GUILTY NH - AH, 14, North Conway, 9 October 2013 - # 9

[SurfieTX]

Pretty impressive that a 14-year-old has managed to evade the local and state police as well as the FBI for this long as well as leaving zero trace as to where she might have gone and whom she is with.

 

[LittleRose]

Pretty impressive that a 14-year-old has managed to evade the local and state police as well as the FBI for this long as well as leaving zero trace as to where she might have gone and whom she is with.

I agree.

Either:
1. She's intelligent, well-read, and organized;
2. She was/is well-coached; or
3. She was abducted.


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[Bodhi]

I agree.

Either:
1. She's intelligent, well-read, and organized;
2. She was/is well-coached; or
3. She was abducted.


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I agree. I just want to add a possible reason she has not been located. Scenarios 1, 2, or 3 are all possibilities. The letter to ZH indicates Abigail was alive at that point. If she is now deceased (and I hope not!), finding her body would be difficult. And there would be no more breadcrumbs like the letter to follow.

 

[Mom24]

You can read the full letter on Ruben Hernandez's facebook page as well as the MHFAH facebook page. I'm still not convinced AH ran away, RH just says he "assumes" she ran away, not that he's sure she did. I think they're merely still not taking anything off the table.

 

[MamaJoJo]

No matter what has happened to Abby, I am still hoping she can have a safe and loved life. The letters from her parents do seem like they believe she has run away on her own accord and that she's in control of her return. From what has been portrayed of Abby, she doesn't seem like a selfish drug-addled child who simply wanted to get away from restrictive parents, IMO. If she ran, and that's a big if for me (even now), then she probably had a good reason. But, as I type this, maybe it was a good reason to a fifteen year old not to an adult.

What I don't understand, is why, if she's safe, hasn't she written another letter? My goodness, if you are going to write one letter, why not send another? Let's say she feels some guilt for running away...then you'd think she'd reach out again just to let her mom know she's still alive. Let's say she's really mad at her parents...then why send the letter in the first place? Just to mess with ZH? IMO, if she wrote the first letter without coercion then I believe she'd write another.

LE has not classified her as a runaway and has said that there are grave concerns for her safety. I will keep my hope alive for Abby to walk through her door someday, happy and well.

Abby, if you are freely out there, find your way to a safe life. Maybe that's coming home, maybe not.

 

[laura182]

Does anyone think that certain parts of the communication from her parents seem staged? MOO of course since I am not aware of how her parents regularly speak or how they would talk to her in this stressful situation. Perhaps they are being told to act as though they believe she ran away as part of the investigation?

 

[tlcya]

SPECULATION:

If Abigail is being held or coerced by an adult, this adult is willfully breaking the law despite lots of active LE involvement, including the FBI. That person's motivations would be suspect IMO to LE agencies investigating.

I believe that letters and statements from mom and dad are being carefully crafted to suggest that if Abigial showed up tomorrow with a tale that she had run away, all will be okay, all can be forgiven. IMO this could lead to the greatest odds that the possible adult assistor or captor would release or drop Abigail off somewhere to return home while feeling secure that no harm needs to come to Abigail and the adult involved could still fade into the background, never facing consequence or prosecution.

I feel very strongly that any statements or letters addressing Abigail from her parents have been very carefully worded and crafted to give an adult involved just this impression.

 

[BillNH]

What would you expect the parents to do? LE is conducting the search from the criminal aspect, at least the parents can explore the runaway angle. It certainly seems that they think she has run away but it could just be the only scenario they can have some impact on. Honestly, as a parent, sitting on my hands through Thanksgiving and Christmas waiting for LE to bring my child home would get very old, very fast. Even if I did not believe that my child would have intentionally run off, since there really is no evidence leaning one way or another, I would certainly give a heartfelt letter through social media a try on the off chance it could have happened. Nothing to lose, IMO.

I think the risk they take by doing this is that people are starting to turn away from the case thinking she is a runaway. Just look at the posts above, the tone has changed already for some. I personally think all options are open, and I believe LE is under that same impression.

 

[Bodhi]

I agree, tlcya. The parents' postings provide the most cover to end up with the result they want: Abigail safe and home. I don't accept at face value that they believe she is willingly staying away. They want to maximize the chance she will come home.

All the possibilities (except accident) when Abigail was first reported missing still exist. Her parents' statements are to let Abby know that they love her, they want her home, and they will stand by her come what may.

Children who have been abducted and assaulted or even runaways who end up in unsavory situations in order to survive often think they are damaged and that their parents would not want them back. It seems like two separate realities: then and now.

