AMBER ALERT NJ - Dulce Mariá Alavez, 5, abducted at Bridgeton City Park, Cumberland County, 16 Sept 2019 #5

[oceanstarryeyes]

I think they were followed from the the store when they bought ice cream. It happened so fast as soon as they arrived at the park. It seems like it was preplanned. Either a stranger that followed them from the store to the park or someone that followed them from school or home to the store to the park in a preplanned abduction.

 

[Steelslady]

The Coconut ice cream Dulce was eating... is that popular? I’m in Canada and it’s not a recognizable treat here. I ask as; I’d be wanting to search landfills / garbage cans for that packaging and anything else connected to it. Garbage generally gets thrown out.

Yes it is- amongst several cultures. Hispanic, Asian, and Indian foods have coconut in recipes of all kinds- from oil to milk, dinner to dessert.

 

[rosesfromangels]

http://www.city-data.com/city/Bridgeton-New-Jersey.html

There are a couple things I want to point out with the attached city data about Bridgeton.

First, a huge spike in rapes from 2015-17. (2017 is the latest data on rapes). Also, a high unemployment rate of 8.2% vs. 4.1% for Jersey overall, and 3.7% for the U.S.

I wish I had the rape data on 2018 to present, but if that concerning spike continued, it could possibly suggest a serial rapist in that area. Not knowing the age of the victims, it's hard to surmise if the Victims included children.

Given this alarming rape data for Bridgeton, I firmly speculate this was a local Perp. Someone who looked familiar at that park/playground area. Someone who wasn't a local who frequented that playground/ball area would have stood out like a sore thumb.

It's a local. A known.

Amateur opinion and speculation

 

[oceanstarryeyes]

.

 

[Nadal]

http://www.city-data.com/city/Bridgeton-New-Jersey.html

There are a couple things I want to point out with the attached city data about Bridgeton.

First, a huge spike in rapes from 2015-17. (2017 is the latest data on rapes). Also, a high unemployment rate of 8.2% vs. 4.1% for Jersey overall, and 3.7% for the U.S.

I wish I had the rape data on 2018 to present, but if that concerning spike continued, it could possibly suggest a serial rapist in that area. Not knowing the age of the victims, it's hard to surmise if the Victims included children.

Given this alarming rape data for Bridgeton, I firmly speculate this was a local Perp. Someone who looked familiar at that park/playground area. Someone who wasn't a local who frequented that playground/ball area would have stood out like a sore thumb.

It's a local. A known.

Amateur opinion and speculation

You have to account for population growth in the area and sexual assault arrests in the area since 2017, two things that can drastically change anything you determine from that data. I mean the rape rate fell by nearly half between 2013-2015, yet between 2011-2012 it halved, and between 2009-2010 it increased by 5. It's a tiny population size so drastic swings like that aren't really indicative of much, one rapist could make a major impact.

 

[rosesfromangels]

one rapist could make a major impact.

Respectfully snipped for focus.
And that is exactly my point.

 

[Nadal]

Respectfully snipped for focus.
And that is exactly my point.

Think most of us agree there's most likely a rapist in the area. You including statistics seemed to imply there's a rape problem in the area which i disagree with considering population size and national averages. Apologies if i misinterpreted your inclusion of the stats but i don't understand why you'd include them otherwise.

 

[rosesfromangels]

Think most of us agree there's most likely a rapist in the area. You including statistics seemed to imply there's a rape problem in the area which i disagree with considering population size and national averages. Apologies if i misinterpreted your inclusion of the stats but i don't understand why you'd include them otherwise.

Yes, I am suggesting there is a prolific rapist who came to town, or "activated" during the 2015-2017 timeframe where they went from 7 rapes/yr. to 22 rapes/yr. in that timeframe. Something different happened. Who was paroled and went to live or work there, etc?

That's what I'm trying to shine the spotlight on, or simply reinforce conclusions already arrived at. And you are right. For a town that small, a leap from 7 to 22 rapes is very material, and will likely be isolated to a single miscreant.

BTW - city data does normalize the data by looking at rapes per 100K populace.

Amateur opinion and speculation.

 

[Sweetsbeach]

Yes, I am suggesting their is a prolific rapist who came to town, or "activated" during the 2015-2017 timeframe where they went from 7 rapes/yr. to 22 rapes/yr. in that timeframe. Something different happened. Who was paroled and went to live or work there, etc?

That's what I'm trying to shine the spotlight on, or simply reinforce conclusions already arrived at. And you are right. For a town that small, a leap from 7 to 22 rapes is very material, and will no doubt be isolated to a single miscreant.

Amateur opinion and speculation.

Ugh...That actually does seem like a big jump IMO. Regardless if it's one predator or several, it's unsettling.

 

[rosesfromangels]

Ugh...That actually does seem like a big jump IMO. Regardless if it's one predator or several, it's unsettling.

It is unsettling. However, it should help LE focus their investigation, I would think. What "events" transpired in that timeframe that can be correlated? (New S.O. to the area, etc.)

Criminals are dumb; we can track them via stats.

Amateur opinion and speculation

 

[Nadal]

Yes, I am suggesting there is a prolific rapist who came to town, or "activated" during the 2015-2017 timeframe where they went from 7 rapes/yr. to 22 rapes/yr. in that timeframe. Something different happened. Who was paroled and went to live or work there, etc?

