To my mind, I think it's very telling that he's able to pivot. Either, demonstrating a clear head in the face of a sudden problem (injuring his hand quite badly). Or, demonstrating that he's in too deep now but, considering the sirens aren't approaching, he has no better options so he decides to stay put. Maybe, he's lost enough blood that he's not making good choices. We've had users here with apparent medical backgrounds who've seemingly cast doubt on that possibility. But then in my own experience, when I've lost a fair amount of blood, I was deeply delirious and absolutely not making good choices.
@FacelessPodcast
Thank you for the in-depth response! I really appreciate it.
About the above: you have previously mentioned being stabbed, an experience that I didn't have (and hopefully never will), so I of course tend to incline towards your theory.
Maybe, as I said, the wound did play a part in staying in the house, but he was not thinking clearly.
One question I would like to add about this: some sources online go out of their way to say that the killer took a nap on the sofa.
I've always found the fact this detail was reported to be odd: yes the police could theoretically find out that he had been on the sofa, but what evidence is there he even took a nap? Perhaps being delirious and in pain, he just sat there for 5, 10, what-have-you minutes.
When speaking with your sources at the police, did this detail ever come up?
Another option is that he simply had to kill time between Point A -- 11:15pm approx and Point B -- his safe haven. Let's assume that place has a curfew, such as a base or a dorm. Maybe he was unable to return there at 1:30am (the last confirmed time-stamp of the killer in the house is 1:18-1:23AM -- that is the ONLY certainty on time frame here). So, let's pretend that he lived a few blocks away and he left the house at 1:23 and was able to reach his home or safe haven within a few minutes. Why not simply do that. Even bleeding, you'd think that would be his impulse: to flee. My point being, if it was an option, it would be one he would take, almost certainly. But now let's say that safe haven is a 40-minute drive away and there is some kind of regulation or observation at the door. Well, now that delay in the house explains itself a little more.
Admittedly, this is very interesting and a possibility I did not take into account.
But ultimately I still stand by my theory that he stayed in the house because of the wounds (and/or being delirious as you mentioned): if we entertain the idea he came with a car or a bycicle, couldn't it be that he couldn't drive due to the injury and thought that by waiting some time it would have gotten better since he could have been delirious or young (or both?).
I'll go even further: what if he didn't want to leave traces of blood on his vehicle, whatever that was? Since he even changed his clothes, this could be taken into consideration.
Lastly, I find it absurd to believe he went back with the first train with that kind of injury. All the reports of a young man with a wounded hand notwithstanding.
The net was found outside on the floor, yes. The TMPD have never said he didn't climb up the wall. What they have said to me is that they have no proof he went into the house through the window. Also, bear in mind his shoes would've likely been muddy. Yet zero traces of that in the window-frame or bath which he would've basically been climbing into or at least brushing up against. As you say, I find the bathroom window unlikely.
I see, so this would logically mean that he did in fact climb the fence/wall outside, removed the net and considered climbing from there but then deemed it impossible?
To me, this entry point has the fewest numbers of problems and fits the evidence best. Certainly, I'm yet to hear a convincing point against. I also think it's telling that the TMPD have not discussed it openly. To your question, yes, the height between the car roof and the balcony was a very negotiable gap. We don't know if the killer left traces on the car, that's never been confirmed. But I would assume it's likely. Same goes for the lock. My guess would be that, given how frequently those doors would be opened and closed, they would be unlocked.
I'm torn about the fact the TMPD have not discussed it. We have seen this kind of pattern before (the all sand thing), and I'm not sure what it suggests.
From your perspective, what does their silence mean on this particular subject? Did Tsuchida-san ever say anything about this?
