ACTIVE SEARCH JAPAN - Patricia "Pattie" Wu-Murad, 60, US Citizen, on hiking trip Kumano Kodo Trail, didn't arr next stop Osaka, 10 Apr 2023

[NeverPersonal]

I suspected from about page 6 or 7 on that Pattie was a victim of foul play. She's not on that mountain. That's what my gut tells me. It is so tragic and I am devastated for her sons and husband. Obviously I pray I am wrong.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

well that's what I thought but someone said the dangerous spots that are shown are not representative of the entire trail

did you watch the whole 5 hours or more?

The official guide book for the trail doesn't say this section is dangerous, whereas on other sections they do have specific warnings about narrow tracks and dangerous drops. If the trail guide doesn't consider this dangerous, I can barely imagine how bad the other parts of the trail that they DO consider dangerous must be.

I haven't watched the entire 8km road section of video (yet) but I've watched the walk over the mountain, and I find it terrifying. Practically the whole walk is on a ledge cut in the mountain side. You have mountain going up on one side and falling away on the other.

Whether before Pattie reached the trail, or after she got out of the mountains, I'm now fully on board with thinking something happened on the road, not on the mountain. The only thing I can imagine happened on the mountain is that Pattie fell, but if she had fallen I think they'd have found her by now. I've also changed my mind on the likelihood of getting lost on the mountain. There's simply nowhere to go! You either follow the carved out trail or you fall into the abyss. How do you get lost on a track that only leads forwards or backwards?!?

 

[LadyL]

The official guide book for the trail doesn't say this section is dangerous, whereas on other sections they do have specific warnings about narrow tracks and dangerous drops. If the trail guide doesn't consider this dangerous, I can barely imagine how bad the other parts of the trail that they DO consider dangerous must be.

I haven't watched the entire 8km road section of video (yet) but I've watched the walk over the mountain, and I find it terrifying. Practically the whole walk is on a ledge cut in the mountain side. You have mountain going up on one side and falling away on the other.

Whether before Pattie reached the trail, or after she got out of the mountains, I'm now fully on board with thinking something happened on the road, not on the mountain. The only thing I can imagine happened on the mountain is that Pattie fell, but if she had fallen I think they'd have found her by now. I've also changed my mind on the likelihood of getting lost on the mountain. There's simply nowhere to go! You either follow the carved out trail or you fall into the abyss. How do you get lost on a track that only leads forwards or backwards?!?

I don't think she got lost either but an accident is likely IMO. Bodies get missed all the time in searches and then when they are found, everyone wants to know how they could have been missed earlier.

 

[KooshBall]

If someone had grabbed Patricia I would think something would have been left behind in the struggle, some of her belongings, drag marks, blood, hair. I just feel it is so much more likely that she had an accident and won't be found, unless someday, someone happens to accidentally come across her body. I fear we may never have an answer, and I can't imagine the grief that would cause her family.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

What if everyone has overestimated the amount of time it would have taken Pattie to reach the top of Miura-toge Pass? The notice boards on the trail estimate 3 hours from the trailhead to the Pass; the estimate for the time it takes to complete the whole trail is 7-9 hours.

The trail runners went from the trailhead to 14km down the trail within 3 hours. They should have made it to the top of the Pass within about 45 minutes to 1 hour of setting off. Even the man in the YouTube videos was at the top of the Pass within about 1 hour 15 minutes, and he was walking briskly but not crazily fast. He completed the whole 18km in about 5 hours, much faster than the official estimates.

I've seen the Japanese documentary footage of Pattie from last year, and she also seemed to walk fairly quickly.

The trail runners set off at 8:00am and would have reached the pass by around 8:45-9:00am. Pattie set off at 7:00am, giving her almost 2 hours to reach the Pass before the trail runners would have been there--and we now know 2 hours can be plenty of time. If Pattie had reached the top of the Pass far earlier than expected, and perhaps stayed up there for a little while taking in the view or using the bathroom, I do wonder if the trail runners could have missed seeing her up there.

