Found Deceased NH - Hiker Emily Sotelo, from MA, dropped off in Franconia, Lafayette trailhead, Hiking Mounts Lafayette, Haystack & Flume, 20 Nov 2022

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Would you have included hiking poles in this hike with the weather conditions described?

This 48 hikes sounds more like trail running to me, than hiking. That is a much more spare approach to what you are carrying in the outdoors.
I personally don't have hiking poles, but if the trail conditions warrant I'll use XC ski poles. XC Ski racing was my core sport in high school/college, so that's the gear I'm most comfortable with, and it works good for me in the hiking I've done. In the conditions described in this incident, I would not have been hiking in that area. I would have looked for a less snowy spot, perhaps something lower elevation.

The 48 4000'ers in NH, for what I think of as the average hiker, are a combination of everything from trail running terrain to hardcore hiking. On the trail running side are peaks like Hale and Waumbek, both well under 5 miles round trip and no severe sections. On the hardcore side are Owl's Head which is about 18.5 miles (if you stay on the official trails and don't use the bushwhacks) with a bunch of water crossings although not a ton of elevation gain, the Presidential Range which has a lot of challenging footing, and the Bonds which are pretty isolated. You really need to do your research to get the specifics about each hike in this area before you go.
 
I am not really sure what I think. I think sadly the most likely explanation is she slipped and hurt herself somewhere on the trail. Growing up I spent a lot of time in the Catskill and Adirondack mountains in NY and I was really unprepared when we started hiking in NH for how rocky it is - even on "easier" sections. It is very easy to slip. This time and early spring can be the most dangerous because until there is a deep snowpack, you're walking on ice on rock. When it warms up enough in the sun to melt the snow and then it freezes overnight it gets really treacherous.

But my comments this morning were stemming from thinking about heading down there today to see if I could take any useful pictures without getting my almost 40 year old self stuck on a trail in the snow myself. That's when I realized it was the other side of the highway and it felt hinky to me. But I think the comments after my initial posts make sense that her mom really dropped her off at the Bridle Path trailhead off 93N (since she was coming from the south anyway) and either her mom or F&G just listed the Lafayette Campground as the closest widely known marker.
Hopefully her parents are now on-site and have clearly pointed out where she went.
 
Here is a video of a hiker doing Mount Flume to Mount Lafayette to give you a sense of what the trail is like.
Obviously this wasn't taken in November, but visibility got poor near the peaks due to cloud cover. I can only imagine what it must be like if you lose visibility and are hiking on slippery or snow-covered rocks. Add to this short daylight hours.

Mount Flume to Mount Lafayette

This hiker said their route was 16.6 miles and it took them 9.5 hours.
 
I personally don't have hiking poles, but if the trail conditions warrant I'll use XC ski poles. XC Ski racing was my core sport in high school/college, so that's the gear I'm most comfortable with, and it works good for me in the hiking I've done. In the conditions described in this incident, I would not have been hiking in that area. I would have looked for a less snowy spot, perhaps something lower elevation.

The 48 4000'ers in NH, for what I think of as the average hiker, are a combination of everything from trail running terrain to hardcore hiking. On the trail running side are peaks like Hale and Waumbek, both well under 5 miles round trip and no severe sections. On the hardcore side are Owl's Head which is about 18.5 miles (if you stay on the official trails and don't use the bushwhacks) with a bunch of water crossings although not a ton of elevation gain, the Presidential Range which has a lot of challenging footing, and the Bonds which are pretty isolated. You really need to do your research to get the specifics about each hike in this area before you go.
I bring poles. My experienced friend doesn’t. But they have snow attachments.
 
As the mom of a similar-aged daughter, I can't imagine what this mom/family must be going through right now and have an enormous amount of compassion (and frankly dread) for this family. I can see this as a series of bad judgments adding up to a catastrophic situation. One scenario I can see is an incredibly determined almost-20 year old convincing her mom she knows best (she has done 40 already!), that this is the one thing she is asking for for her birthday. She can do it in a day - she has done similar hikes without a problem. Maybe the mom doesn't have much outdoor knowledge. Maybe Emily has taken risks on some of her other hikes but they all turned out fine in the end.

I guess in the face of what might turn out to be the worst Thanksgiving of this family's life, I see all those bad decisions but I can't find it in myself to judge this mom with what I know given the likely outcome. I'm guessing she may be doing that to herself already.
It could also be a difference in culture - I don’t know if her mom grew up in the USA and maybe just trusted her daughter.
Here in Italy I can see that some Italian parents living in the USA might just trust their American raised kid’s judgment and let the kid do what they say makes sense.
MOO and just a possibility of difference of culture - maybe.
 
