LA - Mickey Shunick, 21, Lafayette; 19 May 2012 - #21

[chicken fried]

The basic rule of buoyancy is that an object will sink if it weighs more that the water it displaces (i.e. if it is heavier, cubic centimeter per cubic centimeter than water). The only bicycle I can imagine floating would be on with an extremely light frame and wide balloon tires. Mickey's bike (a schwinn Madison) could be described as a fairly lightweight bike with mid-range tires (700 X 25) I don't think that would float but I'm not positive. If it was put into the water and did drift downstream, what are the odds that it would drift onto a bank that is accessible by vehicle when most of that stretch of river appears to have no road access? I do believe it was thrown into the water where it was found.
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[snip]

Then I would ask, what are the chances that ANYTHING would wash up at the bridge? Do you truly think that people stood on the bank and threw all kind of trash in? Or is there a chance that that's a natural catch-pointm especially with all the underwater pilings, etc.?

 

[heidisams]

Been following the case since the beginning... It's an emotional one, for sure!!! I know a popular theory related to the bike is that it was disposed of soon after MS is abducted (mo is abduction), and the driver exited under the bridge and placed her bike in that location. My problem with this theory is wouldn't he have MS at that time? Assuming this person a predator, he more than likely would have her with him for a while (trying to put it delicately)... And from what we've learned about Mickey, she would've taken that opportunity to get out if she was able... Statistically, these perps act alone. I just don't think she would've sat passively while he got rid of her bike, I don't think it was a dui/cover up, I don't think there was more than one... So, what gives? If the above theory is correct, my opinion is she must have been incapacitated somehow (bump and taser)... Hopefully since her story is slowing down a bit, le might let out some more info to rejuvenate interest... Fingers crossed for Mickey!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[LSUFanGirl]

I'm really starting to become sold on the idea that Shunick's disappearance was a lot more sedate than the dramatic smash-and-grab most people initially imagined. Three weeks later, and no one has come forward with any evidence of the sound and fury that would likely involve.

I can't imagine that a woman who would refuse a ride from a friend would suddenly hop in the car with some random, middle-aged man offering an unsolicited ride. But I can imagine a few scenarios in which continuing her ride became impossible, and a ride might suddenly start to sound appealing. Maybe the person offering the ride was the sort of character most people don't imagine to be dangerous. Or maybe she had no choice at all.

He could have been young and good-looking or someone she'd met at some point before. He could have even met her in the bar earlier that night. He could have slipped something in her drink (hence, she didn't feel good according to Brettly). I had a friend whose drink was drugged before and she felt like she was going to throw up and drifted in and our of consciousness.
If that was done to Mickey, she may have fought it by getting Taco Bell and figuring it was just something she ate/drank. She wouldn't have been 100% of her normal self though.

 

[krisstanamus]

Like someone in authority?

correct

 

[CajunCoDe]

La Grange, Georgia. That is on I-85. About an 8 hour drive.

But didn't it happen on the 22nd? And wouldn't one take I10 East to get to GA?

Not convinced, but it's interesting.

 

[JurysOut]

If Mickey rode that route so frequently <modsnip> someone who lived in a neighborhood that she passed through. Perhaps this person became obsessed with her, and planned and waited for just the right opportunity to create a ruse that would lure her off of her bike and into their home or building. The damage to the bike could have been caused during the attempt to dispose of the bike. I remember comments on earlier threads about how an abduction or accident would probably be overheard in a neighborhood, but perhaps the crime itself happened indoors. IDK It's hard to imagine that 1 person could abduct a girl and her bike so easily off the street. And, if there were 2 perps, you think they would have done a better job of disposing of the bike. MOO

I wonder if she mentioned any if this to friends or family.

<modsnip>

Chicken Fried - have you spoken to LE about MS chatting with people on her usual route?

Sorry if I missed something. If I don't work, they don't pay me. It's totally bassackwards.

 

[chicken fried]

The basic rule of buoyancy is that an object will sink if it weighs more that the water it displaces (i.e. if it is heavier, cubic centimeter per cubic centimeter than water). The only bicycle I can imagine floating would be on with an extremely light frame and wide balloon tires. Mickey's bike (a schwinn Madison) could be described as a fairly lightweight bike with mid-range tires (700 X 25) I don't think that would float but I'm not positive. If it was put into the water and did drift downstream, what are the odds that it would drift onto a bank that is accessible by vehicle when most of that stretch of river appears to have no road access? I do believe it was thrown into the water where it was found.