Abducted children who are held long term and survive adapt to their new realities. The mental chains binding them to their captors can hold them after physical restraints are not used. Shawn Hornbeck and Jaycee Dugard are two instances of kidnapped children who did what it took to survive.

Shawn was restrained and terrorized by his captor. Eventually, as he adapted to survive in his new life, Shawn was allowed Internet access. He even posted on the website his parents created asking how long they would look for their son. He was allowed overnights at a friend's house and was nonresponsive when asked by adults if he was Shawn Hornbeck.

Jaycee Dugard was held in extreme isolation and dependence for most of her 18 years in captivity. The children she had as a young girl herself exacerbated her dependence and vulnerability. When she worked in her captors' printing business in the last few years as the physical constraints were relaxed, Jaycee had limited contact with others but was not able to reveal her identity or seek help.

I applaud Abigail's parents for making every effort to let her know she will always be welcomed home no matter what and that they will stand by her.

 

[Spider92]

It does doesnt it. Writing letters on Facebook , then the media picks them up and reports them . I think there is no doubt they know she is on the internet , they post there first, and seem to be trolling her for a reaction .

lease:

EDIT: It also seems that LE has stepped back , letting Mom and Dad handle this . I would say if they suspected she was being held and in danger they would NOT be letting this sort of communication go on , as it could spur a negative reaction from her " captor " .

I think that Abby's parents are following the runaway script because it's the only scenario that they can reasonably expect to have any control. If Abby is a runaway, then they should continue to reach out. If it turns out that Abby has been abducted, then I don't believe their efforts will do any harm ( as others have pointed out, they may even help under that scenario). As the general public, I think we need to be open equally to all scenarios and keep looking. I just sent some flyers up to Maine where my folks work at a food pantry for the hungry. Somebody must have some knowledge in this case and we need to find that person. This is still early in the process compared to some cases I see on this site and I plan to keep looking.

 

[BillNH]

What would you expect the parents to do? LE is conducting the search from the criminal aspect, at least the parents can explore the runaway angle. It certainly seems that they think she has run away but it could just be the only scenario they can have some impact on. Honestly, as a parent, sitting on my hands through Thanksgiving and Christmas waiting for LE to bring my child home would get very old, very fast. Even if I did not believe that my child would have intentionally run off, since there really is no evidence leaning one way or another, I would certainly give a heartfelt letter through social media a try on the off chance it could have happened. Nothing to lose, IMO.

I think the risk they take by doing this is that people are starting to turn away from the case thinking she is a runaway. Just look at the posts above, the tone has changed already for some. I personally think all options are open, and I believe LE is under that same impression.

Trying to post a well rounded comment... I forgot to add that it is possible that Abby running away is what her parents believe happened. I would be more inclined to think, based on how this case has progressed, that they really have no idea and are exploring all avenues.

 

[Cardinal47]

Pretty impressive that a 14-year-old has managed to evade the local and state police as well as the FBI for this long as well as leaving zero trace as to where she might have gone and whom she is with.

It would be if it was true. This story has morphed and is like a snowball rolling downhill. All the what if's in the world are not bringing Abby home.

My own conclusion is that a 14 year old girl CANNOT hide from the FBI this long with no financial backing. She cannot sustain life with no money and no protection.

If that protection comes from somebody in the US the FBI would have swooped down and plucked Abby from their clutches.

If Abby is with relatives outside of the USA like Mexico or PR then I don't know what the laws are as far as rescuing a 15 year old child and bringing her home to her custodial mother.

Personally I think Abby is in heaven. And I think it happened just after she went missing. I also think since the LE left the crack in the door saying we 'think' the letter is from Abby I am opening that crack and saying..I don't believe it was. MOO is it is a great fake.

MOO

 

[LittleRose]

It would be if it was true. This story has morphed and is like a snowball rolling downhill. All the what if's in the world are not bringing Abby home.



My own conclusion is that a 14 year old girl CANNOT hide from the FBI this long with no financial backing. She cannot sustain life with no money and no protection.



If that protection comes from somebody in the US the FBI would have swooped down and plucked Abby from their clutches.



If Abby is with relatives outside of the USA like Mexico or PR then I don't know what the laws are as far as rescuing a 15 year old child and bringing her home to her custodial mother.



Personally I think Abby is in heaven. And I think it happened just after she went missing. I also think since the LE left the crack in the door saying we 'think' the letter is from Abby I am opening that crack and saying..I don't believe it was. MOO is it is a great fake.



MOO

This is my fear. That she is gone and the psychopath responsible knew her writing well-enough to copy the tone. I think her dad is questioning the letter's authenticity as well. He's asking for another letter with a sign only Abby and her folks would know- the Bible quote or name of the character in the story she tried to get published.


