Madeleine McCann: German Prisoner Identified as Suspect, #33

[Dave55]

It's worth remembering a couple of points about how courts handle "MO" and 'similar fact' evidence

Germany has different rules of evidence as it doesn't use juries, but we can still make analogies. As a general rule, similar fact evidence is not admissible in common law countries. Ditto 'propensity' reasoning is not allowed i.e. he is the kind of person who would do a murder. You have to offer evidence that directly proves facts at issue - not generic profiles or character types.

So what is allowed?

In England, the rapes on video would likely be allowed as evidence in the HB case, due to uniquely similar modes (whipping, style of dress etc). i don't think they offer MO evidence in the MM case as we have no evidence as to the MO in the MM case. In fact the MO appears different. (short time frame vs extended attacks).

if it could be proven CB did burglaries at the OC that might well be relevant.

But again one of the problems in this case is things we think we know are either

1. Not from the prosecutor but 'reporting' from journalists of unknown quality

2. Hearsay evidence recounted to above journalists

For instance the supposed SIM card from OC 4 would be a huge piece of evidence if it actually exists.

Ditto 'Das Buch' - posters place importance on it, but does it exist?

From what Wolters has said he may have a video of MM that shows abuse matching the other rape cases

 

[Lyall0814]

I'll give you any odds you want, Dave. He doesn't.

(imo he's never hinted at that either. Letting interviewers suggest it or something similar but not denying it isn't the same thing)

 

[mrjitty]

Maybe in Neuwegersleben's factory BKA/HCW found a lot of things that belonged to people from 5L and other apartments in Block 5 and surroundings? It would be evidence that CB was burglaring a limited zone in a limited time span. Maybe 5A was in the middle of that zone?

I could believe this kind of theory - it's the type of thing that would give them high conviction they have the right guy, but potentially be unable to combat the obvious defence counter theory at trial.

 

[mrjitty]

From what Wolters has said he may have a video of MM that shows abuse matching the other rape cases

I'm one of those who thinks this is highly unlikely.

 

[RichardKimble]

I'll give you any odds you want, Dave. He doesn't.

(imo he's never hinted at that either. Letting interviewers suggest it or something similar but not denying it isn't the same thing)

Yes, thats a bit like the SF interview when he said he couldn't deny something, meaning he couldn't comment on the case , she somehow turned it around to confirmation of fibres then Wolter had to deny that.

 

[RichardKimble]

The mobile phone data was an important part of the OG investigation as detailed again with the usual tabloid caveat is as follows

(a) the Home Office report of 2009 voiced concern about “a lack of analysis of mobile phone data”

Mark Rowley had this to say about the phone data in 2017.

MR: So that phone data is always something we will look at and we wouldn’t have had it available if the Portuguese had not got hold of it at the time so we need to be careful about criticism. But we had the data available and we worked with the Portuguese and that was part of the background to do with phone data and various sightings. There was enough there to say, not to prove the case, but there was something worth looking at in more detail and that’s what we did.

 

[Dave55]

Yes, thats a bit like the SF interview when he said he couldn't deny something, meaning he couldn't comment on the case , she somehow turned it around to confirmation of fibres then Wolter had to deny that.

Wolters has been asked several times if he has photographic evidence and he refuses to answer the question

 

[RichardKimble]

Wolters has been asked several times if he has photographic evidence and he refuses to answer the question

Thats as maybe so, doesn't mean he has , so to speculate is a folly imo.

 

[Dave55]

I'll give you any odds you want, Dave. He doesn't.

(imo he's never hinted at that either. Letting interviewers suggest it or something similar but not denying it isn't the same thing)

Thats as maybe so, doesn't mean he has , so to speculate is a folly imo.

There's a lot of speculation going on. There was another child abduction in Portugal which was solved when a video of abuse was found ....Rui Pedro
..so it's not as crazy as it sounds

 

[Lyall0814]

If he had anything like that he wouldn't be describing the evidence he has as circumstantial, Dave. At least not imo

And I doubt they could keep such a secret from the bunch of ravenously hungry tabloids in both countries.

 

[Dave55]

If he had anything like that he wouldn't be describing the evidence he has as circumstantial, Dave. At least not imo

And I doubt they could keep such a secret from the bunch of ravenously hungry tabloids in both countries.

I hope I'm wrong...but he also describes the evidence as concrete...and although it doesn't prove death... death is realistically the only conclusion.
I don't really want to speculate further..so I'll leave it there

 

[Mex]

If he had anything like that he wouldn't be describing the evidence he has as circumstantial, Dave. At least not imo

And I doubt they could keep such a secret from the bunch of ravenously hungry tabloids in both countries.

A very strong case can be built using circumstantial evidence. The available evidence may be circumstantial but that certainly does not mean it is inferior.

 

[RichardKimble]

There's a lot of speculation going on. There was another child abduction in Portugal which was solved when a video of abuse was found ....Rui Pedro
..so it's not as crazy as it sounds

No ones saying its crazy sounding, but the speculation arises because of interpretation of what Wolters might mean rather than quoted direct words from him.

 

[Lyall0814]

A very strong case can be built using circumstantial evidence. The available evidence may be circumstantial but that certainly does not mean it is inferior.

We shall see about that, Mex. I'm sure we can all think of high profile cases in which circumstantial cases are said to be strong by prosecution and media but which later turn out to have been weak. Juries are always under pressure to convict though.

 

[Janosch]

Correio da Manhã said that PJ is searching for a "manta" (type of cloth, see picture) which disappeared along with MM. But it was not found in CB's cars or places. It did not say anymore.

 

[Janosch]

We shall see about that, Mex. I'm sure we can all think of high profile cases in which circumstantial cases are said to be strong by prosecution and media but which later turn out to have been weak. Juries are always under pressure to convict though.

If I consider circumstancial evidence, like CB walking PdL and burglaring apartments by the time, plus his demographical, criminological and psychological profiles, I would say that he is 99% the abductor or killer of MM. But ... I am eager to see that last puzzle piece, the proof. I am scared about an innocent for MM case will be declared guilty, or the real offender will get free for lack of proof.

 

[Malleux]

No ones saying its crazy sounding, but the speculation arises because of interpretation of what Wolters might mean rather than quoted direct words from him.

To be fair, in the recent Discovery documentary, HCW did directly offer up the possibility of photo evidence himself when talking about them not having forensic evidence of MM's death.

"... on the other hand, we have different evidence. It could be witnesses, videos, photos."

 

[Lyall0814]

Correio da Manhã said that today, H?

 

[Janosch]

Correio da Manhã said that today, H?

Yes. But I read this Manta de Maddie McCann pode ser a solução para desvendar mistério do seu desaparecimento

Segundo o jornal, os investigadores da PJ acreditam que quem fez desaparecer Maddie terá levado também esta manta junto com a criança.

A polícia alemã procurou durante as buscas que realizou aos carros usados por CB e aos locais por onde este alemão passou depois do desaparecimento, mas nunca a encontrou.

 

[G-Unit]

Correio da Manhã said that PJ is searching for a "manta" (type of cloth, see picture) which disappeared along with MM. But it was not found in CB's cars or places. It did not say anymore.

View attachment 418899

The pink blanket? Last heard of at about 2.30am on 4th May 2007 in the hands of a GNR dog handler;

They were given a pink/orange blanket that the child had been covered with in her bed.

P.J. POLICE FILES: CARLOS MANUEL CARVALHO LACAO