MI MI - Danielle Stislicki, 28, Southfield, 2 Dec 2016 #9

[soanyway]

I still keep holding out hope as well. What if the reason LE asked not to search was because they had confirmation she had been taken out of state? I think being a SG could be the perfect ruse for gaining trust with women and I think this may have put DS in a vulnerable position. (Not saying this applies to all SGs, of course). But it's possible that he may have supplied her with a little weed (maybe trying to get closer). I don't think it was a situation where any feelings were reciprocated by DS. I see a scenario where he met up with her and convinced her to drive to his house and once inside, he realized she was not going to be a willing participant. He may have still wanted to take advantage of her, but having feelings for her maybe he couldn't bring himself to do the unthinkable.

Going back to his line of work, he may have contacts that could "make her disappear" without it being fatal. She may not be the typical trafficking victim, but that may not have been the intended purpose and only a means of covering up an assault. The SG could have taken her to a stash house and something happened from there. With statements made by the family about her being held against her will, trafficking posts shared on the FDS and friends' pages, and a self-defense benefit coming up (also shared on FDS), I continue to think this is a possibility. Admittedly, I want so badly for DS to bring joy back into the lives of her family and friends, that I'm having a hard time giving it up.

I still have this nagging feeling she is alive. Even after reading so many theories. Even after reading (what feels like) the entire internet. Even though it's been a long time.

I think there is more than one person involved, and that's why SG hasn't been thrown in jail yet. LE needs more answers.

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[Skigirl]

Yikes

Again, I hope (really, really, really, really x 1000) hope I'm wrong. But one of the biggest cognitive errors that people make is ignoring the base rate information. Say you are a woman and have a positive diagnostic test with 95% accuracy for ovarian cancer. The prevalence of ovarian cancer is 1 in 1000 women. The likelihood you have ovarian cancer is less than 2% (if you're a woman, it's 0% if you're a man). People forget to take the base-rate stats into account. When someone has been abducted by someone who is not a parent (i.e., a custody dispute), there is a very small probability that they are alive after even a pretty short period of time :-(.

 

[monkeypants]

Again, I hope (really, really, really, really x 1000) hope I'm wrong. But one of the biggest cognitive errors that people make is ignoring the base rate information. Say you are a woman and have a positive diagnostic test with 95% accuracy for ovarian cancer. The prevalence of ovarian cancer is 1 in 1000 women. The likelihood you have ovarian cancer is less than 2% (if you're a woman, it's 0% if you're a man). People forget to take the base-rate stats into account. When someone has been abducted by someone who is not a parent (i.e., a custody dispute), there is a very small probability that they are alive after even a pretty short period of time :-(.

After reading Holocene description above, it is a strong reminder that our words can hurt when family and friends are reading along...imo

 

[LBee]

I just had a thought/possible theory, feel free to pick it apart, I'm just spit balling at this point because I don't like feeling like LE is at a standstill.
What is the thought around the SG being the connection to someone else, whether that someone is a weed hook-up, or just someone that had maybe some flirtatious thing going with Dani? It could possibly explain why the SG hasn't been arrested, why he still seems to have support (no fact-based leaks of any kind), and why maybe nothing has come back DNA-wise.
Holocene- my heart just breaks for all of you but the grandpa story had me in tears. I hope they find her and whomever has taken her like, yesterday.

 

[Skigirl]

I still keep holding out hope as well. What if the reason LE asked not to search was because they had confirmation she had been taken out of state? I think being a SG could be the perfect ruse for gaining trust with women and I think this may have put DS in a vulnerable position. (Not saying this applies to all SGs, of course). But it's possible that he may have supplied her with a little weed (maybe trying to get closer). I don't think it was a situation where any feelings were reciprocated by DS. I see a scenario where he met up with her and convinced her to drive to his house and once inside, he realized she was not going to be a willing participant. He may have still wanted to take advantage of her, but having feelings for her maybe he couldn't bring himself to do the unthinkable.

Going back to his line of work, he may have contacts that could "make her disappear" without it being fatal. She may not be the typical trafficking victim, but that may not have been the intended purpose and only a means of covering up an assault. The SG could have taken her to a stash house and something happened from there. With statements made by the family about her being held against her will, trafficking posts shared on the FDS and friends' pages, and a self-defense benefit coming up (also shared on FDS), I continue to think this is a possibility. Admittedly, I want so badly for DS to bring joy back into the lives of her family and friends, that I'm having a hard time giving it up.

I really, really, really hope something like this has happened. But if LE had credible information that she had been taken out of state, why would they discourage people from searching in Michigan? Wouldn't they be all, "meh, whatever, they aren't going to destroy evidence at a crime scene because we know DS is stashed in this other place, let them search if it makes them feel better"?

