OH OH - Brian Shaffer, 27, Columbus, 1 April 2006 - #2

[MatthewTyler]

I want to see it too. I wonder why they didn't make it available to the public if for no other reason than to try and ID the guy. I never heard he had been ID'd, only that they didn't think it was Brian.

I guess once they got the consensus that it wasn't Brian they decided to let it go. The guy likely wasn't doing anything suspicious, so they really had no use for him to be ID'd. I trust that his friends and family would be able to tell that it wasn't Brian, unless the footage was REALLY grainy.

 

[dotr]

This is unlikely, same as everything else, but have not seen it suggested before afaik - but - what if the person seen re-entering the bar, assumed to be Brian, was not in fact him?
So the video that was repeatedly scrutinized of everyone leaving the bar at the end of the evening, accurately indicated no sign of Brian, and the person who may have looked like Brian ( as Allykins mentioned upthread ) but not identified as him by his family, is because he only looked like or affected Brian's persona?
Hope that made sense, even if the scenario does not.
all speculation, imo.

Why will LE not reveal the 3 possible theories, how could it hurt the case at this point in time?

http://www.columbusmonthly.com/content/stories/2014/09/when-missing-persons-cases-go-cold.html
rbbm

Edwards spent hours upon hours scrutinizing the surveillance video that captured the image of Brian just before he vanished. He watched him enter the bar, step outside to talk with friends and re-enter a few minutes later.

Edwards saw it all on the video as Brian's friends said it happened. He watched it so many times he could confirm that every person who left the bar had also entered-he'd rewind the tape just to make sure. He wanted to rule out the possibility Brian had changed clothes or disguised himself in some way.

"I can say with 100-percent certainty that Brian Shaffer did not go back down that escalator," says Edwards, who now works on the division's physical abuse unit. Aside from leaping over the second-story balcony and landing on an awning below, there was only one other way Brian could have left the bar undetected by security cameras

"We have three different theories," says Sgt. Denise Reffitt of the Columbus police missing persons unit, "but none that we can discuss."

 

[MatthewTyler]

This is unlikely, same as everything else, but have not seen it suggested before afaik - but - what if the person seen re-entering the bar, assumed to be Brian, was not in fact him?
So the video that was repeatedly scrutinized of everyone leaving the bar at the end of the evening, accurately indicated no sign of Brian, and the person who may have looked like Brian ( as Allykins mentioned upthread ) but not identified as him by his family, is because he only looked like or affected Brian's persona?
Hope that made sense, even if the scenario does not.
all speculation, imo.

Do you mean that the person talking to the 2 girls and then re-entering the bar at that point was possibly not Brian? That must have been him because you can see on the video that it was the same guy that was riding the escalator with Clint and Meredith.

 

[dotr]

Video Includes recording of Brian speaking on the phone to his g.friend.
[video=youtube;Fz50sB89uG8]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fz50sB89uG8[/video]

 

[MatthewTyler]

I wonder if that phone call that they played was the last voicemail that Brian left Alexis, or if it was just any random one they chose to air. If it was the last, I find it interesting how he just said "alright...bye" instead of "See you later" or "see you when you get back". Not that it definitely means anything, just saying. Also I know that some people were saying he could have jumped from the balcony but the theory got shot down because of the height, but if you look at the video I think it could be possible to get down from there. Mad Mex has an entrance archway structure (seen at the 5:00 minute mark with the cactus on it) right below Ugly Tuna's balcony. Could he have jumped from the balcony onto the structure, then from there go down onto the ground?

 

[neesaki]

This is unlikely, same as everything else, but have not seen it suggested before afaik - but - what if the person seen re-entering the bar, assumed to be Brian, was not in fact him?
So the video that was repeatedly scrutinized of everyone leaving the bar at the end of the evening, accurately indicated no sign of Brian, and the person who may have looked like Brian ( as Allykins mentioned upthread ) but not identified as him by his family, is because he only looked like or affected Brian's persona?
Hope that made sense, even if the scenario does not.
all speculation, imo.

Why will LE not reveal the 3 possible theories, how could it hurt the case at this point in time?

http://www.columbusmonthly.com/content/stories/2014/09/when-missing-persons-cases-go-cold.html
rbbm

Interesting theory, one I've never thought of. Possibly misidentified as Brian? Hmmm....

