I haven't finished reading the article, and I'm only on page 7 of the thread, but I see a few interesting things already.
The particular form of PTSD Ashley was suffering from included severe paranoia, and I can see why Tom used the word 'psychotic' in an earlier post now, because I was wondering about that word being chosen.
I'm wondering if the use of the app to cover the phone number of that call Ashley made might be consistent with a relapse in Ashley's prior paranoia?
I believe that the point of 'psychotic' is that it's not logical to anyone but the person suffering from it. And although Tom feels that Ashley would never want to miss big occasions with her children, in her mind she might be protecting them by avoiding them, and she might also avoid her parents and brothers and others she cares deeply about for the same reason. From what I'm reading, Ashley left in the apartment anything that could electronically trace to her (phone, debit cards) but she may have taken her door key? Again, the choice of leaving these items at home could be consistent with paranoia over being tracked down. It's dangerous to play amateur psychologist, obviously, but could that be a sign that she wanted subconsciously to leave open the avenue of returning some day?
Inconsistent with that theory is that Ashley appears to have stayed in the Ogden area for a few days at least. But could it have been an 'in development' phase and maybe that letter did switch something in her head, and in some way this kind of paranoia might have reappeared as a protection mechanism, so that instead of worrying about not seeing the children, the illness has turned it into she needs to stay away from them for their protection from the monsters out there (whatever the monsters are for Ashley).
Tom said Ashley left the Xanax, but didn't mention the mood-enhancing meds...is that because they couldn't be found in the apartment? But, even if Ashley took them with her (and it seems unlikely to take them out for a run?) there is still the point about refilling the prescription. What I just said about it not making sense to take the meds out for the run, the dog, the phone, and the doorkey are really the only things that make sense to me to take for the run...even if Ashley was dressed for a run, could that have been a cover? What was she wearing on the sightings after the run? If there's video of Ashley at the post office why isn't there a rough idea of what kind of clothing she was wearing in it?