Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000

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Frankie Hellis said:
Firstly, we need to find out about his known addresses. Has he been to the place where the sand came from? What can we find out about his military career? I am currently working with a PI on another investigation who has access to subscription-type data and many OSINT tools, if you want any help.
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He didn't have a military career, he was the son of someone working on-base. So a parent who was most likely in the USAF or perhaps a contractor / working in a civilian role on-base. As for whether or not he's been to Edwards, we don't yet know that. But if he's an American then the possibility of him having been to California before becomes greater.

It's possible the 'suspect' went on to have a military career himself subsequent to the murders but back in December 2000 he was a teenager at school.

It's possible he has dual-citizenship. And it's also possible he was adopted. But he *does* have a Korean surname.
 
The strange thing for me, is that I've held on to this pet theory for so many years. I've always thought that this profile would be fairly likely to explain the killer's make-up and actions. But having a pet theory didn't mean actually believing it would match up to the reality.

And so I want to make sure I'm not falling into the trap of confirmation bias. Then again, the TMPD have had 22 years, unlimited resources, and so far zero persons of interest (at least in public). That's why I can't stop thinking about this 'John'. What if...
 
Thanks so much for making the podcast. It was clear just how much thought you had put into your research, as well as how respectful you were to the family. I had heard a few before about this case that were basically just someone speculating one someone else’s speculations.

I live in Japan not too far from Soshigaya park (speaking relatively), it is around a 30 min cycle from my house. I’d been to the park a few times before learning about the case.

Here are my musings for what they are worth:

Some people seem to be speculating about the significance of filling the bathtub. In Japan it is common to leave a tub filled for several days and reheat it, leaving a cover on when not in use (I’ll circle back to this).

The outfit worn by the killer is actually not that unusual. Long-sleeved tops and that style of hat are a fairly common combination around Tokyo with younger guys. I think it more likely that they were his own regular clothes than he purchased a mish mash outfit for the killing.

I’m not sold on the US/Korean airman theory for a couple of reasons. Firstly it is quite common for Japanese media to blame violent crime on non-Japanese people (especially Koreans) so it seems like people just jumped on the DNA marker line. Secondly to get from Yokote base to the park requires several hours on trains which also necessitate transiting through Shinjuku station (the busiest in the world) so CCTV would have picked him up at some point along the route. I’m not sure why people are focused on Yokote either, when there is a base much closer called Zama. Thirdly the behaviour in the house speaks to me more of someone who has been brought up in Japanese culture. The folding of clothes, the wrapping of the knife in the handkerchief, the choice of barley tea.

Also, please correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought that the only connection with Edwards Air base was because people speculated that that might be something a tourist might want to see. There was no evidence that the sand actually came from there, just that it probably originated somewhere near there and the air base fit into the Airman theory that was popular.

Going back to the bath, bath covers are fairly flimsy. I find it hard to believe that he could of climbed in through that window head first and then been able to avoid stepping on the bath. If he had stepped on it, the cover would have collapsed and he’d have fallen in the bath with a fairly loud crash and splash. That leads me to lean towards some of the other theories that he came in a different way.

The timeline given for Nina and the mother always confuses me a little. I think if I was attacked by a knife-wielding man who then just went downstairs, I would wait a long time to be sure he’d gone before heading out. Either that or they suspected he thought they were dead and were waiting for a chance to slip away. That would explain keeping as quiet as possible.

The thing that disturbs me the most is the killing of Rei. I feel the opposite about what his method of death means. To me the stabbings seem frenzied and wild, like the killer was fighting with all three. Strangling Rei though was clearly deliberate and cold and would have been a very personal way to kill someone.

The cat killings seem to me to be important. Do you have a link to the 2Chan post mentioned on the podcast? The cat killings seem to have stopped just before the murders. In 2008 there were more cat killings in Setagaya and residents were terrified it was the same person. Recently there was a spate of cat killings in Tokyo that culminated in the offender stabbing someone. So there is a pattern. I feel like based on how he must have known some detailed information about the family, together with how easy it was for him to slip in and out, he must’ve been familiar with the park and the local area.

