New Guinea - Amelia Earhart & Fred Noonan, en route to Howland Island, 2 July 1937

DNA Solves
DNA Solves
DNA Solves
Researchers hope DNA testing may finally prove whether bones found on a remote island were Amelia Earhart's
By Elizabeth Wolfe and Brian Ries, CNN October 15, 2019

DNA testing may determine whether newly discovered bones from an island in the Pacific are those of Amelia Earhart -- and perhaps shed light on what happened to the pioneering aviator after she disappeared.

The bones were found on Nikumaroro, a remote island in the western Pacific Ocean, in 1940. But it wasn't until a 2018 study that people began to suspect they could belong to Earhart. That's when researcher Richard Jantz re-examined their measurements and found they closely matched those of the missing pilot.

Erin Kimmerle, a forensic anthropologist at the University of South Florida, plans to use DNA testing to confirm the theory. Kimmerle sent samples off for DNA testing and is awaiting the results.

191015135015-amelia-earhart-skull-medium-plus-169.jpg


Kimmerle has reconstructed the skull and sent samples off for DNA testing...

LINK:
Amelia Earhart: DNA testing may prove whether bones from Pacific island belong to famed aviator - CNN
 
Researchers hope DNA testing may finally prove whether bones found on a remote island were Amelia Earhart's
By Elizabeth Wolfe and Brian Ries, CNN October 15, 2019

DNA testing may determine whether newly discovered bones from an island in the Pacific are those of Amelia Earhart -- and perhaps shed light on what happened to the pioneering aviator after she disappeared.

The bones were found on Nikumaroro, a remote island in the western Pacific Ocean, in 1940. But it wasn't until a 2018 study that people began to suspect they could belong to Earhart. That's when researcher Richard Jantz re-examined their measurements and found they closely matched those of the missing pilot.

Erin Kimmerle, a forensic anthropologist at the University of South Florida, plans to use DNA testing to confirm the theory. Kimmerle sent samples off for DNA testing and is awaiting the results.

191015135015-amelia-earhart-skull-medium-plus-169.jpg


Kimmerle has reconstructed the skull and sent samples off for DNA testing...

LINK:
Amelia Earhart: DNA testing may prove whether bones from Pacific island belong to famed aviator - CNN


I just finished watching the National Geographic special on the search of Gardner Island that involved Robert Ballard and his team. It seemed to indicate that the DNA was inconclusive. Was this an additional test? Also, I gathered that ultimately they thought the skull was probably from someone of Polynesian decent. Am I mistaken? Lastly. Is there a way to determine the age of the skull?

I am thinking that Amelia missed Howland Island and crashed into the sea ( I am taking the radio transmissions were the operator stated that, from strength and clarity of signal, it sounded like she was overhead. Even causing sailors aboard the vessel to go top side in an effort to visually spot the plane. As solid evidence). Although the make up jar and "make up remnants" are intriguing to say the least.
 
Regarding the radio transmissions from Amelia, I believe that the signals heard by the Coast Guard Cutter Itasca were day time and fairly close to the ship. That was while they were still airborne.

The signals reportedly heard by other various stations, including in the continental United States and Canada were night time signals which would have originated only after Amelia's plane was down and no longer flying.

At night, HF radio waves bounce off the ionosphere and "skip" for many miles. It is like the old AM radio stations which could be heard many states away at night time, but only local ones could be heard during the day time hours.

The idea of Amelia being able to transmit hours and days after her plane could no longer be airborne is what led many to believe that she had indeed landed on a remote island.
 
Regarding the radio transmissions from Amelia, I believe that the signals heard by the Coast Guard Cutter Itasca were day time and fairly close to the ship. That was while they were still airborne.

The signals reportedly heard by other various stations, including in the continental United States and Canada were night time signals which would have originated only after Amelia's plane was down and no longer flying.

At night, HF radio waves bounce off the ionosphere and "skip" for many miles. It is like the old AM radio stations which could be heard many states away at night time, but only local ones could be heard during the day time hours.

The idea of Amelia being able to transmit hours and days after her plane could no longer be airborne is what led many to believe that she had indeed landed on a remote island.

Any idea how long those signals would skip around? I am just wondering because , and I do not remember when or where, I seem to recall stories of radio transmissions being received significantly later than when originally transmitted. Like I say, I remember hearing something about that but have no idea when or where I heard it.

Also, I wonder how present day radio interference affects the transmission of the day time signals as compared to 1937.

Is there any proof that these transmissions where made days after, aside from the testimony of those that received the messages?

