ACTIVE SEARCH JAPAN - Patricia "Pattie" Wu-Murad, 60, US Citizen, on hiking trip Kumano Kodo Trail, didn't arr next stop Osaka, 10 Apr 2023

[bettyboop]

I am sure this has been mentioned but was the trail she walked the previous day carefully checked? Could she have (accidentally or purposefully) have gone back the way she came?

@vls12345 , I think you might be on to something here. What if she realized she missed one of the stamps and went back to get it and something happened! Great thought!! JMO MOO

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

Yeah, I wasn't thinking of the actual trail, they're not made along dangerous sheer drops like that.

I was thinking more that people are attracted to potential viewpoints, or shortcuts, or water, and go off trail for that reason, and a fall is why they never make it back to the trail. It is pretty regularly what has happened to a missing hiker, in cases I've followed.

JMO

Based on what I've been able to find, these trails are remarkably well-documented and marked out. The Official Guide Book for Miura-toge Pass shows all amenities, viewing points, sights to see, water springs, etc..

Those points were presumably the first places searchers looked for Pattie, and they came up empty. If she went off the trail at some random point for some inexplicable reason, the chances of finding her are probably (and sadly) equally remote.

 

[ZaZara]

@vls12345 , I think you might be on to something here. What if she realized she missed one of the stamps and went back to get it and something happened! Great thought!! JMO MOO

On the previous stage, there is only ONE location on the stamplist, namely at the Omata trailhead, at the start of that stage. Returning to that point on foot would set Pattie two days back, time she did not have. But IMO it is hard to imagine that she would have missed that stamp.

The obvious thing to do in the unlikely case that she did miss a stamp would be to leave the space on the document open, finish the trail and return by taxi or bus to the point that she missed.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I think one of the most crucial things is that Pattie was planning to meet up with friends in Totsukawa Onsen that evening. Whatever else might have been going on (missing stamps, feeling tired or ill, etc.) she would presumably have been trying to make it to Totsukawa Onsen to keep that appointment.

I've used Google's 3D maps to draw up images of the route up the mountain, and the 2D images really don't do justice to how steep this hike is.



Notably, the ruins and other sights on the route are mostly off the trail, slightly down the side of the mountain. Only by a few metres, but it's possible that if Pattie had stepped off the trail to see one of the sights, the trail runners could have passed by without seeing her. Or she might even have been in the toilet at the top of the pass. (Link)

But if something had happened to Pattie as she was off the trail seeing one of the sights, I'd still expect the SAR teams to have found her. Those places had to be the first places they looked.

 

[vls12345]

Not accidentally, I'm near 100% sure. From the guesthouse the previous day's hike is in the completely opposite direction. Blue is section 2 (Obako) and red is section 3 (Miura):

View attachment 422568

@vls12345 , I think you might be on to something here. What if she realized she missed one of the stamps and went back to get it and something happened! Great thought!! JMO MOO

I hadn't really thought about the stamps nor the deadline to meet her friends but more along the lines of her somehow having some type of blip or confusion where she headed back the way she had arrived, rather than continuing on. Basically something medical causing confusion but she knew enough to get on some trail and maybe it looked somewhat familiar (from the previous day) so that encouraged her to continue on that route?

Just speculation to add to the many possibilities.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I hadn't really thought about the stamps nor the deadline to meet her friends but more along the lines of her somehow having some type of blip or confusion where she headed back the way she had arrived, rather than continuing on. Basically something medical causing confusion but she knew enough to get on some trail and maybe it looked somewhat familiar (from the previous day) so that encouraged her to continue on that route?

Just speculation to add to the many possibilities.

The owner of the Mandokoro guesthouse is reported to have led Pattie at least part of the way to the trailhead, and pointed her in the correct direction. It's not impossible that Pattie could have become confused and gone the wrong way, but it seems like one of the less likely things to have happened.

Some kind of accident/incident on the trail is still most likely, IMO, but without evidence it's all a huge mystery.

 

[slowpoke]

I think one of the most crucial things is that Pattie was planning to meet up with friends in Totsukawa Onsen that evening. Whatever else might have been going on (missing stamps, feeling tired or ill, etc.) she would presumably have been trying to make it to Totsukawa Onsen to keep that appointment.

