ACTIVE SEARCH JAPAN - Patricia "Pattie" Wu-Murad, 60, US Citizen, on hiking trip Kumano Kodo Trail, didn't arr next stop Osaka, 10 Apr 2023

[neesaki]

Keeping an open mind on this one.

She doesn't fit the normal lost hiker profile: ill experienced, poorly prepared, young and foolish

“The trail was rather solid and easy to understand,” he tells The Messenger. “So I got the impression that getting lost on that trail was not very likely.”

He also calls it “a strange case” and seemed skeptical about the accident theory.

“There are not many places on the Kumano Kodo trail where you can fall off the trail to the point where no one can see you,” Ohnishi, 68, explains. “Since it is a mountain, there are many trees growing there. And when a person falls off the trail, he or she often gets caught in one of the trees, and searchers can spot that. But there was no sign of that at all.”

Growing Concern That Connecticut Mom Who Disappeared in Japan Is Victim of Foul Play (Exclusive)

Patricia Wu-Murad's family, rescue workers, and locals are all baffled that no clues have emerged

themessenger.com

What a mystery.

“Hora believes it’s “quite unlikely” that Pattie was involved in an accident on the trail. “Our search so far has almost eliminated that possibility,” he says.
He now thinks that she never made it to the trail in the first place.
“At the very beginning of the search, the chances of that scenario were slim to none. However, we have done a lot of searching on the trail, and so far we haven't found any clue,” he says.
“I am beginning to think that, by process of elimination, there is a strong possibility that Ms. Patricia took a wrong turn at the trailhead.”

 

[slowpoke]

Pattie’s daughter has shared on the Help Find Pattie FB page that:

“We have been in contact with a trail runner and they have shared their tracks with us including time stamps”

(In a comment under a poster giving a suggestion)

This should be useful information.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I agree with pretty much everything that was said in the new article.

There appear to be many places on the trail where you could fall, and either be seriously injured or killed, but I don't think you'd fall so far that SAR teams wouldn't find you. Some portions of the trail appear to almost be like a switchback road, where if you fell from higher up you'd actually land on a lower part of the trail.

There also don't appear to be many places where you could go off the trail and easily get lost, and the comment about scavenger birds is a very good point.

I did find it interesting that the owner of the guesthouse said it was possible Pattie had been abducted and taken by car from the village. If such things have never happened before, why would he think it could have happened to Pattie?

 

[annpats]

I did find it interesting that the owner of the guesthouse said it was possible Pattie had been abducted and taken by car from the village. If such things have never happened before, why would he think it could have happened to Pattie?

Well, of course it's possible.....but is is likely?

Yes, it's possible, but it my opinion, not very likely.

I don't think there have been any reports of attempted kidnappings of foreigners on Japan, ,least of all in a rural pilgrimage trail area.

Any car hanging around waiting, or even a sudden random snatching would attract attention of other drivers, or even perhaps locals.....screaming, shouting, tire screeching.

And also, what would they kidnap someone for?

Unless they are going to hold someone for ransom, there seems little point in kidnapping/killing someone just for kicks.

It also doesn't fit in with Japanese and their culture. Yes, they have crime, but unless it involves Yakuza (Japanese mafia) serious crime is very rare, even more so in rural areas.

I'm of the opinion the search and rescue teams just haven't found her body yet.

It happens to many missing people who were lost in wilderness. They are often found very close-by to areas that were searched, sometimes just a hundred feet or less.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

Well, of course it's possible.....but is is likely?

Yes, it's possible, but it my opinion, not very likely.

I don't think there have been any reports of attempted kidnappings of foreigners on Japan, ,least of all in a rural pilgrimage trail area.

Any car hanging around waiting, or even a sudden random snatching would attract attention of other drivers, or even perhaps locals.....screaming, shouting, tire screeching.

And also, what would they kidnap someone for?

Unless they are going to hold someone for ransom, there seems little point in kidnapping/killing someone just for kicks.

It also doesn't fit in with Japanese and their culture. Yes, they have crime, but unless it involves Yakuza (Japanese mafia) serious crime is very rare, even more so in rural areas.

I'm of the opinion the search and rescue teams just haven't found her body yet.

It happens to many missing people who were lost in wilderness. They are often found very close-by to areas that were searched, sometimes just a hundred feet or less.

I've previously said I think it's unlikely that Pattie was abducted before she reached the trailhead, so I agree with you on that.