Sorry, last point. I think it is actually not that unlikely that a family somewhere nearby are very aware that their son came home one morning with a hand injury and a strangers jacket and put two and two together. It is actually quite believable that they would cover it up rather than risk the shame on the family that would come from reporting him. Look at the Junko Furuta case. The parents of one of the boys were well aware that a girl was in their house being raped and tortured for 44 days and didn’t say a word because they were ashamed.


Well thoughts over. Thanks again for the great podcast. If you want to know more about the area, train routes etc, feel free to get in touch
 
TokyoSleuth said:
Thanks so much for making the podcast. It was clear just how much thought you had put into your research, as well as how respectful you were to the family. I had heard a few before about this case that were basically just someone speculating one someone else’s speculations.

I live in Japan not too far from Soshigaya park (speaking relatively), it is around a 30 min cycle from my house. I’d been to the park a few times before learning about the case.

Here are my musings for what they are worth:

Some people seem to be speculating about the significance of filling the bathtub. In Japan it is common to leave a tub filled for several days and reheat it, leaving a cover on when not in use (I’ll circle back to this).

The outfit worn by the killer is actually not that unusual. Long-sleeved tops and that style of hat are a fairly common combination around Tokyo with younger guys. I think it more likely that they were his own regular clothes than he purchased a mish mash outfit for the killing.

I’m not sold on the US/Korean airman theory for a couple of reasons. Firstly it is quite common for Japanese media to blame violent crime on non-Japanese people (especially Koreans) so it seems like people just jumped on the DNA marker line. Secondly to get from Yokote base to the park requires several hours on trains which also necessitate transiting through Shinjuku station (the busiest in the world) so CCTV would have picked him up at some point along the route. I’m not sure why people are focused on Yokote either, when there is a base much closer called Zama. Thirdly the behaviour in the house speaks to me more of someone who has been brought up in Japanese culture. The folding of clothes, the wrapping of the knife in the handkerchief, the choice of barley tea.

Also, please correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought that the only connection with Edwards Air base was because people speculated that that might be something a tourist might want to see. There was no evidence that the sand actually came from there, just that it probably originated somewhere near there and the air base fit into the Airman theory that was popular.

Going back to the bath, bath covers are fairly flimsy. I find it hard to believe that he could of climbed in through that window head first and then been able to avoid stepping on the bath. If he had stepped on it, the cover would have collapsed and he’d have fallen in the bath with a fairly loud crash and splash. That leads me to lean towards some of the other theories that he came in a different way.

The timeline given for Nina and the mother always confuses me a little. I think if I was attacked by a knife-wielding man who then just went downstairs, I would wait a long time to be sure he’d gone before heading out. Either that or they suspected he thought they were dead and were waiting for a chance to slip away. That would explain keeping as quiet as possible.

The thing that disturbs me the most is the killing of Rei. I feel the opposite about what his method of death means. To me the stabbings seem frenzied and wild, like the killer was fighting with all three. Strangling Rei though was clearly deliberate and cold and would have been a very personal way to kill someone.

The cat killings seem to me to be important. Do you have a link to the 2Chan post mentioned on the podcast? The cat killings seem to have stopped just before the murders. In 2008 there were more cat killings in Setagaya and residents were terrified it was the same person. Recently there was a spate of cat killings in Tokyo that culminated in the offender stabbing someone. So there is a pattern. I feel like based on how he must have known some detailed information about the family, together with how easy it was for him to slip in and out, he must’ve been familiar with the park and the local area.

Sorry, last point. I think it is actually not that unlikely that a family somewhere nearby are very aware that their son came home one morning with a hand injury and a strangers jacket and put two and two together. It is actually quite believable that they would cover it up rather than risk the shame on the family that would come from reporting him. Look at the Junko Furuta case. The parents of one of the boys were well aware that a girl was in their house being raped and tortured for 44 days and didn’t say a word because they were ashamed.