I must have missed that about meeting friends at Totsukawa Onsen that evening. Can you direct me to that information? Thanks.

I only recall that she was going to meet up with a friend or friends on the 16th to do the rest of the Shikoku 88 pilgrimage walk.

(link is in Japanese)
十津川不明女性の捜索続く - 家族ら来日、協力や情報を募集｜奈良新聞デジタル

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I must have missed that about meeting friends at Totsukawa Onsen that evening. Can you direct me to that information? Thanks.

I only recall that she was going to meet up with a friend or friends on the 16th to do the rest of the Shikoku 88 pilgrimage walk.

(link is in Japanese)
十津川不明女性の捜索続く - 家族ら来日、協力や情報を募集｜奈良新聞デジタル

I feel like I'm going crazy because I could have sworn it was initially said Pattie was planning to meet people at the next guesthouse. In one of the first news stories about her disappearance, Pattie's sister-in-law is quoted as saying, "She left at 7 a.m., and she was supposed... to meet up at the next hostel where she was going to stay that night. But she never showed up."

Connecticut woman missing while hiking in Japan: 'Every hour counts'

Patricia Wu-Murad was first declared missing last Monday, and the family is raising money...

www.ctinsider.com

Now I'm desperately trying to find where I read about her meeting up with someone, because I'm sure I saw it somewhere. Unless I completely misunderstood, which would be embarassing.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I must have missed that about meeting friends at Totsukawa Onsen that evening. Can you direct me to that information? Thanks.

I only recall that she was going to meet up with a friend or friends on the 16th to do the rest of the Shikoku 88 pilgrimage walk.

(link is in Japanese)
十津川不明女性の捜索続く - 家族ら来日、協力や情報を募集｜奈良新聞デジタル

A-ha, found it:

"But Murad said there is no physical proof she was on the trail. When she didn’t arrive to meet friends that night from Wethersfield, Connecticut who were in Japan, the friends notified authorities that she was missing."

Husband of Missing Storrs Hiker Speaks on Search Efforts in Japan

Patricia “Pattie” Wu-Murad, of Storrs, is missing after going hiking in Japan and the Murad family was able to convince local authorities in Totsukawa, Japan to resume the search for her on April 18. Wu-Murad went missing on Monday, April 10 while hiking the Kumano Kodo Trail in Japan. The U.S...

www.nbcconnecticut.com

 

[justtrish]

That awkward translation does not help my understanding. See BBM.

The Kumano Kodo is an 80 miles or more trail system.

I am not comfortable relying pieces of information with no clear context. I am not comfortable with making assumptions based on the same.

I realize others here may find this useful. The family could put out clearly all known facts. And they should if they want legit help. Most of this story is not a mystery, facts are known, we are just not in possession of enough facts.

All we really know is PM was seen at one guest house & never arrived at her next guest house reservation. It's not enough to be able to reach any clear conclusions.

Which brings me to a question I have asked more than once: why is having very widespread media & social media coverage so important to the family in this missing person case? IMO this should be a local, targeted search.

It's as though they think she might be anywhere in Japan. I find that odd. YMMV

MOO

I'm just reading back through this thread and wanted to comment on your question about why the widespread media is important. I think it's important because people come to Japan to do this trail and they might have seen her or know something and don't know that she is missing. They could have returned home and will see this on the news or in the media that this woman is missing. This trail is not just used by those in Japan so the chance someone from the US or another country could have been there and talked to her in the weeks prior or maybe saw her or a suspicious person while they were hiking and can report it if they now find out there is a reason to.

 

[ZaZara]

Latest update

Inside the Heartbreaking Search for an American Mom 1 Month After She Vanished in Japan - The Messenger

While he was in the area, Kirk followed the path his wife was supposed to take, keeping an eye on the terrain and considering what Pattie might have done at points along the way.

"I hiked with her many times," he explained, "so I can say, 'Oh, she would stop here and take a picture. She would stop here and take a break.' "

Given her years of experience hiking abroad and her spry athleticism, Kirk doesn't think Pattie would've had much difficulty on the trail.

Still, danger lurked. "There were some spots that if you slipped, you could get in a world of trouble," he said. "It's a long way down. It's treacherous if you fall."

