Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000

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I've skimmed through the thread and I'm sorry if I missed this: Do you know *when* the bag was DNA tested?

If it was 20+ years ago it's quite possible they might have missed small or degraded samples of another person's DNA. If it was more recent it's less likely they would have missed something.
I don't know exactly their timeline for testing but they do have state-of-the-art facilities and still keep something like 30-40 detectives on this full-time, apparently. So, it would shock me if they tested it between 2001-2005 and just left it at that. You'll see more on the problems with DNA testing by the TMPD in general throughout this whole thread / FACELESS podcast. But basically, the Chief seemed adamant that only the killer's DNA was in that bag. However, as I've mentioned before, he was not keen to talk about the sand. The one topic he seemed to shift away from me on.

Make of that what you will.
 
Wow, Faceless. I like your attitude! (A bit concerned about previous rodeos, though.) :)

Anyway, your post makes me wonder what happens to vehicles when people are transferred from base to base all over the world? If he had access to a car, would he have sold it? And another question: Do you have any idea if your POI has ever popped into the awareness of the TMPD?

Lastly, be careful!
Haha well not rodeos involving murder, thankfully. But I would back myself (but maybe I'm just picturing the POI). Either way, apparently I just have a very punchable face... I will be careful! I am a man of letters not violence. (Though I would make an exception for this guy).

RE: the cars on Yokota and other Japanese bases. One of two, usually. Either, you sell your car to another family as you rotate out, or you sell to one of the nearby dealers. You can google those, there's quite a few!

RE: whether or not the TMPD know about the POI. I don't know but my feeling is no. But if the answer IS no, it's because they didn't chase this down. So, as I've said above and several times before. Why? Am I simply wrong for some occulted reason that they won't share? What harm could there be in publicly discounting the sand, for example? I don't know. Or am I right and they simply don't want to scrutinise a scenario where geopolitics gets wrapped in this? I don't know, I'm just fishing in the dark here...
 
I don't know exactly their timeline for testing but they do have state-of-the-art facilities and still keep something like 30-40 detectives on this full-time, apparently. So, it would shock me if they tested it between 2001-2005 and just left it at that. You'll see more on the problems with DNA testing by the TMPD in general throughout this whole thread / FACELESS podcast. But basically, the Chief seemed adamant that only the killer's DNA was in that bag. However, as I've mentioned before, he was not keen to talk about the sand. The one topic he seemed to shift away from me on.

Make of that what you will.

Thank you. I followed another Japanese case, the disappearance of American citizen Pattie Wu-Murad, and the Japanese police seemed reluctant to talk about certain things in that case, also.

Things involving foreign countries, in this case sand from the USA, seem to cause Japanese authorities to clam up. It's hard to know if they're hiding something, or just want to avoid being disrespectful and causing a foreign relations incident.
 
Thank you. I followed another Japanese case, the disappearance of American citizen Pattie Wu-Murad, and the Japanese police seemed reluctant to talk about certain things in that case, also.

Things involving foreign countries, in this case sand from the USA, seem to cause Japanese authorities to clam up. It's hard to know if they're hiding something, or just want to avoid being disrespectful and causing a foreign relations incident.
I think you're on to something there, yes. I mean, I have no evidence for saying this. But we don't have to be experts in international relations to know that requesting the extradition of a US citizen to potentially execute him while the world is the way the world is... it's going to be tricky at best.
 
I think he was either killing time, yes, or he simply needed the time he needed to feel well enough to walk out. And as comments below and several times in the thread, yes he used both first aid products and the mother's sanitary pads to stem the bloodflow. The Chief said several times, he lost a "significant" amount of blood in the house. And yet he persisted with the killings. That tells me, there's no effing way this was a robbery. A robbery's motive is financial.

The injuries seem to be to both hands, not just the right. It seems as if he switched the knife to his left hand after hurting the right one. Which explains why there is blood in both gloves. I believe the slices and cutting to the gloves gives the TMPD a steer on HOW he was injured and also how much was in the gloves / how much blood was left in the house. It's not 100% certain but I would bet my life that he is carrying scars today at least to his hand hand/wrist.

I haven't heard about a mailman / seeing a light on in the house. As I say, the ONLY CERTAIN time stamp is 10:38pm to 1:23am. There are a few 'witness statements' on the night but none of them sound that credible. Supposedly, Yasuko herself complained about 'a car parking too close' to the house in the days before the murder. This is the one I'm most likely to believe (and incidentally, I believe the killer had access to a car).