A human body is more difficult to tell. People with low body fat sink while people with more body fat will float but there are many factors. Generally, unless someone drowns, a body will float at first because the air in their lungs will tend to keep them buoyant. As water seeps into their lung they may sink. (Because drowning victims will have water in their lungs, they may sink right away.

After 24 hours (more or less depending on water temperature) decay in the victim’s stomach will cause gas to form expanding the abdomen and usually cause them to float. Eventually further decay will permit this gas to leak out and the body may sink again.
In streams, the current is almost always fastest in the center. Along the banks where water is shallow and there are irregularities in the bank, friction is generated and water tends to slow. In addition, irregular features of the bank and any debris that might collect will tend to "snag" objects floating by. Because of this, a body placed in a stream at the bank is unlikely to drift into the current and be carried away a significant distance. Getting the body into the main current by dropping it from a bridge or from a boat would be only way to get the body to drift any distance. I think that if the body were put in at the same area as the bike, it would have turned up a very short distance downstream.

You just stated the physics behind why I think the curve made the bike drift.

And regarding the other, he thought all this up went to all this effort... but didn't think to weight it down?

 

[karennoh]

So, say it's not local and all of these blond young women that seem to be disappearing (see link: http://pibillwarner.wordpress.com/2012/06/03/the-internet-is-forever-did-criminal-minds-episode-plot-a-roadmap-for-abduction-of-petite-blonde-females-like-mickey-shunick-and-lauren-spierer/ ) are related cases by someone who travels a lot.

Is it possible to think that someone might want to get rid of their white truck now that it has possible connections to multip




le abductions? "Police investigate vehicle fire
13 days ago - Police are investigating a vehicle fire after finding a white truck fully engulfed in flames in the 300 block of Bailey’s Way Sunday night. Police were unable to locate the owner of the vehicle, according to a report."

http://www.lagrangenews.com/view/full_story/18695988/article-Police-investigate-vehicle-fire?

Just thinking out loud.

And this dosnt catch anyones attention ?!?!?


Wow and this does catch anyones attention ?!?!?!?

 

[LSUFanGirl]

I'm sure it's fine during the day.... the night would be different.

You are probably right. I am paranoid about that area. Add to that, I'm 8 months pregnant and have a 4 yr old that wouldn't likely make it easy to take any pictures. With my luck, I'd take pictures, then my car wouldn't start.

 

[chicken fried]

If Mickey rode that route so frequently <modsnip> someone who lived in a neighborhood that she passed through. Perhaps this person became obsessed with her, and planned and waited for just the right opportunity to create a ruse that would lure her off of her bike and into their home or building. The damage to the bike could have been caused during the attempt to dispose of the bike. I remember comments on earlier threads about how an abduction or accident would probably be overheard in a neighborhood, but perhaps the crime itself happened indoors. IDK It's hard to imagine that 1 person could abduct a girl and her bike so easily off the street. And, if there were 2 perps, you think they would have done a better job of disposing of the bike. MOO

I agree with you 100% Your thoughts are mine. It was someone on her route who planned this. Find an isolated concentration of population on her route at 2 a.m. and you'll get closer to the perp. Not too many choices.

 

[StreetcarRider]

If Mickey rode that route so frequently that she was speaking to a security guard at the hospital, perhaps there was someone else that she spoke to on a regular basis as she was riding. It could have been a security guard at another building, or someone who lived in a neighborhood that she passed through. Perhaps this person became obsessed with her, and planned and waited for just the right opportunity to create a ruse that would lure her off of her bike and into their home or building. The damage to the bike could have been caused during the attempt to dispose of the bike. I remember comments on earlier threads about how an abduction or accident would probably be overheard in a neighborhood, but perhaps the crime itself happened indoors. IDK It's hard to imagine that 1 person could abduct a girl and her bike so easily off the street. And, if there were 2 perps, you think they would have done a better job of disposing of the bike. MOO

This is also the way I'm leaning, minus the idea of obsession/stalking. It seems like Shunick followed her route at unpredictable times, and would require any potential stalkers to sit around, waiting for hours for something that may or may not happen. Stalkers are usually a little more proactive than that, and would probably have followed her during more routine patterns (home, work, school, etc).

