100% convinced defendant killed the victim is not the legal standard in the first place. I'm not 100% convinced either. However I do think there was enough to take a jury beyond a reasonable doubt. I can throw out all the supposedly planted items (key, blood in SUV) and still get past reasonable doubt based on even less:
1. He was the last known person to be in the company of the victim and her last known location was Avery property - this in and of itself is actually up for debate considering the whole situation with the timeline and the fact she may well have gone to Zipperer's afterwards. Plus, just because he is the last "known" person to see her, doesn't mean he is the killer. The killer would certainly be the last person to see her alive, just not necessarily "known."
2. Her phone was not used after 2:41pm and stopped pinging to a tower after that (4:35pm) That really tells us nothing.
3. Her body was found on the Avery property, burned and into charred bits. Also up for debate, but it doesn't mean it was not planted there by either the killer or some other person intent on framing him. Remember, although the property belonged to the Avery's it was also a public space and the general public did have access, as did LE.
4. Her vehicle was found on the Avery property (note I'm not mentioning anything about his blood) Same as above
5. Her personal belongings were in his burn barrel(s) and an attempt to destroy them through burning had taken place. Same
6. He cleaned a particular area of his garage with bleach. A garage that was not clean in any other place and was, by all appearances, a cluttered mess. Bleach does not destroy blood DNA.
7. He had a bonfire that night. another one up for debate - he also had bonfires all the time. So what?
There. I just listed circumstantial evidence that doesn't use the key, the blood, the bullet, or BD's statements and that would be enough for some juries to be able to convict. But there's a lot more than that in this case. One could argue each item separately (and many have) but when you look at everything in totality, which is what juries are instructed to do, at some point the coincidences are beyond mere coincidences.
But you see, this is what we are talking about. The fact that the ways juries are instructed doesn't always make sense. Yes - coincidences do happen. I could read you a laundry list of the circumstantial evidence against SA in the original rape case, and yes, he was convicted by a jury. But the jury got it wrong. Why? Because there was a huge assumption of his guilty from the get go, a determined legal system wanting to put him away and that they weren't really privy to all of the information.
Look, SA may have done this crime (I don't think so) but the fact that every piece of physical AND circumstantial evidence CAN be explained by a frame job is truly compelling and points to the very minimum of reasonable doubt.
But in this country, reasonable doubt is the standard by which a jury of 12 people must use to render their verdict. The verdict is binding and if not guilty, the person goes free forever, whether or not they did it. But when the verdict is guilty, there are appeals. The one thing, however, that cannot be appealed is the verdict itself, as the jury is the finder of fact, while the state is the finder of law. The appellate court cannot come in and say - well, these people got their facts wrong, or they should have seen the reasonable doubt. They can only look at how the laws were applied in the case.
Yet we have found countless cases where the jury did, in fact, get it wrong. They blew it. They heard and trusted what the state told them and connected the dots as they were instructed to do and convicted someone. They convicted Ryan Ferguson with absolutely no shred of physical evidence whatsoever. It happens all the time. There are tremendous amounts of pressure to solve cases as quickly as possible, particularly high profile ones. And there are cases where LE really does believe they have the "right guy."
But then, in this case, we have a juror out there who has claimed jury tampering. He/she claims they were pressured to change their vote. We do not know who this person is, but the dismissed juror does and says he has talked to this person and this person is afraid. If a juror comes forward with this claim and it is investigated and proven true, we have a huge problem. That would definitely one of the only reasons why an appelate court could overturn a jury verdict and demand a new trial.
I am 100% confident that if they had to give SA and BD new trials, there would be absolutely no way they would ever get a guilty verdict again. Not a chance. Particularly if the jury is made up of normal citizens who don't have ties to MCPD.