Well thoughts over. Thanks again for the great podcast. If you want to know more about the area, train routes etc, feel free to get in touch
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Welcome to Ws @TokyoSleuth, thank you for that awesome and informative post, looking forward to more of them!
 
Many thanks for your post, TokyoSleuth! And very kind of you to say about the podcast, so glad you enjoyed it. Apologies for the delayed response, I've been in South America. Anyhow, taking your points in turn:

*Filling the bath tub 1: I think what's weird about this is filling it with items belonging to the family. Papers, ID cards, so on. I can only assume he wanted a place to sort through it and toss what did interest him. But then that suggests he's LOOKING FOR something. And if so, that hints at a motive potentially. And if after 22 years and thousands upon thousands of TMPD man hours they haven't shared that theory, then I'm doubtful... (It's possible they don't want to. But at this stage, frankly, that would be ridiculous).

*The outfit worn by the killer: I don't find it unusual, either. Whether the year 2000 or even today. What is interesting is 1) where he bought certain things from, such as his top from M/X. E.G., despite its rarity, the police could only ever track down one or two owners. And 2) the fact that he left most of it there. It makes total sense if it's covered in blood. But on the other hand, in the dark of night, he could've just made a cursory attempt to clean that off his dark jacket, zip it up, and hurry away. He chooses not to do that, steals a sweater belonging to Mikio, and leaves his stuff there. That tells me either he didn't GAF about the cops tracing his items or he had no choice because his clothes were beyond salvage. Alternatively, as mentioned elsewhere in this thread, he's not in his right mind. Maybe a combination.

*The airman theory: I've seen the TMPD / local media blame crime on foreigners many times. But they actually didn't do that here. At least not the TMPD. If you look at their page on this crime on the TMPD website, nowhere does it mention anything about this. They actually didn't WANT Wikipedia to mention the potential DNA 'link' to a Korean (it really isn't, as covered several times throughout this thread) precisely because the science was junk. A chance of 1 in 4 Korean, 1 in 10 Chinese, and 1 in 13 Japanese -- this simply isn't evidence. There's a chance my Aunt Hilda could've been my Uncle Harry etc. The reason why the USAF theory (or son of USAF member most likely) could be credible is that there is sand from a part of the Californian desert where there is very little else beyond the USAF base. And it just seems to be a coincidence that thousands upon thousands of miles away, there is another USAF base relatively close to the crime scene. If you delete USAF, there isn't a solid explanation for it. That's not a smoking gun, as I've said many times, but it's also unexplained by the TMPD. Post-podcast, our sand specialist confirmed that there is no way the TMPD could confuse sand from Japan (such as from Miura) with sand near Edwards AB.

RE: your distances, I'm a bit confused because my maps are telling me different? From Yokota AB West Entrace to Fussa Station is like 1km (maybe 10 mins walking?) and then it's a little over an hour on public transport to Soshigaya Park. I've done that route myself and can vouch. Also, from Fussa to Ogikubo (the area I believe most likely for a first contact point between the killer in the airman theory and the Miyazawas) it's under an hour. According to the family, the Miyazawas did their shopping there and it's also the location of M/X and various other stores selling items of clothing the killer left behind. So again, another coincidence. Zama is another option, of course, one we didn't look at for time reasons in the podcast. But google is telling me it's 1 hour 20 mins from Zama to Soshigaya Park via buses and trains.

Also, re: the folding of clothes, where did you read the killer did that? I don't think that's ever been confirmed, only ever rumoured. In any case, the Chief rejected the idea and simply said his clothes were 'left' behind. The wrapping of the knife was something that the police looked at being 'Chinese' or 'Filipino', so again, I don't think that's exactly concrete (not there is anything concrete in this case except for his DNA). And as for barley tea, I have one British parent and one Spanish and I always drink it whenever I'm in Japan. So sure, it could well point to a Japanese person. But it also could well not.