 

[John.121]

I wonder if that phone call that they played was the last voicemail that Brian left Alexis, or if it was just any random one they chose to air. If it was the last, I find it interesting how he just said "alright...bye" instead of "See you later" or "see you when you get back". Not that it definitely means anything, just saying. Also I know that some people were saying he could have jumped from the balcony but the theory got shot down because of the height, but if you look at the video I think it could be possible to get down from there. Mad Mex has an entrance archway structure (seen at the 5:00 minute mark with the cactus on it) right below Ugly Tuna's balcony. Could he have jumped from the balcony onto the structure, then from there go down onto the ground?

Did they ever check the footage/cctv cameras from nearby establishments and business that would've covered that balcony? Surely it's captured on some kind of footage from one of the nearby places. It's not like Ugly Tuna is in the middle of nowhere. There are bars and buildings all around it. I agree about the height of the balcony, i'm the same height as Brian and I've jumped off balconies like that before. It doesn't even look difficult to climb down, especially for a taller more long legged person.

You'd think he would've been spotted though if he'd jumped considering the streets were apparently crawling with people at the time?..but who knows if he had jumped and been seen the people who saw it maybe never even gave it a second thought and are not even aware of who he is/was.

 

[MatthewTyler]

Did they ever check the footage/cctv cameras from nearby establishments and business that would've covered that balcony? Surely it's captured on some kind of footage from one of the nearby places. It's not like Ugly Tuna is in the middle of nowhere. There are bars and buildings all around it. I agree about the height of the balcony, i'm the same height as Brian and I've jumped off balconies like that before. It doesn't even look difficult to climb down, especially for a taller more long legged person.

You'd think he would've been spotted though if he'd jumped considering the streets were apparently crawling with people at the time?..but who knows if he had jumped and been seen the people who saw it maybe never even gave it a second thought and are not even aware of who he is/was.

I feel like in a college town, where there are always drunk patrons around, jumping off a balcony wouldn't really be given much thought. IF it happened (not saying for sure he did this) some nearby people probably laughed or rolled their eyes and then forgot about it. As for the cameras, I'm not sure how many cameras would actually be looking in the direction of the balcony. Once he got on the ground, it would be harder to locate him among the crowd. The outside cameras probably saw thousands of people that night, all clustered close together outside in the dark so it would definitely be harder to spot Brian in that footage if he WERE outside. Inside the building is obviously a lot easier to find him since it's less people and less congestion.

 

[Deleted member 155000]

Is there video footage on line of the guy leaving the bar that investigators thought might be Brian but the family didn't think it was him? I'd like to see it.

I don't think police ever released footage of the guy who left the next morning who family ruled out. I'd be interested in seeing it as well if it was.

In my opinion, if family saw it and said "no, it couldn't be him," then it probably wasn't. I have two brothers about the size of Brian and would feel very confident I could recognize them even in grainy footage. Or at least, even if the imagery was blurred, I would be able to identify if there was a possibility it could be them.

If family members were unsure, they would've said that, because they would want police to explore the lead if there was any chance of it being him.

I do put a lot of stock in what family think, though. And it's one reason I reserve a small amount of possibility for the unlikely event that Brian is alive. If my brothers disappeared, I would tell anyone who asked that beyond a shadow of a doubt, they would not leave by choice. I wouldn't even entertain that possibility. But it seems like several people in Brian's circles considered this a possibility. That speaks volumes to me.

 

[MatthewTyler]

I would tell anyone who asked that beyond a shadow of a doubt, they would not leave by choice. I wouldn't even entertain that possibility. But it seems like several people in Brian's circles considered this a possibility. That speaks volumes to me.

Well I believe anyone who thinks Brian left willingly only think so because of the recent (at the time) tragedy and stress he was under, and not because he was naturally the type of person to do so. Alexis has said by this point she doesn't believe he is alive, and I'm willing to bet Clint (unless he knows for sure one way or another) probably doesn't believe so either

 

[Raging Ranter]

Interesting theory, one I've never thought of. Possibly misidentified as Brian? Hmmm....

