ACTIVE SEARCH JAPAN - Patricia "Pattie" Wu-Murad, 60, US Citizen, on hiking trip Kumano Kodo Trail, didn't arr next stop Osaka, 10 Apr 2023

[Interested_But_Confused]

Oh my.

Then there’s this account of an attack of a climber at Mt.Futago in Chichibu City, Saitama Prefecture, Japan who successfully fended off the momma bear protecting her cub.

Could it be a possibility that Pattie encountered one, which caused her to get hopelessly off trail/lost or falling while getting away from a charging bear?

In a previous post, I posted the link to an image on Google Maps showing a warning about a bear in the region of the bridge and trailhead. It was from 2019 so the warning may not even be there now, but there clearly have been bear sightings in the recent past. It has to be considered a possibility in the absence of any other evidence.

Kohechi Funato Bridge · Yamaten, Totsukawa, Yoshino District, Nara 637-1222, Japan

★★★★☆ · Bridge

www.google.com

 

[vls12345]

I think you're right about the whole Kohechi Trail being a new addition to Pattie's schedule. Somehow I got three days ahead of schedule into my head, and because the Kohechi is a four-day trek, my mind filled in the gap that the fourth day must have already been planned. That was my mistake and I'm sorry for any confusion.

The article I cited, that said Pattie was meeting friends on the night she went missing, made it sound like Kirk Murad had said that. But if you're correct about the article getting the details mixed up, that would mean despite having the best intentions, I've been working from a false premise the entire time.

That's the biggest problem with this case. There still seem to be so many unknowns and so much contradictory information.

First it was reported the hostel owners reported Pattie missing when she didn't arrive. Then there was the article I cited saying two of Pattie's friends reported her missing. And there are also reports that Pattie had plans to meet up with the Australian man that night in Totsukawa Onsen, and that he was the one who raised the alarm. I believe the article @ZaZara posted is referring to that:



That's at least three different versions of how Pattie was reported missing.

Could all of those people have reported her missing, independently of each other?

And perhaps people were raising the alarm in different ways? Maybe not just contacting police but maybe checking various hotels or restaurants, any type of hiking/forest service official, etc...?

Speculation but I can see how multiple people could say they raised the alarm. It might take a little while for all involved people to realize there were also others who were wondering where Pattie was.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

Could all of those people have reported her missing, independently of each other?

And perhaps people were raising the alarm in different ways? Maybe not just contacting police but maybe checking various hotels or restaurants, any type of hiking/forest service official, etc...?

Speculation but I can see how multiple people could say they raised the alarm. It might take a little while for all involved people to realize there were also others who were wondering where Pattie was.

Pattie was hiking through small, out of the way villages and towns when she went missing. As it is, it's bad enough that it took four days for her family to be informed and for serious alarm bells to start ringing.

But if, instead of just one person thinking, "I wonder where Pattie is?" there were actually numerous reports coming in from hostel owners, friends and fellow pilgrims, it would be incomprehensible to me that it took so long for local LE to find out who Pattie was and where she came from.

Even if the people who reported her missing didn't realize others had already done so, surely LE would put the pieces together and realize they were all talking about the same person.

As an aside, Pattie was supposed to meet with friends in Osaka on the 16th, by which time Kirk Murad was already in or heading to Japan. I believe a previous news article says the friends knew Pattie had gone missing, but went to the planned meeting place just in case she turned up. Of course she didn't. But as far as I know, they didn't report her missing because by that time it was already known she was missing.

 

[justtrish]

I think you're right about the whole Kohechi Trail being a new addition to Pattie's schedule. Somehow I got three days ahead of schedule into my head, and because the Kohechi is a four-day trek, my mind filled in the gap that the fourth day must have already been planned. That was my mistake and I'm sorry for any confusion.

The article I cited, that said Pattie was meeting friends on the night she went missing, made it sound like Kirk Murad had said that. But if you're correct about the article getting the details mixed up, that would mean despite having the best intentions, I've been working from a false premise the entire time.

