ACTIVE SEARCH JAPAN - Patricia "Pattie" Wu-Murad, 60, US Citizen, on hiking trip Kumano Kodo Trail, didn't arr next stop Osaka, 10 Apr 2023

[Snoopster]

we are looking at an incident rather than an accident

Not sure if these are the exact words, but that is what struck me in the video.

He then goes on to give examples of what an 'incident' could be: "maybe foul play, maybe washed away in a river, maybe she did fall somewhere where they haven't found her yet".

So that doesn't imply to me that they necessarily believe it is foul play, but they certainly want to consider it. I'd keep all options on the table too. I still have a feeling that she fell somewhere.

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I presume that the searchers focused on the few particularly risky areas already so that is maybe why they are wondering whether something else could have happened to Pattie.

One other thought...the road section of that leg is very narrow and winding. Could she have been hit by a vehicle? Also, a bus goes along that route. Did they check with the bus drivers to see if they possibly saw Pattie in her red jacket walking along the road?

You can get a sense of the road section of the trail if you do a virtual walk around here:

Road 425

 

[WingsOverTX]

He then goes on to give examples of what an 'incident' could be: "maybe foul play, maybe washed away in a river, maybe she did fall somewhere where they haven't found her yet".

So that doesn't imply to me that they necessarily believe it is foul play, but they certainly want to consider it. I'd keep all options on the table too. I still have a feeling that she fell somewhere.

<modsnip: Removed random podcast>

I presume that the searchers focused on the few particularly risky areas already so that is maybe why they are wondering whether something else could have happened to Pattie.

One other thought...the road section of that leg is very narrow and winding. Could she have been hit by a vehicle? Also, a bus goes along that route. Did they check with the bus drivers to see if they possibly saw Pattie in her red jacket walking along the road?

You can get a sense of the road section of the trail if you do a virtual walk around here:

Road 425

Is the road section near her lodging for that night or at what point on the trail?

Also, what red jacket are you referencing. She had lost her orange fleece & I haven't seen a pic of her wearing a replacement.

I hope the Australian man (the only potential witness we know was on that trail) has been eliminated as a suspect in her disappearance.

MOO

 

[Traymar]

She is from Taiwan. Her husband is Caucasian.

Taiwan was a Japanese imperial possession prior to 1945. Following the end of Japanese Imperial rule, Japan and Taiwan have remained close due to pressure from China.

I would not be surprised if Japanese language lessons either in school or private are fairly common in Taiwan. In the end, she may speak Japanese, but her family does not.

Yes, there is a close connection between the two countries. I asked my son (who is studying in Taipei and who has spent time all over the island) about whether Japanese is commonly spoken and studied there. He said yes, but that it's more akin to how Americans take Spanish and French in school, and that fluency is not particularly common.

But hopefully Pattie's obvious interest in the country and her multiple visits there mean she has developed at least a serviceable command of the language - so that she could decipher directional signs or describe her plight to a potential helper or rescuer, etc.

All MOO

 

[Snoopster]

Is the road section near her lodging for that night or at what point on the trail?

Also, what red jacket are you referencing. She had lost her orange fleece & I haven't seen a pic of her wearing a replacement.

I hope the Australian man (the only potential witness we know was on that trail) has been eliminated as a suspect in her disappearance.

MOO

I think the fleece was an under-layer. She still had her jacket. In original reports it was described as red-brown, but her family confirmed in their G-F-M update that when they spoke to the folks at Mandokoro guesthouse they confirmed that her jacket was actually the pink jacket in the image below.

<modsnip: No link to image>

Regarding the google map location for the road, this was just some random spot around half way along the road portion of the trail. I had previously provided links to images of the dirt trail portion, but I wanted to give a general sense as to what the road section looked like. The road is very narrow (almost just one lane in many spots). There are guards on the side of the road in many places, but not all places and there are certainly some spots where someone could fall down a steep slope toward the river.

 

[WingsOverTX]

I am very impressed with Pattie's family. They are very strong & dedicated to finding her. It's very unfortunate there was a delay of several days before her family was alerted she didn't arrive at her April 10 stop.