But my interest is nonetheless piqued by the comments from the guesthouse owner. It seems to me that a guesthouse owner, who relies on tourism for his living, would want to make the area sound as safe as possible... and yet he's saying Pattie could have been abducted before she reached the trailhead. It's probably meaningless, it's just one of those things that made me go, "Hmmmm?"

It took weeks for Pattie's disappearance to be properly reported in Japan; it may not have been reported anywhere if Pattie's family hadn't made the effort to get the word out. It is true that Japan has a low reported crime rate, but IMO the Japanese culture actually makes it more likely that certain crimes would be underreported. In a lot of ways the Japanese LE response to Pattie's disappearance backs up that opinion.

Normally I'd be one of the first to think Pattie is somewhere on the mountain and the SAR teams have missed finding her. But after watching the YT videos of the trail, I understand what the SAR teams are saying. There aren't many places where you could get lost on the trail itself, and if you fell from the trail there are only so many places you could end up. The SAR teams have gone down into the crevices and ravines and have found nothing. They've searched all the narrow points where a fall would be likely and have also found nothing.

Pattie's family posted some images a few weeks ago showing the areas they had already searched, and they had already searched a huge area. By now they have presumably searched much further. I would never discount that Pattie could still be on the mountain, but I completely understand why the SAR teams are increasingly sceptical.

 

[Curiousobserver]

What a mystery.

“Hora believes it’s “quite unlikely” that Pattie was involved in an accident on the trail. “Our search so far has almost eliminated that possibility,” he says.
He now thinks that she never made it to the trail in the first place.
“At the very beginning of the search, the chances of that scenario were slim to none. However, we have done a lot of searching on the trail, and so far we haven't found any clue,” he says.
“I am beginning to think that, by process of elimination, there is a strong possibility that Ms. Patricia took a wrong turn at the trailhead.”

Most accidents are precipitated by one simple error. The family is, I am sure, looking on the other local trails where it might be easier to get lost or have an accident.

Normally I would say that by-definition she isn't where they already looked except that finding a body, even if it is lying out in the open is remarkably difficult.

There is something off about this case to me.

 

[ZaZara]

I've previously said I think it's unlikely that Pattie was abducted before she reached the trailhead, so I agree with you on that.

But my interest is nonetheless piqued by the comments from the guesthouse owner. It seems to me that a guesthouse owner, who relies on tourism for his living, would want to make the area sound as safe as possible... and yet he's saying Pattie could have been abducted before she reached the trailhead. It's probably meaningless, it's just one of those things that made me go, "Hmmmm?"

It took weeks for Pattie's disappearance to be properly reported in Japan; it may not have been reported anywhere if Pattie's family hadn't made the effort to get the word out. It is true that Japan has a low reported crime rate, but IMO the Japanese culture actually makes it more likely that certain crimes would be underreported. In a lot of ways the Japanese LE response to Pattie's disappearance backs up that opinion.

Normally I'd be one of the first to think Pattie is somewhere on the mountain and the SAR teams have missed finding her. But after watching the YT videos of the trail, I understand what the SAR teams are saying. There aren't many places where you could get lost on the trail itself, and if you fell from the trail there are only so many places you could end up. The SAR teams have gone down into the crevices and ravines and have found nothing. They've searched all the narrow points where a fall would be likely and have also found nothing.

Pattie's family posted some images a few weeks ago showing the areas they had already searched, and they had already searched a huge area. By now they have presumably searched much further. I would never discount that Pattie could still be on the mountain, but I completely understand why the SAR teams are increasingly sceptical.

To underreported (with which I agree) I would like to add underinvestigated.
Pattie disappeared on April 10. We are now on the last day of May.
Phone data are still not available. It beggars belief that this is possible in an active investigation, but this is happening. Still no phone data! How could that happen? In Japan it can.

IMO if Pattie was taken from the road, it wasn't for ransome, but for what is politely called tea and English lessons.

I think I've mentioned this before. I follow - outside of WS - the case of a French woman who disappeared a few years ago from Nikko in the north of Japan. The description that the family offers of the district police work there makes you want to cry, and fortunately, I get the impression that LE in Pattie's case is more active.

 

[annpats]

Phone data are still not available. It beggars belief that this is possible in an active investigation, but this is happening. Still no phone data! How could that happen? In Japan it can.

I think it would take just as long if not longer in the US. Phone data takes a looooong time. As she was a US citizen with a US phone and using US app, the Japanese police may have had to go through US authorities, and Google and Apple.