As to whether or not the killer used public transport to escape. I find this almost impossible to believe. Sunrise on December 31st in Tokyo is somewhere around 06:50am. The first train of the day in Tokyo is around 5am. So even well before sunrise, there are going to be people on those trains and it's a city of 40 million people. I find it extremely hard to believe that NOBODY saw a young man, with no jacket (that we know of, Mikio had none missing that we know of) and extensive hand injuries / bandaged up with Yasuko's sanitary pads? Not one? On a day when many people would be travelling early to see family, leave town etc. For nobody to remember him, especially when the news breaks shortly after? I suppose it's possible but the killer would need miraculous luck. For me, it is massively more likely he either left on foot meaning he was almost certainly local or had somewhere to stay locally for a short time before getting the eff out before the heat rolls in. Or he left by bike but his hands were shredded so that would probably have been very uncomfortable at the very least. OR, for my theory connecting him to Yokota to hold true, most likely he would have had a car. Which both solves the journey to Yokota, some 30-40 minutes away, and explains how nobody saw him at all.

But, a car means at least 18. You can drive a small motorbike at 16 in Japan, and a car, only at 18.

Now assuming he is from Yokota base and drives a car, where does it put us?

First, he is not that impaired, mentally or otherwise. Metropolitan Tokyo, in 2000 was a tad less than 35 million people. I had to recheck it to believe. Left-side driving. Even with their wonderful subway, I would never risk to drive a car in Tokyo. If the perp was driving a car and young, this mere fact throws a lot of assumptions out of the window. He can’t be slow, he can’t even be klutzy, he may be slightly nerdish but pretty with it, physically. The police said, living a student life. So maybe, he was attending some college taking Japanese classes. And parents bought him a car, because, independence, why not.

BTW, is there any cultural difference between Japan as compared to, say, South Korea and US in terms of buying a child his first car? In the US, it is almost a must in school. Would Japan be more modest in their approach?

I wonder if he, indeed, had a car but lived somewhere closer, in a dorm? And used the car to get around. He could have sneaked out of a dorm but drove the car to get back to the base because no way would one return back to the dorm wounded.

Plus, imagine he uses the car to get back to the base. He is still supposed to show some documents, it is a base.

I think neither of these things happened. I think he came out, called from a phone booth to one of the parents and they picked him up.

Or, if he is not from the base, a local but in the same circumstances, he probably called his family, too, and the same happened.

Or: he is not a 15 or 18. He is an adult, close to 30, and has been driving around and living an adult life. He might be a local who slipped through the net. Or if he is from a base, he might be the husband of a woman serving there. Why not?
 
First, he is not that impaired, mentally or otherwise. Metropolitan Tokyo, in 2000 was a tad less than 35 million people. I had to recheck it to believe. Left-side driving. Even with their wonderful subway, I would never risk to drive a car in Tokyo. If the perp was driving a car and young, this mere fact throws a lot of assumptions out of the window. He can’t be slow, he can’t even be klutzy, he may be slightly nerdish but pretty with it, physically. The police said, living a student life. So maybe, he was attending some college taking Japanese classes. And parents bought him a car, because, independence, why not.
I think all of these are very fair, rational points; however, I think it’s extremely possible that someone who murdered four people and haunted their home for hours afterward like it was a holiday house could have their lowered inhibition to operate a car even in somewhere as saturated as Tokyo (though my money would be on public transport).

I think if we consider the route from Point A (the murderer’s “home base” so to speak) to Point B (crime scene) — certainly anything short of a private chauffeur would be extremely risky.

idk, imo it points to a younger suspect
 
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I wonder if there could be another area of crossing paths.


Excerpt:

"The eight-year-old was in second grade at school and a year ahead in her studies.
Her grandmother Setsuko fondly remembers how much she loved her and ballet.
"Niina loved to show me her moves. She was just a bright and adorable child," she said.

Niina's six-year-old brother Rei lived with a mental disability, and his parents surrounded him with love and support."

I watched Pat Brown yesterday (I don't subscribe to her analysis in this case) but she mentioned two interesting things: Rei had a speech impediment and also that Mikio was perfectionistic to the extreme.

Regarding impediment, Rei was in speech therapy.

Is there a possibility of meeting Miyazawas there? We don't know where Rei took lessons, whether it was a medical facility, an OT one, or a private therapist whom another person could visit as an adult?

And second...if Mikio was so obsessive, such people make good detectives themselves. Were he a teacher, I'd understand why he could be attacked - such teachers easily notice plagiarism, for example. But he was not. Well, Mikio could have noticed financial misappropriation or any other behavior bordering on illegality, at work or anywhere else.

Because the murderer was looking for some papers, it seems.
 
