I agree as well.
Going on the totality, however, I think a link to US bases though possible is less likely:
- The murderer was not noted as being of mixed ethnicity when purchasing the knife. This increases the odds that the European DNA came from an earlier generation- including distant ones and reduces the chances of a current connection to a base.
Then factor in the following possible cultural observations:
- The murderer evidently reads, writes and speaks Japanese to the extent that he was able to use the familiy's computer and the knife vendor did not notice an accent etc.
- His last meal was Japanese comfort type food. He then picks a Japanese tea over more western soda and beer.
- The crime seems to have occurred in a "Japanese" part of Tokyo. It did not occur near the base, in areas frequented by US servicemen and perhaps way ward youth connected to the base etc.
Getting to the point.....
My guess is that if the perpetrator was associated with the base and living with mother, he would have not only European DNA, but would likely have a bigger dose of US culture. Thus....
- Crime occurs closer to the base- where he feels comfortable. As mother is the source of DNA, his mixed ethnicity features are noticeable.
- As mother is the source access to the base and he presumably lives at the base, his ability to read Japanese is limited. He makes no effort to use computer.
- Analysis of meal reveals USA style white bread, not Japanese comfort food. He instinctually grabs the western style soda, not the barley tea.....
Another set of really interesting points, Cryptic -- thanks as ever. Really enjoying our back and forth. And just to play devil's advocate...
It's not a case if
whether there is a link to US air bases. There IS inarguably a link to US air bases, in one way or another. Whether it MEANS anything, we don't know. There are, however, big coincidences. For one, there is sand from Edwards in their house. And Yokota, which has its own connection to Edwards, is just 17 miles away.
Taking your points in turn:
- The murderer was not noted as being of mixed ethnicity when purchasing the knife. This increases the odds that the European DNA came from an earlier generation- including distant ones and reduces the chances of a current connection to a base.
I'm not actually sure what was noted about the killer or not when purchasing a knife. I don't think the police have ever commented on that. Is this something you've seen? Would love to read if you could send it my way, if so. In any case, I agree the DNA doesn't tell us anything hard and fast about his mixed ethnicity. That said, it's quite possible, even if he was clearly a 'hafu' to the eye, that he wore a mask while purchasing the knife. In any case, distancing him from a US air base due to DNA is assuming that, say, two Asian-Americans couldn't have a connection to the US military.
- The murderer evidently reads, writes and speaks Japanese to the extent that he was able to use the familiy's computer and the knife vendor did not notice an accent etc.
Totally agree that this is an interesting point. He must speak Japanese, and as I understand it, the more formal Japanese that Mikio was using in his work documents. So, it's almost certain that the killer has had an exposure to Japanese from an early age. But why that would mean it's unlikely for him to have a connection to a US air base, I'm not sure I follow.
- His last meal was Japanese comfort type food. He then picks a Japanese tea over more western soda and beer.
I'm not sure I agree that this points to anything much. Whenever I'm in Japan, I drink green/barley tea and eat string beans too. It's possible it's part of a local guy's diet. Or not. What I DO find interesting is where those string beans and sesame were from. I've spoken to a scientist who's told me that the police would be able to work out exactly where in the world the beans and seeds were grown. That should be enough to piece together whether or not the killer ate that meal from, say, a 7-Eleven, or whether somewhere else such as a canteen.
- The crime seems to have occurred in a "Japanese" part of Tokyo. It did not occur near the base, in areas frequented by US servicemen and perhaps way ward youth connected to the base etc.
But it did occur near the base, relatively speaking anyway. Roppongi is about 14km away and Yokota AB is 28km away. In any case, the killer likely had a connection to Soshigaya in *some* way as 5 out of the 10 things he was wearing on him were on sale in the local area. What brought him there, I don't know. As you've seen, one popular theory is the skate park across the road. I've spoken to multiple skateboarders and it sounds as if skate parks weren't easy to come by and street skating was very frowned upon. I don't know whether the killer had anything to do with skating or not but, if he did, he might well gravitate to a place were other kids who were into similar things as him hung out.
My guess is that if the perpetrator was associated with the base and living with mother, he would have not only European DNA, but would likely have a bigger dose of US culture. Thus....
- Crime occurs closer to the base- where he feels comfortable. As mother is the source of DNA, his mixed ethnicity features are noticeable.
- As mother is the source access to the base and he presumably lives at the base, his ability to read Japanese is limited. He makes no effort to use computer.
- Analysis of meal reveals USA style white bread, not Japanese comfort food. He instinctually grabs the western style soda, not the barley tea.....
Well, he *does* have European DNA, we just don't know how much of that is apparent to the eye. As Angleterre has said, have the TMPD done genealogy? That would help us to know because at the moment what we know about his DNA doesn't tell us a great deal. As for his exposure to US culture, we can't have any way of knowing what that is. Him eating green beans and reading Japanese doesn't prevent him from also eating corndogs and singing along to Hank Williams the week before.
As for being close to the base, he's like an hour away on public transport. In Tokyo terms, given the size of the city, that's not a crazy journey to make. As for his language and where he picks it up, we have no way of knowing. My mother isn't Spanish and my father is but she learned the language and I grew up speaking it with her. Our DNA wouldn't tell that story. And finally, like I've said above, being an American wouldn't automatically make you grab the Coke in the fridge.
All of that to say that while I can't be sure about any of it and that I remain completely open-minded to the killer being a local or something along those lines, I do think one could very plausibly still see a connection to Yokota or even Yokosuka further away.