 

[annpats]

I think I've mentioned this before. I follow - outside of WS - the case of a French woman who disappeared a few years ago from Nikko in the north of Japan. The description that the family offers of the district police work there makes you want to cry, and fortunately, I get the impression that LE in Pattie's case is more active.

Her name is Tiphaine Veron. There are some details below. I'm not sure if her case is on Websleuths.

Missing French woman's brother in Japan to continue search for sister

The Tochigi Prefectural Police continue investigating the case as a potential criminal incident and an accident.

www.japantimes.co.jp

 

[StillDiggin]

A message from the Help Find Pattie FB group all trail runners have come forward.
i have a question about the last photo of Pattie, who took this photo considering there was only supposed to be the unnamed Australian Pilgrim and the Inn Keeper staying that night? Yes Japanese people like photos being taken but is this usual to have your photos taken with Inn Keepers every night? Despite the Mandokoro guesthouse having only 2 bedrooms, you can sleep 6 guests as beds are separated by the Fusuma sliding doors, although only 2 pilgrims stayed that night the 9th of April.

 

[slowpoke]

A message from the Help Find Pattie FB group all trail runners have come forward.
i have a question about the last photo of Pattie, who took this photo considering there was only supposed to be the unnamed Australian Pilgrim and the Inn Keeper staying that night? Yes Japanese people like photos being taken but is this usual to have your photos taken with Inn Keepers every night? Despite the Mandokoro guesthouse having only 2 bedrooms, you can sleep 6 guests as beds are separated by the Fusuma sliding doors, although only 2 pilgrims stayed that night the 9th of April.

I believe I read the Mandokoro is run by an elderly woman and her son. So, most likely it was the son taking the photo. IMO

 

[tarabull]

RSBM...

...I think I've mentioned this before. I follow - outside of WS - the case of a French woman who disappeared a few years ago from Nikko in the north of Japan. The description that the family offers of the district police work there makes you want to cry, and fortunately, I get the impression that LE in Pattie's case is more active.

Her name is Tiphaine Veron. There are some details below. I'm not sure if her case is on Websleuths.

Missing French woman's brother in Japan to continue search for sister

The Tochigi Prefectural Police continue investigating the case as a potential criminal incident and an accident.

www.japantimes.co.jp

You bet -- Tiphaine Veron case is here:

JAPAN - Tiphaine Veron, 36, French tourist missing in Nikko, 29 Jul 2018

French woman missing in eastern Japan Tiphaine Veron, 36, was last seen on the morning of July 29 when she left her lodging house in the city of Nikko in Tochigi Prefecture, according to the police. Her suitcase was left at the inn where she was staying, and the manager called police the...

www.websleuths.com

 

[j_in_c]

I think it would take just as long if not longer in the US. Phone data takes a looooong time. As she was a US citizen with a US phone and using US app, the Japanese police may have had to go through US authorities, and Google and Apple.

I think this varies greatly based on the circumstances. Getting data from a physical device versus getting permission to locate a missing person based off cell pings are very different requests. In most places, locating a person doesn't require a warrant if the reasonable concern for the persons safety See below

Using cell phones to find missing persons pushes law

When he didn't meet her as planned, she telephoned Seattle police and reported her son...

www.seattlepi.com

It isn't clear from the information shared if the family is struggling to access data beyond last location pings. I also have no idea if an eSIM makes this more challenging since it is typically a prepaid situation and not a subscription. I would think in Japan that law enforcement can see the imei of all phones hitting a cell tower, but I do not know that ( or if there are towers in the area!). When I travel abroad or go out on a long hike, I tend to put my phone in airplane mode to conserve battery while still using GPS. I don't know what was typical for Pattie.

 

[slowpoke]

It has been quiet, with no word on what information they may have garnered from speaking to the three trail runners.

Something I read in the news is that parts of Japan has just had torrential rains and terrible flooding (Tropical Storm Mawar). If the Kumano Kodo routes and the Kohechi trail in particular was affected, it could be too dangerous right now for SAR to be out there. So it could be a reason for the search to be on hold—if it is.

When they say be on alert for landslides or swollen rivers, and that the rain has loosened the ground…well, that all sounds like very treacherous conditions.

Rains Pound Wide Areas of Japan

Then I picture Pattie out there somewhere, and can only imagine how her family must feel.

MOO

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

It has been quiet, with no word on what information they may have garnered from speaking to the three trail runners.

Something I read in the news is that parts of Japan has just had torrential rains and terrible flooding (Tropical Storm Mawar). If the Kumano Kodo routes and the Kohechi trail in particular was affected, it could be too dangerous right now for SAR to be out there. So it could be a reason for the search to be on hold—if it is.