I watched Pat Brown yesterday (I don't subscribe to her analysis in this case) but she mentioned two interesting things: Rei had a speech impediment and also that Mikio was perfectionistic to the extreme.

Regarding impediment, Rei was in speech therapy.

Is there a possibility of meeting Miyazawas there? We don't know where Rei took lessons, whether it was a medical facility, an OT one, or a private therapist whom another person could visit as an adult?

And second...if Mikio was so obsessive, such people make good detectives themselves. Were he a teacher, I'd understand why he could be attacked - such teachers easily notice plagiarism, for example. But he was not. Well, Mikio could have noticed financial misappropriation or any other behavior bordering on illegality, at work or anywhere else.

Because the murderer was looking for some papers, it seems.
I watched Pat Brown's video too. Doing my best to ignore her views on politics, how does she know *anything* at all about Mikio? Has she spoken to his family? Has she spoken to his former colleagues? Does she speak Japanese? I intend no disrespect here, but my opinion is: she's riffing. She's reading into details from my podcast perhaps, or articles, and building a picture. Then again, she could say the same about me. I don't pretend to be any authority, though. My guesswork is just guesswork.

Though, I can tell you based on long conversations with the Chief (another person who she has not spoken to) that Rei's education and Niina's were both looked at extensively. The same goes for Mikio's workplace. His colleagues all said the same thing: "he wasn't working on anything controversial or involved in anything polemic". This was even quoted in the newspapers in week 1 back in 2001. I am not saying that it is impossible the TMPD overlooked anything. As I have said many times, I have my concerns about several aspects of the investigation. But I would be absolutely stunned if they somehow missed the killer if he existed in the family's day-to-day life. Colleague/teacher/student etc. 280,000 personnel working long hours across 23 years and they somehow miss the killer in plain sight? For me, it seems far more likely that someone unknown to the family (or close to unknown) would be able to elude them. Also, if it were some kind of pervert stalking Niina's school, or some disturbed person connected to Rei's facilities: does that kind of person go 23 years without any kind of re-offence? All possible, of course.

Finally, re: it seems as if the killer was looking for some papers. Well, yes. But it also could seem like he wanted to make it seem that way. We don't know his intentions with the papers any more than we do with logging on to the computer, any more than we do with slaughter four people.
 
But, a car means at least 18. You can drive a small motorbike at 16 in Japan, and a car, only at 18.

Now assuming he is from Yokota base and drives a car, where does it put us?

First, he is not that impaired, mentally or otherwise. Metropolitan Tokyo, in 2000 was a tad less than 35 million people. I had to recheck it to believe. Left-side driving. Even with their wonderful subway, I would never risk to drive a car in Tokyo. If the perp was driving a car and young, this mere fact throws a lot of assumptions out of the window. He can’t be slow, he can’t even be klutzy, he may be slightly nerdish but pretty with it, physically. The police said, living a student life. So maybe, he was attending some college taking Japanese classes. And parents bought him a car, because, independence, why not.

BTW, is there any cultural difference between Japan as compared to, say, South Korea and US in terms of buying a child his first car? In the US, it is almost a must in school. Would Japan be more modest in their approach?

I wonder if he, indeed, had a car but lived somewhere closer, in a dorm? And used the car to get around. He could have sneaked out of a dorm but drove the car to get back to the base because no way would one return back to the dorm wounded.

Plus, imagine he uses the car to get back to the base. He is still supposed to show some documents, it is a base.

I think neither of these things happened. I think he came out, called from a phone booth to one of the parents and they picked him up.

Or, if he is not from the base, a local but in the same circumstances, he probably called his family, too, and the same happened.

Or: he is not a 15 or 18. He is an adult, close to 30, and has been driving around and living an adult life. He might be a local who slipped through the net. Or if he is from a base, he might be the husband of a woman serving there. Why not?
See, I don't think it's as significant at all. Your own feelings on the transport system versus driving might look very different to the way the killer saw it. If he *was* American, he could legally be learning to drive as young as 14 in some states. I've spoken to many people who lived on Yokota / Misawa and so on. They all had access to cars before 18. Whether that's their own car, their parents, or a friend or sibling who would lend it to them.

And even if the law in Japan states you have to be 18 to operate a car, why would that stop him? There are also laws in Japan that state you can't slaughter an innocent family. Yes, he's taking a risk by driving illegally off-base. But his entire chain of behaviour tells us he doesn't give a s**t about risk versus his 'reward'.

Also, we *couldn't* he be impaired or klutzy? I have seen many, many Americans who are not the paragon of motoring ideals.