SAR teams deployed helicopters and drones to scan the area. Searchers rappelled into deep crevices where she may have tumbled. The watery areas along the trail have been explored.

But there's been no sign of Pattie.

"They searched the mountain up, down and sideways," Kirk said. "And never had they searched this long and not found somebody."

At least three runners followed the same path Pattie was supposed to take on April 10. When authorities spoke to them, none reported seeing her that morning.

The team leader for Mountain Works, the SAR pros hired by Pattie's family, recently delivered a sobering assessment: "We don't even think she's on this mountain," Kirk said he was told.


BBM


More at link.

 

[kittythehare]

i wonder if she actually changed her plan and instead entered one of the temples for a spiritual retreat/ I know I would have been tempted on such a journey..?

 

[ZaZara]

I'm just reading back through this thread and wanted to comment on your question about why the widespread media is important. I think it's important because people come to Japan to do this trail and they might have seen her or know something and don't know that she is missing. They could have returned home and will see this on the news or in the media that this woman is missing. This trail is not just used by those in Japan so the chance someone from the US or another country could have been there and talked to her in the weeks prior or maybe saw her or a suspicious person while they were hiking and can report it if they now find out there is a reason to.

It cuts both ways. People walking this trail may have noticed something without being aware that it could be of importance.

Also, pilgrims (from all corners of the world) who plan to walk the Kohechi trail should be warned in advance that a female pilgrim disappeared into thin air between the start and the end of the third leg of the trail. As long as her disappearance is unexplained, hikers should be cautious and not walk alone.

I looked up the list of recent dual pilgrims, the ones who have completed both the route in Spain and part of the Kumano Kodo, and only a few walked the Kohechi trail. I read the report of one of them. He finished the Kohechi trail at the end of April and does not mention Pattie.
He does however mention that the Kohechi trail is slippery and hard. The path is narrow, the drop-offs are steep and if you fall you will probably not fall very far because the trees will stop you, but you may get severely hurt. At a few spots, the drop-off is mainly screech and that will make one tumble down to the foot of the mountain. (Yikes! he also mentions vertigo so I won't be hiking there any time soon).

He did not walk alone, and they made it till the end.

 

[Cryptic]

i wonder if she actually changed her plan and instead entered one of the temples for a spiritual retreat/ I know I would have been tempted on such a journey..?

The Catholic monasteries that I am familiar with in the U.S. have retreats for members of the general public and also have smaller "come and see" retreats for prospective new members.

But...

Whether one is a week end get awayer or a prospective joiner, one must register way in advance and there are not many retreat opportunities. In the end, too many guests can disruptive to the strictly established daily routine (often a millenia old and there for religious reasons).

I am pretty certain that Buddhist monasteries in Japan follow the same format above.

 

[Snoopster]

<snipped for focus>

The Kohechi Trail is split into four sections and on the day Pattie went missing she was on the third section. It's apparently quite common for pilgrims to only walk the final section from Totsukawa Onsen to Kumano Hongu Taisha, missing out the first three sections completely; it has been said that Pattie only decided to walk the first three sections at the last minute, because she was running ahead of schedule, so I'm presuming her original intention was also to only walk the final section.

If the trail turned out to be more tiring or difficult than Pattie anticipated, is it possible she decided not to walk the third section after all? Pattie was planning to meet with friends in Totsukawa Onsen on the night she went missing, so one way or another she had to get there.

I also wonder how common it is for pilgrims to run ahead of schedule on these trails. Most of the trails are split into clear day-by-day sections with pre-booked guesthouses at each end. You should be able to plan out exactly where you'll be on any given day. It's considered rude in Japan to walk up to a guesthouse without booking a room in advance, so it's unlikely Pattie would have veered too far off her schedule.

snipped by me.

Regarding Pattie's timing...my impression, which may very well be incorrect, was that she was running ahead of schedule based on her previous hiking locations and didn't plan to do ANY of Kohechi, but then decided to add it in. Perhaps the arrangements to meet the CT couple were made only recently. Also, is it possible the one report got the story mixed up and that it really was about meeting the CT couple in Osaka, not Totsukawa? Did the guesthouse owners report her missing immediately and then the CT couple noticed that she didn't show up in Osaka a couple of days later?
Just curious as it's easy to get conflicting reports or to misunderstand something based on a specific comment that gets passed along.