Here is a video of a hiker doing Mount Flume to Mount Lafayette to give you a sense of what the trail is like.
Obviously this wasn't taken in November, but visibility got poor near the peaks due to cloud cover. I can only imagine what it must be like if you lose visibility and are hiking on slippery or snow-covered rocks. Add to this short daylight hours.

Mount Flume to Mount Lafayette

This hiker said their route was 16.6 miles and it took them 9.5 hours.
I can’t imagine doing the first part of that in the dark or near dark.
I see lots of spots where one could confuse the trail.
 
The only time I hiked in that area was years ago while thru-hiking the AT. Does anyone know if there are any side trails she might have used to try and bail on her planned agenda? Maybe realized she was in trouble, could not complete the planned hike. I'd guess SAR has considered this and have rescuers checking potential side trails. If she did do this, is it possible she could have tried to get to one of the huts?
Not much for side trails once you start up Old Bridle Trail to Lafayette, but there are some herd paths. To access Lafayette, you can go up that trail or up Falling Waters to Little Haystack, but that would require backtracking on the ridge 1.6 miles over Lincoln to get to Lafayette. If she stuck to the route it's said she planed to do, if she got to Lafayette and decided to bail on the full loop she planned she could have headed down Falling Waters. The next trail south of there is 1.9 miles south of Little Haystack peak, Liberty Spring Trail.

I don't think any huts in that area, other than Greenleaf Hut which would have been on her way up to Lafayette, about 2.9 miles from the trailhead. Liberty Spring has a tent site.

I was also thinking, what if she got to Franconia Ridge and got disoriented and bailed out to the east instead of the west. There are no trails that drop down from Franconia Ridge to the east in that area at all but I know some people have bushwhacked from Franconia Ridge to Lincoln Brook Trail.
 
Here is a video of a hiker doing Mount Flume to Mount Lafayette to give you a sense of what the trail is like.
Obviously this wasn't taken in November, but visibility got poor near the peaks due to cloud cover. I can only imagine what it must be like if you lose visibility and are hiking on slippery or snow-covered rocks. Add to this short daylight hours.

Mount Flume to Mount Lafayette

This hiker said their route was 16.6 miles and it took them 9.5 hours.
That's tough. Some places the trail is easy to find, some places not so much especially if there is any snow.

Lot's of potential for injury, lots of opportunity to end up off-trail with an injury.
 
The only time I hiked in that area was years ago while thru-hiking the AT. Does anyone know if there are any side trails she might have used to try and bail on her planned agenda? Maybe realized she was in trouble, could not complete the planned hike. I'd guess SAR has considered this and have rescuers checking potential side trails. If she did do this, is it possible she could have tried to get to one of the huts?

It looks to me like the only way to bail before Mount Lafayette is to turn around and go back the way you came. Once you hit the peak of Mount Lafayette your next chance to get down a trail to shorten the hike is after passing Liberty peak and heading down a trail at Little Haystack peak. Not a lot of side trails.

Mount Lafayette trail.JPG
 
Question for the hikers here. Specifically those that know the route she took. If SAR followed the trail she intended to hike, presumably they would have found her by now?? TIA
If she stayed on the trail, yes. If she left the trail by maybe only 20'-30' in the wooded areas, maybe not. All the trails in that area are heavily wooded until you get above treeline. It's been a few years, but if I remember correctly Old Bridle Path is mostly wooded, Greenleaf Trail is open not too far after the hut. The ridge is almost all open. Falling Waters Tr, Liberty Spring Tr, Flume Slide Tr are mostly wooded.
 
Not much for side trails once you start up Old Bridle Trail to Lafayette, but there are some herd paths. To access Lafayette, you can go up that trail or up Falling Waters to Little Haystack, but that would require backtracking on the ridge 1.6 miles over Lincoln to get to Lafayette. If she stuck to the route it's said she planed to do, if she got to Lafayette and decided to bail on the full loop she planned she could have headed down Falling Waters. The next trail south of there is 1.9 miles south of Little Haystack peak, Liberty Spring Trail.

I don't think any huts in that area, other than Greenleaf Hut which would have been on her way up to Lafayette, about 2.9 miles from the trailhead. Liberty Spring has a tent site.