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[cluciano63]

If Abigail is alive, obviously she is with someone, or a group of people. I think that is almost a given at this point.

But if she went to this person willingly and with a plan, she may still be enjoying her "new life". Maybe she told this person she was in danger or being abused, so they think they are helping her. Or maybe, like in an old mystery series I watched last night, she was impatient to grow up and begin her life and could not face almost four more years of high school.

The letter clearly gave her mom comfort, so it was not, IMO, in any way a cry for help. And since LE was no closer to finding her, I am not convinced she was forced to write it. It is not like LE closed the file when it arrived. So it did serve much of a purpose except to let her mom know, presumably, she was okay.

No one seems to be addressing an abductor very often, with all of these communications. I just do not know what to think.

 

[carolann0308]

Personally I think Abby is in heaven. And I think it happened just after she went missing. I also think since the LE left the crack in the door saying we 'think' the letter is from Abby I am opening that crack and saying..I don't believe it was. MOO is it is a great fake. MOO

I hope you're wrong but I do agree with you. I think if the letter was from Abby in her handwriting, the contents would have been published, for no reason other than to relieve the parents and kids in the town of any fears of abduction themselves. I think the letter is from the person(s) that know what happened to her.

My reasons are:

She did not pack a bag.
She did not leave a note.
She went to all her classes that day and behaved normally.
She has no financial means.
No names of older boys or men have been released that she was communicating with, all other recent runaway cases included photos of men so people could actually look for a couple.
No online presence, no phone calls where there was heavy usage up until the moment of disappearance
Her young BF appeared to be someone that she really cared about. He or her best friend would know something.
She did not vent to her friends about a potentially bad situation at home, in fact her FB page was upbeat and showed her spirituality. We all know kids talk about everything. If she told one person there was an issue, the town gossip train would be a full speed by now.
There are many local FB pages, if there was anything hinky at home they would be talking about it and they are all just as puzzled as we are.
The FB pages are just copies of the missing poster, if any of her real friends believed she was out there they would all be posting constantly.

I hope I am wrong, but the lack of contact at Christmas has convinced me. I am scared for Abby and the other girls in NC. I think there is a really bad guy out there.

 

[Radichio77885]

If I were 14-15 and decided to runaway...I think I would at least pack a suitcase of clothes, unless I was pregnant and wouldn't be needing my old clothes in the near future.

[SBM]

The other option regarding not packing any clothes could be that you are traveling with (or to) another female who wears your size OR that you are heading to a warmer climate where a couple of pairs of shorts, a few T-shirts and a sweatshirt is enough of a starter wardrobe for a while. JMO.

 

[BillNH]

I hope you're wrong but I do agree with you. I think if the letter was from Abby in her handwriting, the contents would have been published, for no reason other than to relieve the parents and kids in the town of any fears of abduction themselves. I think the letter is from the person(s) that know what happened to her.

My reasons are:

She did not pack a bag.
She did not leave a note.
She went to all her classes that day and behaved normally.
She has no financial means.
No names of older boys or men have been released that she was communicating with, all other recent runaway cases included photos of men so people could actually look for a couple.
No online presence, no phone calls where there was heavy usage up until the moment of disappearance
Her young BF appeared to be someone that she really cared about. He or her best friend would know something.
She did not vent to her friends about a potentially bad situation at home, in fact her FB page was upbeat and showed her spirituality. We all know kids talk about everything. If she told one person there was an issue, the town gossip train would be a full speed by now.
There are many local FB pages, if there was anything hinky at home they would be talking about it and they are all just as puzzled as we are.
The FB pages are just copies of the missing poster, if any of her real friends believed she was out there they would all be posting constantly.

I hope I am wrong, but the lack of contact at Christmas has convinced me. I am scared for Abby and the other girls in NC. I think there is a really bad guy out there.

BBM

I don't think they would ever be so veiled in a warning to the community. If there was a threat to others, they would say so, no playing games. So the way I see it, they are fairly certain she left on her own, or that she was the only target of a particular abductor, which usually means family.

 

[Annie1004]

As much as I would like to believe AH is alive, at this point I do not think so. She missed her birthday, Thanksgiving and Christmas. While the letter allegedly from AH was a hopeful sign, if she has not communicated since, then there must be a reason. I cannot believe AH would put her parents through so much torture if she was able to contact them.

Unless AH voluntarily vanished, I can't fathom what really happened to her. IMHO only. (Or maybe I am discouraged.)

 

[takeitfromme412]

Please remember that running away is uncharacteristic of this child...

 

[DanaK]

Please remember that running away is uncharacteristic of this child...

It hasnt been " TAKEN OFF THE TABLE "