JLM: When will charges come in the HG and MH cases?

[Evie Ivy Over]

I totally agree.... But I think this "Wooden tip from a cigar butt" has a more special significance to LE (and to JM).
I also note that it was not referred to as "a wooden cigar tip" or " a wooden tip from a cigar" , This tip apparently still had a portion of the tobacco product still attached.
I think that in the light of the charges of abduction, sexual assault, and attempted murder , digital penetration would be a non-factor. I believe it was a more heinous and degrading act. I could be WAAAYYYY wrong , but I think this discovery in JM's wallet was an AHA ! moment for LE.
There were plenty of other opportunities for LE to get JM DNA , such as the jug of water that was purchased at the Galveston Convenience store, the ashtray full of cigarette butts found in his sisters car, or items found in the apartment search.

These are just my opinions ~Everybody Knows That~

You know, I've been thinking about that cigar tip, and thought something was up with that, too...but now, I think this choice of DNA source material was selected because other things available prior to the arrest were items that may have belonged to someone else (i.e., he shared an apartment)--I don't think they had access to a whole lot that they could readily identify as belonging exclusively to JM.

 

[jbowman55]

Here's a little more from your link, which seems to explain that the cigar tip was not part of the leaked warrant:

"While we previously knew investigators had evidence that linked Matthew, who is also the suspect in the abduction of 18-year-old University of Virginia student Hannah Graham, to Harrington, the search warrant revelation is the first specific confirmation of that evidence.

“There was a large diffuse of stain on the shirt,” the search warrant indicated. “A DNA mixture profile was developed….on the shirt and searched against the Virginia DNA Data Bank. Search results indicated that the contributor of a foreign DNA profile, indicative of a male contributor, which was developed from a fingernail scraping of a female victim who was sexually assaulted by a male subject in a 2005 City of Fairfax, Virginia case, could not be eliminated as a contributor to the mixture profile taken from Harrington’s shirt.”

Matthew has recently been charged in connection to the 2005 sexual assault case.

Charlottesville Police then submitted a “wooden tip from a cigar butt” that Matthew had his wallet to the state crime lab.

“A DNA profile was developed from the ‘wooden tip from a cigar butt’ and could not be eliminated as a contributor to the sampling from the majority of the interior of the black t-shirt,” the search warrant continued. “The probability of randomly selecting an unrelated individual who would be included as a contributor to the DNA mixture profile is greater than one in 7.2 billion, which is approximately the world population.”

The search warrant indicated police are working with Ntelos to confirm Matthew had a working mobile phone in the Charlottesville-area the night Harrington disappeared.

What if Morgan smoked the cigar?

If you read this post carefully, there are two separate sections of information about the DNA. One section says that there is a match from a mixture profile to the DNA collected in the Fairfax case. The second section talks about the DNA from the cigar butt, saying that the DNA from the cigar butt matches the DNA that's on the majority of the interior of the Pantera t-shirt. The Fairfax DNA section doesn't refer to the cigar butt, and the cigar butt section doesn't refer directly to JM. It refers back to the mixture profile, and MH's DNA would be part of that mixture.

Besides, why would JM's DNA be on "the majority of the inside of the t-shirt?" Wouldn't that DNA most likely belong to the person who had worn the shirt?

The cigar butt's a trophy, eh? imo

 

[Film_At11]

You know, I've been thinking about that cigar tip, and thought something was up with that, too...but now, I think this choice of DNA source material was selected because other things available prior to the arrest were items that may have belonged to someone else (i.e., he shared an apartment)--I don't think they had access to a whole lot that they could readily identify as belonging exclusively to JM.

You are absolutely right about the lack of items that could be directly linked to JM, especially in a shared apartment. But unless the other occupants of the apartment were in the 275 pound range , a pair of his underwear would have sufficed. A pillowcase from his bed would yield a lot of DNA. A swabbing of his Crocs would probably be infested with DNA.
The more we learn about this case , the more questions I have !!
For instance..... Did Jesse know that he was arrested on the same Bolivar Peninsula that serial killer Dean Corll buried some of his victims ?