The killer, who is also their piano teacher, arrives late one night, when Mikio's family are sleeping and asks to use the toilet in his home (when there is a public one mere metres away outside the house). Firstly, I am not convinced that anyone could solve that logic problem. If Mikio knows him well enough to grant him the trust to go into his home at night unsupervised, then he knows the killer. And if he knows the killer, the TMPD finds him. Of course, it's possible they simply missed the guy. But based on all the interviews I've conducted with them, comparing their efforts with police investigations I've seen up close in the UK, the USA, and Spain? I would be utterly astonished if Mikio knew him that well the TMPD simply overlooked him in plain sight. I don't say it's impossible. But I do say that I'm convinced that this guy isn't hiding in plain sight. Moreover, returning to your scenario, secondarily; if Mikio did let him go upstairs, the killer is wearing his shoes. The footprints in the blood start above going down. Which makes sense given where the stabbing begins. Did the killer, barefoot at this point if he leaves his shoes in the genkan, somehow float over Mikio's body to retrieve his footwear, then float back over him to the stairs to then walk in the blood pooling? Perhaps there is some scenario wherein this is possible that I haven't considered. But from what I've seen. No.
I have to say, you have convinced me that this reconstruction and general idea is possibly too far-fetched.
For two main reasons:
- The toilet right behind the house in the park.
- Not removing his shoes at the entrance (how could I not think about this????)
For now I disregard the front door theory. Too many ifs and buts and the window on Rei's balcony is an almost perfect fit.
However this brings even more questions.
Let's picture the situation:
The killer wants to kill this whole family and decides that on the night of December 30th he's gonna act out.
How did he even know that the windows would be open? Pure luck? He just went and attempted to climb the rear bathroom window in the hope it would be open and even go out of his way and remove the net and possibly not finding another entry point and having to forfeit the murders for the night?
If none of this would have happened, the next morning the Miyazawas would have noticed the net on the floor, if not even the fact that someone attempted an home invasion, alerting them and narrowing the chances for future attempts.
Perhaps I'm giving the killer too much credit? It is often reported that he could have been very young after all...
Also, he just tried his luck, climbed the car and check if Rei's window was open?
The only plausible theory is that he must have studied them for some time and somewhat knew their habits?
As I said in the previous post, the entry point bothers me so much is unreal.
Finally I'm not even going to comment on the whole "killing Rei because of his disability".
This goes into borderline conspirational unless there is evidence backing it up.
We simply don't know. If I were a betting man, I would assume the killer, if he was young particularly, probably assumed that strangling someone to death -- even a sleeping child -- would be easier than it is. From the image of his body, he's lying at a strange angle that locks unnatural for sleep suggesting, to me at least, that he moved around while the killer was strangling him. Or, let's turn this around, if the killer WAS able to strangle the child in total silence, then he has pretty bad luck seeing that Mikio comes up the stairs in that very moment. More likely there was some noise, shoes on the floorboards displacing weight, bed creaking possibly -- that led to Mikio checking.
Very true.
Like you, I don't discount its connection to the murders. But nobody here has proved or even good evidence for one. Clearly, the TMPD want to eliminate it from the case otherwise they wouldn't be asking about it. But if it were the killer leaving it behind, as you say, then not only is he taking another insane risk but it also requires that Jason Bourne sort of killer; able to live off the grid for years, walking amongst us etc. I can't disprove that, I can only say that there is nothing the killer does in the house that suggests he's that kind of man. Thus, far more likely in my view, he simply left the nation or he died. He will almost certainly be an unremarkable man when he is found. And I'm willing to bet his reasons, such as they were, for murdering this family, will be utter garbage. To finish on the statue, anyone saying they think it's the killer leaving it must then, not only embrace the idea of this Jason Bourne-type mastermind, but also give a credible reason why he would do this. I've seen users do this in the thread. In my estimation, nobody has achieved that.
Nothing to add on this. I agree 100%.
I'm not going to confirm on updates and so on.
Understood.
As I said, I will not push the matter further.
Unrelated to all the above: I have found a petition online about an individual asking the TMPD to answer their emails about the case. There are a lot of very specific, random and out of nowhere (if not borderline imaginative) details in the text of the petition.
It is dated 27 July of this year if I'm not mistaken and I was wondering if anyone knows/has seen anything about it.
I'm not posting the link because I don't know if it's against the rules, but I can if prompted to.