IMO it's far more likely that the trail runners could have missed seeing Pattie at the top of the Pass than anywhere else on the narrow trail.

 

[kittythehare]

What if everyone has overestimated the amount of time it would have taken Pattie to reach the top of Miura-toge Pass? The notice boards on the trail estimate 3 hours from the trailhead to the Pass; the estimate for the time it takes to complete the whole trail is 7-9 hours.

The trail runners went from the trailhead to 14km down the trail within 3 hours. They should have made it to the top of the Pass within about 45 minutes to 1 hour of setting off. Even the man in the YouTube videos was at the top of the Pass within about 1 hour 15 minutes, and he was walking briskly but not crazily fast. He completed the whole 18km in about 5 hours, much faster than the official estimates.

I've seen the Japanese documentary footage of Pattie from last year, and she also seemed to walk fairly quickly.

The trail runners set off at 8:00am and would have reached the pass by around 8:45-9:00am. Pattie set off at 7:00am, giving her almost 2 hours to reach the Pass before the trail runners would have been there--and we now know 2 hours can be plenty of time. If Pattie had reached the top of the Pass far earlier than expected, and perhaps stayed up there for a little while taking in the view or using the bathroom, I do wonder if the trail runners could have missed seeing her up there.

IMO it's far more likely that the trail runners could have missed seeing Pattie at the top of the Pass than anywhere else on the narrow trail.

How fast were the trail runners moving?

 

[annpats]

Thank you for telling us about the Youtube channel. I'm off to check it out!!!

I will too, this evening when I've finished work.
I'm looking forward to seeing it.

 

[imstilla.grandma]

About 10 days after Wu-Murad went missing, a man approached a solo female hiker near the trail asking if she’d go home with him to practice his English, a post reads.

“We still believe there is a possibility that Pattie’s trust in people could have made her a victim of foul play and all stories and suggestions are welcome,” the post reads. “We remain determined in our pursuit to find Pattie, to find answers.”

The Murad family forwarded the information to local police and the FBI. The hiker is willing to help with the investigation.

Family of Storrs woman missing in Japan gets tip about man near trail

STORRS, Conn. (WTNH) — An international effort to raise awareness about a Storrs woman who went missing last month while hiking in Japan has led to a tip about a man near the trail she was pl…

www.wtnh.com

 

[Snoopster]

This is what I've come up with based on the new Google Maps images.

View attachment 423521

This is Miura-guchi from where Pattie set off that morning. The red dots are the original line of Route 733, hugging close to the mountainside, but the red dots ringed in yellow are a part of the road that appears to have been bypassed by the road marked in blue. The trail is marked in green. It looks like the red/yellow part of the road is now only used by locals who live on that part of the road, and importantly, by pilgrims who have to walk down that part of the road to reach the trailhead. The bypass appears to have been there for a long time; it was already there in the images from 2013. (Link 2023 / Link 2013) If you take the bypass you go under the footbridge that leads to the trailhead, and there are two road bridges that lead into the forest. (Link) I suspect this area could get quite confusing for someone who had never been there before, and I can see why people might have trouble finding the entrance to the bridge and trailhead.

Could a person get so lost that they would disappear the way Pattie has? I doubt it, but who knows.

View attachment 423522

If we assume for the moment that Pattie did make it to the trailhead and did make it over the mountain, the winding roads around Nishinaka, where Pattie would have left the mountain trail and come back out onto the road, are also confusing. The blue dots mark the route through the trees, the red dots mark the road. At Point 1 you leave the mountain trail past an old house, coming out onto the winding mountain road. (Link) You travel down the road some distance before coming to a sign at Point 2, where you leave the road again down what appears to be quite a steep slope. (Link) You then travel through the forest until you reach Point 3, where you're back on the road again. (Link) You then walk up the road a short distance before coming to these stone steps leading back into the forest at Point 4. (Link) From there you walk through the forest before coming out for the final time onto Route 425 at Point 5 near Nishinaka. (Link)

That mountain road, and having to find so many entrances and exits through the trees, looks like it could get pretty confusing. And if foul play did occur, IMO it's somewhere that a person could be abducted from very easily.