The Californian Sand: Simply put, the TMPD refuse to tell us where this clue came from but also refuse to discount it. The Chief was VERY vague about it to me when he was vague about almost nothing else and very forthcoming. He made it clear he suspects the killer was Japanese until there is something more against the idea. Which is totally fair and logical. But then we are talking about a 'teenaged' killer who somehow transported a Japanese bag to the middle of nowhere in the Mojave Desert, picked up some sand, then brought it back to suburban Tokyo... by mistake? It's possible he stole the bag as I've said many times. But some of his clothes are brand new (and not cheap) so he would have to have stolen a bag (without it being reported) from someone who had been to Edwards or to the nearby desert. It's possible, of course. But like many have said, it feels a lot more likely it simply belonged to him and he left it behind like everything else. So, in short, I think the sand thing was leaked in the same way the 'mixed' DNA thing was leaked. The TMPD mention neither on their website. I have no idea why, at this point. Nor do I understand why they don't do further testing on the DNA, but that's a whole other can of worms... But in short, until proved otherwise, I do believe this is concrete evidence. FAR more concrete than BS footprint in blood evidence that the TMPD used to go to Korea with. Despite the shoes also being available in various other countries...

*Bath 2: I agree with you, the window would have been very difficult to enter the house from and the TMPD said themselves there were no fibres in the frame. Then again, they can't prove he came through the front door. That leaves the balcony which they have never mentioned. The front door for exit would've meant blood though and there was none at the door. So either he found some way of cleaning his tracks from Mikio's body to exiting the house or he left some other way. Possibly the balcony. It's maddening that 22 years after the case, the investigators can still be so unsure about something so basic.

*Timeline: We simply don't know the timeline for sure other than the TMPD say Rei was first based on him having no blood on his body (though there was a lot of blood in his room on the floor, presumably from the killer pacing around afterwards). It seems impossible the killer could've gone up the ladder to the attic to attack mother and daughter with Mikio still downstairs on the computer and him not hearing. Those wooden pull-down ladders are noisy, as well as the house in general. I think Mikio would've even heard the killer's footfalls leaving the room. I think in the darkened panic, Niina and Yasuko, who were likely asleep, simply didn't know what to do. They were both stabbed and in their shock, probably assumed that the killer leaving was because he was leaving. Not going to look for another knife. I'm not sure that speculating what makes sense while bleeding and terrified after being attacked in your own home is something that is particularly fruitful. Maybe their actions are confusing because they were confused?

Cat killings: I don't have a link to the 2chan post but I'm fairly certain it's been posted in the thread previously. It's somewhere in my research files but I don't have them to hand. The Chief seemed convinced the ones occurring at the time of the murders were NOT linked to the murders though and I'm fairly sure the guy was caught. (Given Japan's conviction rate, though, there's no certainty it was the actual culprit). But for sure, the killer would almost certainly have acted out violently in some form or another. This was part of what first made me think of a USAF airman's son -- the TMPD wouldn't have access to disciplinary files in the high school on-base etc. It's quite possible the killer did act out at school but they just simply didn't know about it. Alternatively, this simply happened in another country and it never was connected by the TMPD (or the killer simply got away that past behaviour as well as these murders). And I also agree, it's more likely the killer had some knowledge of the area. To carry out such violence in an unfamiliar area feels like a much bigger risk than doing it somewhere he knows. Then again, he took some wild risks so who knows.

Also, going back to the 2Chan post. It's worth seeking out because, although the Chief discounted it as BS basically, the poster does make an uncanny prediction. If nothing else, it's a chilling guess...

*RE: the family hiding their son's actions, hard agree. Especially if you thought he could be facing the death penalty and, as I understand it, 4 murders of this nature is the noose almost guaranteed. Of course, sometimes, people simply don't want to see the obvious. So he could've said he was attacked and picked up a sweater from the trash, who knows...

Thanks again for your great post, TS. Let me know if you have any other thoughts!
 
Thanks so much for taking the time to respond and for clearing up some of my misconceptions. It's one of the issues with the case being so old and popular that things have gotten re-reported so often certain details are skewed. It is why I was so impressed with the podcast, as you were getting information directly from the former investigator.

