OR - 6 women found dead near Portland, most in secluded, wooded area, Feb 19 - May 8, 2023 *POI of 4*

[Seekingtruth08]

Here is the statistics of missing people per state.

Missing Persons by State 2023 - Wisevoter

Every year hundreds of thousands of people are reported missing in the United States. California tops the list with 2,133 missing persons reported, followed by Florida with 1,252 and Texas with 1,246. These states have the largest populations in the US, which may contribute to the higher number...

wisevoter.com

While the general numbers reflect the population, there are subsection. According to one of them, the rate of missing people in OR is strikingly high. When some indices are out of proportion to the state population, it is reasonable to ask what additional factors could be involved. If a higher than usual statistics in neonatal mortality in a NICU made people look into human factor (Lucy Letby's case) I can't see why the same principle is not applicable to the state with strikingly high rate of disappearance.

This makes me want to write a paper and publish it....thanks for the idea.

 

[Beth11311]

What's a dual diagnosis unit?

Dual diagnosis is a reference to mental health and substance abuse, as they often occur together. So, a unit with dual diagnosis would likely be one that could handle both mental health issues and addiction.

 

[dub]

Apologies in advance if this gets lengthy...

I was thinking more today about how LE (and us here) might go about narrowing down a pool of suspects in this case.

It occurred to me that, in the absence of DNA or something, the easiest case to solve should be AR's, because Eagle Creek is by far the most important location--it's a place not all that many people know well, and whoever dumped AR's body there almost certainly does.

So first I'm looking at people who:
a.) have lived or worked in Eagle Creek
b.) have close family or friends who have lived there

I'm going to run some hypothetical numbers, so again, apologies in advance if that's not your thing. This is just a model, and some of the numbers are estimations, so please let me know if you think any are significantly off--I am going to try to compensate for that and be as conservative as possible in narrowing this down.

Based on the population of Portland Metro and Eagle Creek itself (I can get more detailed on how I landed here, but am skipping the "math" in this post), I'd estimate that something like 1 in 50 people in the metro area have a close connection there, based on the parameters above. That's 44,000 people.

But there are probably a lot that I am missing, who have connections for other reasons, so let's add another 25,000. 69K. That's a lot of people but don't worry, these numbers get real small real fast.

I am also prioritizing people who have committed violent and/or sex crimes against vulnerable populations.

I have no idea how to calculate that, but I don't think it's out of line to guess it's no more than 1 in 500. (I sincerely hope it's less than that, and it very well could be, but that's what we're going with). I highly doubt that whoever committed these crimes, particularly if they are related, hasn't done something along the same lines before.


So we divide 69K by 500.
Then divide that in half, because it's very likely the killer is male.
Then divide it in half again, because there is at least half the metro area where it's very unlikely the killer lives.


By this model, that gives us 35 people. Thirty five in the entire metro area who should be at the absolute top of the suspect list, without taking other factors (age, etc.) into consideration that could narrow it down further.

Even if you bump that 25,000 addition to 100,000, it's STILL only 72 people that should be given top priority consideration.

Now, identifying those people is an entirely different matter. It's pretty hard from our end, but I am sure LE could wrangle and check out at least some of them.

The point is, solving this case probably isn't rocket science, as long as it's approached from the right angle.

Thanks for listening to my ted talk.

 

[Seekingtruth08]

Apologies in advance if this gets lengthy...

I was thinking more today about how LE (and us here) might go about narrowing down a pool of suspects in this case.

It occurred to me that, in the absence of DNA or something, the easiest case to solve should be AR's, because Eagle Creek is by far the most important location--it's a place not all that many people know well, and whoever dumped AR's body there almost certainly does.

So first I'm looking at people who:
a.) have lived or worked in Eagle Creek
b.) have close family or friends who have lived there

I'm going to run some hypothetical numbers, so again, apologies in advance if that's not your thing. This is just a model, and some of the numbers are estimations, so please let me know if you think any are significantly off--I am going to try to compensate for that and be as conservative as possible in narrowing this down.