Regardless, where are you Pattie??

 

[azure]

I caution that this was a. on an island, and b. over 1100 miles as the crow flies from where Pattie went missing. But I figured that someone would post this story of an angler in Japan who was apparently killed and eaten by a bear recently, so why not me?

Bear attack on angler suspected after human head found at Japan lake

Police are searching for an angler who went missing at a lake in Japan's Hokkaido, suspecting he may have been attacked by a bear after a human head was found in the area on May 15, they said.

english.kyodonews.net

 

[ZaZara]

I caution that this was a. on an island, and b. over 1100 miles as the crow flies from where Pattie went missing. But I figured that someone would post this story of an angler in Japan who was apparently killed and eaten by a bear recently, so why not me?

Bear attack on angler suspected after human head found at Japan lake

Police are searching for an angler who went missing at a lake in Japan's Hokkaido, suspecting he may have been attacked by a bear after a human head was found in the area on May 15, they said.

english.kyodonews.net

It is always better to post a story about a person eaten by a bear than to be that person or the bear.

Count yourself lucky!

 

[annpats]

@vls12345 , I think you might be on to something here. What if she realized she missed one of the stamps and went back to get it and something happened! Great thought!! JMO MOO

It's possible, but wouldn't she have mentioned it to the Australian and the guesthouse owner at dinner?

Unless she only realised while she was on the trail. But ...too late then, surely?
It would've been a few kilometres hike back, and then she would've really been behind and not made it to her next guesthouse that night.

 

[slowpoke]

I caution that this was a. on an island, and b. over 1100 miles as the crow flies from where Pattie went missing. But I figured that someone would post this story of an angler in Japan who was apparently killed and eaten by a bear recently, so why not me?

Bear attack on angler suspected after human head found at Japan lake

Police are searching for an angler who went missing at a lake in Japan's Hokkaido, suspecting he may have been attacked by a bear after a human head was found in the area on May 15, they said.

english.kyodonews.net

Oh my.

Then there’s this account of an attack of a climber at Mt.Futago in Chichibu City, Saitama Prefecture, Japan who successfully fended off the momma bear protecting her cub.

Could it be a possibility that Pattie encountered one, which caused her to get hopelessly off trail/lost or falling while getting away from a charging bear?

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

snipped by me.

Regarding Pattie's timing...my impression, which may very well be incorrect, was that she was running ahead of schedule based on her previous hiking locations and didn't plan to do ANY of Kohechi, but then decided to add it in. Perhaps the arrangements to meet the CT couple were made only recently. Also, is it possible the one report got the story mixed up and that it really was about meeting the CT couple in Osaka, not Totsukawa? Did the guesthouse owners report her missing immediately and then the CT couple noticed that she didn't show up in Osaka a couple of days later?
Just curious as it's easy to get conflicting reports or to misunderstand something based on a specific comment that gets passed along.

Regardless, where are you Pattie??

I think you're right about the whole Kohechi Trail being a new addition to Pattie's schedule. Somehow I got three days ahead of schedule into my head, and because the Kohechi is a four-day trek, my mind filled in the gap that the fourth day must have already been planned. That was my mistake and I'm sorry for any confusion.

The article I cited, that said Pattie was meeting friends on the night she went missing, made it sound like Kirk Murad had said that. But if you're correct about the article getting the details mixed up, that would mean despite having the best intentions, I've been working from a false premise the entire time.

That's the biggest problem with this case. There still seem to be so many unknowns and so much contradictory information.

First it was reported the hostel owners reported Pattie missing when she didn't arrive. Then there was the article I cited saying two of Pattie's friends reported her missing. And there are also reports that Pattie had plans to meet up with the Australian man that night in Totsukawa Onsen, and that he was the one who raised the alarm. I believe the article @ZaZara posted is referring to that:

When Pattie didn't arrive by nightfall at a guesthouse at the end of her day-long hike, she was reported missing by a fellow traveler who knew of her plans.

That's at least three different versions of how Pattie was reported missing.