There are many lessons for international wilderness/pilgrimage travelers in this event but first priority is to find this dear wife and mother.

Husband of Connecticut mom missing in Japan says search intensifying, involves Japan, US law enforcement

Patricia “Pattie” Wu-Murad was last seen on the morning of April 10.

nypost.com

Kirk said his wife is an experienced hiker and “meticulous planner” who spent months preparing for her once-in-a-lifetime journey — including daily 10- to 20-mile walks.
....
In an interview with NBC earlier this week, Kirk said his wife had twice completed the Camino de Santiago — a nearly 500-mile set of European pilgrimage routes that ends in Spain — and had also hiked extensively in Egypt and Jordan.

“She was well ready [for the Japan trip],” he told The Post.

“What our Mountain Works folks say is this is more an incident than an accident … meaning something strange happened. Meaning she went way off the trail, or she got caught up in a stream, or something.”

 

[WingsOverTX]

I think the fleece was an under-layer. She still had her jacket. In original reports it was described as red-brown, but her family confirmed in their G-F-M update that when they spoke to the folks at Mandokoro guesthouse they confirmed that her jacket was actually the pink jacket in the image below.


<modsnip: No link to image>

Regarding the google map location for the road, this was just some random spot around half way along the road portion of the trail. I had previously provided links to images of the dirt trail portion, but I wanted to give a general sense as to what the road section looked like. The road is very narrow (almost just one lane in many spots). There are guards on the side of the road in many places, but not all places and there are certainly some spots where someone could fall down a steep slope toward the river.

This is her orange fleece she reportedly lost on April 1. I haven't found a picture yet of what else she might have had with her or purchased to replace it.


SOURCE

 

[Snoopster]

This is her orange fleece she reportedly lost on April 1. I haven't found a picture yet of what else she might have had with her or purchased to replace it.

View attachment 416472
SOURCE

This is the image and colour I was thinking of when in an early report they mentioned she was wearing a red-brown jacket when she left the guesthouse. But now we know that she lost this fleece and was wearing her pink jacket.
I wonder where the info about red-brown came from?

 

[realanastasia]

“Her husband, Kirk Murad, said the family knows she was at the Mandokoro guesthouse because she signed in with her passport number and her name.

”There's a picture of her there with one of the owners of the hostel and another gentleman from Australia," Kirk Murad said. "So we know she was there: factual. After that, we have no facts. We don't know that she actually got on the trail."

He said the hostel owner told the family Wu-Murad headed off walking toward the trail about a quarter-mile in the distance.

"The more we do our research, the more there's an opportunity that she could have gone the wrong way," he said. "So we're not leaving anything to chance at this point. You know, we took things into our own hands."

Family joins search for CT woman missing in Japan: 'We took things into our own hands'

The family of Patricia "Pattie" Wu-Murad say local police have restarted their search...

www.ctinsider.com

 

[LadyL]

Here is a map, from the official source for the Kumano Kodo trails, for the section of the Kohechi trail where Pattie went missing:

http://www2.tb-kumano.jp/en/kumano-kodo/pdf/Kumano-Kodo-Kohechi-Route-Maps-Miura-toge-Pass.pdf

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This area of Japan looks spectacular. But there doesn't look like a lot of places to go off trail because it is pretty mountainous. The trail goes along the river and over mountain passes. And there don't seem to be any villages between Miura Guchi (described as having only 10 residents in the above video!) and Totsukawa.