I was also thinking, what if she got to Franconia Ridge and got disoriented and bailed out to the east instead of the west. There are no trails that drop down from Franconia Ridge to the east in that area at all but I know some people have bushwhacked from Franconia Ridge to Lincoln Brook Trail.
Thanks for your local insight.
I posted my comment about side trails before I saw your response. Clearly you know the area and I don't. I was just going by the AllTrails map that I posted.
You mention the Greenleaf Hut on the way up to Lafayette. In the YouTube hiker video a posted above the hiker had hoped to stop at the hut on her way down from Lafayette, but it was closed. Do you know if the huts are just open in certain months?
 
It looks to me like the only way to bail before Mount Lafayette is to turn around and go back the way you came. Once you hit the peak of Mount Lafayette your next chance to get down a trail to shorten the hike is after passing Liberty peak and heading down a trail at Little Haystack peak. Not a lot of side trails.

View attachment 381911
Let's say she did decide to bail... She might try to climb down a gully or a wash. If she did that on the wrong side she could be way off-trail.
 
Let's say she did decide to bail... She might try to climb down a gully or a wash. If she did that on the wrong side she could be way off-trail.

Seems that the searchers are checking the washes. That's a lot of territory to cover though and tough conditions!
I hope they all stay safe, including our own @RickshawFan !


New Hampshire search crews continue to look for missing 19-year-old hiker

Eighteen search-and-rescue crews continued the search Monday.

"For us, we're doing drainages. We're going up the rivers and streams that come down," said Charlie Stewart, of Pemi Valley Search & Rescue. "We'll follow them up until we get close to the ridge and then cut over and come down another one."

"It certainly can be done in a day," said Fish and Game Capt. Michael Eastman. "A hiker in good shape can probably do it in no time in summer conditions, but the conditions we had yesterday -- high winds, temperatures, varied conditions -- you have, in the higher elevations, snow up to your chest."
 
Here is the search and rescue team’s Facebook page:


 
Here is the search and rescue team’s Facebook page:


What an awesome org. This pic that they posted at that link of Franconia Notch at night, after a pre-5:00 PM sunset, is astounding. This man had a headlamp - I haven’t seen any reports that Emily did. What I find so striking is, it is as pitch-black as it gets. There is no ambient light at all.

80D21566-C002-4465-88B8-57FCAFFD7F84.jpeg
 
Thanks for your local insight.
I posted my comment about side trails before I saw your response. Clearly you know the area and I don't. I was just going by the AllTrails map that I posted.
You mention the Greenleaf Hut on the way up to Lafayette. In the YouTube hiker video a posted above the hiker had hoped to stop at the hut on her way down from Lafayette, but it was closed. Do you know if the huts are just open in certain months?
Pretty sure Greenleaf Hut closed for the season on October 15. It will reopen May 5, 2023 - May 28, 2023 for "self service", and then will be back to full service on June 2, 2023.
 
Hi. If I may add a few details about the surrounding topography.. over the years I've been up there several times and I'll quickly note that the terrain, and especially the weather, can be extreme.(for many years we used to be the volunteer AMC trail Adopters and maintainers of the Osseo Trail- the only official trail to the summit of Mt Flume from the SW on the Pemi Wilderness side)

On paper the route Emily was planning to take may look easy, but in reality, this is a strenuous and potentially punishing route even to a veteran hiker. Very rocky and exposed, with lots of ice under the fresh snow. She obviously knows the NH mountains as she's working on & almost finished her NH48.. I know from experience that "Summit Fever" to check one off the list can blind someone to their gut telling them to turn back. Especially for a young hiker determined to complete her list! This of course may have come into play here.

The Greenleaf Hut has been closed since late October and it's securely buttoned up so no chance to go inside. Also, she may have decided to "beeline" it downhill back to the "safety" of I-93.. that's why SAR is checking the drainages.. what the maps don't convey is the extreme terrain one can encounter (easily getting cliffed-out).. the drainages are really extremely steep land slides with cliffs, loose icy scree, and impenetrable spruce trees. Trying to drop off the east side of the ridge- into the Pemi Wilderness- is a whole different set of variables especially in these winter conditions. Only a highly experienced and well equipped hiker with wilderness skills would attempt this. Another note about conditions on the Franconia Ridge Trail.. the current winds and fresh loose powder snow can quickly erase footprints of anyone who may wander off trail or try to bushwhack down off the ridges to "safety". To compound things, if this is what she tried to do, snow filled krumholz (low, thick spruce trees) & "Spruce Traps" will quickly turn your life to misery and potentially broken bones, especially with only sneakers/running shoes on.

On a side note, from the Lafayette campground entrance there is a huge culvert under the highway that the trail crosses under. Also, cell phone service is non-existent in Franconia Notch/Pemi Wilderness except near the summits.

We're truly hoping for a positive outcome for this young girl and our thoughts are with her family and all searchers involved!
 

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