And at the end of the day there is the possibility that the transmissions were a hoax.
 
Rob525,

Good questions. Here is a link to a pretty comprehensive study done in recent times which attempts to correlate all the radio signals believed to be to or from Amelia Earhart following her 1937 disappearance:

The Post Loss Radio Signal Catalog, page 2

Radio wave theory has a lot of factors to consider which could account for the many reports of hearing Amelia after her plane would have no longer been in the air.

An aircraft cannot remain airborne for an indefinite time. When usable fuel runs out, the engines will quit and the plane will begin to descend on a glide and go to earth. Amelia certainly knew this, and was desperately seeking a place to land - if not on Howland Island, then any other island.

Amelia's plane was equipped with a then state-of-the-art radio which could transmit and receive in the High Frequency (HF) range. She had certain assigned frequencies to use. She also had a circular Direction Finder antenna which she could use to attempt to home in on a radio transmission from the Cutter Itasca (stationed off Howland Island).

During daylight hours, the sun creates a condition in which only direct line transmissions can be heard. There is a range (distance) that the radio can be detected based on the frequency, the power of the transmitter, the altitude and orientation of the antenna (aircraft), sensitivity of the receiving station, and other atmospheric conditions.

Day time transmissions from Amelia's plane would NOT have been powerful enough to have reached the Continental US, and would have been weak/attenuated by the time they reached the most distant stations which could pick her up. Because of all this, some stations could hear other stations calling Amelia, but not hear her reply. Others might have been close enough to hear Amelia, but not the station she heard.

Voice transmissions usually require a strong connection/signal to be heard, while Morse Code transmissions can be heard over longer ranges because it is simply dots and dashes, or (sometimes) interruptions in the carrier signal. A station far away might hear Amelia key her microphone, but not make out what she was saying.

At Night time, HF signals will bounce off the Ionosphere, bend back to earth, and then rise up to the Ionosphere further away, and repeat. This is referred to as "Skip" or sky wave signals. Think of a series of rings around a transmitter. If you are on one of those rings with a receiver, you could be able to pick up the signal. It is almost instantaneous. Atmospheric conditions, static, transmitter orientation, etc can cause the signal to fade in or out at the receiver site.

Another radio phenomenon is frequency "harmonics". These are higher frequencies which are related to the chosen transmission frequency. They occur in a predictable pattern, much like playing a chord on a musical instrument. When all is in tune, and conditions are right, you can hear other notes which are not actually being played on the instrument, but which are part of the harmonic make-up of the chord. The same is true of radio signals or other sound transmissions (like underwater sounds). What this means is that someone listening on a radio set tuned to a higher frequency than the one Amelia is transmitting on might be able to hear her if they happen to be on one of her station's harmonic frequencies.

The above link addresses a number of these issues. It attempts to match signal logs from various stations to those of other stations in an attempt to validate the communications. For example one remote receiver hears another station asking for Amelia to respond by keying her microphone, but hears no response. Another station reports hearing a series of microphone keyings at the same time, but did not hear the station requesting them. When all is assembled and studied in a single timeline, a clearer picture develops.

There were Hoaxes, certainly, with a number of people claiming to have heard Amelia on radios. But the hoaxes were easily eliminated because they were claimed to be at times outside of when a Skip signal might have been heard, or on frequencies that were not related to Amelia's.

But some of those reported signals DID have merit and were heard on night time signals which related to harmonic frequencies closely associated with Amelia's.

Reports of hearing Amelia (after her plane would have landed) were almost immediate. Early reports of her being missing included reports of various stations picking up her signals. This was the strongest clue that she may have made a successful landing, because her radios would not have worked in the water - only on land and with one engine operating.

There were probably attempts to fake Amelia's voice in transmissions, but that would have to have been done on some specialized transmission equipment to also fake her frequency.

I have heard stories about radio or TV signals being picked up which were transmitted days or even years before, but cannot verify them. The signals associated with Amelia are pretty well documented and occurred within days of her disappearance.
 
I have avoided this thread for a very long time knowing I would be here for quite some time and now the time has come. I think they ended up on Gardener Island.

I have not read anymore than a few posts in this thread but do have some input of radios/radio signals. 20 years ago we had just a regular CB radio with a nothing special antenna outside and I believe a power booster at one point. This was certainly not an expensive or elaborate set up. We are in Northern New England and some days we were able to talk to people all over the country. I do remember referring to those days as "good skip days".
 