 

[ILOKAL]

“A DNA profile was developed from the ‘wooden tip from a cigar butt’ and could not be eliminated as a contributor to the sampling from the majority of the interior of the black t-shirt,” the search warrant continued. “

http://wtvr.com/2014/11/24/search-w...-between-jesse-matthew-and-morgan-harrington/

Oh right, thanks! I had forgotten that was the first part of the statement that said the result was one in 7.2 billion. I don't really think it matters (at all) if there is other foreign DNA present on that shirt. The mere fact that ONLY JLM is a match to the majority of the diffuse stains found and tested from the inside of the shirt to a certainty of one in 7.2 billion should seal that for ANY jury. JMO

 

[ILOKAL]

What if Morgan smoked the cigar?

If you read this post carefully, there are two separate sections of information about the DNA. One section says that there is a match from a mixture profile to the DNA collected in the Fairfax case. The second section talks about the DNA from the cigar butt, saying that the DNA from the cigar butt matches the DNA that's on the majority of the interior of the Pantera t-shirt. The Fairfax DNA section doesn't refer to the cigar butt, and the cigar butt section doesn't refer directly to JM. It refers back to the mixture profile, and MH's DNA would be part of that mixture.

Besides, why would JM's DNA be on "the majority of the inside of the t-shirt?" Wouldn't that DNA most likely belong to the person who had worn the shirt?

The cigar butt's a trophy, eh? imo

When they are speaking of the majority of the DNA from the inside of the shirt, I think that means the majority of any "foreign" DNA present, which would exclude MH's DNA. IMO

 

[ILOKAL]

You know, I've been thinking about that cigar tip, and thought something was up with that, too...but now, I think this choice of DNA source material was selected because other things available prior to the arrest were items that may have belonged to someone else (i.e., he shared an apartment)--I don't think they had access to a whole lot that they could readily identify as belonging exclusively to JM.

It seems the wooden cigar tip might have been found in his wallet after his arrest in Texas. IMO

 

[Film_At11]

The probability that another person beside Matthew could have contributed to the DNA profile on Harrington’s T-shirt is one in greater than 7.2 billion, or approximately the world’s population, the warrant states.

Does anyone remember the old joke about the defense lawyer arguing reasonable doubt vs DNA ?

He summed up his case by pointing out that the huge odds did not mean his client was the ONLY person that could be responsible, but that there was that 1 in 7.2 billion chance that ANOTHER person could be the killer....
And that person is about to walk through those doors right now!!
The lawyer felt sure that he had just demonstrated reasonable doubt because
EVERYONE in the courtroom looked over at the doors..........EXCEPT THE DEFENDANT !

 

[Evie Ivy Over]

Oh right, thanks! I had forgotten that was the first part of the statement that said the result was one in 7.2 billion. I don't really think it matters (at all) if there is other foreign DNA present on that shirt. The mere fact that ONLY JLM is a match to the majority of the diffuse stains found and tested from the inside of the shirt to a certainty of one in 7.2 billion should seal that for ANY jury. JMO

The only thing about that is that it shows JM had contact with that shirt...IMO, LE's going to need something that puts JM with MH, and a lot more evidence to convict him of murder.

 

[observation]

One of my own big concerns is that they will need to prove "custody" of that shirt. The fact that it turned up later and was left out in a public place may prove difficult even if it is JLM's DNA. Anyone have differing views?

 

[ILOKAL]

The only thing about that is that it shows JM had contact with that shirt...IMO, LE's going to need something that puts JM with MH, and a lot more evidence to convict him of murder.

BUT, that DNA of JLM's from the inside of the shirt was, more than likely, from HIS blood or HIS semen. Recall the DNA from the inside of the shirt was found in difuse "stains". What other DNA would cause those stains to be on MH's shirt?

 

[4 Free Speech]

Question on the cigar.

