RubyRed
"Keep on Truckin"
- Joined
- Jan 26, 2010
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I have a question about something on the scanner thread, where can I ask it?
On the scanner thread.
I have a question about something on the scanner thread, where can I ask it?
Four BIG things that have stuck in my craw:
1) Kyron did not leave school on his own without any reason, or convincing or luring. Finally, today it's confirmed for us that LE knows this.
2) This was a hectic and abnormal school day of happy hustle-bustle visitors going in and out of this little school for special events. It was widely known in the school community, and posted on the school external billboard at the end of the school year.
This is a generally acceptable fact of the day of Kyrons disappearance.
The third item that sticks in my craw, that has not yet been confirmed for us, but I really think we can make a very fair assumption based on inductive reasoning. And that is:
3) There was clear breach in communications between Kyrons caretakers.
And the 4th thing that sticks in my craw is more the broad brush of the perfect storm created by points 1, 2, and 3. I believe perfect storm coincidences are rare. But
4) Points 1, 2 and 3 create the perfect storm.
The Breach.
How is it that Kyron's teacher(s) were not "missing" Kyron? They knew he was at school that morning at the science fair.
A bit later, during formal class attendance, he was not there. Kyron's teacher(s) marked him absent. AND, the teacher(s) was clearly not concerned about the fact that Kyron was not there.
A 7 year old, and they weren't concerned. Clearly, they had a reason not to be concerned that Kyron had been there earlier, but now was not there. Using inductive reasoning (thanks Sherlock) Kyron's absence made sense to them. It was expected/anticipated.
LE knows why the teacher(s) were not concerned. They knew the evening Kyron disappeared.
Terri stood at the bus stop expecting Kyron to get off the bus. Kyron's absence from school was a shock to her. Why? Because Terri brought Kyron to school and left him there, watched him walk down the hall to his class and his teacher(s) who would take care of him that day as usual. Terri expected Kyron would have a normal (well, more fun than normal) day at school.
Kyron's teacher(s) saw Kyron early on but did not expect him to be in class at attendance time. No alarms went off for the teacher(s) when 7 year old Kyron was not there. Terri left school certain Kyron's teacher(s) would take care of him as they had every day of the school year.
What caused such different expectations about where Kyron was supposed to be all day completely different expectations between Terri and the Teacher(s)? Something happened to cause that breach of communication between those responsible for Kyron.
This breach is an important investigation focal point, because therein lies the breakdown in Kyron's security system. This breakdown created a huge gap in time for alerting about Kyron's disappearance. This breakdown created opportunity. This breakdown created opportunity on an opportune day. It was a key event in the perfect storm set-up for the vanishing of Kryon.
I am confident that LE knows that the communication breach is an important question to answer for Kyrons investigation and I suspect they have their answer now.
(We can note, 10 days into the investigation, that the schools response has been to keep the teacher in the classroom. Not even temporarily with a vacation or paid leave. No disciplinary action evident there. No apparent need to CYA on this point for the school.)
The Perfect Storm.
What an incredible coincidence that the EXACT child whose caretakers had a breach/misunderstanding - in the parent-teacher expectation/communication - that EXACT busy morning is the EXACT child that was somehow lured away.
Do you believe in coincidences such as this? Should we do the math? Statistically speaking, what are the odds where the initial event of a breach of communications with regard to ONE child in a contained and secured system of 224 children leads to the vanishing event of that EXACT ONE child on this EXACT special school event calendar day of approx. 185 school days?
Thats a probability problem (lol) and I cant remember exactly how to calculate it. Never-the-less, its rather slim odds.
Am I over-thinking this? I appreciate just being able to write down this one thing that sticks in my craw after all this time.
At 10 days, and the declaration of a criminal investigation, I am left asking myself, very logically: Do I believe in coincidences? And then: What are the odds?
Today my conclusion is: Kyron was specifically the target. And, IMO, this was a planned Kyron abduction. And LEs just gotta know this.
