of the genetic genealogy DNA services like GEDmatch, 23andme or Ancestry. Especially if the perp is considered a non Japanese and perhaps an American then one of these many services (one posts here on websleuths but I forget the name off the top of my head) would probably have historical DNA. I am unaware if Japan and its citizens are as open to using the services as we in the US are. This would definitely narrow down the field and let LE know whether they were looking for a citizen or a non-citizen. MOO.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

This may have been asked and answered already and I may have missed it but since LE does have the perps DNA have they mentioned if they have tried using one of the genetic genealogy DNA services like GEDmatch, 23andme or Ancestry. Especially if the perp is considered a non Japanese and perhaps an American then one of these many services (one posts here on websleuths but I forget the name off the top of my head) would probably have historical DNA. I am unaware if Japan and its citizens are as open to using the services as we in the US are. This would definitely narrow down the field and let LE know whether they were looking for a citizen or a non-citizen. MOO.

Welcome @Linear13. This has been covered extensively throughout the last 2+ years in this thread, yeah.

In short, if the killer isn’t already on the DNA offender database, that’s where Japanese LE have to drop it given privacy laws and a lack of legal framework for novel DNA investigations. Put another way, what you’re describing is not possible otherwise it would’ve been done long ago. There is some possible hope for change in the future though given local lawmakers and their changing stances…

 

[SteveL]

Continuing this just for theoretical purposes, are there female skaters in this skater group that we know of?

This is an AWESOME question. "Skater Chicks" (this is a term the females actually liked) are HIGHLY respected, esteemed, admired, adored, etc. Even by non skaters. And ESPECIALLY by "poseurs" If Mikio confronted a group with a skater chick, it would definitely build up rage. And I could easily see someone trying to "defend her honor" or impress.

 

[SteveL]

I dont know. Its a good question for @FacelessPodcast.

Speaking of the subject though, I would have thought that skaters would be a very co-ed bunch. Though very far from Japan, the hard core / skilled group at out skate park does not seem to have any female members. Female members in the more casual groups using the park seem to be uncommon, but not unheard of.

I dont know about Japan though....

I'm going to respectfully disagree. I skated for about 10 years and females are "rare." Definitely not a coed bunch. And because of their scarcity, they're highly desirable, popular, admired, etc..

As Nic laid out in Faceless, TMPD exhaustively explored the skater angle. So, I DO NOT think the killer was a "skater." But, I think he was on the fringes, a wannabe, etc.. And I wonder if his rage may have come from that place.

And I respect Nics adamant stance that the killer wasn't a bosozoku. I AGREE. HOWEVER, with New Years Eve being such a significant date for that group, I wonder if that means anything? Was the killer trying to impress, role play, etc. with bosozoku?

To me, the killer feels like an outsider, loser, bullied?, baby brother, etc. And being constantly on the move with a military family would make those characteristics further amplified. I'm starting to lean towards that being his "motive"?

 

[fridaybaker]

Can’t read a lot on this thread right now so apologies in advance if this has already been covered. We can make a reasonable assumption that the balcony door was found closed by LE because it’s not mentioned as being open, and because TMPD do not point it out as the most likely entry point.
But would the killer take the time to close it after he enters? I think he would, as it faces the street and any screaming would be easily heard if open. And he came to kill.
This doesn’t answer why he doesn’t seem to be very concerned about screaming being heard through the walls by the other family but, then again, he obviously didn’t need to be concerned about that as they didn’t hear any screaming. Oddly.
My point, though: I find it quite reasonable to think the killer would have taken the extra second or two required to close the balcony door behind him.

 

[Incoherent]

Re: excess noise as a social faux pas in Japan, Nic is on the money with his answer. The tolerance for it is extremely low here, but as a generally non-confrontational society the police are simply called over such matters. There is an understanding amongst people here of what is and isn’t acceptable, especially in places like Tokyo where we’re all crammed in, and 99% of people adhere to that. Of course there is always going to be the exception to it. But as I said the police usually get called to deal with it. Mikio asking the skaters to keep it down is still within the bounds of what is acceptable but in all likelihood they would have just apologised to him and moved on as has been said because they are the ones in the wrong here and they would know it.