That's the biggest problem with this case. There still seem to be so many unknowns and so much contradictory information.

First it was reported the hostel owners reported Pattie missing when she didn't arrive. Then there was the article I cited saying two of Pattie's friends reported her missing. And there are also reports that Pattie had plans to meet up with the Australian man that night in Totsukawa Onsen, and that he was the one who raised the alarm. I believe the article @ZaZara posted is referring to that:



That's at least three different versions of how Pattie was reported missing.

I think Pattie having been at the previous guesthouse with the same Australian hiker made it easier to confirm that Pattie still intended to hike that day to the next guesthouse/hostel the had the reservation for. I think it's possible all 3 things that have been reported could in part be true. If the hostel owners were concerned since she didn't check in AND the Australian hiker arrived and also conformed that he saw Pattie that morning and her intent was to hike to that location that day, then they both could have phoned the police or one of them phone them, but they both confirmed that her plan was to arrive that night. Then, I've seen that Pattie's family in the US wasn't notified for a few days due to no contact info. So her friends could have also reached out to her family to see if they had heard from her and at that time it wasn't reported to them from anyone in LE that she was missing or that they were looking for her. I recall seeing they looked for 72 hours and her family wasn't aware of that until after that was over. I think there could be some truth to each of the 3 reports of who reported her missing just because they could have reported her to different people. The hiker reporting to the hostel owners, the hostel owners reporting to police and maybe her friends reporting to her husband.. just my opinion, nothing is fact, but just possible reasons for the different statements.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I think Pattie having been at the previous guesthouse with the same Australian hiker made it easier to confirm that Pattie still intended to hike that day to the next guesthouse/hostel the had the reservation for. I think it's possible all 3 things that have been reported could in part be true. If the hostel owners were concerned since she didn't check in AND the Australian hiker arrived and also conformed that he saw Pattie that morning and her intent was to hike to that location that day, then they both could have phoned the police or one of them phone them, but they both confirmed that her plan was to arrive that night. Then, I've seen that Pattie's family in the US wasn't notified for a few days due to no contact info. So her friends could have also reached out to her family to see if they had heard from her and at that time it wasn't reported to them from anyone in LE that she was missing or that they were looking for her. I recall seeing they looked for 72 hours and her family wasn't aware of that until after that was over. I think there could be some truth to each of the 3 reports of who reported her missing just because they could have reported her to different people. The hiker reporting to the hostel owners, the hostel owners reporting to police and maybe her friends reporting to her husband.. just my opinion, nothing is fact, but just possible reasons for the different statements.

Assuming previous reports have been accurate, I believe Pattie's family were contacted by the consulate, not by friends. Only after searching for three days did the local LE report her disappearance to the relevant American authorities, who in turn reported it to Pattie's family.

 

[neesaki]

In a previous post, I posted the link to an image on Google Maps showing a warning about a bear in the region of the bridge and trailhead. It was from 2019 so the warning may not even be there now, but there clearly have been bear sightings in the recent past. It has to be considered a possibility in the absence of any other evidence.

Kohechi Funato Bridge · Yamaten, Totsukawa, Yoshino District, Nara 637-1222, Japan

★★★★☆ · Bridge

www.google.com

Hmmm. I distinctly recall questioning the dangers of bears, mountain lions, etc…. Earlier on. And was informed there are no such wild life in the area.
So…. now there is? I’m just trying to get it all straight. TIA

 

[annpats]

Hmmm. I distinctly recall questioning the dangers of bears, mountain lions, etc…. Earlier on. And was informed there are no such wild life in the area.
So…. now there is? I’m just trying to get it all straight. TIA

I think there is a chance of mountain lions or bears, but it is a very very, very slim chance a pilgrimage hiker will encounter one.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

Hmmm. I distinctly recall questioning the dangers of bears, mountain lions, etc…. Earlier on. And was informed there are no such wild life in the area.
So…. now there is? I’m just trying to get it all straight. TIA

Asian black bear - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Wikipedia page for the Asian Black Bear says that scientists estimate anywhere from 5,000-15,000 bears live on Honshū where the Kohechi Trail is located. They're not huge bears, but powerful and aggressive, particularly mothers protecting cubs and bears that have recently awoken from hibernation.