Before I make any other comments I want to give a heartfelt tip of the hat to @Interested_But_Confused for the amazing mapping and links, not only in the particular post I'm replying to, but for all of the great info. I know this must have taken a lot of focus and time.

I found the end of the trail section as it connects/reconnects with the road to be very confusing so thank you so much for your dotted maps. That's a huge help!

I will comment on the YT link you suggested in my next post.

 

[Snoopster]

It's all signposted, but the water spring, at least, is a little way down the mountain side off the main track.

If you go to Youtube and find an account called "tobotoboaruku3432" you can search for his series of videos entitled "Kumano Kodo Kohech Travel on foot." He walked the entire Kohechi trail, but videos 9 through 16 show the Miura-toge section. It's 5+ hours of him walking the entire trail. You see everything.

To put it bluntly: images and Google Maps DO NOT tell the story. It looks insanely dangerous and I wouldn't be attempting it.

Thanks for the lead to this YT account.
For those looking for them and wanting to watch them, note that when searching the video number is 2 digits and there is no space after the word "foot".

To save you some time, on video 09, it's only late in the video that the hiker reaches that last village where Pattie was seen. At about 1:15:00 in the video the person arrives in the village and is approaching the old 2-storey school. Just past that, at 1:16:25 you can see Minshuku Mandokoro guesthouse, where Pattie stayed. At 1:24:34 in the video you come to the split in the road to the new 'bypass' to the right and the road to the trailhead to the left..and the video ends at the Miura Pass trailhead marker.

Video 10 starts at the trailhead marker.
A couple of things I noticed in video 10:
- 00:02:39 provides a look back across the Funtobashi pedestrian bridge toward the town. You can see the newer 'bypass' road descending on the left side and you can see a bright blue 'tarp' roof slightly to the right of the bridge in the image. A trail hiker would walk right past this building.
- 00:03:07 immediately after the bridge there is a slight split in the trail; one going higher (the Kohechi trail) and one going flat. The flat one is the trail that apparently had banners by it at the time that Pattie would have hiked it. Some speculated that this might have caused her to follow that incorrect trail to the left.
- at the same timestamp as above you can see a trail worker. At first I thought it was a construction worker, but not too much further along the trail (maybe another 5 minutes along) there was another woman dressed similarly (with a hardhat), sweeping and tidying the trail.
- 00:09:22 - 00:09:52 there is a largish house with a bike parked outside. as you walk along the trail and curve around it there is lots of men's laundry hanging up. So clearly someone lives here. Did they see or hear anything the day Pattie went missing?

In that first part of the trail up to miura pass I was surprised to see a few houses. How do these people get stuff into their place? They seem only accessible by foot.


That's as far as I've watched, and fewer places exist as you climb upward toward the peak. (Of note: No other hikers appear on the trail during this phase of the video.)

ETA: one more observation that I forgot to share...as the hiker stepped on the Funtobashi bridge I noticed that it was quite loud as they walked. I think it would potentially catch the attention of some people in the area (residents/workers) if the loud construction equipment wasn't operating. If someone had ill-intent, they might have seen her on the bridge above and then followed her. Having said that I still lean toward an accident. But you never know.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

How fast were the trail runners moving?

They were seen at about 8:00am entering Miura-guchi village and about three hours later were caught on CCTV at a Post Office on the other side of the mountain. I've only been able to find one Post Office with a CCTV camera, and that's in Shigesato which is about 14km from the trailhead.

14km in three hours is an average speed of just under 5km/h.

I'm assuming that on the mountain ascent they would have been slightly slower, and on the descent and road portion they would have been slightly faster. From the trailhead to the top of the Pass is 4km, so at a speed of 4-5km/h I estimate it would have taken 45 minutes to 1 hour for them to reach the Pass.

 

[kittythehare]

They were seen at about 8:00am entering Miura-guchi village and about three hours later were caught on CCTV at a Post Office on the other side of the mountain. I've only been able to find one Post Office with a CCTV camera, and that's in Shigesato which is about 14km from the trailhead.