This is all just me thinking-out-loud, noodling, and somewhere in there is my humble opinion with regard to parent-teacher communication protocol for 7 year olds and the value of statistical reasoning when assessing coincidences. I reserve, as always, the right to change my opinion tomorrow.
raeann please edit your post as i did mine, thanks.
No, you're not over-thinking it, in fact...
You seem to be assuming the reason the teacher's alarm bells didn't go off was a good one(?)
Very nice assessment, Emma
The Perfect Storm.
What an incredible coincidence that the EXACT child whose caretakers had a breach/misunderstanding - in the parent-teacher expectation/communication - that EXACT busy morning is the EXACT child that was somehow lured away.
Do you believe in coincidences such as this? Should we do the math? Statistically speaking, what are the odds where the initial event of a breach of communications with regard to ONE child in a contained and secured system of 224 children leads to the vanishing event of that EXACT ONE child on this EXACT special school event calendar day of approx. 185 school days?
Thats a probability problem (lol) and I cant remember exactly how to calculate it. Never-the-less, its rather slim odds.
Am I over-thinking this? I appreciate just being able to write down this one thing that sticks in my craw after all this time.
At 10 days, and the declaration of a criminal investigation, I am left asking myself, very logically: Do I believe in coincidences? And then: What are the odds?
Today my conclusion is: Kyron was specifically the target. And, IMO, this was a planned Kyron abduction. And LEs just gotta know this.
Good post EMMA. I guess the next logical question would be who delivered the information to the teachers that made them not concerned that Kyron was absent and what that information was?
If the teacher KNEW Kyron was there in the morning and was unconcerned about why he left, it could only have been because someone informed her why Kyron was not there. If this were the case, they'd have their POI. Since we have not heard that someone falsely told the teacher why Kyron was not at school, I don't believe your #3 is anything more than the teacher absentmindedly did not note Kyron's presence in the early confusing morning hour. She never thought about it.
Four BIG things that have stuck in my craw:
1) Kyron did not leave school on his own without any reason, or convincing or luring. Finally, today it's confirmed for us that LE knows this.
2) This was a hectic and abnormal school day of happy hustle-bustle visitors going in and out of this little school for special events. It was widely known in the school community, and posted on the school external billboard at the end of the school year.
This is a generally acceptable fact of the day of Kyron’s disappearance.
The third item that sticks in my craw, that has not yet been confirmed for us, but I really think we can make a very fair assumption based on inductive reasoning. And that is:
3) There was clear breach in communications between Kyron’s caretakers.
And the 4th thing that sticks in my craw is more the broad brush of the perfect storm created by points 1, 2, and 3. I believe “perfect storm coincidences” are rare. But…
4) Points 1, 2 and 3 create “the perfect storm”.
The Breach.
How is it that Kyron's teacher(s) were not "missing" Kyron? They knew he was at school that morning at the science fair.
A bit later, during formal class attendance, he was not there. Kyron's teacher(s) marked him absent. AND, the teacher(s) was clearly not concerned about the fact that Kyron was not there.
A 7 year old, and they weren't concerned. Clearly, they had a reason not to be concerned that Kyron had been there earlier, but now was not there. Using inductive reasoning (thanks Sherlock) Kyron's absence made sense to them. It was expected/anticipated.
LE knows why the teacher(s) were not concerned. They knew the evening Kyron disappeared.
Terri stood at the bus stop expecting Kyron to get off the bus. Kyron's absence from school was a shock to her. Why? Because Terri brought Kyron to school and left him there, watched him walk down the hall to his class and his teacher(s) who would take care of him that day as usual. Terri expected Kyron would have a normal (well, more fun than normal) day at school.
Kyron's teacher(s) saw Kyron early on but did not expect him to be in class at attendance time. No alarms went off for the teacher(s) when 7 year old Kyron was not there. Terri left school certain Kyron's teacher(s) would take care of him as they had every day of the school year.
