Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000 #3

[BatataPoha]

Do you mean he would've practiced his entry into the house 2-3 times? I'm assuming the killer may have watched the family but never entered the house. Possible that he did, of course, but the TMPD investigation would seem to rule out.

I dunno about any investigation that rules out previous break in.

My point is based on pure logic. Its hard for me to fathom that our relatively new and inexperienced killer suddenly acquired two solids skills at one. One of breaking and entering without leaving evidence and other of relatively solid planning for his kills.

He also smh knows the two houses that look quite close from the outside have no internal connections, he also knows smh not to look into the garage.

Granted he could have gained all of this info by observing the Miyazawas for multiple days as well.


When I said he practiced his break ins, I meant maybe break ins in other houses. I don’t think this is a very atypical Japanese house to begin with. Not to mention that you can glean off some info about the layout of the inside of the bathroom from the outside, maybe by going on the perch or some tree climbing.

So the climb could very well have been planned ahead. To make the task more easier.

For Mikio not to wonder, particularly if we accept the premise that he was sensitive to disturbances around his home,

I dunno if Mikio has any way to see the source of the noises without leaving the house or going up to that window. I don’t see a window at his level from where he could have checked that noise out easily.

somehow leave zero fibres, hairs etc

I don’t see this actor leaving a lot of stuff behind, and he doesn’t even have a hat, and presumably has less upper body strength than the killer.

 

[BatataPoha]

Not that difficult would've been Rei's balcony. Ultimately, if the TMPD are still unsure as to ingress method, then we could talk this in circles all day.

Rei’s balcony has other set of challenges though.

1) It would require the Miyazawas to have that window open, as per routine or by total accident.

2) The killer would have to be aware that the open balcony might be a possibility.

3) He goes inside, does his kills and then closes the balcony window?

Because if he had left the balcony open, then I think the TMPD might have reported it as open. Not to mention the fact that it would be very obvious that an open balcony would rather be the entry point than an exit point, as it little sense to go out by the balcony and not the front door.

4) Then he does the shenanigans in the bathroom, and leaves either via the bathroom window or the front door.

All of this need to work out for the balcony to be the mode of entry. Definitely possible which is why I think the dispute for the investigators.

 

[Cryptic]

It was said that Mikio did have some run-ins with the skaters from the skate park across the road, but this graffiti to me shows disrespect towards the Miyazawas as it’s been done on and to their property. I should say, I don’t really know if the family did own the strip of land beside their house or not but either way it was done very close to their front door.

Just out of curiosity....

How much of a social faux pas is excess noise in Japan? And likewise, in general terms, what constitutes excess noise? And... how often do Japanese people confront others over violations of social norms or law?

For example, in my very urban US city, it takes a relatively large amount of noise to be considered excess. Likewise, there is a social norm that public areas are truly public. A homeowner attempting to impose on others what can, or cannot be done in a public area is not going to go well.

But.... my family lived once in urban Belgium. Shortly after settling in, my father fires up a "petite" lawn mower on a tranquil Sunday around noon. The smell of cut grass fills the air.... Then, a normally passive Belgian neighbor goes livid, enters the yard and starts yelling.

Fortunately, my mother spoke fully fluent French and the area was French speaking. It turned out that excess noise on Sunday was very broadly defined in urban areas. Using power lawn lawn equipment on Sunday was totally forbidden by law and by social norm. She later found out that enforcement by yelling type confrontations was, well, not unheard of.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Rei’s balcony has other set of challenges though.

1) It would require the Miyazawas to have that window open, as per routine or by total accident.

Same goes for the bathroom window. I personally discount the front door. There are no other options.

2) The killer would have to be aware that the open balcony might be a possibility.

If we accept the premise he had been watching them, I don't see that as a challenge per se. Moreover, we know that he paced beneath the bathroom window. Why couldn't he simply have tried. He tries the bathroom window first, then goes to Rei's. Either/both is possible.

3) He goes inside, does his kills and then closes the balcony window?

Because if he had left the balcony open, then I think the TMPD might have reported it as open. Not to mention the fact that it would be very obvious that an open balcony would rather be the entry point than an exit point, as it little sense to go out by the balcony and not the front door.

As with the front door, we don't know if it was open or closed when LE arrives. But at any rate, what stops him from closing the balcony window/door?

4) Then he does the shenanigans in the bathroom, and leaves either via the bathroom window or the front door.