Honestly, I don't wonder if people are projecting a lot of ideas about her disappearance because of Shunick's age and gender. 50 year-old men go missing and there's not much speculation about whether or not they were snatched by a lovesick admirer- even though that's sometimes the case. While it's obviously a possibility with Shunick (and really, ANYTHING is possible), it's certainly not a given.

 

[JurysOut]

I agree with you 100% Your thoughts are mine. It was someone on her route who planned this. Find an isolated concentration of population on her route at 2 a.m. and you'll get closer to the perp. Not too many choices.

And what are they, for those of us far away?

 

[Isabelle]

I just saw a poster for a missing 15 year old girl in baton rouge... Last seen 05/25. I do not see a forum for her. Has anyone heard of this? Patience Clayton is her name.

No, am in BR. When did she go missing? I did find two runaways living in an empty house two doors down a few months ago. Tip line was a joke!

 

[Galbug]

I am very interested in garages where Mickey went missing. Specifically garages on houses, not parking garages for corporate/businesses.

I am interested in metal buildings in that area. I have looked around but nothing has jumped out @ me.

 

[crzimmer]

The basic rule of buoyancy is that an object will sink if it weighs more that the water it displaces (i.e. if it is heavier, cubic centimeter per cubic centimeter than water). The only bicycle I can imagine floating would be on with an extremely light frame and wide balloon tires. Mickey's bike (a schwinn Madison) could be described as a fairly lightweight bike with mid-range tires (700 X 25) I don't think that would float but I'm not positive. If it was put into the water and did drift downstream, what are the odds that it would drift onto a bank that is accessible by vehicle when most of that stretch of river appears to have no road access? I do believe it was thrown into the water where it was found.

The bike would not have to float, but merely tumble in the current. The river there can be very swift. The bike is heavy, but the weight is distributed across a large frame. Moreover, the spoked wheels may have slowed the current sufficiently that they could have acted like fins pushing the bike downstream. I agree, the most parsimonius explanation is that someone tossed it off the bank from the I-10 exit. But, it is not like the police must commit 100% to any single theory. It would quite reasonable, in my opinion, to dispatch a few detectives to the area to talk to residents and check on security video. I think it would be foolish to completely disregard this theory.

 

[Isabelle]

http://www.missingkids.com/missingk...en_US&orgPrefix=NCMC&caseNum=1195486&seqNum=1

I'm sorry, but the only reason my 15 year old would have a pierced navel would be because I'd have a leash attached to it!

 

[chicken fried]

I wonder if she mentioned any if this to friends or family.

<modsnip>

Would she have mentioned the security guard, for instance?

Chicken Fried - have you spoken to LE about MS chatting with people on her usual route?

Sorry if I missed something. If I don't work, they don't pay me. It's totally bassackwards.

I think they're checking it all... I felt a lot better after talking to the PI. Of course, it's his job not to give out info, but my specific theories are ones already being checked, and when I brought up info, he said they knew about it.

They're working it. Let's hope they can bring her home alive!.... or at least bring her home.

 

[BayouBelle_LA]

I am interested in metal buildings in that area. I have looked around but nothing has jumped out @ me.

Why metal buildings?

 

[katydid23]

Usually, when a young woman goes missing, I suspect an ex or a stalker type abduction. But in this case, seeing as it was 2 am, and she was traveling alone, and not on a predetermined ride home, I am leaning more towards an 'opportunity' bump and grab type of crime. It may have been someone who was familiar with her, like a local employee, or a transient, or an acquaintance, who saw the perfect chance to grab her. I think it was a perfect storm of circumstances, that somehow sealed her fate. :rose:

 

[JurysOut]

This is also the way I'm leaning, minus the idea of obsession/stalking. It seems like Shunick followed her route at unpredictable times, and would require any potential stalkers to sit around, waiting for hours for something that may or may not happen. Stalkers are usually a little more proactive than that, and would probably have followed her during more routine patterns (home, work, school, etc).

<snip>.

My stalker would wait forever if he thought he could hurt me at the end of the wait.

That's not supposition. This man has told me these things. And many more.

If MS 'never slept at other people's houses', he had maybe 6 - 8 hours maximum wait time. She was going to go home, alone, on her bike. Could have been midnight, could have been 5:00, but he'd have been there.

I'm using the masculine pronoun, but it could be a woman.

In my personal, direct, first person experience, waiting means nothing to a dedicated stalker.