I have avoided this thread for a very long time knowing I would be here for quite some time and now the time has come. I think they ended up on Gardener Island.

I have not read anymore than a few posts in this thread but do have some input of radios/radio signals. 20 years ago we had just a regular CB radio with a nothing special antenna outside and I believe a power booster at one point. This was certainly not an expensive or elaborate set up. We are in Northern New England and some days we were able to talk to people all over the country. I do remember referring to those days as "good skip days".
So I guess the obvious question is; What do you think the reason is that they have never been found? That island seems to have been searched immediately after the reported disappearance and repeatedly since but no definitive proof. Not saying I disagree with the theory but it seems there should have been some concrete evidence given the amount of time and money put into searches over the years.( I believe the most like being a crash at sea, all theory have major holes).

Here is another thought I had. Baker Island is a bit further to the south and was later used during the war complete with an airstrip. The airstrip was not there in 1937 but the island looks to be relatively flat ( since they later constructed an air strip I would assume that the terrain prior to construction was deemed suitable for that use.) While I am not a pilot, just thinking I would be more willing to land on Baker Island than Gardner Island just looking at the aerial view. But again the question is; Where is the plane?
 
My earlier link was to page 2 of the Radio report. This link will get you started on page one, which has some good information:

The Post Loss Radio Signal Catalog, page 1

One thing that jumped out to me that I am possibly misunderstanding:

"But even if a hoaxer had a suitable transmitter, and was a woman or had a female accomplice, it would be impossible to control who would hear the signal, and thus impossible to direct the hoax to a specific target or group of targets. A hoax transmitter in the continental U.S. (CONUS) should have been heard by at least one of the 44 airport stations maintaining a continuous listening watch on 3105 kHz; a hoax transmitter on or near the west coast should have been heard by the special Coast Guard facility set up near San Francisco to listen for Earhart signals; and a hoax transmitter in Hawaii should have been heard loud and clear simultaneously at the Navy, Coast Guard, and Pan American Airways stations in Hawaii listening for Earhart signals. No such signals were reported."

If a hoaxer with the correct transmitter for broadcasting on 3105 kHz should have been heard by all those entities i.e. the Navy and Cost Guard etc. shouldn't Amelia Earhart, who presumably was broadcasting on that very same frequency, have been heard by all of the entities monitoring that channel for such broadcasts?
 
One thing that jumped out to me that I am possibly misunderstanding:

"But even if a hoaxer had a suitable transmitter, and was a woman or had a female accomplice, it would be impossible to control who would hear the signal, and thus impossible to direct the hoax to a specific target or group of targets. A hoax transmitter in the continental U.S. (CONUS) should have been heard by at least one of the 44 airport stations maintaining a continuous listening watch on 3105 kHz; a hoax transmitter on or near the west coast should have been heard by the special Coast Guard facility set up near San Francisco to listen for Earhart signals; and a hoax transmitter in Hawaii should have been heard loud and clear simultaneously at the Navy, Coast Guard, and Pan American Airways stations in Hawaii listening for Earhart signals. No such signals were reported."

If a hoaxer with the correct transmitter for broadcasting on 3105 kHz should have been heard by all those entities i.e. the Navy and Cost Guard etc. shouldn't Amelia Earhart, who presumably was broadcasting on that very same frequency, have been heard by all of the entities monitoring that channel for such broadcasts?

I think they are stating that no such hoax signals were reported by those agencies.

You can check the site above for a list of all the reported post-loss transmissions and whether they are judged credible based on content, timing, etc. The credible transmissions heard on CONUS were generally on harmonics of 3105 kHz, meaning a multiple (6210 kHz), and it's possible for someone to be heard on the harmonic and not the original frequency since they are going to have different transmission properties.

This paper goes into the specifics of harmonics a bit more: Harmony and Power
 
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Or put it another way:

There were two people who heard a post-loss transmission at the same time, but on different harmonics of 3105 kHz. The only way this is possible is if someone was broadcasting two simultaneous transmissions on the harmonics only, which would be quite a feat, or someone was broadcasting on 3105 kHz. That was in use as a commercial frequency in the US, by aircraft, so anyone in CONUS doing unauthorized transmissions on that frequency would get the Wrath of God down on them (plus they'd need specialized equipment anyway.) Yet nobody picked up anything in CONUS on 3105 kHz, even though airports listened, not necessarily for Amelia but as part of their job because other aircraft also used 3105. But while 3105 kHz doesn't transmit very far (by design), the harmonics can (and do) propagate through the magic of radio far from their original source - at lower power, but still.