I don't see this as a particularly complex set of circumstances but as you say, there is a reason why the TMPD are still unsure as to the entry point, despite all their experiments. What I will say is that the front door had no blood on it / beneath it / around it. So, the killer figured out a way to clean his shoes right next to Mikio's body to walk the paces through that hall to the door. We also know that the TMPD were dusting the family car for prints. So clearly, it's beyond debate whether or not they considered him using that car almost certainly to climb on or touch in some fashion. That the TMPD have not said anything about the balcony doesn't mean much, considering their limited communication across 24 years.

All of this need to work out for the balcony to be the mode of entry. Definitely possible which is why I think the dispute for the investigators.

Absolutely.

I dunno about any investigation that rules out previous break in.

My point is based on pure logic. Its hard for me to fathom that our relatively new and inexperienced killer suddenly acquired two solids skills at one. One of breaking and entering without leaving evidence and other of relatively solid planning for his kills.

My point is that is that there is no complaint of a break-in prior to the murders. Either here, or in the area. Is it possible he was entering the Miyazawa house without leaving any trace? Yes, sure. What are we basing that on--that it's hard to fathom that he would try to climb through a window without previous break-in experience? I don't know, at some point it would have to be the first time.

He also smh knows the two houses that look quite close from the outside have no internal connections,

We don't actually know that, technically-speaking. But yes, you can see this as a self-evident truth when you are in the location.

I dunno if Mikio has any way to see the source of the noises without leaving the house or going up to that window. I don’t see a window at his level from where he could have checked that noise out easily.

He can simply walk outside and see for himself. He's done this before according to reports. From the front door to the rear of the house is a matter of a few paces. Or, he could've gone upstairs and looked out the window.

I don’t see this actor leaving a lot of stuff behind, and he doesn’t even have a hat, and presumably has less upper body strength than the killer.

Well, you would be unlikely to catch fibres being left with the naked eye from that video. But my own bucket hat would off fall my head when upside down. And we know the killer did leave his hairs behind throughout the house. But, if we accept the premise that the bathroom window is the most logical entry point, then what would be so puzzling for the TMPD?

 

[FacelessPodcast]

Just out of curiosity....

How much of a social faux pas is excess noise in Japan? And likewise, in general terms, what constitutes excess noise? And... how often do Japanese people confront others over violations of social norms or law?

It's a good question. This answer is always going to be anecdotal but; confrontation in small forms is totally normal. Passive aggressive or otherwise. Having the trash you deposited incorrectly left back on your doorstep is a common experience for newbies starting their lives in Japan, for example. Far more likely your misbehaviour is simply reported to the building manager etc. But it's a rare occasion to see an angry neighbour effing and jeffing on the doorstep because you kept your music too loud. That said, it's 127 million people and it's not a monolith. There is a famous case of a woman who went to jail for being a spectacularly bad neighbour (even songs were written about it).

For example, in my very urban US city, it takes a relatively large amount of noise to be considered excess.

I would say that in Japan this is going to be lower. Way lower. I think there is an accepted decibel amount by law.

Likewise, there is a social norm that public areas are truly public. A homeowner attempting to impose on others what can, or cannot be done in a public area- much less in another privately owned property might not go well.

I think this is a big difference. The example was raised by the skaters I interviewed. One related the story of Mikio coming out and telling them that he had kids and could they keep it down (he said Mikio was eminently reasonable and apologetic for asking this). The skaters immediately apologised and said they were leaving anyhow. (This group were all eliminated by the TMPD btw). I've seen an old man ask for quiet in a museum and a class-load of children fall quiet. Again, this is all anecdotal. But I think asking someone to keep the noise down is less likely to be met with a "f*ck you, pal" then -say- in Downtown Los Angeles.

But.... my family lived once in urban Belgium. Shortly after settling in, my father fires up a small lawn mower on a tranquil Sunday around noon. The smell of cut grass fills the air.... Then, a normally passive Belgian neighbor goes livid, enters the yard and starts yelling.

Fortunately, my mother spoke fluent French and the area was French speaking. It turned out that excess noise on Sunday was very broadly defined. Using power lawn lawn equipment on Sunday was totally forbidden by law and by social norm. She later found out that enforcement by yelling type confrontations was, well, not unheard of.

I don't think there's ever going to be a definitively answer here, those users that live in Japan can chime in. I can only say that the reports of Mikio going ballistic are unconfirmed. And, even if he did, the idea that a man killed them all as punishment for such an outburst has its problems. JMO.

 

[BatataPoha]

Same goes for the bathroom window

I think there are more conceivable scenarios for a bathroom window to be open than the balcony of the room where your small child is sleeping open.

Off the top of my head it could be for a hot bath to avoid fogging or just for general ventilation sake to avoid a swampy feeling

Its also far more easier to ascertain whether the bathroom window is open or not, as Incoherent has mentioned.