Perhaps coincidentally (or not), around February-March is when the bears would usually give birth or come out of hibernation, which is very close to the date Pattie disappeared.

Apparently the most common way for an Asian Black Bear to attack is by rearing on its hind legs and knocking you over, and then biting once you're on the ground. But if you were near the edge of a mountain when it caused you to lose your balance...

 

[annpats]

Asian black bear - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Wikipedia page for the Asian Black Bear says that scientists estimate anywhere from 5,000-15,000 bears live on Honshū where the Kohechi Trail is located. They're not huge bears, but powerful and aggressive, particularly mothers protecting cubs and bears that have recently awoken from hibernation.

Perhaps coincidentally (or not), around February-March is when the bears would usually give birth or come out of hibernation, which is very close to the date Pattie disappeared.

Apparently the most common way for an Asian Black Bear to attack is by rearing on its hind legs and knocking you over, and then biting once you're on the ground. But if you were near the edge of a mountain when it caused you to lose your balance...

Nope, I just can't see it happening.

Although I'll keep an open mind, as always, in these disappearances, but an animal attack is my least plausible theory as to how Pattie went missing.

JMO.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

Nope, I just can't see it happening.

Although I'll keep an open mind, as always, in these disappearances, but an animal attack is my least plausible theory as to how Pattie went missing.

JMO.

Oh no, I agree with you. I don't think it's very likely. The warning notice from 2019 suggests it's quite unusual for bears to be seen in the area, and that the presence of a bear at that time was worthy of note.

But in a case with no evidence at all to point in any direction... ugh, anything is a possibility.

 

[annpats]

But in a case with no evidence at all to point in any direction... ugh, anything is a possibility.

Absolutely! Never rule anything out!
It's all goes on a 'possible' list!

 

[ZaZara]

Bears leave all kinds of traces. The SAR team and the locals would have noticed those traces or even the bears.

No mentions were made.

The same goes for landslides. No landslides were observed during the time that Pattie disappeared.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I was reading the fundraising page and something jumped out to me from Part 1 of the April 23rd update. It mentions that the SAR team have told Pattie's family that most falls and lost hikers occur on the descent from Miura-toge Pass.

How many falls and lost hikers are there? How serious are the falls? Do all lost hikers get found?

Some posts earlier in the thread suggested the Japanese authorities might be trying to hide how dangerous the trail is, to avoid negatively impacting the tourist trade; we know LE only searched for Pattie for three days, and that it took weeks for Pattie's story to be reported in Japanese media.

Pattie's disappearance has become quite a big story due to the tenacity of her family, but it makes me wonder if there are other "Pattie's" whose disappearance wasn't reported.

 

[ZaZara]

I was reading the fundraising page and something jumped out to me from Part 1 of the April 23rd update. It mentions that the SAR team have told Pattie's family that most falls and lost hikers occur on the descent from Miura-toge Pass.

How many falls and lost hikers are there? How serious are the falls? Do all lost hikers get found?

Some posts earlier in the thread suggested the Japanese authorities might be trying to hide how dangerous the trail is, to avoid negatively impacting the tourist trade; we know LE only searched for Pattie for three days, and that it took weeks for Pattie's story to be reported in Japanese media.

Pattie's disappearance has become quite a big story due to the tenacity of her family, but it makes me wonder if there are other "Pattie's" whose disappearance wasn't reported.

Disappeared and not reported is a rabbit hole that you'd better not get into. How would you ever get out?

