GUILTY NH - Abby Hernandez, 14, North Conway, 9 Oct 2013 - #15

DNA Solves
DNA Solves
DNA Solves
We do not know exactly what happened. I am not convinced either way at this point if Abby was with this guy willingly or not, and I must add, that if she was there "willingly" because of her age it was still a criminal act. I can only observe what I consider to be some very strange things about this case. They are odd enough, that I do not see how anyone at this point could be totally convinced that this was a clear case of stranger abduction. It might turn out to be that, but I am still very troubled by the sketch and by the fact that it took an entire week to arrest Kibby, and that in that time he very casually walked into the police station and chatted with the chief of police, like he did not have a care in the world.

Again, I can go either way on many of the unanswered questions, but I cannot fathom how anyone can be completely sure they know what happened here.
 
I understand, Fireweed.

I've been doing this for so many years and I have been wrong on many cases. But I am completely convinced of my opinion on this one.
 
I suppose the counter argument to "not wanting to be found" would be "who in their right mind would want to be kept in a storage container". If you merely wanted to disappear, you could sit in the trailer watching tv all day and not answering the door.

And that is still a possibility here.
 
I understand, Fireweed.

I've been doing this for so many years and I have been wrong on many cases. But I am completely convinced of my opinion on this one.

I would be happy to hear your reasons. I have simply done my own analysis using the facts of the case as we know them so far. I am sure that more facts will come out and that we all update our opinion as to what happened. But so far, with the facts as we have them so far, I could never, ever reach the conclusion that this was 100% for sure a stranger abduction. Again, the facts do not prove that it was not one, but on the flip side, they also do not prove that it was one.

If you turn out to be right, based entirely on the facts as we have them now, then you just made a lucky guess. There is absolutely no way anyone could possibly know for sure what went down here. There are too many conflicting pieces of evidence.

I should add that I do not consider "gut feelings" or "just knowing" to be evidence.
 
Fair enough.

You know I am not being sarcastic. I would actually like to hear your reasons for your conclusion. I see a lot of evidence that fits with stranger abduction, and the main one to me is Abby going completely dark on social media the very afternoon she vanishes. Also, unlike some people, I can completely fit both Abby's letter and her parents treating her like a runaway, into being a kidnap victim. Kibby makes Abby write a letter, in which she tells them she ran away. LE gets it - this guy is planning on keeping her alive. They see now how they can get her back: they will go along with the runaway thing, so that when Kibby returns her, he is relaxed, knowing that they will still think Abby just ran away. There, that is the evidence that I see of a stranger abduction.

Again, I have a lot of other evidence that points to the opposite being true.
 
Verification Process for Professionals and Insiders


If you would like to add youself as an expert in a certain field or as an insider to a case, please send an email to wsverify@xmission.com.

If you do not wish to be identified as an expert in a certain area, we ask that you refrain from answering questions that are specifically directed to those that have been verified as specialist in their area ....

[...]

If a member wants to post as a professional ( [e.g.,] a lawyer[]... ) ... then [he or she] must email us at the following email.

wsverify@xmission.com

Please include:

The case
Your Websleuths name
Your phone number and a good time to call
Your real name
Location (City and State)
In the subject line please put your user name and [the] case you are asking to be verified on

-- "[W]e ask that [non-verified persons] refrain from answering questions that are specifically directed to those that have been verified as specialist in their area[.]"

When does a question qualify as one "specifically directed" to verified specialists? Must the question state that it is directed to verified specialists?

-- "If a member wants to post as a professional ( [e.g.,] a lawyer[]... ) ... then [he or she] must email us ... [t]he case." "In the subject line please put ... [the] case you are asking to be verified on."

What constitutes a "case" -- is it synonymous with (a) a "thread" (or series of threads) or (b) a person (e.g., Abigail Hernandez). Let's say, for example, that because I wish to state my occupation when discussing Abigail Hernandez, I apply to post as a lawyer and identify the Abigail Hernandez case. If I go to the Maura Murray thread and, in a post observing the similarities between the disappearance of Maura Murray and that of Abigail Hernandez, I state that I am a lawyer, under the first definition of a case (a thread), I have violated the rule; I am not a lawyer for purposes of the Maura Murray thread. In contrast, applying the second definition, I have not violated the rule because my status as a "lawyer" is attached to "Abigail Hernandez" and not any specific a thread.

In short: when is a question "specifically directed" to verified specialists and does "verified" status attach to pages on this site or to persons mentioned on this site?

Thanks very much.
 
-- "[W]e ask that [non-verified persons] refrain from answering questions that are specifically directed to those that have been verified as specialist in their area[.]"

When does a question qualify as one "specifically directed" to verified specialists? Must the question state that it is directed to verified specialists?