Based on the population of Portland Metro and Eagle Creek itself (I can get more detailed on how I landed here, but am skipping the "math" in this post), I'd estimate that something like 1 in 50 people in the metro area have a close connection there, based on the parameters above. That's 44,000 people.

But there are probably a lot that I am missing, who have connections for other reasons, so let's add another 25,000. 69K. That's a lot of people but don't worry, these numbers get real small real fast.

I am also prioritizing people who have committed violent and/or sex crimes against vulnerable populations.

I have no idea how to calculate that, but I don't think it's out of line to guess it's no more than 1 in 500. (I sincerely hope it's less than that, and it very well could be, but that's what we're going with). I highly doubt that whoever committed these crimes, particularly if they are related, hasn't done something along the same lines before.


So we divide 69K by 500.
Then divide that in half, because it's very likely the killer is male.
Then divide it in half again, because there is at least half the metro area where it's very unlikely the killer lives.


By this model, that gives us 35 people. Thirty five in the entire metro area who should be at the absolute top of the suspect list, without taking other factors (age, etc.) into consideration that could narrow it down further.

Even if you bump that 25,000 addition to 100,000, it's STILL only 72 people that should be given top priority consideration.

Now, identifying those people is an entirely different matter. It's pretty hard from our end, but I am sure LE could wrangle and check out at least some of them.

The point is, solving this case probably isn't rocket science, as long as it's approached from the right angle.

Thanks for listening to my ted talk.

Where was Ashley real from, born, raised, and where did she live? Im guessing by websleuths standards we cant discuss specific people like who she dated etc? In researching, I saw bridget was put from where she lived or grew up at. Her family lives there I believe and many people seem to know her from that area. I saw that in a scanner group I think.

 

[Seekingtruth08]

Apologies in advance if this gets lengthy...

I was thinking more today about how LE (and us here) might go about narrowing down a pool of suspects in this case.

It occurred to me that, in the absence of DNA or something, the easiest case to solve should be AR's, because Eagle Creek is by far the most important location--it's a place not all that many people know well, and whoever dumped AR's body there almost certainly does.

So first I'm looking at people who:
a.) have lived or worked in Eagle Creek
b.) have close family or friends who have lived there

I'm going to run some hypothetical numbers, so again, apologies in advance if that's not your thing. This is just a model, and some of the numbers are estimations, so please let me know if you think any are significantly off--I am going to try to compensate for that and be as conservative as possible in narrowing this down.

Based on the population of Portland Metro and Eagle Creek itself (I can get more detailed on how I landed here, but am skipping the "math" in this post), I'd estimate that something like 1 in 50 people in the metro area have a close connection there, based on the parameters above. That's 44,000 people.

But there are probably a lot that I am missing, who have connections for other reasons, so let's add another 25,000. 69K. That's a lot of people but don't worry, these numbers get real small real fast.

I am also prioritizing people who have committed violent and/or sex crimes against vulnerable populations.

I have no idea how to calculate that, but I don't think it's out of line to guess it's no more than 1 in 500. (I sincerely hope it's less than that, and it very well could be, but that's what we're going with). I highly doubt that whoever committed these crimes, particularly if they are related, hasn't done something along the same lines before.


So we divide 69K by 500.
Then divide that in half, because it's very likely the killer is male.
Then divide it in half again, because there is at least half the metro area where it's very unlikely the killer lives.


By this model, that gives us 35 people. Thirty five in the entire metro area who should be at the absolute top of the suspect list, without taking other factors (age, etc.) into consideration that could narrow it down further.

Even if you bump that 25,000 addition to 100,000, it's STILL only 72 people that should be given top priority consideration.

Now, identifying those people is an entirely different matter. It's pretty hard from our end, but I am sure LE could wrangle and check out at least some of them.

The point is, solving this case probably isn't rocket science, as long as it's approached from the right angle.

Thanks for listening to my ted talk.

