Weighing in about tonight's main discussion: Was Vanessa specifically targeted or not? Good points on both sides. I could argue both ways and have what I think are a couple items of relevance to add.
Yes, it would seem at first glance that there was a good chance that Ortiz was specifically after her given the timing issues: Witness saw his SUV on BSR with him standing outside of it just a half hour or so before Vanessa left her house on her walk/run. (I believe she was walking, not running, not that it matters much.) I believe the witness said he saw the SUV at 12:45 pm or thereabouts, *not* that he saw it drive up and park at that time. If this is the case, we have no idea how long he was waiting there. So, while Vanessa may have been targeted, I don't think that "he was only there a half hour or so before she left for her walk/run, so he must have been targeting her or known her schedule that day, etc." can be used to support this theory. For all we know, he could have been there much longer -- remember, the guy is an idiot -- anyone who wouldn't think twice of being there for an hour and a half or so (at the minimum) and standing outside his vehicle when he is *not* a non-descript-looking person in the context of where he was, probably would not think twice about being at that location for quite a bit longer.
Again, I'm not saying that Vanessa wasn't targeted -- as there's a good case to be made for that theory. I'm just saying that I don't think we know when he arrived at the spot, so we don't know how long he waited.
There's another related and relevant, IMO, factor to remember: This guy is not like the rest of us (or most of us, at least). He could have very well been occasionally driving to certain areas in Princeton *before* the crime occurred waiting...just waiting...for someone...Vanessa maybe, but maybe anyone his "type." I don't think we can use this type of logic, "Who would drive from Worchester all the way to Princeton on his day off if he didn't know Vanessa would be running sometime that day..." This is not only an evil murderer, this is a misogynistic evil murderer. This guy surely has plenty of time for indulging in his "hobby." He doesn't share responsibilities for any domestic duties with his wife. He works 40 hrs/wk and then is done with doing anything else, IMO. He had lots of free time. Moreover, he doesnt own a house, so that alone frees up a lot of time.
I do lean toward believing that Vanessa being targeted, but it's only a leaning. He very well could have been waiting for anyone his type. And if nobody came along on that particular day, there is always another day.
Since we're doing a kind of post mortem -- better to call it a review, given the context -- of the group's collective theories, etc. (which Im glad folks are doing and hope to hear from others)
As with FM, I opined from early on that we werent dealing with the brightest bulb in the bunch. Not patting myself on the back -- Im sure I got some things incorrect but to further expound: A smart person would never commit a crime in the manner in which he did all the Mensa memberships and meticulous planning in the world would not be able to control or even limit too many variables that could go wrong: a cop driving by and investigating, people other than cops driving by/the variable that did go wrong, people running or walking by, someone coming into or out of the residential driveway thats not far away, and the list goes on. A counter argument might be: If he wanted to get Vanessa specifically, he *had* to strike in less than ideal conditions (because she didnt live in the area most of the time, didnt run at night, etc,). A smart person, IMO, would then change targets (if this wasnt a domestic thing, and we had no reason to suspect that Vanessa had some crazed x-significant other or spurned admirer wanting to do her harm) and find someone else that was his *type,* if indeed he has a type.
Other than the did he/did he not specifically target Vanessa question, Im also curious about some smaller things, one of which is:
*Why did he move from PR?
Hope we learn more. Given his age and the viciousness of this crime, I have zero doubt that he has committed crimes against women before. Having no record just means he's gotten away with his crimes. He was only in the US for about two-three months (we dont know when in May he moved here) before he committed this crime. That seems incredulous to me. His impulse control is apparently nil.
Other questions, too, but will leave at this for now, as sleep calls...
Thanks to all who have been participating in this "review" and I appreciate everyone who has put their opinions out there all along. Honestly, I think had this group all been put up in Princeton for a time and had the resources that LE had (DMV records, for instance), I am pretty confident that we could have solved this case -- and last I checked, I don't suffer from delusions of (group) grandeur. I can bring up specific reasons to point to this conclusion, but am too tired now and this post is already too long.
One last thought: CEM, Im with your suggestion about how this monster should meet his end (or least it should be painful, as was Vanessas end) and if that makes me a savage, then so be it. There's the calculable costs to society, of course. However, the biggie to me is that I don't believe that Vanessas parents and other loved ones should not have to wake up each day knowing that Ortiz is also doing the same thing or eat a meal and have the thought run through their minds that Ortiz is doing the same thing all basic things that he took away from Vanessa. I think the DP should be used very, very sparingly -- but it should be used in certain cases. And this is coming from someone who has shed tears when discovering a mouse in a mousetrap I had set years ago I was glad to catch it as it grossed me out that it was in my house, but I cried when I saw its lifeless little body.
I lied -- one last thought: Gold star for Mainely! Everyone likes a nice pat on the back on occasion. I'm going to find Mainely's very thoughtful and detailed post about her "profile" of this monster -- and repost it. I recall much of it -- and what I recall was very right-on!