That's entirely possible. Difficult to say without seeing the video. Maybe the video is conclusive and clear enough to leave no doubt. But, if they've based their conclusion on less-than-perfect video, it is at least possible that they misidentified someone else as Brian. There is the chance that someone had on the same clothes as him, with a similar height, build, posture and appearance. Highly unlikely, but then vanishing from a night club without a trace without ever exiting the club is even more unlikely. Given the quality of most security video, I wonder just how confident they can be that it was him.

That tells us nothing of what happened or where he went, but at least would solve the immediate mystery of how he vanished seemingly without exiting the bar.

 

[neesaki]

I don't think police ever released footage of the guy who left the next morning who family ruled out. I'd be interested in seeing it as well if it was.

In my opinion, if family saw it and said "no, it couldn't be him," then it probably wasn't. I have two brothers about the size of Brian and would feel very confident I could recognize them even in grainy footage. Or at least, even if the imagery was blurred, I would be able to identify if there was a possibility it could be them.

If family members were unsure, they would've said that, because they would want police to explore the lead if there was any chance of it being him.

I do put a lot of stock in what family think, though. And it's one reason I reserve a small amount of possibility for the unlikely event that Brian is alive. If my brothers disappeared, I would tell anyone who asked that beyond a shadow of a doubt, they would not leave by choice. I wouldn't even entertain that possibility. But it seems like several people in Brian's circles considered this a possibility. That speaks volumes to me.

So, just to clarify, are you saying you believe it's a slight possibility that Brian left on his own? Again, just asking for clarification. And thank you so much for waying in. It's beyond volumes more than invaluable.

 

[MatthewTyler]

That's entirely possible. Difficult to say without seeing the video. Maybe the video is conclusive and clear enough to leave no doubt. But, if they've based their conclusion on less-than-perfect video, it is at least possible that they misidentified someone else as Brian. There is the chance that someone had on the same clothes as him, with a similar height, build, posture and appearance. Highly unlikely, but then vanishing from a night club without a trace without ever exiting the club is even more unlikely. Given the quality of most security video, I wonder just how confident they can be that it was him.

That tells us nothing of what happened or where he went, but at least would solve the immediate mystery of how he vanished seemingly without exiting the bar.

I'm sorry, I just don't see much plausibility with that theory. When you watch the 2 clips of security footage, one from him going up the escalator and the one of him talking to the 2 girls, you can pretty clearly tell it's the same guy. Brian. Plus the 2 girls confirmed that they did in fact speak to Brian. I MIGHT however believe that Brian could have blended into the crowd of people leaving the bar shortly after and was possibly missed. Many people probably have a similar physical appearance to Brian. He looks very typical white college 'bro' type. I can't say for certain what the footage looked like of everybody leaving, just that the cops were 100% sure everybody was accounted for going in and out, but you never know. He could have even ducked his head down or just hid so well within the crowd. I'd like to believe he just walked out and was missed, but nobody can say for sure without public access to all the footage

 

[Alleykins]

I'm sorry, I just don't see much plausibility with that theory. When you watch the 2 clips of security footage, one from him going up the escalator and the one of him talking to the 2 girls, you can pretty clearly tell it's the same guy. Brian. Plus the 2 girls confirmed that they did in fact speak to Brian. I MIGHT however believe that Brian could have blended into the crowd of people leaving the bar shortly after and was possibly missed. Many people probably have a similar physical appearance to Brian. He looks very typical white college 'bro' type. I can't say for certain what the footage looked like of everybody leaving, just that the cops were 100% sure everybody was accounted for going in and out, but you never know. He could have even ducked his head down or just hid so well within the crowd. I'd like to believe he just walked out and was missed, but nobody can say for sure without public access to all the footage

BBM - This is what I think happened, that it may have been a coincidence that he wasn't seen on the way out, but after that, I have no clue.

 

[John.121]

I wonder how many people were actually exiting the bar at that time. Was there hundreds of people exiting or just a few people left who were finishing their last drinks leaving in a neat, orderly kind of way? Apparently the detective who reviewed the tape over and over says he can say with 'absolute certainty' that Brian didn't exit through the escalators way. However, the footage from around that time doesn't seem to be great quality if the 2 clips of him entering and talking to the two women is anything to go by, and if there was crowds of people leaving bunched together you'd think it's completely possible he could have just been missed.