-- "If a member wants to post as a professional ( [e.g.,] a lawyer[]... ) ... then [he or she] must email us ... [t]he case." "In the subject line please put ... [the] case you are asking to be verified on."

What constitutes a "case" -- is it synonymous with (a) a "thread" (or series of threads) or (b) a person (e.g., Abigail Hernandez). Let's say, for example, that because I wish to state my occupation when discussing Abigail Hernandez, I apply to post as a lawyer and identify the Abigail Hernandez case. If I go to the Maura Murray thread and, in a post observing the similarities between the disappearance of Maura Murray and that of Abigail Hernandez, I state that I am a lawyer, under the first definition of a case (a thread), I have violated the rule; I am not a lawyer for purposes of the Maura Murray thread. In contrast, applying the second definition, I have not violated the rule because my status as a "lawyer" is attached to "Abigail Hernandez" and not any specific a thread.

In short: when is a question "specifically directed" to verified specialists and does "verified" status attach to pages on this site or to persons mentioned on this site?

Thanks very much.

LOL. If you cannot tell this guy is a lawyer based entirely on how this post was written, well, then I just don't know what to say.
 
I too wondered if that letter to her mom was a way of trying to make it appear she ran away rather than was kidnapped. But that is just guess work. However the LE response, and that of her mother, made me think she was nearby. Again, just gut feelings, but nothing of substance beyond that.
I agree with Fireweed, I would love to see peoples' line of thinking on this which supports stranger abduction or even willing disappearance or any scenario. With little else to go on it is interesting to follow others' thoughts and how they connect the dots.
 
Etch-a-sketch Guy - some toughts.

Re the sketch that doesn't look like Kibby...to be technically accurate, it was described by LE as a "person of interest" that LE were interested in talking to regarding the alleged kidnapping--it was never described per se to be the alleged kidnapper. Though it certainly could have been described that way by AH (privately, to LE). At that time I remember wondering if it were possibly even some innocent party who may have given AH a ride if she were hitch-hiking. But LE have since stated "at this time" they aren't looking for anyone else...so who knows?

It's going to be a long month's wait to get some straight answers in this case. Just going to kick back and wait, now.

:popcorn:

I absolutely agree Poirot - these are what count as the actual "facts of the case"; info given by LE and reported in MSM. LE NEVER Said the sketch was of the kidnapper - only that they wanted to talk to him as the person "who driove her away". IMO, (not fact) Driving does not make him the kidnapper automatically. What if he were a hostage as well and just never reported it.? So when asked at the presser, Jane Young simply answered that "At this time" there were no other suspects but she left that door open saying that if that changed in the future then we will pursue it. (paraphrased)

first time poster here....hi all.... has anyone else wondered if the young woman who was seen coming and going by the neighbour was actually abby? its a possibility, i think, though pretty unlikely.

NO. Nat Kibby is charged with Class B felony kidnapping - not with being some roguish lover of teenagers. Those of us who have followed this case from day 1, who have researched, the area, the circumstances, the victim, and now have researched the accused, have always felt that Abby did not run away and did not go willing. There is no evidence of that. This man is a violent predator and historically hateful and fearful of women.

"Abby Hernandez told police that a man drove her away on Oct. 9, between 2:20 and 3 p.m., law enforcement officials said in a statement that accompanied the sketch. He was driving a navy blue pick-up, and Abby Hernandez described him as having 'darkish skin,' dark brown eyes, black stubble and a large build." [URL="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2014/07/28/mother-of-abby-hernandez-new-hampshire-teen-missing-for-months-she-did-not-run-away/"]Washington Post[/URL].

There is no indication that this information was false and the assumption that this sketch is supposed to be the kidnapper is NOT a fact in the case. (see above)

By the way, while the description that Hernandez provided is demonstrably false (e.g., she described the subject, presumably Kibby, as having "dark brown eyes"; Kibby has blue eyes), that does not necessarily mean that Hernandez intended to provided a false description.

Presumably Kibby is a fabrication - not supported by the facts in the case. ie; not stated as such by LE and ergo, not "demonstrably false." As they wanted to talk to him as a person of interest who "drove her" from Conway and have since not mentioned the sketch leads me to only one conclusion based on the facts; they now don't want to talk to him.
Speculation based on the facts is IMO, more helpful than wild fiction we keep seeing in comments and boards. For instance; "Maybe they already talked to him and he will be a major witness and won't mention him until the discovery phase, hmmm" vs. "She lied and gave false information, the sketch doesn't look like him, so therefore she must have gone willingly.ugh"

I suppose the counter argument to "not wanting to be found" would be "who in their right mind would want to be kept in a storage container". If you merely wanted to disappear, you could sit in the trailer watching tv all day and not answering the door.