If we accept the premise he had been watching them, I don't see that as a challenge per se. Moreover, we know that he paced beneath the bathroom window. Why couldn't he simply have tried. He tries the bathroom window first, then goes to Rei's. Either/both is possible

The problem with this is there would be mud on the balcony, in the house all throughout. Unless he cleans it off. He only has his hankies so its either than, some other clothing on him or some stuff on the grounds to wipe off the mud.

Even that might not be 100% efficient from a forensic perspective.

Its possible that this is indeed the case, but it has not been disclosed by the PD, but as we have no info, its a valid argument against it, unless proved otherwise.

As with the front door, we don't know if it was open or closed when LE arrives. But at any rate, what stops him from closing the balcony window/door?

So its not a problem in and of itself. The problem arises with what he does with the bathroom next. If supposedly he came via the balcony, he has no reason to shut the door, unless he wants to obfuscate his mode of entry.

But then he does the thing with the window screen, implying that to be either the mode of entry or the exit, which kinda seems excessive and a bit redundant, since he has already taken care of his mode of entry.

That would make sense only if he chose to exit via the bathroom window, which might explain the muddy print below the wind but would imply that while the killer is ok obfuscating his mode of entry, he is ok to leave behind clearly his mode of exit.

Now this is possible if he was pressed for time, although we don’t have any evidence for or against it.

My point is that is that there is no complaint of a break-in prior to the murders. Either here, or in the area. Is it possible he was entering the Miyazawa house without leaving any trace? Yes, sure. What are we basing that on--that it's hard to fathom that he would try to climb through a window without previous break-in experience? I don't know, at some point it would have to be the first time.

There are no direct complaints yes. But we do have certain indicators that something was indeed bothering the Miyazawas. They also for some reason believed that this was related to the skaters.

It might not be something as egregious as breaking in, but something less sinister like peeping, peering or something, which would unnerve a family but might not result in a police complaint.

Anyways, the gist of it is this. The killer might be more experienced in breaking in and entering, not just particularly for the Miyazawa house, although he is still a very inexperienced killer and has never been caught or convicted of anything before or after this.

We don't actually know that, technically-speaking

Yup, but I think we can infer that.

This inexperienced killer doesn’t account for blood, he infact is not even very confident of taking on an injured woman and child without a knife.

Does this psychologically speak of someone who is full of confidence with regards to his kill? Or is it someone sharp, who is using every advantage that he has in his book to maximise his success rate?

I think its the latter, and so if you extrapolate that thought process. Why would he randomly attack a house that from the outside, looks like it might be two houses joined together? Rather than a single isolated house.

How does he know not to go in the garage to look for stuff ( if he was even looking for anything)? How does he know there is no one in there, or a tunnel that connects to the other house?

This might seem a bit silly in hindsight, but I don’t think the killer would have gone into the houe without having used every advantage in his book, which would include some basic info about the house layout.

But, if we accept the premise that the bathroom window is the most logical entry point, then what would be so puzzling for the TMPD?

I am guessing the TMPD are stickler for details, and because they have no physical evidence, they are hesitant to commit to anything.
Just my take on it, you obviously have more feel for it.

As for the lack of physical evidence, you are right, and I have no knowledge about what is possible or not possible in this regard. So yes, thats definitely a problem in this theory.

 

[Cryptic]

@FacelessPodcast

Thanks for the detailed response. I am thinking the totality could detract from, but by no means eliminate, an unhinged skater motive- or as @SteveL raised the possibility of, an unhinged "Poseur" motive. (Wow, the collective knowledge on this forum is incredibly vast. How many people know that the shoes of skaters wear differently?)

Though there is always the possibility of an unhinged skater, the victim did not "pour gasoline" on a fire. Rather, his conduct was entirely in social norms- and thus less likely invoke an extreme response:

- Excess noise is more broadly defined in Japan. Polite enforcement of social norms by older people is common in Japan. Those receiving the enforcement are inclined to accept and obey- at least ostensibly, and likely in many cases, in spirit as well.

- Likewise, there is no evidence of a skater group responding "LA style" with a string of defiant profanities or threats. Rather, one skater group complied quickly. Though compliance by other groups may of been more reluctant, there is no record of anyone going "LA".

In the end, there seems to be a lower possibility for a severe confrontation, followed by a severe 'diss, and then by an extreme response.

But.... maybe @Incoherent 's noticing of a possible "'diss tag" very close to the victim's home shows that some skaters- or a poseur did not take the social norm noise enforcement well?