 

[ekardh]

Why do people think Clint was involved? There wasn't any motive for him to murder Brian and I can't see a plausible scenario. Brian was separated from him and Meredith. The surveillance backs that up. So, are people speculating that Clint did something to Brian inside the club, and somehow disposed of the body without anyone finding it? If this was a scenario where Clint gave Brian a ride home, and he was the last one to see him alive, that would arouse suspicion, but that wasn't the case. He helped the police with their initial inquiries and lawyered up at the recommendation of his legal counsel.

Brian was caught on CCTV entering the bar, but not filmed coming out, that means he either left through a side-exit or he's still there. I still wager that he's buried somewhere in the building, but why the cadaver dogs weren't able to sniff him out, I can't say. How soon did they check? And did they check all of the possible areas Brian might have crept into?

 

[Deleted member 155000]

Well I believe anyone who thinks Brian left willingly only think so because of the recent (at the time) tragedy and stress he was under, and not because he was naturally the type of person to do so. Alexis has said by this point she doesn't believe he is alive, and I'm willing to bet Clint (unless he knows for sure one way or another) probably doesn't believe so either

Yes, I do agree the tragedy is the main driver of this theory. But even with tragedy, I feel 100% confident I wouldn't suggest to or agree with reporters that my brothers could leave of their own accord.

What is different about Brian too is he had also said on his MySpace page that being a dr. was his side gig and he hoped to one day live on an island and play music. Friends said he sometimes made comments like this too and Alexis said he'd recently even thrown out let's run away together jokingly...

I leave room for the possibility he left on his own because of the combination of losing his mom and a possible misfit with his current life (maybe he didn't want to be a dr., live a conventional lifestyle, or follow through on people's expectations of him). But I mostly think it's wishful thinking on my part and everyone else's. It would really have to be a pretty pre-planned thing for him to escape the many eyes looking for him and somehow set up a separate life unrelated to his new identity.

It's more likely he met with harm and hasn't been discovered. Though I hope this is the exception rather than the rule.

 

[Deleted member 155000]

Why do people think Clint was involved? There wasn't any motive for him to murder Brian and I can't see a plausible scenario. Brian was separated from him and Meredith. The surveillance backs that up. So, are people speculating that Clint did something to Brian inside the club, and somehow disposed of the body without anyone finding it? If this was a scenario where Clint gave Brian a ride home, and he was the last one to see him alive, that would arouse suspicion, but that wasn't the case. He helped the police with their initial inquiries and lawyered up at the recommendation of his legal counsel.

Brian was caught on CCTV entering the bar, but not filmed coming out, that means he either left through a side-exit or he's still there. I still wager that he's buried somewhere in the building, but why the cadaver dogs weren't able to sniff him out, I can't say. How soon did they check? And did they check all of the possible areas Brian might have crept into?

Some people have said there was a history of tension between Brian and Clint. If you scroll back through the two threads, you'll find several theories people have presented which explain why some think Clint could have been involved.

 

[MatthewTyler]

. I still wager that he's buried somewhere in the building, but why the cadaver dogs weren't able to sniff him out, I can't say. How soon did they check? And did they check all of the possible areas Brian might have crept into?

I believe I read that they checked with the dogs that following Monday or Tuesday. So about 3 days after he went missing. I imagine they would have been pretty thorough and I can't imagine the construction area even being that big honestly.

 

[MatthewTyler]

What I'm also still curious about, as mentioned before, is what Brian was saying to those 2 girls. In the dateline video, Clint says that Brian was "doing his usual thing" and talking to those girls. Does 'usual thing' mean just going up to people and being social? Or did he mean that Brian had a history of being flirty with girls? That would seem rather strange since he was so in love with Alexis and was supposedly going to be proposing to her in Florida days later. Maybe Clint was trying to cover infidelity on Brian's part, or maybe he knew that Brian was unfaithful and was blackmailing him? Though kind of a stretch, since that would seem more like Brian making Clint disappear instead. I also don't believe Clint was directly involved, but I can't shake the suspicion that he knows more about Brian than he made public. Or Perhaps Brian went to meet a girl, ran into trouble with her bf and Clint just kept quiet as to not hurt Alexis? As I mentioned earlier in the thread, Brian and Clint went to NYC together so they had to be pretty close plus they were former roommates.