So assume that someone was broadcasting 3105 kHz, but they were doing it outside CONUS (meaning the harmonics would be heard in CONUS but nothing on the original frequency), who would be doing that, on voice? And in 1937 that boiled down to some commercial aircraft in the US, some commercial Canadian planes flying to the US, Amelia, and the ship Itasca.
 
So I guess the obvious question is; What do you think the reason is that they have never been found? That island seems to have been searched immediately after the reported disappearance and repeatedly since but no definitive proof. Not saying I disagree with the theory but it seems there should have been some concrete evidence given the amount of time and money put into searches over the years.( I believe the most like being a crash at sea, all theory have major holes).

Here is another thought I had. Baker Island is a bit further to the south and was later used during the war complete with an airstrip. The airstrip was not there in 1937 but the island looks to be relatively flat ( since they later constructed an air strip I would assume that the terrain prior to construction was deemed suitable for that use.) While I am not a pilot, just thinking I would be more willing to land on Baker Island than Gardner Island just looking at the aerial view. But again the question is; Where is the plane?

You basically pose two valid points, the first regarding the search for Amelia, and the second being a pilot's choice of landing sites.

Both questions/comments are somewhat related when you consider the vast size of the Pacific Ocean and what was available at the time in the way of Navigation knowledge and equipment.

Amelia and Fred had only a Sextant (ship's type) and celestial (stars and sun) for navigation aids, and whatever charts (maps) were available to them at the time. Those charts, if they had all the islands on them, would only have shown them as small dots - not in the way that one can see them today with overhead satellite views. There were (and still are) many islands and atolls which existed but were either not on the chart (uncharted) or were charted incorrectly.

Amelia's destination was Howland Island, where a runway/airstrip had been prepared and supplied with Aviation fuel and supplies. There were very few airstrips in the Pacific in 1937, with the exception of some of the (League of Nations) Mandated Islands further north - and those were controlled by Japan. Even Guam, which is a sizable island (owned then and now by the US), did not have an airstrip in 1937.

She was trying desperately to find Howland Island and was talking on the radio (or trying to) with the cutter Itasca. At some point, she got a bearing to/from the Itasca and was "flying north and south" - on that bearing/back bearing - trying to locate Itasca and Howland Island. She was getting low on fuel.

Extending that bearing, generally south from Howland Island, it comes very close to Gardner Island. While there may have been islands which offered a better landing beach, it is very likely that she felt that the time had come and she had to put the plane down now rather than go scouting around further. Being somewhat lost already, she probably did not know the identity or location of this opportune landing site. She might not have been able to see other islands at the time.

Regarding the search for Amelia after her plane was down: The US Navy, Coast Guard, and others were actively looking for her over a period of time. Navy aircraft in 1937 would have been short range carrier based planes which were not immediately available for the search, although they did join the search after a few days.

Again, the vastness of the Pacific has to be considered regarding an over water search. Having done some of these searches, I can say that a 16 foot boat looks like a white cap at even a low search altitude. The largest ship in the world ever to sink was the Berg Istra, a super tanker size ore ship which sank in the Pacific in 1975 and it went down without a trace. The Navy searched for that ship for weeks and found nothing. Its fate became known only when two crewmen in a rubber raft were picked up by a small fishing boat.

Regarding Amelia's plane - It is very likely under water. IF she landed it on Gardner Island, there was not much of a beach to land on, and tides could have caused the plane to float off shore a short way before sinking. This tide action (washing the plane out to sea) could have taken place within days of her landing.

It was stated in some reports about Amelia's radio that it would not work if the plane was in the water, but could work on land with at least one engine running to charge the battery.
 
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Or put it another way:

There were two people who heard a post-loss transmission at the same time, but on different harmonics of 3105 kHz. The only way this is possible is if someone was broadcasting two simultaneous transmissions on the harmonics only, which would be quite a feat, or someone was broadcasting on 3105 kHz. That was in use as a commercial frequency in the US, by aircraft, so anyone in CONUS doing unauthorized transmissions on that frequency would get the Wrath of God down on them (plus they'd need specialized equipment anyway.) Yet nobody picked up anything in CONUS on 3105 kHz, even though airports listened, not necessarily for Amelia but as part of their job because other aircraft also used 3105. But while 3105 kHz doesn't transmit very far (by design), the harmonics can (and do) propagate through the magic of radio far from their original source - at lower power, but still.