 

[Skigirl]

After reading Holocene description above, it is a strong reminder that our words can hurt when family and friends are reading along...imo

I hate to sound callous, but stating that there's hope she's alive isn't going to make it so nor is it of less harm to her family.

 

[monkeypants]

I hate to sound callous, but stating that there's hope she's alive isn't going to make it so nor is it of less harm to her family.

Nope but betting people money they are wrong is callous, 5 or 6 posts down from a horrific description from a friend of 17 years searching for her body.

 

[Dolphin8]

I hope to buy you a nice plane ticket to the location of your choice by betting you $1000 that you're wrong. I really hope I need to pay up. I will gladly do so. But, base rates. Math.

I side with Yogi Berra - It ain't over till it's over

 

[Skigirl]

Nope but betting people money they are wrong is callous, 5 or 6 posts down from a horrific description from a friend of 17 years searching for her body.

Sigh. I would like to refer back to some earlier posts by you in which you have also said you do not believe she is alive. I hope you are wrong. I hope I am wrong. I just don't think vague statements about believing someone is alive for no reason whatsoever other than intuition is of value to anyone, including DS' family. Think of it this way: If we got the joyous news that she were found alive, I would gladly, happily, ecstatically, pay $1000 or more to someone I don't even know and whose post I disagree with.

 

[mavicolie]

Those of you that think she is still alive- what is your theory?

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Honestly, it's just a feeling. I try putting theories to the feeling and can talk myself into and out of each one.

I said before that "trafficking" was a theory I had. I feel more like a second or third party has her/is keeping her. (This unpopular opinion has been opened and then quickly shot down a bazillion times in these discussions. So to anyone that feels the need to dissect it again: I've heard it before.)

The feeling is quite possibly and could very probably be wrong, and she may have really met with an unfortunate demise, however, I can't shake the feeling that she's alive.

I don't really think, in any guess, that anyone is going to have bragging rights in the end. We'll all either be sad(der) or happy she's home.

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[soanyway]

If she were out of state, then searching within the state of Michigan could potentially put others in danger with little to gain. There was a trafficking victim rescued in a hotel within walking distance of MetLife around the time DS disappeared. If family/friends were to search or even distribute fliers, the places they would have to reach would likely not be the safest areas. The FDS page has encouraged everyone to continue sharing through SM, which would be the best avenue if indeed she is out of state. JMO

I really, really, really hope something like this has happened. But if LE had credible information that she had been taken out of state, why would they discourage people from searching in Michigan? Wouldn't they be all, "meh, whatever, they aren't going to destroy evidence at a crime scene because we know DS is stashed in this other place, let them search if it makes them feel better"?

 

[soanyway]

I think it's a possibility, but that would still involve the SG whose home was searched. So he would have to know that 3rd party was and if that were the case, IMO, an arrest would've already been made.

I just had a thought/possible theory, feel free to pick it apart, I'm just spit balling at this point because I don't like feeling like LE is at a standstill.
What is the thought around the SG being the connection to someone else, whether that someone is a weed hook-up, or just someone that had maybe some flirtatious thing going with Dani? It could possibly explain why the SG hasn't been arrested, why he still seems to have support (no fact-based leaks of any kind), and why maybe nothing has come back DNA-wise.
Holocene- my heart just breaks for all of you but the grandpa story had me in tears. I hope they find her and whomever has taken her like, yesterday.

 

[soanyway]

Respectfully, there's no more basis for your theory than mine. I think the point was in the delivery.

I hate to sound callous, but stating that there's hope she's alive isn't going to make it so nor is it of less harm to her family.

 

[Skigirl]

If she were out of state, then searching within the state of Michigan could potentially put others in danger with little to gain. There was a trafficking victim rescued in a hotel within walking distance of MetLife around the time DS disappeared. If family/friends were to search or even distribute fliers, the places they would have to reach would likely not be the safest areas. The FDS page has encouraged everyone to continue sharing through SM, which would be the best avenue if indeed she is out of state. JMO

I don't know. Does LE see daytime good-weather ground searches as a high-risk activity? Sorry, I seem to just be arguing with everyone tonight. I guess the fact that she hasn't been located yet is making me grumpy.

I think they are asking people not to search because the risk of destroying evidence is greater than the probability she'll be found by unfocused searches by unskilled individuals. I think they have some good leads and think that targeted searches, by LE, based on evidence are a better strategy. I hope she's found soon.

 

[Skigirl]

Respectfully, there's no more basis for your theory than mine. I think the point was in the delivery.