That's what I'm trying to shine the spotlight on, or simply reinforce conclusions already arrived at. And you are right. For a town that small, a leap from 7 to 22 rapes is very material, and will likely be isolated to a single miscreant.

Amateur opinion and speculation.

88.2 rapes per 100000 was only the second highest rate of rapes since 2003 in the area, 2006's 87.6 was just below and 2003's 92.2 was higher. Both drastically dropped the year after the former by as much as 59. Do you realize if a rapist with more than one victim has been arrested since 2017 it would drastically reduce the rape rate in the area since there's only 20-30 thousand residents? You can't assume anything without up to date data because the population is so small it's easy for things to fluctuate.

 

[rosesfromangels]

88.2 rapes per 100000 was only the second highest rate of rapes since 2003 in the area, 2006's 87.6 was just below and 2003's 92.2 was higher. Both drastically dropped the year after the former by as much as 59. Do you realize if a rapist with more than one victim has been arrested since 2017 it would drastically reduce the rape rate in the area since there's only 20-30 thousand residents? You can't assume anything without up to date data because the population is so small it's easy for things to fluctuate.

Agree to that.
However, I would think directionally, it's worthy of consideration.

 

[Nadal]

Ugh...That actually does seem like a big jump IMO. Regardless if it's one predator or several, it's unsettling.

It's misleading, one rapist could've made an impact on those numbers and we don't have up to date numbers so we have no idea if that person has been arrested. Look at how much the numbers jump up and down, pay particular attention to the rate of rapes per resident. It drops by more than half more than once which is clearly because of one or a couple of arrests.

 

[Beekarina]

Curious, why would Dulce's kidnapper(s) have stood out?

If the person(s) who took Dulce were a young Hispanic, (and possible a,second young Black man, although that seems more like the 911 operator filling in details?) neither would seem to stand out from what I've seen of videos of the area. Especially if guys were hanging out playing ball, nice day, etc.

The playground is small, but the park itself is not. It's not a really small town where you're totally suspect it you're from "away".

It doesn't sound as though anyone driving around taking pictures was questioned. I think most people are just doing their own thing, and probably paying more attention to cellphones than noticing the people around them.

 

[Nadal]

All hispanic people don't look the same. Could've had a distinctive face just like any white person does. Would a white person never stand out to you because it's a mainly white area?

 

[rosesfromangels]

All hispanic people don't look the same. Could've had a distinctive face just like any white person does. Would a white person never stand out to you because it's a mainly white area?

An important to point to make.

I think they likely hid in plain sight because they were a local known. Someone seen as a local, and hadn't displayed any behavior to cause concern. We know Perps come in all sizes, shapes, colors, and sexes.

Amateur opinion and speculation

 

[Sweetsbeach]

All hispanic people don't look the same. Could've had a distinctive face just like any white person does. Would a white person never stand out to you because it's a mainly white area?

Of course not all Hispanic people look alike. But so far there hasn't been any description citing distinctive features.
On a side note, whenever a Parabon image is released and it's a white male with brown eyes I always think, greeeaaat...that really narrows it down (sarcasm).

 

[PunkCake]

Yes, agree with you that the only way this case is solved is if someone local that knows something speaks up.

LE has had a lot of time to sift through witness statements and track back CCTV but they don't appear able to find Dulce.

Unfortunately nothing you have found out locally that is speculation can be posted here. But if in the course of your travels you have an insight about any aspect of the case please do submit the tip to LE as they look to need all the help they can get here! You never know what info or insight might help!

Thanks for your eyewitness accounts of the area and the park. Its so helpful to trying to understand how this abduction happened.

Did you get the sense that Dulce could have made it into the woods by herself? The way you described the thickness of the brush and density of the woods made it seem unlikely that a 5 yo could make it through, but I wanted to make sure.

The statement about the dogs tracking Dulce scent for a long period of time was interesting and I wish we had more info about where exactly the dogs were taken.

Thank you, I'm happy to help.
And the woods, I'm personally and have never been someone who would play outside or go exploring. Only her family would know if that was in her personality to be adventurous. And as a young child, I think we all had a sense of invincibility and absentminded-ness when we're in
"play mode".

For an example, as an adult we aren't going to follow a kitten into the woods, but children may. That's how abductors who use luring tactics successfully take their victims.

 

[Iva]

These are the first thing I thought of, not certain it's exactly what Dulce chose as a snack that day, but they're pretty popular

8 Oz Cups | Philadelphia Water Ice Factory | (215) 533-0400

Definitely looks like you found the right brand to me. MOO

 

[afitzy]

Thank you, I'm happy to help.
And the woods, I'm personally and have never been someone who would play outside or go exploring. Only her family would know if that was in her personality to be adventurous. And as a young child, I think we all had a sense of invincibility and absentminded-ness when we're in
"play mode".

For an example, as an adult we aren't going to follow a kitten into the woods, but children may. That's how abductors who use luring tactics successfully take their victims.

Thanks! But the woods and brush looked dense and I was curious if you thought a 5 yo could make it through? The pictures didn't look like woods where even if the trees are close together a child might be able to walk around. But it looked like there were bushes and brush on the ground that would make passing through the woods a challenge. So hard to tell from the photos. Thanks for your 'birds eye view' of the area as its invaluable information.