ETA: actually I'm not sure about my commenet about 'no villages' along the route. In looking at the map above it looks like there is a trail that eventually hooks up with the main road and then the trail follows the road. There are a couple of bus stops along that section. Did Pattie cross paths with an unsavory individual along the road section?

wow that trail seems very treacherous most of the way! I wasn't expecting that at all

 

[LadyL]

There are a lot of steep drop offs, high elevations and yes, bridges! And uneven terrain (tripping hazards), as in what appears to be huge tree roots and / or rock.
I would personally not do this trail alone, especially at my age! (I’m just a few years older than Patty.)
Just curious…. woman in the video talks as though she’s alone, so who is filming her?

in the shots of her hiking she would've placed the phone down and then 'pretended' to be hiking past the camera

 

[Snoopster]

wow that trail seems very treacherous most of the way! I wasn't expecting that at all

Keep in mind that there are only a few clips of the 7-9 hour hike. Most hikers would show the most interesting and/or most 'dangerous' sections of the trail in their videos and photos. It can give a distorted understanding as to the vast bulk of the trail. Pattie's husband/daughter indicated that the trail was pretty straightforward, with much of it wooded on both sides and nowhere to fall off the trail. My reason for posting it was to show what was available online and to highlight that there are some places where you could fall off the trail.

Pattie was very experienced and an excellent planner. That reduces her risks on a solo hike but it doesn't eliminate them.
I would love to hear our hiking and SAR expert's (@RickshawFan) take on this trail.

 

[Cryptic]

Can they penetrate dense tree foliage?

"Relativity is in all things, including ability and understanding....."

Ok, the faux Zen aside, the answer to your question is very likely "yes" but with caveats:

FLIRs can penetrate dense foliage, but many things can probably effect the degree of penetration. This can then impact the ability of the FLIRs human operator to recognize what it is he is seeing. For example,

- Dense foliage in mountain terrain, the pilot cannot fly grid patterns and must change course frequently to avoid mountains. FLIRs human operator (co pilot) then cannot study scanned areas very long. Might not recognize what he or she saw on the screen.

- Dense foliage and say, cool, wet foggy conditions. FLIR still penetrates, but objects know radiate less heat. Thus, a smaller "signature". Operator then does not recognize it as a person.

 

[RickshawFan]

He then goes on to give examples of what an 'incident' could be: "maybe foul play, maybe washed away in a river, maybe she did fall somewhere where they haven't found her yet".

So that doesn't imply to me that they necessarily believe it is foul play, but they certainly want to consider it. I'd keep all options on the table too. I still have a feeling that she fell somewhere.

This person in this blog post describes what it was like for them walking this section of the trail. (They walked it in the opposite direction as Pattie.) They had a couple of scary moments due to the steep falloff in some places. One place there was a landslide and another there was a natural sharp dropoff and a green rope to grab, if needed. Their comment was that if you needed to grab the rope it wasn't going to be much help because it was very slack.

Kohechi – Day 2 – Totsukawa Onsen to Miura Guchi

In the video her husband describes the trail as mostly wooded with nowhere to fall and few places to take scenic photos. I presume that the searchers focused on the few particularly risky areas already so that is maybe why they are wondering whether something else could have happened to Pattie.

One other thought...the road section of that leg is very narrow and winding. Could she have been hit by a vehicle? Also, a bus goes along that route. Did they check with the bus drivers to see if they possibly saw Pattie in her red jacket walking along the road?

You can get a sense of the road section of the trail if you do a virtual walk around here:

Road 425

The family's current assessment of the trail is very different from the one cited in this blog journal from 6 years ago (2017), and that gives me pause about the reliability of the source. With the huge upswing in visitors and the draw of long trails internationally, countries have been putting a lot of money into backcountry upgrades, so any aged source reflecting trail terrain might very easily not be reliable.

 

[WingsOverTX]

Recent Update (truncated)

Help Find Pattie | Update from the family: | Facebook

Update from the family: First my family and I would like to express our gratitude for the outpouring of love, support and generosity we have received from everyone around the world. While we cannot...

www.facebook.com

Update from the family:

First my family and I would like to express our gratitude for the outpouring of love, support and generosity we have received from everyone around the world. While we cannot respond to all of your messages, please know we are reading them and please keep them coming. When we are in our darkest moments, your words keep our heads above water.