I may have misrepresented my thoughts on the bath. I was trying to clear up that it may not be the case that the killer ran a bath to destroy the items, but that he simply dumped them in an already filled tub. Now that probably makes no difference at all to the intention behind the act but I thought it was worth mentioning. Also that it linked to the reason why I was doubtful of a stealthy bathroom entry.

Agreed that the DNA conclusions were junk. I think actually it's more foreign media that have picked up on the 'non-Japanese DNA' element and ran with it as it adds a layer of intrigue. But the 1 in 13 statistic means nothing to me. The population of Setagaya in 2000 was 814,901. So that's almost 63,000 people in the area who may have had that gene. My Japanese partner did a DNA test for fun last year and found she has DNA from Southern Europe despite having no knowledge of any European ancestry. I am just a bit concerned that one of the first thoughts the investigator had was that this crime could not possible have been committed by someone culturally Japanese and wondered if that had affected how things were looked at in any way. Korea and California are both popular tourist destinations for Japanese middle class families.

Apologies on the distance point. I have always gone to the park via the Odakyu line and walked up from the South. I didn't realize how close the Keio line was to it. Maybe I've lived here too long but that still seems a big distance to travel. If the killer was from the base and just chose a random spot on a map that was close enough to reach in a couple of hours maybe but.....it still feels like there was at least some pre-planning involved regarding the location.

Agreed that speculation on the actions of people who are stabbed isn't too helpful. I'm just bothered by the fact that the only noise heard from the house was the ladder. I've lived in 5 different places in Japan, each one sharing a wall and each one assured to have soundproofing installed. I can still hear even the slightest raised voice clear enough to make out individual words. The only thing I can think of to explain why no alarm was raised is that they were trying to stay as quiet as possible to stay hidden. I know it sounds odd but honestly, knowing how sound travels in buildings here makes the lack of noise from the house almost the biggest mystery for me.

Keep up the great reporting! As said before, I really like your style of managing to report facts and your feelings on them while still being respectful to the family and also respecting the intelligence of your audience.
 
TokyoSleuth said:
Thanks so much for taking the time to respond and for clearing up some of my misconceptions. It's one of the issues with the case being so old and popular that things have gotten re-reported so often certain details are skewed. It is why I was so impressed with the podcast, as you were getting information directly from the former investigator.

I may have misrepresented my thoughts on the bath. I was trying to clear up that it may not be the case that the killer ran a bath to destroy the items, but that he simply dumped them in an already filled tub. Now that probably makes no difference at all to the intention behind the act but I thought it was worth mentioning. Also that it linked to the reason why I was doubtful of a stealthy bathroom entry.

Agreed that the DNA conclusions were junk. I think actually it's more foreign media that have picked up on the 'non-Japanese DNA' element and ran with it as it adds a layer of intrigue. But the 1 in 13 statistic means nothing to me. The population of Setagaya in 2000 was 814,901. So that's almost 63,000 people in the area who may have had that gene. My Japanese partner did a DNA test for fun last year and found she has DNA from Southern Europe despite having no knowledge of any European ancestry. I am just a bit concerned that one of the first thoughts the investigator had was that this crime could not possible have been committed by someone culturally Japanese and wondered if that had affected how things were looked at in any way. Korea and California are both popular tourist destinations for Japanese middle class families.

Apologies on the distance point. I have always gone to the park via the Odakyu line and walked up from the South. I didn't realize how close the Keio line was to it. Maybe I've lived here too long but that still seems a big distance to travel. If the killer was from the base and just chose a random spot on a map that was close enough to reach in a couple of hours maybe but.....it still feels like there was at least some pre-planning involved regarding the location.

Agreed that speculation on the actions of people who are stabbed isn't too helpful. I'm just bothered by the fact that the only noise heard from the house was the ladder. I've lived in 5 different places in Japan, each one sharing a wall and each one assured to have soundproofing installed. I can still hear even the slightest raised voice clear enough to make out individual words. The only thing I can think of to explain why no alarm was raised is that they were trying to stay as quiet as possible to stay hidden. I know it sounds odd but honestly, knowing how sound travels in buildings here makes the lack of noise from the house almost the biggest mystery for me.