14km in three hours is an average speed of just under 5km/h.

I'm assuming that on the mountain ascent they would have been slightly slower, and on the descent and road portion they would have been slightly faster. From the trailhead to the top of the Pass is 4km, so at a speed of 4-5km/h I estimate it would have taken 45 minutes to 1 hour for them to reach the Pass.

Thank you.
Is it therefore more likely they could not have missed her had she stepped off trail for bathroom reasons or any reason for a few minutes?

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

Before I make any other comments I want to give a heartfelt tip of the hat to @Interested_But_Confused for the amazing mapping and links, not only in the particular post I'm replying to, but for all of the great info. I know this must have taken a lot of focus and time.

I found the end of the trail section as it connects/reconnects with the road to be very confusing so thank you so much for your dotted maps. That's a huge help!

I will comment on the YT link you suggested in my next post.

You're very welcome, and thank you also for taking the time to post your notes about the trail videos. The videos really do let you see the true nature of the trail in a way that still images don't.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

Thank you.
Is it therefore more likely they could not have missed her had she stepped off trail for bathroom reasons or any reason for a few minutes?

Having watched the YT videos I only saw two obvious places where Pattie could have been "hidden" from view: the Sanju-cho Spring and the top of the Pass. There really aren't many places where you can step off the trail without falling down the mountain!

Previously, I think most of us (including Pattie's family) were working on the assumption that Pattie couldn't have reached the Pass before the trail runners did. But the man in the YT videos only took 1 hour 15 minutes to reach the Pass, so I now think it's much more likely Pattie could have already reached it by the time the trail runners got there.

Up at the top of the Pass there's a toilet and also a number of viewing and resting points. IMO it's possible Pattie could have been there and not been seen.

 

[annpats]

A couple of pages who, there was discussion about if Pattie was doing these temple trails as fun hikes, or as a spiritual thing, and how serious she may have been with it.

I came across this question by Pattie on the 12th December 2022 on the Shikoku 88 Pilgrimage Facebook page.

She is asking about where to buy Henro gear. Henro items are the items to wear when you visit the temples....a white robe, a hat, a cane, a rosary etc.

So, it seems like Pattie was deadly serious about visiting these temples and dressing the part, complete integrity.

Her post, along with a website I found about henro items is below. It's tells you what items to wear and why.

Henro supplies – Shikoku 88 Temple Pilgrimage

88shikokuhenro.jp

 

[justtrish]

Thank you.
Is it therefore more likely they could not have missed her had she stepped off trail for bathroom reasons or any reason for a few minutes?

I think talking to those she has hiked with before (I recall seeing earlier in this trip she hiked with others for some of the way) and finding out what her typical behavior was when going to the bathroom on the trail itself could be helpful. Did she go a certain distance off trail, did she look around for a specific type of area, was she concerened with being seen at all or just more free spirited about it and didn't mind going, did she try to hold until she got to an area with a bathroom if possible, etc. I hike a lot and it might sound odd to some who maybe don't hike, but knowing the behavior or preferences for those I hike with is fairly normal. We all have to go at some point and without even really discussing it, we can pick up on what others are comfortable with or not comfortable with. I myself don't much care and tend to find a spot closest to the trail that I can get and on a less traveled trail, I will even stay close enough to reach out and touch the trail. If it's a busier trail where it's more likely someone might come along and see me, I will find shrubs or something close to the trail and get behind/in there. I do not feel comfortable going too far from the trail for fear I will get turned around. Maybe that is TMI, but just thinking if those she hiked with and was comfortable with maybe they picked up on her comfort level with this and where she might have went. Was she likely to wander off trail for any reason bathroom or others? Was she an explorer and didn't mind moving away from a trail to look at scenery or something she saw?