Respectfully, thousands of years of math is in my favor, but I'm happy not to argue anymore.

 

[Momma2cam]

Honestly, it's just a feeling. I try putting theories to the feeling and can talk myself into and out of each one.

I said before that "trafficking" was a theory I had. I feel more like a second or third party has her/is keeping her. (This unpopular opinion has been opened and then quickly shot down a bazillion times in these discussions. So to anyone that feels the need to dissect it again: I've heard it before.)

The feeling is quite possibly and could very probably be wrong, and she may have really met with an unfortunate demise, however, I can't shake the feeling that she's alive.

I don't really think, in any guess, that anyone is going to have bragging rights in the end. We'll all either be sad(der) or happy she's home.

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Thank you for responding. I was thinking about a post earlier that she was somewhere tied up. If so, there would have to be a 3rd party (or totally different party if SG is innocent) involved as I'm sure LE is keeping close tabs on SG and he would not be able to go to her. I assume trafficking will continue to be a theory of hope as well until we know for certain.

I tend to believe she was deceased within that first 24 hours. I still think it was a crime of passion but that's based mostly on statistics. I am also skeptical of the cause of death ruling for EH who was found on the home depot roof and have this lingering thought, as someone else has mentioned, that there is a connection. If so, that would rule out the crime of passion theory.

It is hard to sit with one theory when so little info is given from LE. As the days and weeks go on without resolution, I can't imagine how hard it is for her family and friends to begin to heal. They are stuck in a state of trauma. Hopefully there is a break soon.

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[soanyway]

I honestly try to put myself in the family's position (though obviously an impossible task). If the family has been given confirmation by LE that she is no longer with us, which we would not be privy to, I fail to see the harm in speaking of DS respectfully and keeping her spirit alive, continuing the discussion. If the family has NOT been given confirmation, then I would think every ounce of HOPE they receive would be a welcome blessing. Again, I can't imagine being in their position. I continue to pray for the best possible outcome.

Honestly, it's just a feeling. I try putting theories to the feeling and can talk myself into and out of each one.

I said before that "trafficking" was a theory I had. I feel more like a second or third party has her/is keeping her. (This unpopular opinion has been opened and then quickly shot down a bazillion times in these discussions. So to anyone that feels the need to dissect it again: I've heard it before.)

The feeling is quite possibly and could very probably be wrong, and she may have really met with an unfortunate demise, however, I can't shake the feeling that she's alive.

I don't really think, in any guess, that anyone is going to have bragging rights in the end. We'll all either be sad(der) or happy she's home.

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[Dolphin8]

Respectfully, thousands of years of math is in my favor, but I'm happy not to argue anymore.

I respect your feelings and I respect math even more. I'm aware of those percentages, thing is tho, I've seen that small percentage, I mean, I've actually witnessed it. I'm not riding around on unicorns spouting pretty intuition, I'm saying that percentage, however small, still exists.

 

[soanyway]

I think we're all frustrated that there has not been an update by LE or a significant break in her case. Listening to Holocene recount the search reminded me of the case that brought me to WS. The woman's family did not have near the following that DS has, but a small army of 6-8 volunteers would meet up every night to distribute fliers. Her vehicle had been left (also with her belongings inside) at a motel known for drug/prostitution activity, so these were the places they distributed fliers. Every day. She was found deceased about 40 minutes from where her vehicle was abandoned and a RSO known to the family is currently being held as a POI. LE had served him with a warrant weeks prior, but he'd been shot in the process and hospitalized. No one even knew he was on LE's radar until she'd been found.

Then I think of Kayla Brown being rescued in SC and wonder how many had written her off. Who would've ever guessed the circumstances surrounding her captivity and that she'd be found alive? I'm usually very grounded. I just think with what LE's released, and more importantly, not released, it's too hard to be definitive. JMO

I don't know. Does LE see daytime good-weather ground searches as a high-risk activity? Sorry, I seem to just be arguing with everyone tonight. I guess the fact that she hasn't been located yet is making me grumpy.

I think they are asking people not to search because the risk of destroying evidence is greater than the probability she'll be found by unfocused searches by unskilled individuals. I think they have some good leads and think that targeted searches, by LE, based on evidence are a better strategy. I hope she's found soon.

 

[Skigirl]

I respect your feelings and I respect math even more. I'm aware of those percentages, thing is tho, I've seen that small percentage, I mean, I've actually witnessed it. I'm not riding around on unicorns spouting pretty intuition, I'm saying that percentage, however small, still exists.

True enough. Once the outcome is known, the probability ceases to be 2% or 98%. It's 100% or 0% at that point.