Keep up the great reporting! As said before, I really like your style of managing to report facts and your feelings on them while still being respectful to the family and also respecting the intelligence of your audience.
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Not at all, TS. Thanks to you for your post. And yes, you're right. I had never considered the bath would already have water in it. From the looks of the photo (though blurry), it seems as if it's overflowing with stuff. But if there's actually a layer of water underneath, the surface area wouldn't actually require that much coverage.

And you're not wrong about the distance. It seems strange that the killer, if he were connected to Yokota AB, would travel an hour into Tokyo randomly and then walk from the station to the house. Yes, it was somewhat isolated. But also had 3 other houses all around it, including the family right next door. Our sound guy said that in his opinion, given the age of the house even in 2000 and the materials used, noises would have easily been heard through the walls. So yes, isolated, but also not in the middle of nowhere in a dark forest. That doesn't feel like the killer picked the house at random. And as I've said before, if it's just pure opportunity, what kind of moron assumes that a family home with lights on will be empty at 11pm at night on a Sunday? That distance, to me, only makes it more likely that the killing was specific. That's assuming the killer is actually out of Yokota AB at all. Hand on heart, I think it's actually more likely the killer was local and totally unremarkable. The USAF theory only jumps out to me for the sand, as I've said, and because the TMPD seemingly haven't touched it. It would be nice to know that they reviewed it and *then* discounted it. That's what I don't understand.

I'm totally with you on the noise. It gets on to unexplained points relating to the family next door that I can't really get into. But given the materials used in those houses, soundproofing or not, the central problem remains: if you can hear the ladder bang into place, how do you not hear any other sounds in the murder of four people?

Thanks again for your kind words, much appreciated!
 
Glad to see this thread spark back into life! Also great to see you may have a new lead!

The son of someone working at an air base is, I think, an idea a few people have had. It would certainly make a lot of sense. It does raise issues of motive and distance travelled however.

The bath lid being flimsy just reinforces my view that the killer did not enter through the bathroom window. So difficult to get in that way and Id guess basically impossible without alerting those inside. From the car onto the balcony would explain targeting Rei silently. Or through the front door as there were reports the next door neighbors, the wife's mother if I remember, hears a knock on the door that night. Blood drys. If the killer hung around for a few hours afterwards and cleaned himself up somewhat, there wouldn't be a blood trail leaving. There wasn't any blood trail leaving by any route remember. By the time the grandmother, paramedics and first responding police have trailed in and out repeatedly, any blood remnants would be long gone.

In terms of what to do with the new suspect. I would start by trying to build a bio on the guy. Friends, colleagues, social media. Try and build a profile. What was this guy like at the time, what did he wear, who and where did he hang out, would he be familiar with the park, did he skate, did he wear aftershave, what food and drink did he like, would he be able to stay out late and nobody would notice, did he hold any strong opinions or grudges, did he ever talk about violence, did he ever sustain hand injuries or need out of the ordinary medical treatment etc. As much as you can.
Just be careful when approaching people who did/still do know him. They may alert the suspect to your investigation.
 
In terms of the clothes. If he was returning to a US base then he would have to change clothes to get back in past security. Swapping his sweater and trousers would be a must. Tennis shoes can be easily washed off. You couldn't take the risk of bringing bloodied clothes into a secure military facility. You could dump them but then that takes time and could be risky. The police would likely eventually find them anyways. If you know you are going back to a base, a country within a country, then leaving the clothes becomes a bit more logical.

In terms of the suspect. One really good place to start would be to find out about the parents.
 
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There was such a large pool of men who voluntarily submitted their DNA sample, could the Japanese police use genetic genealogy on those samples? I understand the privacy rights in Japan are more conservative than in North America, but these men may consent to have their samples used that way.
 
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