If someone smokes cigars of this type is it normal to keep the "tip" in your wallet for later use? Just curious. I smoke an occasional cigarette, no way would I ever put a butt in my wallet.

Are there any cigar / cigarillo smokers out there that could elaborate?

Maybe it was a "trophy" for him to keep.

 

[ILOKAL]

One of my own big concerns is that they will need to prove "custody" of that shirt. The fact that it turned up later and was left out in a public place may prove difficult even if it is JLM's DNA. Anyone have differing views?

Well, that might make for interesting discussion. Let's first remember the DNA came from difuse "stains" from inside the shirt. I'm thinking those stains were probably produced by blood or semen and the DNA has already been identified as belonging to JLM. Are you suggesting JLM's DNA might have been contained in the blood or semen of another person? How would such a scenario come to be?

 

[Conductor71]

Oh right, thanks! I had forgotten that was the first part of the statement that said the result was one in 7.2 billion. I don't really think it matters (at all) if there is other foreign DNA present on that shirt. The mere fact that ONLY JLM is a match to the majority of the diffuse stains found and tested from the inside of the shirt to a certainty of one in 7.2 billion should seal that for ANY jury. JMO

Are there any other DNA nerds out there? Those billionth and trillionth probabilities depend on potential exclusionary data which we are not privvy to. We are only seeing data supporting "guilt". Why not show us just how many loci had three or more types?

I think the foreign matter does "matter". How could a mixed DNA profile from a shirt that went missing for two months then was found outside on a busy college campus corner near multiple student residences so easily produce a single source pure enough to match JM's buccal swab? They both have the same 1 in 72 billion random probability?

The article states that the profile is mixed and concludes that JM cannot be excluded as a possible contributor; not as the sole source of the foreign DNA, right? The article only discusses to a match level of determining the sex/gender between the shirt and the Fairfax sample. They state it is indicative of a male. That would be about 49% of the adults in Virginia. Maybe I am totally not getting this? How could that 1 in 72 billion random match then be valid?

Also, in 2012 the FBI ran more tests and concluded that the Fairfax DNA likely was of a person with more recent African ancestry. Why is that not an established contributing factor between the shirt and fingernail?

The most curious aspect is why isn't the sample from the cigar tip the point of analysis between the shirt and the fingernail scraping? Or the official buccal swab? They just wanted the buccal swab to establish a link or probable cause?


(Note: this is where I was headed before with DNA questions. My initial thoughts or notes got posted instead.)

 

[4 Free Speech]

Either way, blood semen, urine, sweat, hair.. dna would reveal that JLM definitely had contact with MH's shirt.
JLM was also the last person seen with HG.
JLM is also forensically liked to the 2005 abduction and sexual assault.

What is the forensic link to Hannah Graham?

I am catching up on the thread so don't be too hard on me.

 

[4 Free Speech]

This is so hard to write, but I just read that some serial rapists, like to urinate on their victims when they are done. Perhaps that's what they found on her shirt.

Paul Bernardo urinated on his victims after he raped them.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...pist+urinate+victims?&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&&ct=clnk

I am sure LE is testing the soil around AF and 3193 for DNA via urinalysis? Likely JLM had to pee after all that time in the woods. Just thinking out loud. argh!

http://www.forensicdnacenter.com/forensic-faqs.html

Can urine be used for DNA? See above.

 

[bestill]

I think the cell phone records the are seeking will indicate where JM was that night.

 

[ILOKAL]

This is so hard to write, but I just read that some serial rapists, like to urinate on their victims when they are done. Perhaps that's what they found on her shirt.

Paul Bernardo urinated on his victims after he raped them.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...pist+urinate+victims?&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&&ct=clnk

I am sure LE is testing the soil around AF and 3193 for DNA via urinalysis? Likely JLM had to pee after all that time in the woods. Just thinking out loud. argh!