Are you just referencing those who have been caught for those crimes or those not caught as well? What type of sex crimes are we talking? Most people don't know or care about consent, we weren't taught it or emphasized it 20 years ago; and most people that make a move on someone don't ask beforehand and it can technically be a sex crime. Also there's a Grey area where when you visit a sworker you may assume consent is given and not ask. And then theres partner sex crime ie boyfriend r@pes girlfriend. Or are we referring to strangers that go after those vulnerable? I think significant others and close friends would be top people of interest in these cases, included in those 35 people.

 

[SmartBirdie]

Here is the statistics of missing people per state.

Missing Persons by State 2023 - Wisevoter

Every year hundreds of thousands of people are reported missing in the United States. California tops the list with 2,133 missing persons reported, followed by Florida with 1,252 and Texas with 1,246. These states have the largest populations in the US, which may contribute to the higher number...

wisevoter.com

While the general numbers reflect the population, there are subsection. According to one of them, the rate of missing people in OR is strikingly high. When some indices are out of proportion to the state population, it is reasonable to ask what additional factors could be involved. If a higher than usual statistics in neonatal mortality in a NICU made people look into human factor (Lucy Letby's case) I can't see why the same principle is not applicable to the state with strikingly high rate of disappearance.

CA and FL and NV have the same kinds disappearances.

 

[SmartBirdie]

What's a dual diagnosis unit?

Sometimes it's about addiction with mental illness. So the Cheese Cake Factory in SE Portland, a part of Providence Health Care Systems covers this in their detox.

* I lived in that area for about 23 years.

 

[SmartBirdie]

I’ve been looking at the geography in a little different way this morning.

I’ve previously had this notion that the epicenter of the dump sites—the center of the circle—is in Milwaukie.

In the strictest sense, that isn’t true, but I rationalized it because a.) that area is also central to most of the women’s known activity, and b.) with that point in the center, the circle passes directly through downtown Salem, so it made sense that BW would be slightly outside of it.

But the true center of the circle is right around where 5 and 205 intersect in Tualatin. And what I learned that might make that relevant is Tualatin is actually in Washington county, not Clackamas as I thought.

In other words, the actual center of the dump sites falls, just barely, in the one county in the metro area without any known bodies. So I now think it’s conceivable that the killer lives in that area, and is someone who is acutely aware of jurisdictional issues.

For visual reference, the area I’m talking about is just north of the 5 symbol on this map.

My ESP says the killer lives a ways(25 mi-80 mi)west of Vancouver, WA. And I lived in Milwaukie for several years, and it's not known for a lot of crime. However, N. Portland and Gresham area very dangerous areas with gun fire frequently.

 

[dub]

Are you just referencing those who have been caught for those crimes or those not caught as well? What type of sex crimes are we talking? Most people don't know or care about consent, we weren't taught it or emphasized it 20 years ago; and most people that make a move on someone don't ask beforehand and it can technically be a sex crime. Also there's a Grey area where when you visit a sworker you may assume consent is given and not ask. And then theres partner sex crime ie boyfriend r@pes girlfriend. Or are we referring to strangers that go after those vulnerable? I think significant others and close friends would be top people of interest in these cases, included in those 35 people.

I’m really glad you brought this up, I could have sworn I clarified this in the post but upon rereading apparently I didn’t.

That “1 in 500” is considering random strangers attacking the vulnerable, and I am including both those who have been caught and those who haven’t.

Eta: I would also include in the “stranger” category an acquaintance that the victim had met within hours of the attack, but only for crimes significantly beyond a lack of consent clarification.

 

[Glimma0927]

This makes me want to write a paper and publish it....thanks for the idea.

I would be curious to see what these numbers look like in terms of per capita rates, because population matters. It's an easy enough calculation (just look up population data for the states and do a little math), but if you're going to write a paper about it, I'll let you crunch the numbers. ;-)

Edit: Never mind. I see that there's a "Rate" column on the table so the math's been done. Also, it's not clear whether these are average annual cases or total cases?

 

[Charlot123]

What's a dual diagnosis unit?

It is a unit in a psychiatric hospital taking care of people suffering from mental illness and substance abuse.

 

[Charlot123]

Yes

CA and FL and NV have the same kinds disappearances.