What caused such different expectations about where Kyron was supposed to be all day – completely different expectations between Terri and the Teacher(s)? Something happened to cause that breach of communication between those responsible for Kyron.
This breach is an important investigation focal point, because therein lies the breakdown in Kyron's security system. This breakdown created a huge gap in time for alerting about Kyron's disappearance. This breakdown created opportunity. This breakdown created opportunity on an opportune day. It was a key event in the perfect storm set-up for the vanishing of Kryon.
I am confident that LE knows that the communication breach is an important question to answer for Kyron’s investigation and I suspect they have their answer now.
(We can note, 10 days into the investigation, that the school’s response has been to keep the teacher in the classroom. Not even temporarily with a vacation or paid leave. No disciplinary action evident there. No apparent need to CYA on this point for the school.)
The Perfect Storm.
What an incredible coincidence that the EXACT child whose caretakers had a breach/misunderstanding - in the parent-teacher expectation/communication - that EXACT busy morning is the EXACT child that was somehow lured away.
Do you believe in coincidences such as this? Should we do the math? Statistically speaking, what are the odds where the initial event of a breach of communications with regard to ONE child in a contained and secured system of 224 children leads to the vanishing event of that EXACT ONE child on this EXACT special school event calendar day of approx. 185 school days?
That’s a probability problem (lol) and I can’t remember exactly how to calculate it. Never-the-less, it’s rather slim odds.
Am I over-thinking this? I appreciate just being able to write down this one thing that sticks in my craw after all this time.
At 10 days, and the declaration of a criminal investigation, I am left asking myself, very logically: Do I believe in coincidences? And then: What are the odds?
Today my conclusion is: Kyron was specifically the target. And, IMO, this was a planned Kyron abduction. And LE’s just gotta know this.
This is all just me thinking-out-loud, noodling, and somewhere in there is my humble opinion with regard to parent-teacher communication protocol for 7 year olds and the value of statistical reasoning when assessing coincidences. I reserve, as always, the right to change my opinion tomorrow.
What an amazing synopsis...
I am wondering one thing: I intend no disrespect to the teacher, or to anyone working at the school, but is it also possible that the teacher (or someone else) dropped the ball? In other words, that there was not quite the logical process you describe, but perhaps a lapse, a mistake, a mistake like I make at work everyday (luckily I deal with papers and not children...)
This is my second post on WS!
Was it ever verified that Kyron was supposed to be in the talent show?
Hi BeanE.
Yes. I'm assuming above that this is a teacher in a school with a 20 kid per teacher ratio and she knows her students. I'm assuming she knew Kyron was there in the AM with his project and his mother, as that's what we've been told. I'm assuming she then marked him absent without alarm for a good reason.
I am willing to say it's possible she didn't have good reason. It's possible her reasoning was faulty or based on faulty information from someone such as a paraprofessional, teacher's aide, other volunteer. What's NOT possible is that she didn't notice Kyron was NOT there, after she noticed he WAS there.
Either way, my thought would be - it's still a perfect storm, and Kyron was the target.
Oh, and I should have added that if Kyron was the target, (and LE knows this), then, it would follow that this might be considered an isolated incident.
S Finch....I completely agree that LE is going to solve this case. Their every statement and action tells me that they know a lot more than us. I feel sad after this amount of time, that it will not have the happy outcome I pray for. But then... I think of Shaun Hornbeck. I keep going back to Kyron being a SECOND grader - that is really young! Either it was a terrible tragic event in the family - or it was targeted, IMHO. I sit on the fence as to which. Past experience can honestly point me in both directions, but the press conference by the parents bothered me - don't know why - it just did. I hope I stand a chance to be taught a new lesson in this case, and can learn to see thru less jaded eyes.
"The fair happened early Friday; Kyron was also scheduled to take part in the school talent show that afternoon, but he never made it there."
http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2010/06/clinging_to_hope_on_summers_cu.html