Urine doesn't contain DNA, except in the rare instance that the urine contains epitheal cells. Here are the main sources for DNA:

http://www.biology.arizona.edu/human_bio/problem_sets/dna_forensics_2/06t.html

 

[Film_At11]

Question on the cigar.

If someone smokes cigars of this type is it normal to keep the "tip" in your wallet for later use? Just curious. I smoke an occasional cigarette, no way would I ever put a butt in my wallet.

Are there any cigar / cigarillo smokers out there that could elaborate?

Maybe it was a "trophy" for him to keep.

One reason to keep a wooden cigar tip would be for smoking "a Blunt" , a large Marijuana cigarette (cigar) rolled in a tobacco leaf. The tip makes it easier to smoke as it burns down toward the end. Blunts are generally shared between two (or more) people , otherwise the weed is going up in smoke while you are coughing your fool head off between tokes.

But ... they are not expensive ,or hard to find, ....I think it would be a very frugal person that would save one in his wallet.
JM does not strike me as that type of person .. He seemed to be very generous when buying drinks for several people that night , and women could always count on him for a free cab ride !

No, I still think this particular tip has some significance.

Just My Opinion ~ Everybody Knows That~

 

[otto]

Either way, blood semen, urine, sweat, hair.. dna would reveal that JLM definitely had contact with MH's shirt.
JLM was also the last person seen with HG.
JLM is also forensically liked to the 2005 abduction and sexual assault.

What is the forensic link to Hannah Graham?

I am catching up on the thread so don't be too hard on me.

I haven't kept up with the discussion ... was there new information that the shirt that belonged to Morgan can be connected to Jesse Matthew?

 

[Evie Ivy Over]

**Snipped for response

The article states that the profile is mixed and marks very limited matching alleles and concludes that JM cannot be excluded as a possible contributor; not as the sole source of the foreign DNA, right? The article only discusses to a match level of determining the sex/gender between the shirt and the Fairfax sample. They state it is indicative of a male. That would be about 49% of the adults in Virginia. Maybe I am totally not getting this? How could that 1 in 72 billion random match then be valid?

Also, in 2012 the FBI ran more tests and concluded that the Fairfax DNA likely was of a person with more recent African ancestry. Why is that not an established contributing factor between the shirt and fingernail?

The most curious aspect is why isn't the sample from the cigar tip the point of analysis between the shirt and the fingernail scraping? Or the official buccal swab? They just wanted the buccal swab to establish a link or probable cause?

Honestly, I think the verbiage in the article is a little confusing, but we have no choice but to take it at face value. I wanted to dissect these two paragraphs to try to make more sense of a couple of these points:

“There was a large diffuse of stain on the shirt,” the search warrant indicated."

(This means--from a link posted earlier--a weak DNA sample.)

Step 1: “A DNA mixture profile was developed on the shirt"

Step 2: ...and searched against the Virginia DNA Data Bank. Search results indicated that...

(Description of the Fairfax sample in the Data Bank "the contributor of a foreign DNA profile, indicative of a male contributor, which was developed from a fingernail scraping of a female victim who was sexually assaulted by a male subject in a 2005 City of Fairfax, Virginia case

(They seem to go out of their way to desribe the DNA as from a male individual.)

Result: "...could not be eliminated as a contributor to the mixture profile taken from Harrington’s shirt.”


So the first paragraph detailed how they came up with the forensic match between MH and Fairfax. Then they go on to tell how they matched JM to MH's shirt:


“A DNA profile was developed from the ‘wooden tip from a cigar butt’ and could not be eliminated as a contributor to the sampling from the majority of the interior of the black t-shirt,” the search warrant continued."


It's confusing to me that the fingernail scraping even needs to be included in the MH investigation--if they have the profile from the shirt, and they have JM's buccal swab, what's the need to bring the Fairfax DNA analysis into the picture? Does that mean they can't independently match his DNA to the shirt? And how does JM's DNA get on the inside of the shirt? Did the stain settle there over the month or so before the shirt was found? Very interesting, and perplexing...maybe if we knew everything, it wouldn't be?