Malaysia airlines plane may have crashed 239 people on board #16

[aa9511]

Disregard first map
here is another one:

"This map depicts several International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) flight information regions (FIRs). Air traffic controllers lost contact with Malaysia Airline Flight 370 near the region where Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore FIRs intersect (marked by the red dot)."
Courtesy of the International Civil Aviation Organization scientificamerican.com

eta:deleting first map

Thanks. They turned at that point, they went to around that dot on the west side of the peninsula. Then they zig-zagged their way up to around that dot to the west of Phuket, Thailand. They had to zig-zag b/c they were trying to toe the line, and the they were trying to align themselves in a "lost zone" area. Their trajectory follows almost exactly that northwest ATC border line to the west of Malaysian peninsula.

The question I have also been asking myself is - why didn't they just take a flight from Jakarta? Turn off transponder, turn, and you are out in the Indian Ocean. Perhaps they needed the confusion in ATC b/w two countries? Or otherwise Indonesia ATC would have immediately noticed if some plane just fell off its radar? There is no close ATC switch-off. Indonesia ATC would have been watchiing the plane for a long time. I'm assuming this is the reason. They needed the "lost zone" of confusion b/w two ATC. ??

JMO.

 

[PoirotryInMotion]

I’ve also read that the new “pinpointed” search area is outside of the fuel range if a plane as large as the 370 was flying low enough to evade radar as the air would be denser and the plane would have run out of fuel sooner.
<snipped>

Interesting.

But the quesiton now is - WHY did someone want to hijack/take-over the plane, and then lose the plane where no one would look for it.

Where it would be lost.

Hijacker, IMO, did not know about satellite pings. He/they had no idea someone would figure this out. Plane lost. Perhaps someday down the line some parts would wash up on the coast of Australia.

Why would they want to just lose the plane like that?

Makes no sense.

JMO.

Or, he maybe knew about the satellite pings but also knew it wasn't anything he could control--and maybe the small likelihood of the plane's location being tracked 2.5 weeks later using those wasn't an issue.

If the plane is found to be at the bottom of the ocean, it's likely the hijacker didn't hijack for obtaining the plane but for some other resources on the plane, IMO. (Assuming it was hijacked, which is still my pet theory.) And to lose a plane after landing it and taking those resources is no issue, then--and unfortunately would also be a way to dispose of unwanted passengers.

 

[Hatfield]

But the quesiton now is - WHY did someone want to hijack/take-over the plane, and then lose the plane where no one would look for it.

Where it would be lost.

Hijacker, IMO, did not know about satellite pings. He/they had no idea someone would figure this out. Plane lost. Perhaps someday down the line some parts would wash up on the coast of Australia.

Why would they want to just lose the plane like that?

Makes no sense.

JMO.

That seems to be the biggest mystery to me also. If it ends up being where they are currently looking, then why go that far? Why not just ditch the plane once they got out to Indian Ocean? Why go so far South?

No need to try to answer as nobody will ever know till they find the debris field. Once they find the bodies of some key players then maybe there will be some evidence that may help determine.

 

[cluciano63]

We have a few cases here now with murder charges although victims have yet to be found. Imo, some people will believe they are dead, others will not. The police may or may not share why they believe this before a trial. Kind of similar, to me, to this case, only I believe they are unable to share their evidence until the searchers can get their hands on it...I do believe that from what they have seen, the conclusions were valid. Jmo

 

[cluciano63]

Imo, China knows why the statement was made...imo, it was due to what was seen by searchers.

 

[Hatfield]

Interesting.



Or, he maybe knew about the satellite pings but also knew it wasn't anything he could control--and maybe the small likelihood of the plane's location being tracked 2.5 weeks later using those wasn't an issue.

If the plane is found to be at the bottom of the ocean, it's likely the hijacker didn't hijack for obtaining the plane but for some other resources on the plane, IMO. (Assuming it was hijacked, which is still my pet theory.) And to lose a plane after landing it and taking those resources is no issue, then--and unfortunately would also be a way to dispose of unwanted passengers.

Do you think there is a chance they landed it first and unloaded cargo and then sent it out to sea with all on board ?

I suppose with all that time its possible they had time to do a quick landing.

 

[aa9511]

This was my original post from 15th, I've searched for the last 20 mins but can't find the post I was referring to on PPRuNe :banghead:

Someone explained this on a pilots forum - if you look at the flight path the plane may well have followed the border line between countries (Malaysia/Vietnam, then Malaysia/Thailand) which would be a way of confusing ATC.

Thank your for looking and posing. Appreciate it.

I think that's exactly what they did. They apparently wanted the plane to get lost so that no one could find it. And that's how they did it.

It's all just so strange and tragic.

JMO.

 

[huckleberryhound]

I, sadly, think that this was pilot suicide and the pilot went to great lengths to make sure that no one could ever prove that he was responsible. He may have wanted his family to remember him as the pilot of a mysterious missing plane that was never found and not as a man who killed himself and 239 innocent people. And , if his death were officially declared suicide, his family would probably not receive insurance money.

 

[Waddles]

A few days ago I thought maybe this was a deliberate action (pilot, hijacking, terrorism) gone awry. Now I'm wondering, what if what happened was "successful" in the eyes of the perpetrator(s), the plane is ditched in the remotest of areas and extremely hard to find for a long time, all critical eyes of the world are very much on Malaysia, and its airlines may well never recover from this...

ETA for clarity: I meant ditched into the ocean on purpose

 

[ann-other]

Do you think there is a chance they landed it first and unloaded cargo and then sent it out to sea with all on board ?