Re: the balcony as a possible entry point. I’ve spoken about it in the past threads before but something to remember here is that the balcony has doors not windows. They are sliding doors that will have a simple lock mechanism on the inside that doesn’t require a key. The balcony would have been used for laundry purposes, and if you look at pictures of it you can still see a laundry pole leaning to the side to this very day.
I am guilty of sometimes forgetting to lock my balcony when I take my laundry in from it, so as for whether the doors were left ajar or not I highly doubt it… however, if they were left unlocked is a different story here.
It is all speculation at this point but it is possible the doors could have been used during the day and just not locked again at night.

About if there were muddy footprints in the house at all I remember reading there were actually. This was from a source Monazite’s blog I believe so I would need to go back to find it again and his blog is a bit of a mess.

JMO but I think for many reasons the front door has zero chance of being the entry point, but I don’t discount it being an exit. That leaves the balcony and the bathroom window. He had to have used one of them.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

@FacelessPodcast

Thanks for the detailed response. I am thinking the totality could detract from, but by no means eliminate, an unhinged skater motive- or as @SteveL raised the possibility of, an unhinged "Poseur" motive. (Wow, the collective knowledge on this forum is incredibly vast. How many people know that the shoes of skaters wear differently?)

Though there is always the possibility of an unhinged skater, the victim did not "pour gasoline" on a fire.

Absolutely, the angry skater theory exists. The problem with it is that I know personally how hard the TMPD leant into this and got nothing. I have interviewed skaters who gave first-hand insight into those interrogations. Similar to the Korean angle, the tone I inferred was: "well, we don't *think* this is the path but we have to walk it anyway."

I liken it to the football pitch in London that used to be my old stomping ground. We went there all the time. Some people were in the social circle, others were on the periphery. But I knew every single face. Had the police come to me, even years later, asking about those characters, I would have opinions / things to say. In this example, we're relying on those skaters in Soshigaya Park not being able to tell them anything about the murderer. So, one of three:

1) Either the killer observed, from a distance, that there were skaters nearby and figured, given the societal dim view of that group, that they would make a convenient 4 for police to make 2+2 from. Or, maybe he was even present when Mikio asked to keep the noise down and he concocted a framing plan right there.

2) The killer tried to integrate into that skateboarding group without success and was so nondescript that 10, 20, 30, or even 40 people -- not one of them can recall such a figure. This would mean the killer was indeed a skater but one that they all missed, along with all the videos / magazines / competitions / meet-ups. One that was also missed, therefore, by 280,000 men and women of the TMPD.

3) The skaters are collectively lying / covering for someone who murdered an entire family because... ACAB? Or simply the fraternity of the skateboard?

Right off the bat, I discard 3. While 2 probably is *possible*, it doesn't feel likely on any level. That leaves 1. I can't rule it out though, to me, feels like Batman villain-levels of planning. There are problems with it, too. If he did really want to tell the TMPD he was a skater, why not leave a skateboard? Skate magazine? Skate shoes? (Slazenger ARE NOT skating shoes, they are tennis/squash shoes, I spoke with Slazenger themselves). For those maintaining that his outfit that night was concordant with the skateboarding fashion of the day in Tokyo 24 years ago, why is it that when I showed skaters in that Soshigaya group the photo of the mannequin, every single one -unprompted- laughed and said they never would've worn anything like that? They all zero'd in on the shoes saying 'those aren't skate shoes.'

Which brings me to a fourth possibility: he simply was not a skater but, given the proximity of the skatepark, the TMPD put two and two together, and made five. Nobody in this thread has given a solid argument of why the same interrogation could not have been levied on local tennis players? Or fishermen given his hat? Or Frenchmen given his aftershave? Or Scots, given his scarf design?