Police and Rescue Dogs:

As a result of our incredible friends, family, and continued support around the world, the police restarted their search on April 18 and we were able to find an organization to supply search and rescue dogs to work closely with the police:

-April 18: 17 officers, 1 dog, 1 helicopter
-April 19: 10 officers, 1 helicopter
-April 20: 10 officers, 1 dog, 1 helicopter
-April 21: 30 officers, 3 dogs, 3 helicopters
-April 22: 30 officers, 3 dogs, 3 helicopters

From the 19th to the 22nd, one or more officers have visited the Taiyo-no-yu guesthouse, where we are currently stationed, in order to gather additional information about our mother and relay the different ways they are working on her case. They have collected things such as my mom’s google history, credit card history, and information we’ve been able to collect ourselves. They will also be looking into social media posts to find anyone who may have seen my mom during her visit in Japan (arrived March 5). At this point in time, with their inability to find any leads, they are opening a parallel investigation to potential foul play whilst continuing search and rescue efforts.

With the support of the consulate based in Osaka, we have been able to put in multiple requests of the different things we have deemed to be suspicious or concerning. Up to this point, they have been able to follow up on the majority of our requests.

They have also worked with us to create and print 100 fliers (we will be requesting more) to be dispersed in public areas throughout the region. They have posted a PDF of the flier on their website:

https://www.police.pref.nara.jp/cmsfiles/contents/0000000/285/koukaitehai_R5gojou_patricia.pdf

If you or someone you know lives in Japan please send this around.

Private SAR teams:

Mountain Works, the private search and rescue group we’ve hired, has been on the trail every day since April 16th. They have been our biggest asset on the ground since we heard of Pattie’s disappearance. They have shown extensive knowledge of the terrain and are able to search in areas off the trail the police are not able to reach. During the first few days, they walked the length of the Kohechi trail and looked in high probability areas where she may have slid or fallen off the path. They also checked nearby waterfalls and streams in case she was lost or injured and found her way to a source of clean water. The majority of their search in the first few days took place on the second half of the trail. They explained, majority of fallen or lost hiker cases occur on the descent from the Miura-toge peak.

Unfortunately, they were unable to find any trace of Pattie and continued planning and strategizing with the family to explore other areas off the path. After coming up empty handed on April 20th, the team started considering lower probability areas further away from the trail itself. With their success rate, they started to worry an incident occurred as opposed to an accidental fall or injury.

Recently, we have had a substantial number of volunteers reach out to us through our social media pages, family, friends, and [email redacted] account. As a result over the past 24 hrs we have been able to add 6 additional search and rescue teams to assist in looking across a broader scope off the trail. With the number of teams we have operating out on the ground (including the police), we are hopeful we will find Pattie soon.

Family

My brother, dad, and close friend have been able to walk the length of the Miura Toge Pass of the Kohechi trail with the aid of three experienced, local guides. On April 19th, they started at the guesthouse where my mom was last seen (Mandokoro) and walked the trail leading up to the highest point. During their visit at the guesthouse, they found two pieces of paper with my mom’s handwriting. One appeared to be a list of my mom’s itinerary for the upcoming days. Another (that has been posted to social media) included messages from the people staying at the guesthouse (mom and an Australian guest). April 19th, they walked the first half of the trail, leading up to the highest peak and reported it was straightforward with very few problem areas considering Pattie’s experience.

The second day (April 20th) they returned to the peak and walked the descent all the way to the guesthouse at which my mother was supposed to stay the night of April 10th. This section of the trail appeared more advanced with slick terrain and narrow footpaths. However, they’re still under the impression it would be unlikely for her to find trouble along the path. On this day, they found a camera at a local residence that pointed directly towards the trail. We have asked the police to follow up on this and after reviewing footage, the camera led to another dead end. During the whole trek, on both days, everyone on the trail had access to cell service.
- Written by Murphy Murad, PM's daughter

 

[slowpoke]

Recent Update (truncated)
On this day, they found a camera at a local residence that pointed directly towards the trail. We have asked the police to follow up on this and after reviewing footage, the camera led to another dead end. During the whole trek, on both days, everyone on the trail had access to cell service.
- Written by Murphy Murad, PM's daughter

Above snipped for focus

So, if the camera was pointed to the trail and did not see her, does it follow Pattie did not likely make it to the second half (the descent portion) of the trail? That could narrow down the areas to search, perhaps. Hopefully, the camera captured the other guest (Australian man) who reportedly left after Pattie did and anyone else who can be sought out and questioned to ascertain what they may know.