But, there are lots of explanations provided for California. Border state, mixed population, gangs, whatnot. Everything preparing us to not be surprised by the numbers. However, these are raw numbers. When I googled the population of California and divided the number of disappeared by the population, and then did the same for Oregon, Oregon was over twice as high.
Washington was also disproportionately high. And there are no factors that should play a role for Oregon or Washington, except for "Ted Bundy lived here", or "Green River killer lived here", but this is not convincing. Maybe "farmland mentality", but we have to discuss it.

 

[Charlot123]

I would be curious to see what these numbers look like in terms of per capita rates, because population matters. It's an easy enough calculation (just look up population data for the states and do a little math), but if you're going to write a paper about it, I'll let you crunch the numbers. ;-)

Edit: Never mind. I see that there's a "Rate" column on the table so the math's been done. Also, it's not clear whether these are average annual cases or total cases?

I googled "disappearances in 2023" and got this.

 

[medic323]

Yes, all of the sites are easily off 205. I think the killer lives on the east side, not far from 205. There are plenty of spots that would be perfect for concealing a body on the west side and yet all of these are linked to the east side. Even the sites in Ridgefield and Polk county are easily accessible from I205. I think that’s one of the biggest connections I can see in this case at this time other than some of the girls possibly being part of more vulnerable populations. That could change further down the road.

MOO

I totally agree! I think he is too afraid of crossing any of the bridges with his victims in the car.

I also feel like JS may have been a spur-of-the-moment/anger-induced killing. Hence the violent COD as opposed to the others(assuming they weren't such apparent blunt force trauma). Then he probably panicked and realized he needed to dump her before returning over the bridges to Portland.

Then the question is, why was he in Clark county, and what set him off? Work? A girlfriend?

 

[Seekingtruth08]

Moving a body that far is unusual, but I do think that’s what is happening. (And I am mostly referencing JS, CP and BW here, as those are the three to me that are almost definitely related).

Which makes a pretty weird dichotomy—clearly the killer is comfortable enough to move bodies long distances, but the actual dump sites, from what I can tell, are not all that concealed and honestly kind of lazy. Makes me wonder if the killer is smaller in stature and/or in somewhat poor health.

And to reference your previous post, what you noted about JS location I think is true of all three (and probably true of AR too): there were MUCH better dump sites close by in each of those areas, which suggests to me that he had only a basic familiarity with the locations.

which 3?

 

[Seekingtruth08]

Our killer wants to get out of the area ASAP. Not to be seen there. I wonder if there are any cameras in the area?

there are freeway cameras, not many people in ridgefield. but who knows what time this happened at and what day.

 

[Seekingtruth08]

The odd thing about KS is that she was found in a much more populated area than any of the others, but had the longest gap between going missing and being found. So maybe she was in fact more concealed/further off the road than the others.

This is a big part of why I lean away from KS being related—the killer is going to move bodies way further away, but at the same time conceal them LESS? Maybe, but it doesn’t really track for me.

But she could be related, and if she is I think what you suggest is exactly right.

Charity was found in a culvert, that means drainage ditch off the road. which means hard to see! concealed.

 

[Seekingtruth08]

So is there a serial killer or not? I'm confused. There were articles earlier in the thread that said PPB say they aren't connected while there are other articles saying police are looking to see if they're connected. Did I miss something? I did only skim this thread so I could just be an idiot. JMO

they said not connected "at this time" (which means it can change) and they still have investigation to do with relation to these cases.

 

[chaz]

Traffic cams in and around Portland:

Road & Weather Conditions Map | TripCheck - Oregon Traveler Information

The TripCheck website provides roadside camera images and detailed information about Oregon road traffic congestion, incidents, weather conditions, services and commercial vehicle restrictions and registration.

tripcheck.com

 

[TheHighestPriestess]

I don’t need to look at a road map, I grew up in Portland. I lived in Seattle for several years too, I know the region well.

I will be straight up shocked if the killer currently lives anywhere besides the east side of Portland or its eastern burbs. But he may not be originally from there and definitely could be responsible for similar murders elsewhere.

From the area and I 100% agree. East side, familiar with I-205 and the SE Portland area (if its the same person) IMO