I suppose with all that time its possible they had time to do a quick landing.

That same thought just occurred to me! Either cargo or certain people?

 

[QueenD]

Imo, China knows why the statement was made...imo, it was due to what was seen by searchers.

What statement? I am confused. Sorry, just curious.

 

[Steely Dan]

So are they going to look again in a few hours?

 

[aa9511]

I ascribe to the theory that this was planned and the pilot was the lone hijacker as a protest to the government and trial he attended earlier in the day. He may have drugged the co-pilot and depressurized the plane to cause loss of consciousness to the crew and passengers.

It's possible that the phone call before takeoff was from a person or persons in collusion with him. There may have been negotiations with the Malaysian government that went south, signaling him to head away from viable landing strips.

Why ditch the plane where it may never be found? Possibly because the mission was unsuccessful, and he/they didn't want such a catastrophe attributed to the protest movement and wasn't willing to face serious jail time.

Or maybe his depressurization unintentionally killed some or all on board and he didn't want his family name associated with mass homicide.

No plane and black box=no definitive conclusion about what happened. People could wonder indefinitely if it was a mechanical or electrical failure and if the pilot was actually a hero.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I respectfully disagree, but am still keeping my mind open. But I really don't think it was either of the pilots. Whoever did this IMO is an evil person. Neither of the two pilots strike me as being evil people.

Captain Shah apparently supported democracy - giving the power to the people of Malaysia - why would he then turn around and kill some of those people? People are making his ties to "opposition parties" sound like he was affiliated with some kind of terrorists or "rogue" party. Since when is a believer in democracy someone "rogue"?

Captain Shah was educated. He seemed to live in the upper-class of society. He had a nice house and a nice family. I know this does not automatically clear him, but it helps us to understand his frame of mind.

He seemed to give back to his community. Why would he want to turn around and murder possibly some of those people?

I'm sorry but I believe this was done by an evil person, an evil persons, or an evil group.

JMO.

 

[Hatfield]

Imo, China knows why the statement was made...imo, it was due to what was seen by searchers.

You could be onto something with that. I heard yesterday they did in fact get pictures of some of the debris. I keep wondering why dont they release the pictures then.

Maybe they dont want a huge online debate about whether it is OR is not part of the plane. I am sure they have experts look at those pictures and they have concluded one way or other.

It seems most of the Austrailian folks seem confident they are in right spot. They keep brining in more and more resources and just waiting for weather.

I think you have something here. Thank You for helping me to realize this.
I think I agree. I think..LOL

 

[Waddles]

I, sadly, think that this was pilot suicide and the pilot went to great lengths to make sure that no one could ever prove that he was responsible. He may have wanted his family to remember him as the pilot of a mysterious missing plane that was never found and not as a man who killed himself and 239 innocent people. And , if his death were officially declared suicide, his family would probably not receive insurance money.

I think so too But to quote myself from a previous thread

imo "pilot suicide" is such a bizarre term, particularly in this case - shouldn't we refer to it as something more like mass murder for attention to a "cause"?
When terrorists crashed into towers it wasn't suicide, it was terrorism and mass murder...

 

[cluciano63]

What statement? I am confused. Sorry, just curious.

The statement about the plane having crashed, no survivors.

 

[Waddles]

I respectfully disagree, but am still keeping my mind open. But I really don't think it was either of the pilots. Whoever did this IMO is an evil person. Neither of the two pilots strike me as being evil people.

Captain Shah apparently supported democracy - giving the power to the people of Malaysia - why would he then turn around and kill some of those people? People are making his ties to "opposition parties" sound like he was affiliated with some kind of terrorists or "rogue" party. Since when is a believer in democracy someone "rogue"?

Captain Shah was educated. He seemed to live in the upper-class of society. He had a nice house and a nice family. I know this does not automatically clear him, but it helps us to understand his frame of mind.

He seemed to give back to his community. Why would he want to turn around and murder possibly some of those people?

I'm sorry but I believe this was done by an evil person, an evil persons, or an evil group.

JMO.

good post, these are very valid questions, this is such a mystifying situation, I really hope we find answers for the families' sakes

 

[Elley Mae]

Williams said the cockpit voice recorder logs all the sound from the cockpit, including intercom chatter, conversations from the flight deck, and radio transmissions.

"If you had a party whistle and you blew it, it would record that, too," he said.

The drawback, he said, is that the apparatus only keeps recent audio because it constantly re-records over old information.

Williams said the real potential trove of information for aircraft accident investigators would be the flight data recorder, which logs more than 100 &#8220;data spots&#8221; such as airspeed, outside air temperature, altitude, engine power and oil pressure for both engines.
"It will show you if the pilot initiated a left turn with the yoke. If he initiated it by turning the auto-pilot control head, it will tell you that." he said.

"It will tell you whether anything was said on the plane&#8217;s six independent radios. It just won&#8217;t tell you what was said.&#8221;

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/malays...on-for-black-box-and-clues-it-holds-1.2584968

 

[JerseyGirl]

A few days ago I thought maybe this was a deliberate action (pilot, hijacking, terrorism) gone awry. Now I'm wondering, what if what happened was "successful" in the eyes of the perpetrator(s), the plane is ditched in the remotest of areas and extremely hard to find for a long time, all critical eyes of the world are very much on Malaysia, and its airlines may well never recover from this...

I think it's been concluded that the plane never landed on an uninhabited island. Besides, how would they put gas in the plane or take off without some sort of runway/road?

 

[Waddles]

So are they going to look again in a few hours?

Hopefully yes, sunrise is in about 3 or 4 hours