So assume that someone was broadcasting 3105 kHz, but they were doing it outside CONUS (meaning the harmonics would be heard in CONUS but nothing on the original frequency), who would be doing that, on voice? And in 1937 that boiled down to some commercial aircraft in the US, some commercial Canadian planes flying to the US, Amelia, and the ship Itasca.[/QUOTe

What I was getting at thought, and I am still going through all of the messages, I agree there was no hoax transmission. So , that would mean that what the folks CONUS would have heard were actual transmissions. Is there any concurrance from the military elements purposely monitoring the frequency that they also heard the same transmissions? I am through one page and the first real "message" purported to be from Earhart was heard by a woman in Texas and not reported until 1990.
 
As far as I know, no, but it isn't likely that the military or government would have been monitoring harmonics in CONUS when they had an active search with the Itasca (and later other ships), on the original frequency, and in fact there were some credible post-loss transmissions heard by Pan Am, the Coast Guard, etc.

In short they had no reason to be listening for harmonics far away, but I also don't think they suspected Amelia would be that far off course, throw in the radio problems and her not knowing morse code and there are a lot of things that went wrong.
 
Radio harmonics on signals originating in the area of the Pacific Ocean where Amelia was might be picked up at night in the Continental US, but ONLY if the receiver happens to be in a convergence zone for that sky wave.

Someone listening in Amarillo, Texas might hear the signal, but it might NOT be heard a few miles east or west of where that radio picked up the signal.
 
I was watching another short documentary last night. The gist of the story is a picture is found that some claim to show Amelia and Fred on a dock in Saipan after the plane crashed. The story that they are putting forth is one that has Amelia crashing the plane near Saipan, with Fred, Amelia and the plane being picked up by a Japanese warship and taken to Saipan. The proponents of this whole story say that the photo also shows a barge with the plane on it being towed by the Japanese ship.

The story also goes on to say that Amelia was imprisoned and killed in Saipan.

Entirely my opinion but; I do not see how anyone could make the connection and call this photo "proof" as the documentary claimed. Could it be Amelia and Fred? Sure, but it could also be millions of other people.
If she was captured and later imprisoned why are there no military / guards in the picture etc. The folks in the picture do not seem to be in custody.
Also, if she is over Howland island and stating that fuel is running low, I don't think she makes it to the Mariana islands.
 

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The photo supposedly of Amelia and Fred is a fairly recent "find".

The theory that Fred and Amelia were captured by the Japanese and transported to Saipan has been around a long time. There was a book about it written in the mid 1960's, and it was based on interviews that the author made with various islanders and US military veterans.

To believe the story, one has to believe that the Japanese held Amelia prisoner secretly on Saipan for 7 years. Also supposedly her plane was kept by the Japanese in a secure hangar on Saipan all that time, but destroyed by the US Army on orders of President Roosevelt.

The basic idea was much earlier put forth in a work of fiction made into a wartime movie which suggested that Amelia's trip to the Pacific was to overfly and spy on Japanese fortifications in the Mandated Islands, and that her flight via Howland Island was a cover for her "real" mission.

A lot to try and comprehend. One has to wonder why the Japanese would have held her secretly for all those years.

IF... Amelia had been asked to overfly Japanese islands on her round-the-world tour it would have been far easier to have made air strips on Guam and Wake islands which were US owned, and more safely reached than tiny Howland Island. Such a route would have taken her more near Caroline and Marianas islands being fortified by Japan.
 
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I was watching another short documentary last night. The gist of the story is a picture is found that some claim to show Amelia and Fred on a dock in Saipan after the plane crashed. The story that they are putting forth is one that has Amelia crashing the plane near Saipan, with Fred, Amelia and the plane being picked up by a Japanese warship and taken to Saipan. The proponents of this whole story say that the photo also shows a barge with the plane on it being towed by the Japanese ship.

The story also goes on to say that Amelia was imprisoned and killed in Saipan.

Entirely my opinion but; I do not see how anyone could make the connection and call this photo "proof" as the documentary claimed. Could it be Amelia and Fred? Sure, but it could also be millions of other people.
If she was captured and later imprisoned why are there no military / guards in the picture etc. The folks in the picture do not seem to be in custody.
Also, if she is over Howland island and stating that fuel is running low, I don't think she makes it to the Mariana islands.
The photo has been debunked... It was published several years before.

Amelia Earhart 'Lost Photograph' Discredited

Amelia Earhart mystery: Photo appears taken 2 years before pilot vanished - CNN

Blogger discredits claim Amelia Earhart was taken prisoner by Japan
 
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