 

[annpats]

I think talking to those she has hiked with before (I recall seeing earlier in this trip she hiked with others for some of the way) and finding out what her typical behavior was when going to the bathroom on the trail itself could be helpful. Did she go a certain distance off trail, did she look around for a specific type of area, was she concerened with being seen at all or just more free spirited about it and didn't mind going, did she try to hold until she got to an area with a bathroom if possible, etc. I hike a lot and it might sound odd to some who maybe don't hike, but knowing the behavior or preferences for those I hike with is fairly normal. We all have to go at some point and without even really discussing it, we can pick up on what others are comfortable with or not comfortable with. I myself don't much care and tend to find a spot closest to the trail that I can get and on a less traveled trail, I will even stay close enough to reach out and touch the trail. If it's a busier trail where it's more likely someone might come along and see me, I will find shrubs or something close to the trail and get behind/in there. I do not feel comfortable going too far from the trail for fear I will get turned around. Maybe that is TMI, but just thinking if those she hiked with and was comfortable with maybe they picked up on her comfort level with this and where she might have went. Was she likely to wander off trail for any reason bathroom or others? Was she an explorer and didn't mind moving away from a trail to look at scenery or something she saw?

Good thoughts. As it was mentioned a few posts back, Pattie could've reached the peak (where there is a toilet) in approx. 2 hours if she were a quick walker. A male hiker on a YouTube video who films himself hiking the whole trail did it in 1.5 hours.
Would Pattie (or any hiker) have needed to go on a bathroom break within 2 hours of leaving the guesthouse? Especially knowing there is bathroom up at the peak.
Also as I understand it (and someone correct me if I'm wrong) that there isn't much room to go 'off trail' without actually going down an embankment or going up on the sides of the mountains itself. There's not much flat terrain.

 

[annpats]

I haven't watched the entire 8km road section of video (yet) but I've watched the walk over the mountain, and I find it terrifying. Practically the whole walk is on a ledge cut in the mountain side. You have mountain going up on one side and falling away on the other.

It doesn't sound the kind of place where a bathroom break would be a good idea. But even if she went to the bathroom at the peak (which is approx. 2 hours walk from the start) then in a 7 - 8 hour hike, she would still have had to go again later on.

Where is the next official toilet located before the end of the trail? Is there one?

Would it be a case of going amongst the trees or wait until you get to the guesthouse, if you can?

 

[Cedars]

Bathroom breaks are typically quite frequent for long distance hikers because most drink a lot more water than on a non-hiking day. Any amount of dehydration makes the walk harder. People often drink lots before setting out, to reduce the amount they have to carry, so the urge can happen within an hour of setting off.

JMO

 

[Snoopster]

I think talking to those she has hiked with before (I recall seeing earlier in this trip she hiked with others for some of the way) and finding out what her typical behavior was when going to the bathroom on the trail itself could be helpful. Did she go a certain distance off trail, did she look around for a specific type of area, was she concerened with being seen at all or just more free spirited about it and didn't mind going, did she try to hold until she got to an area with a bathroom if possible, etc. I hike a lot and it might sound odd to some who maybe don't hike, but knowing the behavior or preferences for those I hike with is fairly normal. We all have to go at some point and without even really discussing it, we can pick up on what others are comfortable with or not comfortable with. I myself don't much care and tend to find a spot closest to the trail that I can get and on a less traveled trail, I will even stay close enough to reach out and touch the trail. If it's a busier trail where it's more likely someone might come along and see me, I will find shrubs or something close to the trail and get behind/in there. I do not feel comfortable going too far from the trail for fear I will get turned around. Maybe that is TMI, but just thinking if those she hiked with and was comfortable with maybe they picked up on her comfort level with this and where she might have went. Was she likely to wander off trail for any reason bathroom or others? Was she an explorer and didn't mind moving away from a trail to look at scenery or something she saw?

Yes, that would be helpful to know her behaviours.
Not only her toilet behaviours, but also her typical pace and style of hiking. Did Pattie generally drive forward at a good speed with no distractions? Or did she usually go at a slightly slower pace to take in her surroundings? Did she take many/any photos? How fast was she likely to make it to the Miura peak?

Did she typically stop to help others? or was she reticent and shy, staying to herself? Her family recently indicated that it's possible she could let her guard down to help others.