I can't speak to the attitudes of an entire nation but I would assume buying a car for a child in Japan is far, far less common than in the US. But my point is that the killer was not Japanese so therefore moot. I also believe the killer, despite being American, had been taking Japanese lessons for quite a while. In fact, if I'm going out on a limb, it wouldn't surprise me if the killer actually liked cars quite a lot. (The POI I'm looking at fits with all this).

The base has curfew -- 5am for his age bracket, I believe. Which explains why he waited a few hours in the house, perhaps, taken in conjunction with his blood loss. He would show his ID on the way back into base. But what's the problem with that? The USAF aren't going to start looking for a killer inside their base simply because it's on the news. And as a prominent Japan-based author told me: even if it occurred to the TMPD that the killer might be inside Yokota, it's a very different thing for them to do anything about it...
 
Final point on the driving route: yes, it goes through various built-up areas. But he would not be driving through the beating heart of Shinjuku. He's essentially driving from the outskirts of Tokyo into suburban Tokyo, mainly along the E20.
Screenshot 2023-12-29 at 09.28.24.jpg
 
Having thoroughly read through the first few pages of the thread, at this point my gut would say the perpetrator was perhaps a young military member himself.

Except that I can't see how a member of the military could suffer such severe hand injuries, and not have those injuries be noticed. It's one thing if the TMPD are reluctant to accuse a US citizen; it's quite another if the US military had suspicions and chose to do nothing.

The hand injuries he's believed to have suffered wouldn't be easily hidden.
 
Final point on the driving route: yes, it goes through various built-up areas. But he would not be driving through the beating heart of Shinjuku. He's essentially driving from the outskirts of Tokyo into suburban Tokyo, mainly along the E20.
View attachment 471800
Has the possibility that the perp might have been riding a bike been discounted?
 
Apologies if I'm covering things that have already been discussed. As I go through the thread I'm trying to make notes to keep track of the details.

Rei had no blood on his body, which IMO does mean he was killed first. My guess is that the killer opened the first door he came to, which happened to be the childrens' bedroom--or if the killer knew the layout, perhaps he even expected Niina to be in there. I'm not convinced by the robbery theory, but perhaps it was meant to be a kidnapping that went wrong?

Is it certain that Mikio went upstairs *before* the attack on him started? Or could the killer have confronted Mikio in the entrance hall, and Mikio attempted to flee upstairs to protect his family? The wounds to Mikio's buttocks suggest the killer could have been below Mikio on the stairs, stabbing up at Mikio's legs from behind. If Mikio was wildly kicking and the killer was wildly stabbing at any body part he could reach, that might explain breaking the knife.
 
Apologies if I'm covering things that have already been discussed. As I go through the thread I'm trying to make notes to keep track of the details.

Rei had no blood on his body, which IMO does mean he was killed first. My guess is that the killer opened the first door he came to, which happened to be the childrens' bedroom--or if the killer knew the layout, perhaps he even expected Niina to be in there. I'm not convinced by the robbery theory, but perhaps it was meant to be a kidnapping that went wrong?

Is it certain that Mikio went upstairs *before* the attack on him started? Or could the killer have confronted Mikio in the entrance hall, and Mikio attempted to flee upstairs to protect his family? The wounds to Mikio's buttocks suggest the killer could have been below Mikio on the stairs, stabbing up at Mikio's legs from behind. If Mikio was wildly kicking and the killer was wildly stabbing at any body part he could reach, that might explain breaking the knife.
If Rei was killed first, I think the balcony HAS to be the entry point. With what I understand of the layout I don’t see any other way that could have been the case.

I honestly didn’t know the balcony existed for a while, and until then I was certain that Rei was killed last, quite a while after the other three.

I am completely baffled on motive in this case, so I guess kidnapping is as good a possibility as any. I definitely agree it wasn’t robbery though.
 
Final point on the driving route: yes, it goes through various built-up areas. But he would not be driving through the beating heart of Shinjuku. He's essentially driving from the outskirts of Tokyo into suburban Tokyo, mainly along the E20.
View attachment 471800

Makes sense. Still, I don't think the US military base would open the (Doors? Gates?) to a kid from the base without still officially asking for the documents. They'd notice injured hands and napkins or pads? So I think that someone from the base, a parent, might have picked him up. (I just realized that before 9-11, things in US were very lax). Or, he had to clean himself somewhere well before returning.

ETA: changed the dates - just realized 9/11 yet had to happen.
 
I watched Pat Brown's video too. Doing my best to ignore her views on politics, how does she know *anything* at all about Mikio? Has she spoken to his family? Has she spoken to his former colleagues? Does she speak Japanese? I intend no disrespect here, but my opinion is: she's riffing. She's reading into details from my podcast perhaps, or articles, and building a picture. Then again, she could say the same about me. I don't pretend to be any authority, though. My guesswork is just guesswork.