Suppose the counter argument to "not wanting to be found" would be "Not wanting to be found DEAD" ?

With LE holding evidence so close to the vest, there are very many "other" possibilities regarding the sketch that don't include speculation that the sketch was the kidnapper instead of what LE actually said.

I, for one, prefer to remain victim friendly and this wild speculation is nothing short of victim bashing In My Opinion.


:cow:
 
Thanks isn't enough stele! :loveyou:

fwiw I am in complete agreement with steleheart and AmandaReckonwith
 
I too wondered if that letter to her mom was a way of trying to make it appear she ran away rather than was kidnapped. But that is just guess work. However the LE response, and that of her mother, made me think she was nearby. Again, just gut feelings, but nothing of substance beyond that.
I agree with Fireweed, I would love to see peoples' line of thinking on this which supports stranger abduction or even willing disappearance or any scenario. With little else to go on it is interesting to follow others' thoughts and how they connect the dots.

I think the LE knew she was nearby very early on in the investigation. I know that a lot of the information we have has not been totally confirmed, but it is all we have so bear with me. Apparently the letter Abby sent was postmarked October 23. Kibby was arrested in Conway at 8:30 on October 22. Assuming that he is her kidnapper, it seems highly unlikely to me that the letter was not mailed from Conway, or at least from a town close by to Conway. According to his employer, Kibby was at work the day Abby disappeared, and was also at work every other day during her disappearance until he was laid off. I do not think Kibby went anywhere far away to mail that letter, and in fact, I do not think he went anywhere far away during the past 9 months period. To me anyway, the evidence is rather clear that LE was quite certain that Abby was still in the area.

As to the FBI involvement, I have two theories on that. <modsnip>

Now, I think that in scenario two (forced to write it), the FBI would have seen that they actually had something to work with. Obviously Abby was still alive, and not only that, but her kidnapper had every intention of keeping her alive. Notice that when Abby's mom made televised pleas, she never directed her message at any sort of kidnapper. To me, one thing that could indicate is that LE really, really wanted Abby's kidnapper to feel comfortable that the "runaway" letter had worked. The message to her kidnapper was embedded in all the requests for Abby to come home - "Let Abby go. We will think she in a runaway and continue to treat her as such. Just let her go."

Again, this is the only theory that would make sense if Abby was abducted by a stranger. It would also explain why he did indeed, simply let Abby go.
 
@steleheart My question now is why do you think it is that we have not heard nary a peep from LE about etch-a-sketch man since Kibby was arrested? And how do you explain that Kibby has been charged with kidnapping Abby on October 9th on North-South road? Do you think there was another man in the car with him?

And I think all these questions are totally reasonable to ask and are in no way, shape or form "victim bashing". Determining if there are additional suspects or accomplices is victim-friendly.
 
You know I am not being sarcastic. I would actually like to hear your reasons for your conclusion. I see a lot of evidence that fits with stranger abduction, and the main one to me is Abby going completely dark on social media the very afternoon she vanishes. Also, unlike some people, I can completely fit both Abby's letter and her parents treating her like a runaway, into being a kidnap victim. Kibby makes Abby write a letter, in which she tells them she ran away. LE gets it - this guy is planning on keeping her alive. They see now how they can get her back: they will go along with the runaway thing, so that when Kibby returns her, he is relaxed, knowing that they will still think Abby just ran away. There, that is the evidence that I see of a stranger abduction.

Again, I have a lot of other evidence that points to the opposite being true.

Bingo - based on facts _ K.Ramsey of the FBI said, regarding the letter, "It was unprecedented". Based on the facts - the FBI never changed her classification to endangered runaway - I conclude they didn't believe she wrote the letter willingly. In many abduction cases the kidnapper is looking for personal recognition. LE gave him none of that and instead focused on Abby, 100%.
All the question as to why Mom never addressed the kidnapper can be answered very simply. Addressing the victim, focusing on her and ignoring the perp PERSONALIZES Abby and NOT the perp, making her more of a person than a possession. It can frustrate a kidnapper into making a move, a demand or otherwise seeking attention - he wanted LE to negotiate, or he wanted LE to acknowledge him in some way. Having researched Kibby now that we know, he has a demonstrably antisocial personality and very distinct opposition to authority, specifically the Conway PD.
I think they read it right, I think their weeks long analysis of the letter gave them the insight as to how it was written and what it could mean. I think they played it well and he gave up. IMO His escalated encounters with people and LE show the level of disturbance in his attitudes during those 9 months.
Following the case from the beginning Mom Always maintained that Abby did not run away and I feel in my gut that the FBI agreed, and helped play it up.
 