There are people, hikers, who disappear and who are never found again. In Japan and everywhere in the world. Japan also has a culture of disappearing on purpose - but that does not apply to Pattie. She had a schedule, and a plan and she remained in contact with her family. Whatever may have happened to her, IMO it had nothing to do with Pattie having a secret agenda.

However, there are non-Japanese women who disappear in Japan. The remains of some are found, others have not yet been found.
Once you dig deeper into those cases, you find that certain crimes against women go underreported in Japan, and the country is not as safe for women as it appears.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

Disappeared and not reported is a rabbit hole that you'd better not get into. How would you ever get out?

There are people, hikers, who disappear and who are never found again. In Japan and everywhere in the world. Japan also has a culture of disappearing on purpose - but that does not apply to Pattie. She had a schedule, and a plan and she remained in contact with her family. Whatever may have happened to her, IMO it had nothing to do with Pattie having a secret agenda.

However, there are non-Japanese women who disappear in Japan. The remains of some are found, others have not yet been found.
Once you dig deeper into those cases, you find that certain crimes against women go underreported in Japan, and the country is not as safe for women as it appears.

Don't worry, I wasn't going to get into the weeds. I was specifically talking about the Miura-toge Pass, which is what the SAR team were talking about when they made those comments to Pattie's family.

To me looking in from the outside, what has happened to Pattie seems very strange. But the local LE didn't treat it like a big deal until Pattie's family forced their hand. Learning that falls and missing hikers appear to be more common than it might first appear, I just wonder if incidents like this are really so unusual.

For the locals who live near the trail, this sort of thing might happen quite regularly and we just don't hear about it.

 

[annpats]

For the locals who live near the trail, this sort of thing might happen quite regularly and we just don't hear about it.

I would think if hikers were going "missing not found" regularly we'd know about it.
So many international people do these trails, that the missing people would be all over the forums and webpages - but they're not. Now, I'm sure the Japanese SAR tes do have to search for some people who get lost, but I don't think anyone has disappeared quite so out-of the-blue as Pattie.
What makes it worse, ,of course, is that she was a steady, cautious lady. Not gung ho at all.

 

[annpats]

Below is a Google screenshot from TripAdvisor, I can't link to the TripAdvisor website as I can't find the review, when I go through to it, sorry.

It is a review of guesthouse someone left that mentions she arrived late as she got lost coming down from Miura-Toge, that's the mountain Pattie would've done on the trail on the day she went missing.

Maybe Pattie got lost coming down from Miura-Toge too, but then, there's a bit lost and then there's catastrophically disappearing with no trace despite days of SAR searches.

 

[Curiousobserver]

I would think if hikers were going "missing not found" regularly we'd know about it.
So many international people do these trails, that the missing people would be all over the forums and webpages - but they're not. Now, I'm sure the Japanese SAR tes do have to search for some people who get lost, but I don't think anyone has disappeared quite so out-of the-blue as Pattie.
What makes it worse, ,of course, is that she was a steady, cautious lady. Not gung ho at all.

Rambling- Having followed a number of these on this forum and also on others, I have come to the conclusion that every SARs group should have an assigned contrarian on it- somebody who says "I know she should be here but what if she did something nobody would expect", "I'm going to go look a mile over there where it makes no sense...".

 

[neesaki]

Rambling- Having followed a number of these on this forum and also on others, I have come to the conclusion that every SARs group should have an assigned contrarian on it- somebody who says "I know she should be here but what if she did something nobody would expect", "I'm going to go look a mile over there where it makes no sense...".

Seems like so many are found much later, just outside the search area. Or an area that was supposedly already searched. With the change of seasons, they sometimes can be found, whereas before they were under cover of foliage, or blended in to the landscape.

I really hate we are talking now as though she is no longer with us. But it’s been so long.

 

[annpats]

I really hate we are talking now as though she is no longer with us. But it’s been so long.

Yes, I do think Pattie has sadly passed. For me, once someone is lost for a week in the wilderness, I do start to think that.