Though, I can tell you based on long conversations with the Chief (another person who she has not spoken to) that Rei's education and Niina's were both looked at extensively. The same goes for Mikio's workplace. His colleagues all said the same thing: "he wasn't working on anything controversial or involved in anything polemic". This was even quoted in the newspapers in week 1 back in 2001. I am not saying that it is impossible the TMPD overlooked anything. As I have said many times, I have my concerns about several aspects of the investigation. But I would be absolutely stunned if they somehow missed the killer if he existed in the family's day-to-day life. Colleague/teacher/student etc. 280,000 personnel working long hours across 23 years and they somehow miss the killer in plain sight? For me, it seems far more likely that someone unknown to the family (or close to unknown) would be able to elude them. Also, if it were some kind of pervert stalking Niina's school, or some disturbed person connected to Rei's facilities: does that kind of person go 23 years without any kind of re-offence? All possible, of course.

Finally, re: it seems as if the killer was looking for some papers. Well, yes. But it also could seem like he wanted to make it seem that way. We don't know his intentions with the papers any more than we do with logging on to the computer, any more than we do with slaughter four people.

I am trained not to listen what people say about politics, I just block everything, but I think she mentioned you, although it took her some effort to pronounce your name? ;) That made me chuckle. (I suspect the surname might common in Spain, but here, boy ...Lots and lots of history and geography connected to it in Mexico.) However - she acknowledged you, and many lot of good things were said about you in comments.

Overall, a lightweight. If your work is "War and Peace", tons of information, one has to dedicate time to it, but but firsthand, thoughtful, insightful and a must-read, a masterpiece in criminology, in comparison, she is the "Readers Digest".
 
I can't speak to the attitudes of an entire nation but I would assume buying a car for a child in Japan is far, far less common than in the US.
There could also be a financial motive that reduces car purchases in Japan.

My military family lived in Belgium at that time. Belgium, being a small and relatively densely populated country, had incentives in place to discourage excessive car purchases:

A- Very high taxes on cars that were said to effectively double the price of purchasing a car.
B- Very rigorous safety requirements that were said to effectively ban many older cars from being retained and passed on.

As a side note, US military in Belgium was exempt all of "A" and I believe also exempt portions of "B" in regards to sales of older cars. Not all Belgians fully appreciated the exemptions.
 
Having thoroughly read through the first few pages of the thread, at this point my gut would say the perpetrator was perhaps a young military member himself.

Except that I can't see how a member of the military could suffer such severe hand injuries, and not have those injuries be noticed. It's one thing if the TMPD are reluctant to accuse a US citizen; it's quite another if the US military had suspicions and chose to do nothing.

The hand injuries he's believed to have suffered wouldn't be easily hidden.

You know, a young military member can have more reasons.

Two men can get angry with one another for virtually no reason. A wider smile of a local server in a pub, that stuff. That doesn't give any specific reason, but a man getting deadly upset with another man, sadly, might have ample illogical reasons. Increase the perp's age, and it all looks very different. But the police said, 15-40, so he may be 25 or close to 30.
 
I don't think the US military base would open the (Doors? Gates?) to a kid from the base without still officially asking for the documents. They'd notice injured hands and napkins or pads?
US bases can be 'open' or 'closed'. As the name implies, 'open' bases allow public entry, but can have restricted areas that are closed off.

Most US bases are 'closed'. As you implied, anybody seeking entry to a 'closed' base must show ID at the gate. The ID functions as an entry permit. ID / entry permit are restrictive and obtaining them is difficult.

In my experience, the gate guards (usually military, but some times hi end private security) are very observant. Things out of the ordinary such as injuries would be noticed and questioned- and the questions would probably be mini investigative and not: "Wow! Crazy stuff happens- welcome back."

This likely level of scrutiny is due to the fact that base commanders are under alot of pressure to keep good relations with local communities- this is especially true of over seas bases and doubly so if a good number of locals are tired of the bases.

Thus, indications of a dependent, serviceman, or civilian contractor returning to base after being in a brawl with locals (or even other servicemen), being involved in an off base accident, or getting hurt in wild "animal house" antics are likely to be questioned. Base commanders really want to know of these incidents before they are made public.

This does not mean that every "got in a fight" or "hurt my hand helping to change a tire" type claim is then subjected to a full investigation. But... base commanders know that seemingly small incidents can turn into big incidents. I can see a parent of a dependent or a NCO from a serviceman's unit being called if the guards noticed injuries and did not like the answers.
 
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