When they say be on alert for landslides or swollen rivers, and that the rain has loosened the ground…well, that all sounds like very treacherous conditions.

Rains Pound Wide Areas of Japan

Then I picture Pattie out there somewhere, and can only imagine how her family must feel.

MOO

On the other hand, if Pattie has sadly passed away and her body is trapped somewhere up in the mountains, torrential rain, landslides and swollen rivers might be exactly what is needed to dislodge her and reveal where she is.

It's a horrible situation.

 

[StillDiggin]

Update from daughter
New update from Murphy:

On May 24 I flew to Japan to meet with our fourth wave of search and rescue specialists from the US. We managed to find a five day window with little to no rain to maximize our time before typhoon season hit. Six of the seven members had been a part of at least one or more of our previous teams. Their familiarity with the terrain and ongoing knowledge of our case allowed for a precise and efficient trip.

During our time in Japan we worked closely with Mountain Works, our local SAR team. The American team focused largely on filling in the gaps around Miura-toge pass and exploring drainages off the main trail that had yet to be covered. Simultaneously, Mountain Works spent their time covering as much new territory as possible on an alternate route north of the main trail head. Both teams were out in the field for 9+ hours per day, tirelessly covering miles upon miles of ground, and thoroughly investigating numerous possibilities to unravel the mystery surrounding my mother’s disappearance.

Meanwhile, I was able to meet with the local police and gather information from different sources. The telecommunication companies have said they are unable to track Patricia’s E-sim because it is not a Japanese number. Both my family and the prefectural police have countered asking if the telecommunication companies are unable to track any foreign SIM cards which is highly unlikely and incredibly problematic. We are still pushing for this information through the National Police and the FBI.

The Gojo police confronted the man who had invited a New York native to his home on April 20 to practice English and he has been deemed unsuspicious. It turns out he was not targeting solo female hikers, and instead was confronting any man, woman, or couple that seemingly spoke English. His alibi on April 10 was confirmed and was relatively far from the village where Patricia went missing.

We were able to get in contact with the trail runners who were running the Kohechi route on April 10 and unfortunately their detailed report did not provide any new information or suggestions as to Pattie’s whereabouts. We were also able to obtain information regarding nearby construction along the Kohechi trail and there was no known activity conducted on the day of my mother’s disappearance. At this point, the police are unable to provide any leads regarding criminal behavior but will provide the family with biweekly reports.

At the end of each day, Mountain Works would conduct debriefing sessions with the American team and me, providing detailed explanations of their daily progress and engaging in collaborative discussions to strategize for the upcoming day. Despite everyone’s dedicated efforts, at the end of our five day window we were unable to find any new leads.

On our final night, each member of the search team expressed their individual perspectives and reflections regarding our collective search efforts: This is the largest search effort the Japanese team has ever seen. One of our American members said this is the most ground he’s ever seen covered for a single case and expressed admiration for the exceptional accuracy exhibited by every group that had participated in the search. Two members from the US said based on the extensive work that had been completed, their respective organizations would not have allocated any additional resources because of how well everything was organized and covered. If we had the time, resources and financial capacity to search every trail in the area with as much depth and precision as we did this one, we would. However, the reality is all search efforts have stopped as of May 30 due to the underwhelming amount of evidence found.

As heartbreaking as it is to have come up empty handed, all of these comments are thanks to you. The amount of work we were able to accomplish would not have been possible without the unwavering support of our family, friends, community, and the remarkable individuals we encountered in Totsukawa.

Any additional funds will be set aside in the event we find new information regarding Pattie’s case. Members of Mountain Works have agreed to continue as volunteers if any new leads arise. We will no longer accept new donations on our after June 10, marking the two month anniversary of Pattie’s disappearance.

To anyone who donated even a penny to our funds, thank you. To everyone who sent myself or my family heartfelt messages along the way, thank you. To all the communities that gave my family strength during this time, thank you. To our family friends who were in Japan at the time of Pattie’s disappearance and played a pivotal role in the initial days of organizing this entire ordeal, thank you. To the local police for bringing resources outside of their jurisdiction to help aid in our search efforts, thank you. To all of our local and international volunteers, thank you. To the men and women that put everything on hold to fly out and tackle the unforgiving terrain to help find Pattie, thank you. To our extended family that worked behind the scenes running social media, getting our story out, and helping us garner support from US government officials, thank you. To Mountain Works, Hora and Yamada, for putting the most substantial amount of time out on the trail over the past 50 days, thank you. To our new friends turned family in Totsukawa, who provided support directly to myself and my family, thank you. We are deeply indebted to everyone’s kindness and generosity.