This is so sad and puzzling.

Your family is doing everything they can to find you, Pattie.

 

[neesaki]

“Her husband, Kirk Murad, said the family knows she was at the Mandokoro guesthouse because she signed in with her passport number and her name.

”There's a picture of her there with one of the owners of the hostel and another gentleman from Australia," Kirk Murad said. "So we know she was there: factual. After that, we have no facts. We don't know that she actually got on the trail."

He said the hostel owner told the family Wu-Murad headed off walking toward the trail about a quarter-mile in the distance.

"The more we do our research, the more there's an opportunity that she could have gone the wrong way," he said. "So we're not leaving anything to chance at this point. You know, we took things into our own hands."

Family joins search for CT woman missing in Japan: 'We took things into our own hands'

The family of Patricia "Pattie" Wu-Murad say local police have restarted their search...

www.ctinsider.com

Wow. I thought the hostel owner said he walked her to the trail head. Now they’re saying it was still a 1/4 mile away?

 

[WingsOverTX]

Above snipped for focus

So, if the camera was pointed to the trail and did not see her, does it follow Pattie did not likely make it to the second half (the descent portion) of the trail? That could narrow down the areas to search, perhaps. Hopefully, the camera captured the other guest (Australian man) who reportedly left after Pattie did and anyone else who can be sought out and questioned to ascertain what they may know.

This is so sad and puzzling.

Your family is doing everything they can to find you, Pattie.

I was convinced she got on the trail. I'm having doubts now.

But an abduction or other crime seems like way outside the norm for that area? She was seeking info publicly on Facebook groups while planning her trip & may have continued sharing her journey on social media since she arrived in Japan in early March.

It would be helpful to see crime stats along the pilgrimage routes on the Kii Peninsula. Traveling alone potentially makes a woman more vulnerable in a variety of ways, unfortunately.

It is now early Monday morning in that region. Maybe the searchers will have a breakthrough soon. It's now 14 days since she was seen.
MOO

 

[neesaki]

Above snipped for focus

So, if the camera was pointed to the trail and did not see her, does it follow Pattie did not likely make it to the second half (the descent portion) of the trail? That could narrow down the areas to search, perhaps. Hopefully, the camera captured the other guest (Australian man) who reportedly left after Pattie did and anyone else who can be sought out and questioned to ascertain what they may know.

This is so sad and puzzling.

Your family is doing everything they can to find you, Pattie.

I’m beginning to think that as she wasn’t seen on the camera, that maybe she somehow took the wrong trail. Is there another trail adjacent to the one she planned to walk? Is it not marked? Do we have a photo of the trailhead and the area surrounding it? I haven’t had time to look yet, but will.

Looks like family is leaning more and more towards suspecting some type of foul play. They want to hire a PI .

https://twitter.com/x/status/1650124552125423617

 

[AmandaSkis]

7 to 9 hours of hiking is a long day, and one would reasonably expect to have to use the bathroom. On this trail, do people step off into a secluded area?

 

[Snoopster]

The family's current assessment of the trail is very different from the one cited in this blog journal from 6 years ago (2017), and that gives me pause about the reliability of the source. With the huge upswing in visitors and the draw of long trails internationally, countries have been putting a lot of money into backcountry upgrades, so any aged source reflecting trail terrain might very easily not be reliable.

Thank you for chiming in. You always bring incredible insight and knowledge on these missing hiker cases.

With the latest update from the family, it sounds like their original comments were only based on the initial part of the trail. Later they walked the latter part of the trail and admitted that it was more narrow and more slippery.
The SAR team they now have working with them sounds like they've got a handle on things and are focused on the highest risk areas and gradually spreading further afield.