@steleheart My question now is why do you think it is that we have not heard nary a peep from LE about etch-a-sketch man since Kibby was arrested? And how do you explain that Kibby has been charged with kidnapping Abby on October 9th on North-South road? Do you think there was another man in the car with him?

And I think all these questions are totally reasonable to ask and are in no way, shape or form "victim bashing". Determining if there are additional suspects or accomplices is victim-friendly.

I believe I stated that possibility in my post. As an alternative possibility to the one that assumes the sketch was false or supposed to be the kidnapper. There are many possibilities.
I personally think she gave kibby's information on day 1. Possibly she only remembered his name that weekend. But I think characterizing the sketch the way they did indicates (to me) based on their statements, that LE never considered him the kidnapper.
 
Bingo - based on facts _ K.Ramsey of the FBI said, regarding the letter, "It was unprecedented". Based on the facts - the FBI never changed her classification to endangered runaway - I conclude they didn't believe she wrote the letter willingly. In many abduction cases the kidnapper is looking for personal recognition. LE gave him none of that and instead focused on Abby, 100%.
All the question as to why Mom never addressed the kidnapper can be answered very simply. Addressing the victim, focusing on her and ignoring the perp PERSONALIZES Abby and NOT the perp, making her more of a person than a possession. It can frustrate a kidnapper into making a move, a demand or otherwise seeking attention - he wanted LE to negotiate, or he wanted LE to acknowledge him in some way. Having researched Kibby now that we know, he has a demonstrably antisocial personality and very distinct opposition to authority, specifically the Conway PD.
I think they read it right, I think their weeks long analysis of the letter gave them the insight as to how it was written and what it could mean. I think they played it well and he gave up. IMO His escalated encounters with people and LE show the level of disturbance in his attitudes during those 9 months.
Following the case from the beginning Mom Always maintained that Abby did not run away and I feel in my gut that the FBI agreed, and helped play it up.

That is good theory for kidnapping based entirely on the facts as we know them. It could also explain why this man was never charged with a sex crime - maybe, as you say, he kidnapped her just to tick off the "authorities" and so his motivation was not what is expected in a case like this.

I am still baffled as to how Kibby was not on their radar during this time. He got off work at the same time Abby disappeared, and he had a history of writing anti-police stuff, both online and in his court documents.

Oh yeah, I forgot to add: this man has no history as any sort of a sex offender. I wonder if maybe LE was looking at the wrong people the whole time.
 
Abby's courage, her willingness to cooperate, the defiant looks she gave Kibby in the courtroom, to me speak volumes and dispel any notion that she was a willing participant, did not cooperate or was otherwise complicit in this god-awful crime.
 
Abby's courage, her willingness to cooperate, the defiant looks she gave Kibby in the courtroom, to me speak volumes and dispel any notion that she was a willing participant, did not cooperate or was otherwise complicit in this god-awful crime.

I wholeheartedly agree, Steleheart.

I'm in the minority here, but I do not think the sketch was somebody else. I do see the the hair to be an exact match and so are the eyebrows. Those are two distinct features which differentiates him from other people. Those two features are very important and they are on the sketch. Those two features would be what one could remember the most, because for the rest his face does not stand out in other ways. The eye color not matching isn't a concern for me either, because even though in reality he has blue eyes, on some of the pictures they do appear dark. We have no idea under which light conditions Abby used to see him, and neither have we an idea through which kind of mental filter she saw him because of the trauma she experienced. I can't even imagine all the emotions she must have been feeling those first few days when she finally got home and began to work with police, or how she must be feeling now. She was most likely very confused the first few days. She was a child when she disappeared and she is still a child now.
 
I wholeheartedly agree, Steleheart.

I'm in the minority here, but I do not think the sketch was somebody else. I do see the the hair to be an exact match and so are the eyebrows. Those are two distinct features which differentiates him from other people. Those two features are very important and they are on the sketch. Those two features would be what one could remember the most, because for the rest his face does not stand out in other ways. The eye color not matching isn't a concern for me either, because even though in reality he has blue eyes, on some of the pictures they do appear dark. We have no idea under which light conditions Abby used to see him, and neither have we an idea through which kind of mental filter she saw him because of the trauma she experienced. I can't even imagine all the emotions she must have been feeling those first few days when she finally got home and began to work with police, or how she must be feeling now. She was most likely very confused the first few days. She was a child when she disappeared and she is still a child now.

I agree. I think the sketch is a pretty decent match, myself.
 

Members online

Online statistics

Members online
156
Guests online
2,186
Total visitors
2,342

Forum statistics

Threads
602,215
Messages
18,136,981
Members
231,273
Latest member
GeeFab
Back
Top