And finally, to Mom, thank you. All these people came together because of the profound influence you have had on our family and the impact you have had on so many different people around the world. In a time of chaos, thank you for reigniting everyone’s faith in humanity. Thank you for instilling in us the strength and resilience to keep moving forward each and every day without you by our side. Thank you for bringing us together with such incredible people, you have shown us the true essence of why you love these trips so much.

We love you Mama. Thank you for being you.

Help Find Pattie | New update from Murphy: | Facebook

New update from Murphy: On May 24 I flew to Japan to meet with our fourth wave of search and rescue specialists from the US. We managed to find a five day window with little to no rain to maximize...

www.facebook.com

 

[annpats]

Update from daughter
New update from Murphy: SBM The telecommunication companies have said they are unable to track Patricia’s E-sim because it is not a Japanese number. Both my family and the prefectural police have countered asking if the telecommunication companies are unable to track any foreign SIM cards which is highly unlikely and incredibly problematic. We are still pushing for this information through the National Police and the FBI.

I find that hard to believe. The phone, whether it has a US SIM card or a Japanese e-SIM is still pinging off a mast! Data is being transmitted, surely?

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I find that hard to believe. The phone, whether it has a US SIM card or a Japanese e-SIM is still pinging off a mast! Data is being transmitted, surely?

I agree. LE in numerous countries track foreign numbers all the time; I wonder if the Japanese companies mean they can't track it in the technological sense, or can't track it in the legal sense. Japan has really strict privacy laws.

If nothing else, surely the company who were providing the eSIM service would be able to track it--assuming Pattie's family are able to find out which company that was. Here in the UK you can buy an eSIM from the likes of O2 and Vodafone, among others; if Pattie's family know where she bought the eSIM, and which service provider it was for, perhaps the service provider she was using could be of more help.

Edit: Also any friends and family who tried to contact Pattie. Where do their phone records say they were connecting to? Wherever Pattie's incoming calls and messages were connecting to, her outgoing signals presumably connected the same way.

 

[slowpoke]

I agree. LE in numerous countries track foreign numbers all the time; I wonder if the Japanese companies mean they can't track it in the technological sense, or can't track it in the legal sense. Japan has really strict privacy laws.

If nothing else, surely the company who were providing the eSIM service would be able to track it--assuming Pattie's family are able to find out which company that was. Here in the UK you can buy an eSIM from the likes of O2 and Vodafone, among others; if Pattie's family know where she bought the eSIM, and which service provider it was for, perhaps the service provider she was using could be of more help.

Edit: Also any friends and family who tried to contact Pattie. Where do their phone records say they were connecting to? Wherever Pattie's incoming calls and messages were connecting to, her outgoing signals presumably connected the same way.

Seems the family learned early on what eSIM Pattie used:

From the 4-28-23 update on the G F M page:
”Phone Data: Apple does not keep last location data after a certain amount of time. We missed our window of opportunity to retrieve information from Apple since my family was unaware of her disappearance until April 14. My mother was using an Esim while traveling in Japan and we were able to login to her account to see how much data she had left (about 2GB). We were also able to determine which Japanese mobile phone companies have a contract with her Esim. We are still pushing to get this information! Another avenue we have explored is contacting Meta and Whatsapp to retrieve any location data they may have.“

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

Seems the family learned early on what eSIM Pattie used:

From the 4-28-23 update on the G F M page:
”Phone Data: Apple does not keep last location data after a certain amount of time. We missed our window of opportunity to retrieve information from Apple since my family was unaware of her disappearance until April 14. My mother was using an Esim while traveling in Japan and we were able to login to her account to see how much data she had left (about 2GB). We were also able to determine which Japanese mobile phone companies have a contract with her Esim. We are still pushing to get this information! Another avenue we have explored is contacting Meta and Whatsapp to retrieve any location data they may have.“

Thank you, I must have forgotten that.

If the eSIM was contracted to a Japanese company, then it's subject to Japanese privacy laws; but the explanation that they can't track a foreign number makes absolutely no sense. They were able to give Pattie a contract and make her phone work! It wasn't connecting to the ether, it was connecting to a phone mast and a phone network. There will be records of that.

The problem with Japan's strict privacy laws is that they'll often refuse to share information without the permission of the person who is missing...permission that is remarkably difficult to get when the person is missing.