In short, and to repeat, I don't discount a skater could be the killer. Clearly, the TMPD do not discount it either. But I'm yet to see anything solidly pointing to the sport itself. JMO.

Rather, his conduct was entirely in social norms- and thus less likely invoke an extreme response:

- Excess noise is more broadly defined in Japan. Polite enforcement of social norms by older people is common in Japan. Those receiving the enforcement are inclined to accept and obey- at least ostensibly, and likely in many cases, in spirit as well.

- Likewise, there is no evidence of a skater group responding "LA style" with a string of defiant profanities or threats. Rather, one skater group complied quickly. Though compliance by other groups may of been more reluctant, there is no apparent "LA" response.

In the end, there seems to be a lower possibility for a severe confrontation, followed by a severe 'diss, and then by an extreme response.

I would agree with all of this, pretty much. We have a few accounts of the Mikio 'confrontation' from skaters who say they remember 'that day', Mikio asking them to keep it down, them immediately complying. I myself recorded these accounts. We also know the TMPD interrogated these men and fingerprinted them. Perhaps they're lying about the Mikio story but they're innocent of the crime and there doesn't seem to be any motive to lie on this. We also have the TMPD account given to me. In essence: we have investigated skateboarders at length. We learned nothing.

I don't reject the idea of Mikio saying the wrong thing to the wrong person and this triggering the murders later on. Nor can I reject the premise of this person being a skateboarder. I only say that, given the above, the latter seems unlikely.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

I dont know. Its a good question for @FacelessPodcast.

RSBM: I only interviewed male skateboarders from that Soshigaya crew. From what I know, the core group were all young men. Though many had girlfriends who may well have been present. These people were often connected to the skate shops in the nearby area which I know the TMPD checked off their list.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

About the entry. I can’t shed the feeling that the intruder knew both parts of the house, given that Yasuko used to run her cram school in the other part of the house, so any visitor to the school, even a parent, could be aware of the layout.

If he had visited the house, he would know them in some capacity and we go back to one of the central problems; if he knows them, they know him. And if they know him, why can't the TMPD find him? Possible that he picked up a young sibling from Yasuko's Kumon school, for example. But again, we know how hard the TMPD looked into her business. It's not complicated for them to start going through her client list and seeing that, from Client 1, the teenage brother has a bandage on his hand.

Is that possible that An’s side of the house had a more convenient entry point, such as a patio? I have read that because of high safety index in Japan, people may leave doors unlocked. Then, go uprtairs to one of the windows, get out or move balcony-to-balcony?

The Irie balcony to the Miyazawa one would basically involve a simple jump, not hugely challenging. However, it's higher than the latter one so makes no sense to use if the target is the Miyazawa home. I can't say it with any certainty but I would be comfortable rejecting the premise that the killer used the Irie balcony as a means to get into the Miyazawa house, let alone entering the home of the former, in order to access the latter. I also must stress how obvious it is that they are two separate homes when you're standing outside. Of course, you don't know that they haven't knocked a boundary wall down inside to make one big house. But there are two front doors, two separate mailboxes, two separate names outside the front doors etc.

Maybe in the US people are more mindful of potential home invasions. But in Japan, with such a low index of crime, wouldn’t people tend to look for more plausible explanations to the unusual? I am positive that when Mikio heard the noise, he didn’t think of “oh, a bosozoku broke in to kill us”, but maybe, “Rei is having a noghtmare”, or something like it.

I don't think anybody anywhere would assume they're about to being the imminent victim of a home invasion murder. My point is that, from the noises in that reconstruction video, given that Mikio was the only one awake (or at least not in bed) and that he was working at the time, given that we know it sounds likely he was prone to reacting to loud noises, I find the killer through the bathroom window harder to accept than via the balcony. If Rei is having a nightmare, how is he rattling the metal fence outside the house etc?

And just to add a couple more images:


This one shows you the house opposite still standing, as well as how cars would have moved down their little street. And this one, though not from the year 2000, shows you how well-lit the area is behind the house at night: